Energy (oil and gas) profits levy
Debate between Bim Afolami and Kit Malthouse(2 years ago)
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Kit Malthouse (North West Hampshire) (Con)
It is obviously foolish for the Opposition to pretend that a pandemic and a continental war, with its associated energy shock, would not be felt economically in this country. At the same time, it is clearly preposterous for them to try to talk down the UK economy as some kind of basket case, when we compare very favourably to some of our peers on debt to GDP, employment is still very high and we have an economy that exhibits so many underlying strengths. At the same time, it is fair to say that the autumn statement was greeted with some dismay on the Government Benches. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has obviously had to make some very difficult and challenging decisions, given the economic headwinds we face.
First of all, however, I should point to one of the bright moments in the statement, which was the Chancellor’s pledge on education funding. The £2.3 billion extra on top of what is already in the baseline over the next two years was very welcome. I am grateful to the 27 colleagues who, along with me, signed a letter urging the Chancellor not only to protect schools funding, but to invest further. Our view was that one of the groups most hard hit by the pandemic and that awful disease was children. The case for investing further in their education to deal with the backlog, helping them to catch up and ensuring they can have productive lives in the future, felt to us morally strong and it would have been indefensible to cut that spending. We are therefore extremely pleased that he responded in such a positive way.
I have only a few minutes, so I want to outline three lessons from the recent turmoil, two warnings and a hope for the future. The first lesson is predicated on a phrase that does not go down well in either marriages or politics—the four little words, “I told you so.” For those of us who have been tracking the path of the UK money supply over the last 10 years, the underlying inflation, which was baked into our system and has emerged over the last 12 months, has not, I am afraid, come as any great surprise. The fact that the Bank of England has been slow to recognise the importance of monetarism and money policy over the last couple of years is a cause of great dismay, not least because a number of us consistently raised this issue with the previous Governor when he was in front of the Treasury Committee and since. The denial of the kind of Bank of England orthodoxy that the money supply mattered has come back to haunt us in a big way. The enormous growth in the money supply has outstripped the growth in our economy—yes, coming out of the crash in 2007-08, but in particular coming out of the pandemic—and resulted in the inflation in this country that is now taxing every family. It is hard to see that the Bank has moved with alacrity to deal with it—if anything, I think the criticism is that it has been a bit slow—but I hope the lesson we learn for the future, and on which this House should concentrate and focus, is that the money supply matters. When we look around the world we see consensus around a loose monetary policy for far too long and we need to bear that in mind.
The second lesson is that the Bank’s handling of the bond market really matters as well. We had assumed that that was a benign market that we could take for granted, but it became clear that the Bank’s hangover from its quantitative tightening—its declaration of sales forward into the market—had a significant impact. That was then exacerbated by the so-called fiscal event. We also bear huge losses on that market from the Bank’s dealings. Admittedly, there have been profits in previous years, but the fact that we are bearing about £11 billion-worth of losses from the Bank’s trading in that market matters. Also, within that market, we discovered to our horror that pension funds were effectively gambling with borrowed money, shorting inflation through the so-called LDI— liability-driven investment—strategy, which became so systemically problematic for the economy that the Bank had to intervene again. That points to lax supervision and comprehension of the weaknesses in the bond market.
The third lesson is that we as a House have perhaps not concentrated enough on the operations of the Debt Management Office. I have yet to see anywhere an obviously declared policy decision to move our debt more towards index-linked or inflation-linked bonds. We have moved from 6% of our debt being index-linked 10 or so years ago to about 22%. That is a near-quadrupling of the figure. As I think the Chair of the Treasury Committee—my hon. Friend the Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin)—said yesterday, that effectively means that the Government were shorting inflation. At a time when we had lost track of the money supply, or in fact, had decided that the money supply did not matter, that proved to be a foolish bet.
Bim Afolami
When I was on the Public Accounts Committee a couple of years ago, we looked at index-linked debt on the whole of Government accounts. If I recall this correctly, the answer we received was that there was no long-term risk of widespread inflation because there were global forces that were becoming deflationary, rather than inflationary. The points that my right hon. Friend is making illustrate well the poor analysis in that approach.
