No-deal Brexit: Schedule of Tariffs

Debate between Barry Gardiner and Conor Burns

Monday 7th October 2019 Commons Chamber

[Conor Burns]

My right hon. Friend has put that argument extremely effectively and powerfully. May I use this opportunity—my debut at the Dispatch Box—to thank him for all the work that he did in the Department? The fact that, in the last couple of weeks, we now have more than 72% of trade agreed in continuity agreements is largely due to the enormous efforts that he put in during his time at the Department. He is absolutely right: the day one tariff regime is determined to protect British consumers in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Those who can avoid a no-deal Brexit are our friends in Europe coming to terms with the Prime Minister in a deal that will be passed by the House and implement the democratic decision in the referendum of 2016.

[Barry Gardiner (Brent North) (Lab)]

I welcome the Minister to the Dispatch Box.

The Government failed to consult properly with business organisations or with trade unions before publishing these tariff measures, ignoring the very producers whose jobs and livelihoods would be most affected. Their refusal to listen and their inability to compromise are now posing grave dangers to our country.

The Government told us that EU manufacturers would be demanding a deal with us. They did not. The Government said that a trade deal with the EU would be the easiest in human history. It is not. The Government told us that they would have 40 trade agreements ready to be signed one second after midnight on Brexit day. They do not. Far from our seeing other countries

“champing at the bit to strike trade deals with a post-Brexit Britain”,

as the Secretary of State claimed, many of those countries already have a trade agreement with us by way of the EU, but it is a trade agreement that will fall away if we leave the EU without a deal. The Government have failed to roll over all the existing deals with approximately 70 countries. That is why, earlier this year, the Government announced emergency proposals to reduce up to 87% of UK tariffs to zero, and to expand our tariff rate quotas in the event of a no deal. As new tariffs are imposed on our exports, damaging jobs, this is a desperate attempt to keep import costs down for British consumers.

So may I ask, first, whether the Minister will publish the Government’s assessment of the price rises that they anticipate would hit UK consumers in default of these tariff rates? The Government advise businesses that, in a no-deal scenario, we would trade under World Trade Organisation rules. However, the Government have yet to have our WTO schedules formally ratified owing to challenges over our tariff rate quotas—challenges that are likely to require substantial compensation to resolve. So, secondly, when does the Department believe that such a challenge may crystallise, and what contingency funds have they laid aside to pay compensation to any complainants?

The lunacy of the Government’s position has been exposed by a country that they previously regarded as a friendly model for their future free trade agreement with Europe. Canada has walked away from trade talks with the UK precisely because these measures would mean free access for Canadian exporters without requiring them to open up access to our goods and services in return. So, thirdly, can the Minister tell us what progress has since been made with respect to Canadian trade talks, and whether any other countries have similarly refused to negotiate as a result of the announcement of zero tariffs by the UK? Under this regime, UK companies will face competition from a flood of cheap imports, undercutting them and putting thousands of UK jobs at risk, without any reciprocal right of free access to their markets for our manufacturers and businesses.

Just about every single major trade body and trade union in the UK has decried the lack of engagement with it, and, in particular, the Department’s lack of understanding in respect of trade defence measures. So, fourthly, I ask the Minister what assessment he has made of the diversion of goods originally destined for other markets at a time when those other markets are increasing tariffs and taking substantive action to tackle the issue of dumping. These are existential threats to our industrial heartlands. The steel sector, the ceramics sector and the automotive sector are all greatly at risk from the proposed measures.

The EU has introduced stringent new safeguard measures to tackle dumping, and is due to set out its approach to tackling circumvention shortly. So, fifthly, does the Minister recognise that this could add further tariffs to our EU exports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, and could drive even more dumped goods to our markets? If so, sixthly, can he explain why the Government have sought to establish the weakest Trade Remedies Authority in the world, and to do so without proper legal authority?

[Conor Burns]

Well, goodness me! We heard not a single word about what the Opposition would do to support the Government in trying to get a deal. We heard no word of compromise. We heard flip-flop after flip-flop, with not a single constructive suggestion from the shadow Secretary of State. Why am I not remotely surprised by that?

The hon. Gentleman talks about a lack of interest. [Interruption.] If the hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Lesley Laird) stopped chuntering and listened, she might hear something. The shadow Secretary of State said there was no interest in trade agreements. What does he think is going on with the United States? With Australia? With New Zealand? Everywhere that I have travelled in this role, I have discovered an enormous interest in what our withdrawal from the European Union means not just for the United Kingdom, but for our ability to do bilateral trade agreements with other countries. As I said in reply to my right hon. Friend the former Secretary of State, we have transitioned over 72% of UK trade in continuity agreements, which will protect us in the event of a no-deal Brexit—which is something that the hon. Gentleman seems determined to advocate, given his lack of support for the Prime Minister.

