Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

David Mowat Excerpts

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Jesse Norman]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I will move on to that point shortly.

The OBR is a new institution. Would it be right to put its recently created reputation at risk by inserting it into the political process in the run-up to an election? The answer is obviously no. These issues need to be calmly and soberly addressed, not patched together late in a Parliament. The proposal would require primary legislation, which will take time and consideration. It should not be rushed into on this timetable. The Institute for Government was perfectly clear that it should not be adopted as a hasty change to the OBR’s remit at this point in the Parliament.

The second question is this: would such a new role compromise the OBR’s key functions? There is an obvious danger that it might. The remit would require careful amendment. Clear rules would be needed on how many policies could be costed, if not a full manifesto, and on which political parties would be eligible. The OBR could not be expected to invigilate in hard cases or act as judge on these issues. It would undoubtedly be attacked by parties that were ineligible to have their policies costed.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

My hon. Friend has referred two or three times to policies being “costed” by the OBR. In fact, the motion refers to auditing, which has a precise meaning. I think that is the weakness of the Opposition’s case. What does an audit opinion mean? It would be qualified, true and fair, and in reality there would be several caveats, which we would end up arguing about.

[Jesse Norman]

That very important point speaks better than I can to my hon. Friend’s expertise. I suspect what the Opposition mean is “costed,” so their failure to understand the difference is reason alone to reject the motion. “Costing” was the word used by the Treasury Committee and that is what I would call it, too.

There is some risk of bias against insurgent parties that were growing in public support but did not have many MPs, or in favour of declining parties for the opposite reasons.

I remind the House that there are deeper questions to be addressed. Is it actually possible to have all policies costed in a genuinely authoritative and independent way? The answer is far from clear. Many policies are non-financial, many are vague and many have complex interactions with other policies that may themselves not have been costed, and many have implied costs that will not be captured by a direct costing exercise. It may be that the OBR will not enjoy the relative immunity from political controversy enjoyed by the civil service when it ends up costing Government and Opposition policies. Parties may try to gain the OBR, as they have attempted to do in Holland.

My final question is this: is it wise for the state to be pushed further into the political process? My hon. Friend the Member for South West Devon (Mr Streeter) has made this point, but let me reiterate it. It is a far bigger question than we have time to debate today, but just as there are perfectly proper concerns about the state being dragged into funding political parties or into press self-regulation, so there are proper concerns that the state should not be pulled into costing party policies. After all, parties have been producing policy ideas, themes and, indeed, platforms, if not manifestos, for more than 200 years, ever since the time of Burke, Fox and Pitt. The British public have found themselves able, mirabile dictu, to make judgments for that period, even without the wisdom of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

This very debate shows how this topic has already become bogged down by partisanship. Why does the Labour party now seek to have manifestos audited? The reason is that its polling data overwhelmingly demonstrates that Labour is hopelessly short of economic credibility. The shadow Chancellor himself is specifically responsible for—indeed, he incarnates—that lack of economic credibility. He was a key figure in the previous Government, who left our country so vulnerable to financial crisis. He had to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept his mistakes in office as a soft-touch regulating City Minister. He is still in denial over the success of plan A. The irony is that his performance on this very issue perfectly exemplifies the reasons for his diminishing authority: first, he was against costing policies, but now he is for it. For naked short-term advantage, he is prepared to politicise the OBR and its head, amid a lot of pious words about cross-party consensus from one of the most divisive figures in politics of the past two decades.

In conclusion, this is an important issue, but the shadow Chancellor embarrasses himself twice over: first, by placing it in such a party political context, and secondly, by ignoring the real problem for him, which is the catastrophic failure of trust in politicians and political parties today—a failure to which he himself has been no small contributor. The causes of that loss of trust have little to do with politics. They run much deeper to the decline in Britain’s influence around the world; the loss of standing of Parliament over so many recent scandals; feelings of powerlessness among the general public; an apparently increasing sense of outrage fanned by parts of the media; and a general unwillingness to grasp the complexity of Government or to give those in power the benefit of the doubt.

