Charter for Budget Responsibility

David Rutley Excerpts

Wednesday 11th May 2011 Commons Chamber

[David Rutley (Macclesfield) (Con)]

It is an honour to speak in this debate. It may not be the best attended debate, but I believe that in future years we will look back at the charter and the creation of the Office for Budget Responsibility as a major step forward in the way we manage this country’s fiscal policy.

Mark Twain once said that prophecy—or, in this case, economic forecasting—is

“a good line of business, but it is full of risks”,

and in respect of certain Governments it is sometimes said that statistics, and even forecasts, can be used in the same way as

“a drunken man uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.”

I therefore welcome the creation of the OBR, as I believe it will bring far greater transparency to the forecasting process and the management of our public finances.

I want to refer back to what my hon. Friend the Economic Secretary said in her opening remarks, and to talk a little about why the charter and the OBR needed to be set up. The sheer scale of the recent economic crisis led many people to recognise the need to rethink how forecasting is conducted. It was also clear that Governments can be tempted to indulge in wishful thinking, and there was too much of that in the run-up to the credit crunch. Even Lord Turnbull in evidence to the Treasury Committee spoke about how it had existed during successive quarters of economic growth. Despite what has been claimed, it is the case that promises were made about an end to boom and bust, yet there was a boom and there certainly was a bust. As a result, we clearly need to improve our approach to forecasting.

In the current digital age, there is greater demand for transparency in many areas, and that must include in the development of forecasts for our economy and public finances. I therefore welcome the Chancellor’s bold and important move to transfer the power to create such forecasts to the OBR. That will bring greater objectivity to bear, and the forecasts will hold Governments of all shapes and sizes to account, which is definitely in the long-term interests of our economy.

The creation of the OBR has also strengthened the credibility of the Government’s efforts to tackle the current deficit and bring the UK economy back to sustainable economic growth, and I have been encouraged by the comments of some highly respected bodies in this field. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says:

“The decision to transfer responsibility for official economic and public finance forecasts from ministers to economic experts is a very welcome one. It does not guarantee that the forecasts will be accurate, but it will reassure people that they reflect professional judgement rather than politically motivated wishful thinking.”

That is important. The OECD says:

“The OBR will support the consolidation process, improve the quality and credibility of information and lay a sound basis for the forward-looking framework.”

Finally, the International Monetary Fund says:

“The OBR complements the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline by enhancing the transparency and credibility of the budget process and helping inform policy decisions.”

The “credibility” that is mentioned in just about each of these quotes is a vital commodity. It will build confidence in the debt markets and help to address the costs of funding our enormous burden of debt, and it will build confidence in businesses, and in their investment decisions. It will be vital in helping to bring about significant and sustained growth.

As a former member of the Treasury Committee, I was fortunate enough to have been able to participate in the appointment of Robert Chote as chairman of the OBR and the other members of the budget responsibility committee. Giving the Treasury Committee the power of consent over appointments and dismissals was another welcome move by the Chancellor, and has given Parliament a far greater say in these all-important matters.

The good news is that there has been very encouraging initial progress. The OBR has created thorough forecasts and supporting analysis, which has been welcomed on both sides of the House. It has become an important reference point in a very short period of time. It is vital that it builds on that reputation. I am pleased to see that more forecasts and reports are planned, including, as the Economic Secretary mentioned, the fiscal sustainability report that will be published later this year to give a truly long-term view of the future of our public finances. That is most welcome.

In conclusion, I hope that these short remarks have conveyed my strong support for this charter, and for the creation and clear processes of the OBR. It is a vital achievement which will bring about greater transparency, credibility and confidence in the forecasting process, and it represents a structural change in the management of our fiscal policy. The OBR will play a vital role in helping to bring the deficit back under control and to move this economy to sustainable growth. I wish the OBR every success in its endeavours, and I trust that the Treasury Committee will ensure that it gets the support it needs to carry out its important tasks and hold future Governments to account for many decades to follow. I fully support the motion.