Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: Iran

Caroline Nokes Excerpts

Tuesday 19th October 2021 Westminster Hall

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

Before we begin, I encourage hon. Members to wear masks when they are not speaking, in line with current Government guidance and that of the House of Commons Commission. Please also give each other and members of staff space when seated and when entering or leaving the room.

[Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

May I start by saying what a pleasure it is to serve under your chairmanship, Ms Nokes? I refer colleagues to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests. I am grateful for having secured the time for this important debate, which is timely given Iran’s escalating nuclear violations and the continuing uncertainty around negotiations on the JCPOA nuclear deal. This is one of the most serious and most pressing foreign policy challenges of our time.

Before I get into those arguments I would like to take a moment to recognise the contribution to this Chamber made by our dear friend Sir David Amess. As we heard yesterday, Sir David never missed an opportunity to use whatever debating opportunities were available to press Ministers on the causes and issues that were close to his heart. He certainly used Westminster Hall to its fullest. As a member of the Panel of Speakers, he chaired many of the debates that took place here. I know that colleagues will miss seeing him in the chair, masterfully overseeing proceedings in a way that one can only do with 40 years of service under their belt.

There is every chance that Sir David would have sought to speak today. Last December, I had the pleasure of following him in a debate on this very subject. As ever, he spoke with great authority about Iran, his hopes for real, positive change in that country, and its need for true democratic revival. In his own words,

“I am now, unfortunately, in my fourth decade of saying negative things about the Iranian regime; it would be good to still be here in Parliament when I can say something positive about it.”—[Official Report, 9 December 2020; Vol. 685, c. 431WH.]

How sad and how tragic that he is not here to contribute today, and that he will not be able to say something positive about the country that he knew very well and loved. As a man of faith and strong conviction, a man who loved history, he had a deep interest in and affection for the wider middle east. He demonstrated that being a friend of Israel is no barrier to being a friend of Arab nations, too. In many ways, he was an embodiment of the Abraham accords long before they were signed.

Just a few weeks ago, Sir David tried to bend my arm into joining his delegation to Qatar. He knew of my interest in and desire to visit that country, and we both spoke in a debate on UK-Qatar relations a year ago. Unfortunately, constituency activities meant that I could not go, but I knew that travelling with Sir David would have been a very enjoyable experience. He was on the delegation on my first visit to Israel with the Conservative Friends of Israel, and I can say from first-hand knowledge just what a wonderful, funny, kind and generous travelling companion he could be.

Sir David was clear-sighted about the true nature of the Iranian regime and its malign influence throughout the middle east. In his speech last year, he spoke about Iranian terror activities in the region and here in Europe, and he warned of Iran’s ballistic missile programme and uranium enrichment activity. When it came to Iran, Sir David was simply someone who got it. Yes, he was hopeful, and almost romantically he longed for positive change for the Iranian people, but make no mistake: he was hard-head and clear-sighted about the immediate threats and challenges posed by Iran, and the need for strong countermeasures. That is very much my theme for this afternoon as we return to the subject of Iran’s compliance with JCPOA.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stephen Crabb]

My right hon. Friend is right to draw attention to the position of Israel and the fears and concerns within Israel. However, it is not just Israel; numerous other countries throughout the region live in fear of an Iranian regime armed with nuclear weapons.

It is a view widely held in security and academic circles that Iran’s breakout time—the time required to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon—may now be as little as several months. Some analysts are even talking in terms of a matter of weeks. That is an alarming decrease from the estimated 12 months’ breakout time that was at the heart of the JCPOA in 2015. By extension, a return to the JCPOA would not represent a return to the JCPOA of 2015. The situation has fundamentally changed for the worse and there is a new baseline.

I recognise that the ongoing negotiations will make it difficult for the Minister to touch upon specifics, but I encourage him to ensure that the UK considers the implementation of supplementary nuclear restrictions by the UK, our E3 partners and the US to compensate for the reduction in Iran’s nuclear breakout time. I particularly hope that restrictions such as the destruction of advanced centrifuges or components and a moratorium on centrifuge R&D and production are under consideration. The IAEA still has an essential role to play in the enforcement of the restrictions. Accordingly, I urge the Minister to ensure that the IAEA continues to have the UK’s full support and that it is empowered to finally verify the full extent of Iranian activities, both declared and otherwise.

I feel the international community keeps missing opportunities to hold Iran accountable. I believe that the Biden Administration have miscalculated by choosing to ease political and economic pressure on the Iranian regime, and that the expectation that doing so will lead to Iran renegotiating a stronger and longer JCPOA is misguided. I understand Iranian officials have already flatly rejected the idea. Conversely, the deliberate failure to meaningfully respond to Iranian non-compliance has led the country to commit ever greater acts of defiance and escalation. It seems that the collective failure to reprimand Iran for each acceleration of its nuclear programme simply underwrites its next transgression.

I strongly welcome the Foreign Secretary’s comments this month about working

“night and day with our friends and allies across the world to stop”

Iran from becoming a nuclear power. That is unmistakably an important commitment. I have said that the UK needs to be clear-sighted about its policy towards Iran. I have also reflected that the belief shared by some in Government back in 2015 that the JCPOA and our re-establishment of diplomatic ties with Iran would lead to rapprochement was not well founded. The regime has long since stopped warranting the benefit of the doubt. The Iranian Government have a consistent track record of banking any concessions they are given and using whatever means are at their disposal to push for more concessions, while never really altering the fundamental trajectory of their foreign policy and military goals.