Kit Malthouse
I completely agree. I remember well debates with Mark Carney, when he was head of the Bank of England, about the combination of a rise in the money supply and the underlying inflationary effects in our economy being masked by deflationary effects, not least of global supply chains, and the fact that we now have so much stuff made and imported from China, as well as the effect of the internet. Once the curtain was pulled back and we had problems with our supply chains—and that curve of deflation bottomed out—lo and behold, the money supply suddenly became important again. Let us hope that we learn that lesson for the future.
Notwithstanding the difficult decisions that the Chancellor has made, another opportunity is coming for us to trim the sails: the Budget in the spring. As we move towards that moment, I hope that we can look towards some positive changes in the global economic environment. Hopefully, the war in Ukraine will start to recede. International container prices are already falling, as are energy costs. We can therefore think again in the spring and I hope that we will bear two things in mind.
First, we need to bear in mind that, in a tight labour market, tax rises can prolong inflation. If we, through tax rises, give people, in effect, a take-home pay cut at the same time as they face higher costs because of their mortgages and generally because of the cost of living, they are likely to start to demand more from their employers. I am afraid that that has a possibility of sparking a wage and price spiral, particularly as we know that the secondary effects of that inflation will take some time—possibly months, if not years—to work their way through the system. I would bear that in mind when we think about possible tax rises, particularly from fiscal drag.
My second concern—I give this warning to Ministers—is that chasing debt to GDP could become a hare that they are unable to catch. If the actions taken from a fiscal and monetary point of view damage our GDP number—if GDP falls—we have to work even harder to reduce costs, or debt, against that number. If the action taken to reduce the numerator in the equation paradoxically damages the denominator, the equation becomes harder and harder to reach. If we base our ability to reach that debt-to-GDP ratio on a lower figure—particularly with a 3% GDP debt limit—through tax rises, the only way to avoid a doom loop is to tax and tax, even if we know that we can never fill in the hole that we are digging.
Finally, let me turn to my hope for the future. When we get to the spring Budget, I hope not only that the global winds that are blowing against us will have receded somewhat, but that, frankly, we can restore our belief in capitalism. My strong view is that the only way that we will get out of this hole—a number of Members have said this in the past few days—is through growth. We will not tax our way to prosperity, nor will we tax our way out of this debt-to-GDP problem. We need to inject growth into the economy. The only way to do that is to let the wealth creators free by loosening the ties that bind them and by looking at the regulation and taxation on capital, in particular, so that people are willing to take risks. One of the most dismaying choices in the statement was the proposed increase in capital taxes, not least because that changes the risk-reward ratio, meaning that it is less likely that people will go out and start a business.
Although some of the decisions about research and development, including the vast amount of money that is being pumped into that across the whole UK, are extremely welcome, unless there is a strong, pullulating, dynamic private sector out there to pick up the ball and run with it, all the intellectual property that the money creates will just end up overseas, where plenty of venture capitalists and entrepreneurs will be willing to pick that up and run with it.
Believing again in capitalism, allowing people to keep more of their money and to invest it, and building businesses for the future will be critical to our overall success in the months, years and decades to come. As we move towards the spring Budget, I hope that Ministers will look again at the five-year OBR forecast, remembering that it is there not to be fulfilled, but to be beaten and bested. It is there to warn us of what might happen so that we can take action now to avoid it. I hope that come the spring Budget, that is exactly what the Government will do.
Oral Answers to Questions
Debate between Bim Afolami and Kit Malthouse(4 years, 6 months ago)
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Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
The Minister for Crime and Policing (Kit Malthouse)
Stealing someone’s tools is a particularly rotten kind of crime. Not only does it deprive them of their belongings, which is bad enough, but it also often deprives them of their livelihood, notwithstanding the inconvenience that it causes to them and their employers. We are determined to do something about this, which is why I recently convened a group of people from the industry and from policing to look at what more we can do to help. We are spending £25 million on our safer streets fund to drive down exactly this kind of acquisitive crime.
Bim Afolami
I thank the Minister for his response. Will he join me in championing the use of modern technology to combat tool theft such as the ToolWatch app designed by Harpenden residents, Denise and Alan Brett? This technology makes each tool traceable and can help police fight this crime. Will he take this opportunity to champion ToolWatch and help to spread its use in police forces throughout the country?
