Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

David T C Davies Excerpts

Tuesday 14th July 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Michael Meacher (Oldham West and Royton) (Lab)]

It falls to me to comment on the excellent maiden speeches that we have just listened to. The hon. Member for Kensington (Victoria Borwick) made a lovely, warm and engaging speech, with some generous recollections of her predecessor. She need not feel trepidation in following him. We will all remember the emotional and feeling way in which she talked about carers and the disabled. She will make a clear contribution to the House in that regard.

The hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Mhairi Black) made a remarkably confident, relaxed, witty and effective speech. It is not often that a maiden speech in this House makes a strong political case, but she certainly got away with it. I liked her distinction between weathercocks and signposts, with which I wholeheartedly agreed. I think that we will hear a great deal more from the hon. Lady in future debates in this House.

I congratulate the hon. Member for Brecon and Radnorshire (Chris Davies), who again made a warm and generous speech about his first recollections in this place. I am not sure whether his speeches will remain so generous, not least given his early contact with the Whip. It is nice that in some ways, this place reminds him of Wales, his constituency and his roots. I very much hope that he will continue to reflect those things, and I wish him well.

Turning to the debate, all the hoo-hah about the Budget has centred on the £9 so-called living wage in 2020, even though the living wage in London is already £9.35. It is therefore not a living wage at all, but a slightly revamped minimum wage. Nevertheless, it is the macroeconomics of the Budget that really matter—and they are unreservedly depressing. If this is such a wonderful economic recovery, as we are constantly being told, why are average wages still 6% below their pre-crash level seven years ago? Why was the growth rate in the last quarter—the first of this year—just 0.4%, with an annual rate of just 1.5%? Why has productivity been flat for the past five years?

[David T. C. Davies (Monmouth) (Con)]

Clearly we would all like to see even higher growth rates, but does the right hon. Gentleman not acknowledge that we currently have the highest growth rate in the G7 and that that is a good thing?

[Mr Meacher]

I would like to ask the hon. Gentleman—although I am not inviting him to come back in—how he would explain the fact that in the latest quarter the growth rate was 0.4%, up from 0.3%. In the last three quarters it has gone down from 0.9% to 0.6%, and then to 0.3% or 0.4%. It was clearly a short-term growth surge, which is now fading.

We all regard productivity as crucial, but the UK’s investment as a percentage of GDP is now among the lowest in the world at barely 14%. By the time depreciation is netted off the growth figure, we are actually down at just 2.5%, which hardly even keeps up with our rising population.

Why does the OBR’s Budget report forecast a never-ending decline in Britain’s share of world exports, even compared with 2014, when this country experienced the biggest proportionate balance of payments current account decline since 1830? Why have the Government squeezed the economy so hard that they are now looking to a steep rise in household borrowing as the main source of future demand? Dangerously, the borrowing level already exceeds £2 trillion and may well be the source of the next economic crisis.

For all those reasons, the Chancellor’s boasts about the state of the economy do not bear even superficial scrutiny. Nor is his explanation of the cause of the economic crisis any more truthful. He continually lambasts the last Labour Government for overspending, but their economic record actually shows the opposite. The largest budget deficit under the Blair and Brown Governments in the 11 years from 1997 to 2008, before the crash, was 3.3% of GDP. The Thatcher and Major Governments ratcheted up budget deficits in excess of that in 10 of their 18 years. Who were the profligate ones? It was not Labour.

Then there is the question of which party has handled better the enormous rise in the deficit, caused by the bankers and the international recession. Again, it is valuable to look at the economic record. Alistair Darling, the last Labour Chancellor, gave the economy a big fiscal stimulus worth nearly 5% of GDP, allowing the automatic stabilisers to work and bringing forward public investment projects worth more than £30 billion.