Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Debate between David Rutley and George Kerevan

Tuesday 22nd March 2016 Commons Chamber

[George Kerevan]

I could not agree more with all three points, so I will just accept them.

The Red Book also shows that public sector net investment—capital investment in the public sector—is set to fall for the next four years. I have to ask Conservative Members this question. With industry in trouble and manufacturing contracting, as it has done in the past quarter, how will it help productivity if we have to cut public sector net investment in the capital side of the economy in order for the Chancellor to meet his rendezvous with destiny in 2020 and have his budget surplus? We need investment in capital in order to have productivity—that is where it comes from.

It is interesting to see what the OBR thinks we will have to do in order to get the books to balance. It believes that UK private sector business investment will have to make up the difference. It believes that private business investment will come to the rescue and contribute a quarter of the expenditure contribution to GDP growth in the period to 2020 in order to achieve the Chancellor’s fabled budget surplus. So, to make all the sums work, there has to be growth. Where is the growth coming from? According to the OBR, a quarter of all the potential expenditure in the economy between now and 2020 has to come from business investment. [Interruption.] Bear with me as I go through the numbers, because they are important. According to the OBR, business will have to contribute 0.6 percentage points each year to GDP in order for the economy to grow sufficiently to deliver the taxes to enable the Chancellor’s budget to come into balance.

There is only one problem. Historically, from 1990 to 2008—that is, throughout the boom period—the level of investment that British business managed to achieve as a percentage of GDP annually was 0.3, which is precisely half what the OBR thinks that business will have to invest between now and 2020 if the Chancellor’s numbers are to work. That is not going to happen.

[David Rutley (Macclesfield) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman says that the Chancellor lacks strategy, but that is clearly not the case. He was clearly not listening to the same Budget speech that I was listening to. That speech included supply-side measures, with business taxes going down and infrastructure being improved. We are seeing massive Government investment in the northern powerhouse to tackle the challenges, and private sector investment is coming in on the back of it, including £1 billion of investment in Manchester airport over the next 10 years. Is not that the sort of leverage that the Government should be seeking?

[George Kerevan]

If the hon. Gentleman had been listening carefully instead of following his script, he would understand that I am in favour of all the supply-side measures that we can get, because that is how we get growth. I am simply pointing out that the Budget figures that we have been presented with in the Red Book, alongside the OBR’s independent analysis, suggest that business investment will have to be double the level of its historical average, at a time when the global economy is slowing, in order for the Budget numbers to work. That is not going to happen.

The hon. Member for Macclesfield (David Rutley) made a reasonable point, however, and I shall follow on from it by asking: how do we boost business investment? The Budget includes a cut in corporation tax, yet our rate is already the lowest in the G20. How can a further cut produce any more inward investment? The incentive is already the biggest it is going to be, so cutting it even more at the margins will not increase incentive. That will just waste funds. Even with that—I have raised this in the House before—because there is so little outlet for investment at the moment, much of companies’ profits from reduced corporation tax is going into share buy-backs, which is a complete waste of time because it does not add to productivity.

The other tax issue in the Budget is the cut in capital gains tax. There is an argument for cutting capital gains tax, but here’s the point: which Chancellor raised capital gains tax in 2010? It was the Chancellor who is sitting there. Where is the long-term plan in raising it and then lowering it? The confusion of signals is exactly why businesses are not investing. They do not know what taxes will be from one Budget to another, which, at the moment, is every three months. [Interruption.]

[David Rutley]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for giving way. I was not seeking to make a point, but I will now. The Chancellor has clearly demonstrated that he has his public finances under control—[Interruption.] The deficit is massively down and he is now in a position to take forward the changes to which the hon. Member for East Lothian (George Kerevan) refers.

Trade, Exports, Innovation and Productivity

Debate between David Rutley and George Kerevan

Wednesday 13th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[George Kerevan]

I take the hon. Gentleman’s general point. I do not gainsay a number of the micro-decisions that the Government have taken, but we are not seeing the wood for the trees. Let us understand why we cannot get more investment into the manufacturing industry, and why the whole tenor of the economy is anti-export. It goes to the heart of how the Chancellor has conceived his job. He tells us that we have growth, but where has that growth come from in the past six years? It has come from pumping up domestic consumption, not from investment or selling abroad. Where does that extra consumption come from? Does it come from wages? There has been some wage growth in the past few years, but in the most recent statistics, pay growth has slumped to its lowest rate in two years. The growth is coming not from pay but from borrowing.

Let us consider the latest consumer borrowing figures. We do not have to go back a long way—let’s look at what is happening now. Consumer borrowing on credit cards and overdrafts is expanding at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Unsecured consumer credit was up by 8.3% in November—consumers borrowed an extra £1.5 billion of unsecured credit in November alone in the run-up to Christmas. While we are facing a potential rise in interest rates, we have merely returned to unsustainable consumer debt in order to carry growth forward into 2016. Yes, there has been growth, but it has come from borrowing. All that the Government have done is to transfer a fiscal deficit from the public sector to private individuals who are even less able to bear it.

[David Rutley]

I understand the point that the hon. Gentleman is trying to make, but it is too strong to say that Government policy is anti-export. That is not the case. The Government have been trying to navigate their way through a difficult economic situation, as I am sure the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) would agree. Being anti-export is not the intention, and the hon. Gentleman is overstating his case.

[George Kerevan]

I am glad that we have moved on from me being wrong to me merely overstating the case—we are making progress. I repeat: in the depth of a crisis such as this, we will move on from unsustainable debt by moving towards export-led growth. That is what some of the countries that suffered worst in the recession and from the crisis with the euro have done. We have not even begun to do that, and if we do only one thing today and persuade Government Members that that is the case, we might have made progress.