Kit Malthouse
My hon. Friend is one of the most original thinkers in the House and therefore it is no surprise that he champions innovation in all things, including crime fighting. Yes, he is absolutely right, there is lots more we can do in harnessing technology to fight crime, and I would be very interested, when we get back to normal, to visit his constituents and see ToolWatch for myself so that we can take it and promote it to the industry more generally.
Finance Bill
Debate between Bim Afolami and Kit Malthouse(7 years, 3 months ago)
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Kit Malthouse
I was about to come to that. The rise in taxation on dividend says something about how we treat the proceeds of risk. The argument has always been that dividends should be taxed less than income to recognise that risk. More times than not, if someone invests in a company, they lose their money. In some spheres, such as life sciences—a specialist area of mine—nine times out of 10 they lose their money. If someone invests in a drug discovery company, it is quasi-charitable giving—nine times out of time, they are giving to the economy for the good of their health, hopefully. The notion that dividends should be taxed just like every other income starts to erode the idea that as a Government and a society we want to reward risk taking.
In future Budgets, I hope that Chancellors will find a way to re-instil the sense in ordinary working people that they should think about starting and building their own business. Sadly, over the last couple of years, the number of people contemplating starting their own business has dropped. A couple of years ago, it was about 39% to 40%; according to the latest survey, it is now only about 14%, and the single largest barrier that puts them off is access to capital—the ability to get the money to start a business.
Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)
What is my hon. Friend’s view of the fact that many economists, notably the American economist Tyler Cowen, have recently discussed how innovation has been slowing down not just in Britain but in America and across the developed world? Not disregarding his point about taxation, I think that points to something more fundamental about western economies and how the economic system is working.
Kit Malthouse
That is a very good and broad point, and I could talk for a long time about it—[Hon. Members: “Go on.”] I wish. It is definitely my perception, and the evidence certainly shows, however, that the operation of capital is becoming more and more sluggish across the western world.
As I said earlier when I mentioned those top 500 companies, capital is incredibly sluggish, particularly in the EU. In this country it has long been said that that is partly the fault of the housing market, in which so much private capital is tied up because we like to own our homes. In other countries, such as Germany, where that is not the case, capital may be more dynamic, and there may be more capital for investment. Whatever the problem—and we think there is a problem—Governments have a role in unlocking and lubricating the capital that is out there.
I think that both the enterprise investment scheme and the small enterprise investment scheme are good and worthy. Over the last couple of years, however, I have been pressing for them to be deregulated so that it becomes easier for people to invest, and they will not need an accountant, a lawyer and pre-approval from the Revenue to achieve—in the case of the EIS—modest tax reliefs and benefits in the future. We need a scheme that recognises the quasi-charitable nature of giving. I would like to see a system in which people who invested in a business would receive 100% tax relief up front, and then, if they ended up owing capital gains tax, would pay the tax. That would be a nice problem to have. When I have started my businesses, the last thing on my mind has been whether there is any capital gains tax to pay. What has been mostly on my mind has been raising the money, getting going, paying the staff, finding an office, and all the rest of it. I think that such a system would be simple, easy and understandable, and would encourage a great deal more investment in the drugs, therapies and technologies that we need for the future.
The Government have a patient capital review on the cards. It kicked off about a year ago under the chairmanship of Damon Buffini, who, as Members will know, is one of those much benighted private equity guys, and I shall be pressing the Government, hopefully, for its conclusion quite soon.
The second thing that we must bear in mind about the signal that we send with the change in dividend taxation concerns young people. We have talked a good deal about home ownership for young people, but their ability to access assets in general is something that should trouble us all. Those assets include shares. It might be a good idea to give young people an incentive by suggesting that it would be beneficial for them to build up small share portfolios. The Government will say, quite rightly, that they can start individual savings accounts, and of course they can. Dividends are tax-free in an ISA, and given that the ISA allowance rose to £20,000 a year in April, it is possible to accumulate huge amounts of money. The problem with ISAs, however, is that most people hold significant amounts of cash in them. There is no limit to what can be held in a cash ISA, and far too much money in ISAs is held in cash rather than being invested in the productive economy. People should be sent signals that they should be investing in companies.