Public Health

Bob Seely Excerpts

Tuesday 14th December 2021 Commons Chamber

[Sajid Javid]

I will do so later.

In England, 10 people are confirmed to have been hospitalised with the omicron variant. I know that some hon. Members have said that, because confirmed hospitalisations from omicron are low, we do not need to act, but it is the fact that omicron hospitalisations are low that means now is the best time to act. We have seen during previous waves—we have already seen this—that the lag between infections and hospitalisations is about two weeks. When infections are rising so quickly, we are likely to see a substantial rise in hospitalisations before any measure starts to have an impact, so there really is no time to lose.

[Bob Seely (Isle of Wight) (Con)]

I understand the nuanced point that my right hon. Friend is making, but on the forecasts, does he accept that many academics have doubted the previous forecasts, describing them as “hysterical”, “substantially inflated”, “consistently overconfident”, “lurid” and “severely flawed”? We have had a problem with inaccurate forecasts. Does he accept that point?

[Sajid Javid]

Yes, I absolutely accept that point. With previous variants of covid, we have seen forecasts and estimates—whether from academics, think-tanks or others—that have been completely off the mark, but all I would say, gently, to my hon. Friend and other hon. Members is that, just because several forecasts in the past have been wrong, it does not mean that every estimate or forecast is always wrong. I hope my hon. Friend will note that.

--- Later in debate ---

[Wes Streeting]

I wholeheartedly agree with my hon. Friend. This comes back to the point I made about the Government engaging with the staff trade unions and the royal colleges. Whatever their policy position on having mandatory vaccination, the Secretary of State will find in them willing allies who want to help the Government to persuade colleagues to engage with them and to deal with some of these dangerous conspiracy theories that are knocking public confidence, and creating real fear and anxiety entirely without basis. When the Minister for the Cabinet Office concludes later, I hope that he will set out how the Government plan to engage and that he will give an undertaking to work with the staff trade unions and the royal colleges, because that would do so much to achieve the objectives that we all share, but also to raise morale in the workforce, who often feel that they are slogging their guts out for the Government, but do not get the hearing they deserve.

[Bob Seely]

The hon. Gentleman is making a very good speech, and I apologise for interrupting him, but on a point of science, will he just accept that he has got it a little bit wrong? Someone having the vaccine does not stop them spreading it; it just makes it much less likely that it will harm them badly. Someone can have the vaccine and still spread it, and to imply otherwise is just wrong.

[Wes Streeting]

The hon. Gentleman has called repeatedly from a sedentary position that I do not know the science, but I have said nothing of any sort to contradict the points he has just made.

With respect to Conservative Members, particularly those who oppose these measures, what they are missing is that it is indisputable that the booster does provide greater protection than the first and second jabs, that vaccination—full stop—provides better protection, and that if we are talking about NHS pressures and workforce pressures, the biggest danger is that the virus sweeps through the health and social care workforce, knocks a load of people out in the middle of the busiest period for the NHS, and then the system topples over. I do not know why it has to be explained again and again to Conservative Members that the objective is to protect the NHS and to stop it toppling over at a critical time. The points about the severity of the virus and the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing transmission or serious illness are largely secondary. We know that the virus is spreading, and doing so rapidly, and we know that if it rips through the health and social care workforce, that is the biggest risk to the NHS—that is what will topple it over. Conservative Members’ constituents will not thank them one bit if they allow that to happen.

--- Later in debate ---

[Bob Seely (Isle of Wight) (Con)]

Me? I am sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, I could not hear you over the appreciation for the speech of my hon. Friend the Member for Penistone and Stocksbridge (Miriam Cates).

I strongly support getting vaccinated. I had my booster jab two weeks ago. I thank all Islanders who are engaged in the vaccination process in my constituency. I congratulate the Government on an ambitious booster programme. When it comes to the vote tonight, I will accept and trust what they say on face masks and on the daily tests, which seem infinitely more sensible than locking people down in hotels. I will not support them on passports or mandatory jabs. Threatening the jobs of 73,000 NHS staff seems an odd way to support the NHS.

I want to raise a wider issue with those on the Front Bench, which has somewhat coloured my judgment. I have heard nothing to reassure me on the following points. I am fed up with dubious forecasts and ridiculous extrapolations the kind of which many hon. Members have talked about. Academics—I am not quoting myself—have talked about Imperial College London’s forecast being “hysterical”, “inflated”, “consistently over-confident”, “lurid”, “flawed” and “spectacularly wrong”. What do the Government have to say about the incredibly questionable extrapolations that they have used?

I am tired of all the leaks. It was leaked that omicron could kill 75,000. It could, but it may not. All these doomsday forecasts, leaked at critical moments, erode public trust.

Thirdly, we are told we have to follow the science. Of course we have to follow the science, but it is a misleading statement as science is shaped by the inputs and by the desired outcome. For example, we had 70 pages of evidence from Scotland on vaccine passports, but there was no evidence to support their value for uptake, so why are we introducing them? We are doing so because of the precautionary principle. That is not science.

One of the most disturbing things is the lack of context for the statistics that have been used. Was that to increase knowledge or to increase fear? My right hon. Friend the Member for New Forest West (Sir Desmond Swayne) said that between 500 and 1,000 people die each day in this country, and people die of flu all the time. It is about putting this information in context, and I fear that the result of too much of this has been to scare people, especially the old and now the young. They are petrified of covid without taking account of more genuine and potentially more damaging threats such as the appalling impact on education.

I will vote against the Government on two of the motions tonight, but my decision to do so has been coloured by the past 18 months of policy, which we need to improve.