National Policy Statement (National Networks)

Bob Stewart Excerpts

Tuesday 13th January 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Goodwill]

The NPS applies only to England, but we are aware of the need for better connectivity between the devolved parts of our country and in particular to the European networks we are working with. I spoke recently with one of the hon. Gentleman’s colleagues about the need for better connectivity between Wales and England.

The Government take the need to invest in transport infrastructure seriously. In December 2014, we published the first ever road investment strategy, which outlines how £15.2 billion will be invested in our strategic roads between 2015 and 2021. That is the biggest upgrade to our strategic roads in a generation, building on the £9 billion-worth of schemes under construction in this Parliament. Equally, more than £35 billion will be spent on operating and expanding the railways in England and Wales between 2014 and 2019, including more than £9 billion of infrastructure investment. That includes delivering an extra 140,000 commuter journeys into our major cities during the morning peak to improve commuter travel into the major urban areas. That is in addition to the investment committed for HS2, which is outside the scope of the NPS.

[Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Con)]

Do we have any estimate of how much additional land will be required for new railways and so on?

[Mr Goodwill]

The first point to make on that is that the HS2 network is not within the scope of the NPS; it has its own separate hybrid Bill process. The vast majority of the schemes we are investing in are upgrading existing networks. Indeed, in the smart motorways scheme, we are using existing carriageway for hard-shoulder running. Some specific schemes will need land, such as—off the top of my head—the A14 Huntingdon bypass, which will be on new land, and one of the options for the lower Thames crossing would also require the procurement of land.

On the specifics of the NPS, the Select Committee raised some issues with the forecasts in its scrutiny of the draft NPS. The Government use a number of forecasts to allow us to understand the potential for a range of outcomes for road demand. The range of forecasts predict growth on the strategic road network of between 27% and 57% from 2013 to 2040. Rail passenger demand is predicted to continue to grow significantly. Total average growth in passenger kilometres is predicted to be just over 50% from 2011 to 2033, including phase 1 of HS2.

Long-term forecasting is challenging and we acknowledge that in the past we have over and under-forecast traffic. That mainly reflects inaccurate projections for the key drivers of traffic growth: population, GDP and oil prices, which are themselves uncertain, as anyone who is waiting to buy their first litre of petrol for £1 will no doubt agree. To reflect the uncertainty in these key drivers, we have presented a range of forecasting scenarios. It is notable that on this basis we expect greater divergence between traffic in different locations, but even on the lowest national traffic forecasts we will still see strong growth on the strategic road network that will increase congestion and crowding.

There is a similar picture for rail, where even low forecasts show more crowding, more congestion on rail lines and problems with reliability. It is important to understand that the forecasts in the NPS will not be used as the sole means to justify new developments. Individual schemes will also be required to use local models to justify schemes and to understand local impacts. Local modelling will remain an important part of the transport business case, which all road schemes funded by the Government will continue to be required to complete.

The NPS supports a significant and balanced package of improvements across the road and rail networks. Those improvements are accompanied by policies to support sustainable transport.