I have heard it said—in fact, I read it in an article just last month by a former UK diplomat—that Iran is effectively posturing to secure maximum economic and diplomatic concessions, and that actually it has limited interest in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. I regard such views as dangerously naïve, reflecting a long-standing desire on the part of some in western diplomatic circles to keep giving Iran the benefit of the doubt. There is a misguided and dangerous notion that if we keep showing more love and give more concessions to Iran, that will trigger a fundamental change of posture in Tehran, and it will emerge as a responsible member of the international community. I fear that Iran is continuing to play the international community like a fiddle.

As I listened to the Foreign Secretary’s recent remarks about Iran and the need for a network of liberty, I could not help but think that now—[Interruption.]

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

Order.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stephen Crabb]

I do not wish to take up too much of the time left for this debate, as I would like other colleagues to have a chance to speak. I have taken a considerable amount of time to set out some of my arguments and concerns around the strategy that Iran appears to be pursuing.

I spoke of my encouragement from comments made by the new Foreign Secretary. I spoke about the importance of being clear-sighted about Iran and my concerns that the international community is at risk of being played by the Iranian regime, who constantly seek further concessions. They bank them and fundamentally do not alter their trajectory in any meaningful way when it comes to their military and foreign policy goals.

I will close my contribution with an appeal to the Minister, who I know has been listening very carefully. He was in the debate that we held in this Chamber 10 months ago on the same subject, and he is intimately knowledgeable of the details of the subject matter. We have a key moment coming up towards the end of next month with the board of governors of the IAEA meeting in Vienna. The option of censuring Iran for its continuing violations of the JCPOA is, I think, an option diplomatically that we need to keep in play. I do not expect the Minister to comment fully on that, but I ask that he listen, because we need to show as an alliance of freedom-loving nations that we continue to consider the full range of options in response to Iran’s strategy—diplomatically, economically and, yes, ultimately militarily, but that is not a subject for this afternoon.

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

I can see that a good number of Back Benchers are wishing to contribute, so I will not put you on a formal time limit yet, but please be considerate of fellow speakers.

--- Later in debate ---

[Several hon. Members rose—]

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

Order. I would like to call the first Front-Bench speaker at 3.49, so it would be helpful if Members could keep their remarks to about four minutes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

I thank the right hon. Member for Preseli Pembrokeshire (Stephen Crabb) for bringing this debate and giving us all a chance to support it and be part of it. I will miss my colleague, Sir David Amess, as others have also said. He undoubtedly would have been here and standing up for democracy and justice, alongside us, as he always did in these matters.

I want to put on record some words which I did not have the chance to say yesterday, but that want to say today, if I may. I know that David was a man of faith and would have appreciated these words, which I believe would have been true of David, from 2 Timothy, chapter 4, verses 7 and 8:

“He has fought the good fight, he has finished the race, he has kept the faith.

Henceforth there is laid up for him the crown of righteousness, which the Lord, the righteous judge, will award to him on that day and not only to him, but also to all who have loved his appearing”.

We mourn his passing, but also celebrate his life and pass on sincere sympathies to his wife, children and family circle.

Few of us can plead ignorance of what is happening in Iran. We can all see the fact that life continues: the race for nuclear arms continues in violation of the joint comprehensive plan of action and, unfortunately, global inaction will allow this to continue to the detriment of us all.

I am sure that many of us have read the IAEA report, which makes clear that the regime has 10 kg of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade level, at a very dangerous point. In addition, Tehran has stockpiled more than 120 kg of 20% enriched uranium, also ready to go. Under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal—the JCPOA—the regime is not allowed to enrich uranium above 3.5%. The maths are clear—you do not need to be an Einstein to work it out, Ms Nokes: Iran is above the threshold and in violation, and steps must indeed be taken, not just words. That is not a criticism, by the way, but we need something better than words.

In February, the IAEA inspectors confirmed that the regime had produced 3.6 grams of uranium metal at the Isfahan nuclear plant. The IAEA also warned that its verification had been seriously undermined since February by Tehran’s refusal to allow inspectors access to the IAEA monitoring equipment. One of its recent reports also stipulates:

“The presence of multiple uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at three locations in Iran not declared to the agency, as well as the presence of isotopically altered particles at one of these locations, is a clear indication that nuclear material and/or equipment contaminated by nuclear material has been present at these locations”.

These things could not be more serious or worrying, as others have said. What is not needed today—I say this with respect—is a strongly worded statement by the E3: the Governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom warning this is a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon. We need action. The National Council of Resistance of Iran, which I think everyone of us here has probably been invited to speak or has spoken at—Sir David was one of the speakers at every event held here—made five recommendations. I will make them here to the Minister, because I support them.

The six UN Security Council resolutions must be reinstituted and implemented. Secondly, the regime’s enrichment programme must be stopped completely and its nuclear sites must be closed. Thirdly, anytime, anywhere inspections must be carried out and the regime’s missile programme must be brought to a halt. Fourthly, the Security Council must recognise the regime in Iran as the main threat to global peace and security and place its nuclear programme under chapter VII of the UN Charter. Fifthly, the Government must proscribe the Islamic revolutionary guard, the IRGC, in its entirety under the Terrorism Act 2000, as recommended by the Foreign Affairs Committee.

In conclusion, this House must seriously consider the steps that we take. This is a matter of life and death, and the security of this great nation and of every nation in the world. Words are not enough; we must act, and act soon. Do the five things that the National Council of Resistance of Iran have said to do, and we are going somewhere.

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

If Members can stick to three and a half minutes, they will all get in.