High-Speed Rail

Debate between Dan Byles and Andrea Leadsom

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Andrea Leadsom]

I agree absolutely with my hon. Friend. We desperately need to improve dramatically the capacity in our train infrastructure. I hope that she will bear with me, because I intend to show that we can achieve that without needing to spend the amount of money that we are talking about for high-speed rail.

[Dan Byles (North Warwickshire) (Con)]

On that point, lest people think that that argument means that this is somehow a green solution, is it not the case that any slots freed up at Heathrow from domestic airlines will be taken up by long-haul airlines, thus increasing not decreasing emissions?

[Andrea Leadsom]

Yes, indeed. There have been plenty of anecdotal reports from low-cost airlines suggesting that they would welcome the opportunity to put on more cheap long-haul flights.

I plan to challenge four aspects of the case for HS2: the business case, the environmental case, the claims about job creation and the potential for regeneration. I am a firm believer that one cannot attack something without providing an alternative. I will therefore also discuss a viable alternative to HS2. I have based my challenges on phase 1 of HS2, in spite of the fact, unfortunately, that the consultation incorporates the entire Y-shaped project. There is too little detail on the assumptions underlying phase 2 to be able to assess the figures properly. I also need to point out that the original business case, written by Atkins for the Department for Transport in March 2010, was updated last month. The new business case is considerably less attractive than the old one.

I will deal first with the business case for HS2. HS2 Ltd claims a net benefit ratio, which includes the wider economic impacts, of 2. That means that for every pound spent, there will be £2 of benefit. That is about the minimum return that could be expected from a rail project—the bar for roads projects is significantly higher. Even that modest claim, however, makes enormous assumptions. Specifically, one of the core and somewhat ludicrous assumptions is that all the time spent on a train journey is wasted, and therefore that every minute of a train journey that is saved can be given a value in pounds—the number of minutes saved, multiplied by the earnings of an individual. That would not matter so much except that the journey time savings account for more than 50% of the £20 billion of total economic benefit claimed for the project. I urge the Department for Transport to look again closely at that point.

--- Later in debate ---

[Dan Byles]

I am delighted to hear the Minister say that that is not true.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I would like to make the point that it is not possible for my right hon. Friend to make that claim. The transport network is actually in the private sector. Therefore, if the rail operators find that they are losing revenue because there is no longer the overcrowding that there was because of the 65% transferral of passengers to high-speed rail, they will inevitably either put up fares or reduce services. The most likely outcome is a reduction of services, because fares are capped.

[Dan Byles]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for making that point. The very fact that the Minister referred to indicative figures—they are out there in the public domain, are causing concern, and are often quoted—shows that we have not yet had sufficient discussion or debate about the impact. From a sedentary position, hon. Members have rubbished some of the claims for Rail Package 2, and say that work has been done and shows that some of our claims for it are simply not true. Where is that work? Why is it not being published? Why is the Department for Transport not addressing the questions that opponents of HS2 are asking? Instead, it is addressing motives, and using words such as “nimby” and so on instead of addressing arguments. The Department should address those questions, but it is not doing so adequately.

Of more concern is the fact that there is evidence from studies of existing high-speed rail services in other countries that, far from pushing economic growth from the centre to the regions, they may have the opposite effect. They may suck economic activity from the regions toward the centre. There is a real danger of economic growth draining away from, for example, Birmingham and the surrounding region towards London. The Research Institute of Applied Economics at the university of Barcelona studied existing high-speed rail networks in Japan, France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Its findings should cause policy makers in the UK to sit up and take notice. It suggested that smaller cities linked to larger cities by high-speed rail lines sometimes suffer from a negative agglomeration effect. That may take several forms, but the report is very clear about the risks for smaller cities such as Birmingham when linked to a larger city such as London.

I shall quote briefly from the report. It states:

“It is consistently reported that HSR does not generate any new activities nor does it attract new firms and investment, but rather it helps to consolidate and promote ongoing processes as well as to facilitate intra-organizational journeys for those firms and institutions for whom mobility is essential.”

It continues:

“In fact, for regions and cities whose economic conditions compare unfavorably with those of their neighbors, a connection to the HST line may even result in economic activities being drained away and an overall negative impact”