High Speed 2

Debate between Dan Byles and Stephen Hammond

Thursday 13th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Hammond]

There is one fallacy with my hon. Friend’s argument. Simply speeding up the current network and alleviating some minor problems is no substitution for high-speed rail. It is clear that high-speed rail would at least double capacity, and on certain parts of the route, the capacity increase would be significantly more than that.

The Y-shaped high-speed network across the UK would bring a benefit-cost ratio of about 2:6. For the London to Birmingham section, the ratio would be 2:0. That shows that the case for going further north becomes more compelling and adds to the economic benefit. The proposals in “A Better Railway for Britain” would have a benefit-cost ratio of 1:4. Those ratios prove that high-speed rail is significantly better than some of these hotch-potch alternatives in “A Better Railway for Britain”.

[Dan Byles (North Warwickshire) (Con)]

Does my hon. Friend accept that between the two iterations of the business case in March 2010 and February 2011, the Government had to slash their estimate of the benefit-cost ratio by 40%? That was the first time that the business case was prodded. If another 40% comes off it when it is prodded again, it will be proven to have been economically unviable.

[Stephen Hammond]

When the business case is re-examined, the key thing will be: what happens if it improves? The more important point is that the benefit-cost ratio for HS2 is overwhelmingly ahead of any of the other proposals. That is true.

The economic case is overwhelming. My hon. Friend the Member for Wirral West (Esther McVey) eloquently set out some of the issues in the north, but the point is that in the construction phase alone, high-speed rail will generate 40,000 jobs along the route. That does not include any calculation of the ripple supply-chain effect, which will certainly be felt. More than that, the combination of HS2 and the northern hub, which has already been referred to, will create a new economic conurbation in the north and allow much quicker access between the north and London. That connectivity is hugely important.

When the business community criticises politicians, it says that all too often one of the reasons why it does not invest and why there are barriers to growth is that we, the politicians, have not put in place the appropriate infrastructure. This scheme is the appropriate infrastructure for the 21st century.

The environmental impact cannot be understated. The Department for Transport currently estimates that the project is carbon-neutral, and I absolutely accept that. However, I am aware that the Campaign for Better Transport is doing some new research into the impact of taking extra freight by rail, which, when combined with the transference effect from railways, I am led to believe points to the conclusion that the carbon footprint will be significantly reduced.

High-Speed Rail

Debate between Dan Byles and Stephen Hammond

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Dan Byles]

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. It sounds ideal to suggest that linking the two systems will benefit the regions, but the university of Barcelona looked at high-speed rail systems on the continent, and found that the benefits often flow the other way. Economic activity might drain away from the north towards the south.

[Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon) (Con)]

I am listening carefully to the point that my hon. Friend is making. He will know, of course, that the 1970s experience in Japan is contrary to the findings of the study. More importantly and more locally, the study from the North West Business Leadership Team only yesterday points in a completely different direction from that in the Spanish study.

[Dan Byles]

I give way to my hon. Friend the Member for Warrington South (David Mowat)

[Dan Byles]

North Warwickshire council and, I believe, Warwick district council, as well as Warwickshire county council and Staffordshire county council, have all come out formally against the proposal. They obviously do not believe that there will be wider economic benefits for the midlands and their council areas.

The point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Wimbledon (Stephen Hammond) demonstrates that we need to do more work before spending 17 billion quid of taxpayers’ money. If some reports say one thing, and others say something else, where is the fundamental, independent, root and branch economic analysis of existing high-speed rail systems in other countries around the world? I genuinely do not believe that what HS2 and the Department for Transport published represents that.

[Stephen Hammond]

Will my hon. Friend say who would satisfy his classification of independence?