The time has passed when the shadow Chancellor could expect to be heard on this or any issue. He has thrown that right away. He has lost what authority he ever possessed. Today’s debate shows precisely why he will never, and should never, regain it.

[Debbie Abrahams (Oldham East and Saddleworth) (Lab)]

I agree with some bits in the speech the hon. Member for Hereford and South Herefordshire (Jesse Norman) has just made.

[David Mowat]

The last bit!

[Debbie Abrahams]

Certainly not the last bit. Last month’s elections were a wake-up call for all of us, and if we do not heed it, the future of politics will not look good. Far too many people feel completely disfranchised from politics and do not trust politicians. Too many people either stayed at home or cast their vote for a protest party. That is why I fully support the motion for the OBR to independently audit the spending and tax commitments of the main political parties in next year’s general election.

Undertaking that analysis would be a major step forward to help increase openness and transparency in politics. It would enable proper scrutiny and debate on the spending plans of all political parties, and enhance the democratic process. Ultimately, it would contribute to informed decision making, which is surely what we should all want. We are here as public servants to reflect issues in our constituencies and to develop policies that respond to those issues. Communicating our policies is part of our job. That is certainly the form of politics that Opposition Members want to develop.

This proposal is part of a process of addressing the major power imbalances and associated inequalities in our country, and we are absolutely determined to tackle it. We will continue to stand up to powerful vested interests, from media barons to the big energy companies. Information is power, and having information about how the Government or political parties intend to spend public money is very powerful.

--- Later in debate ---

[Cathy Jamieson]

The IFS’s role is slightly different from the one that has been proposed. This is about scrutinising and certifying the policies and plans for government. One hon. Member mentioned the difference between costings and audit. We are saying that the costings should be looked at. That role is slightly different from the one that the IFS fulfils.

We are confident that our policies will stand up to that scrutiny. We are confident enough to say that we want the OBR to run the rule over all the spending commitments in our manifesto. As Members have rightly said, we recognise the need to restore trust in politics. The public want assurances that our policies add up. They want the OBR, having done the work, to be in a position to give them the quality assurance that they seek. We strongly believe that the other major parties should be prepared to do the same thing. That will enable the electorate to make an informed decision based on facts. That is important.

[David Mowat]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Cathy Jamieson]

I am very short of time, unfortunately.

It is important to recognise that a number of people—Members have referred to this—have shown support in principle. The Government’s argument is twofold. First, they want to preserve the independence of the OBR. My hon. Friends have advanced a number of arguments as to why the Government seem to be the only people at this stage who are bringing party politics into the debate on the OBR. It is not Members on the Opposition Benches who are doing so. Secondly, it is important to recognise that the Government’s other objection is that there is insufficient time. However, we have the information and discussions have taken place with the head of the OBR. If we do not make a decision quickly and put measures in place, we will run out of time, but there is still a window of opportunity.

I hope that when he sums up the Minister will be able to answer some of the questions that the Financial Secretary to the Treasury was unable to answer earlier. What discussions have Ministers had with the OBR since the plans were first mooted? Our integrity, why we are making the proposal and what we have done about it has been questioned, but it is also the responsibility of Government to take these matters forward. I hope that the Minister will be able to give us information on that.

As far back as 2010, the Chancellor himself said that this was a

“legitimate matter for the House to debate and decide.”“—[Official Report, 12 October 2010; Vol. 516, c. 142.]

It is unfortunate not only that in the intervening years he has not seen fit to address the issue, but that he has not seen fit to turn up today to give us any more information. That leaves Opposition Members with no option but to draw the conclusion that the only reason why the Government do not adopt a consensual approach today and embrace the opportunity to take this proposal forward is that they have no wish to do this whatsoever, and I am sure the public watching will also draw that conclusion. The public will then also draw the inference that those of us on the Opposition Benches draw: that the Government do not wish to have their policies put under the same scrutiny as we are prepared to have our policies put under.