The hon. Gentleman talks about the Trade Remedies Authority. There is not a single member of the civil service working today who was working in the civil service the last time the United Kingdom had her own independent trade body. The fact that we have established the Trade Remedies Authority, which I visited several weeks ago—[Interruption.] If the hon. Gentleman took a bit of time to understand his brief, he would understand very clearly—[Interruption.] The hon. Gentleman laughs. He should be laughing at himself, because he does not understand the very policy that he shadows. The body is created. The body can function temporarily without the passage of the Trade Bill in the event of a no-deal Brexit, as he should know, and then we will put it on a statutory footing when we introduce a new trade Bill in a new Session of Parliament.

The shadow Minister talked about all the things that we have not done. Let us talk about some of the things that he said he would do. He said that he would respect the referendum. He did not. He said that he would implement the decision of the British people. He will not. What we will do is take the opportunities of having an independent trade policy—the opportunity to sign bilateral trade agreements and the opportunity of free trade—to deliver prosperity to our citizens.

US Tariffs: Scotch Whisky

Debate between Barry Gardiner and Conor Burns

Monday 7th October 2019 Commons Chamber

[Conor Burns]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for those questions. He represents a powerful voice on behalf of the industry and the people of Scotland, along with my hon. Friends around him. It is not just whisky—but I will return to whisky in a second—it is pork, cheese and cashmere. There are a number of areas that will be harmed by the tariffs. Earlier this afternoon, I spoke to Karen Betts, chief executive of the Scottish Whisky Association, who is in South Africa. It is a measure of her concern that she took time out of her schedule to talk to me. The Government are enormously sympathetic, and as I said in my answer, we would urge the United States—tariffs are not in place, and there are 10 days before they are introduced, as my right hon. Friend said—to think again. These tariffs are in no one’s interest. The President of the United States prides himself on being the champion of the little guy, the little business. Well, it is the little business and the little guy who will be harmed most directly if the tariffs come into play.

I can entirely understand my right hon. Friend urging the Government to adjust section 232 countermeasures by removing the tariff on bourbon. We believe in the international rules-based order. It would be the easiest thing in the world simply to say to him, “Yes, we are going to do that.” However, while we remain a member of the European Union, we have to comply with the rules of the European Union. What I would say to him is that when we leave the European Union, nothing is off the table.

[Barry Gardiner (Brent North) (Lab)]

I welcome the urgent question asked by the right hon. Member for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (David Mundell). I welcome, too, the measured tone of the Minister’s response, the factual information that he provided at the Dispatch Box and his support for the international rules-based order.

It is no secret that the American President has sought to define his Administration as one of trade warfare, seeking to put the interests of America first and to repatriate jobs and industry to the USA. He believes that a trade war is one that the US can win. Does the Minister agree that no one wins in a trade war? That much is clear from the spurious Boeing case against the importation of C Series aircraft and the use of section 232 national security measures to prevent steel and aluminium exports to the US, and now again in respect of automotive imports.

The concern for British exporters is that the recent findings of the WTO in relation to aircraft subsidies will be used to secure an advantage for American producers and for American interests in any future trade agreement between our nations. The US trade representative has been clear that the US will impose countermeasures in the first instance and will seek to discuss how to resolve this dispute with the EU thereafter

“in a way that will benefit American workers”.

Other European leaders have been clear in their condemnation of the measures, but our Government have been decidedly more reserved, perhaps for fear of jeopardising any future trade talks. I note in the Government’s response published last week that the UK was seeking clarification from the WTO that the UK was compliant with measures regarding subsidies to Airbus, so I ask the Minister when he expects that such confirmation will be given and whether this indicates a divergence from the EU response.

Many products that these tariffs are being imposed on are subject to geographical indications, which are awarded under trade agreements to protect products of cultural heritage. It is no surprise that these products have been targeted first, as American producers of rival products have made no secret of their desire to destroy such protections. Does the Minister agree that this is not just about responding to the subsidies ruling, but about undermining and eliminating competition in favour of US producers who have long sought to do away with product labelling requirements, restrictive geographical indicators, and even sanitary and phytosanitary standards? Does he agree that going after some of our most iconic products is part of that strategy?

The Scotch whisky exports from this country amount to £6 billion a year—21% of all our food and drink exports, and 41 bottles a second. That is faster than I can drink it! Scotch whisky is so important to our exports. In fact, I think it is our third largest export, so the Government need to do all they can to protect it. These measures come at a time when the UK Prime Minister still insists that we could have a no-deal Brexit in a matter of days—a scenario under which substantial tariffs could be imposed on our exports to the EU. That would be a double whammy for British producers.

The impact of these tariffs on our biggest markets would be enormous, particularly for products such as Scotch whisky. No amount of new trade agreements overseas could mitigate that imminent threat. The EU is understood to be exploring what position to take in respect of these new tariffs. What role will the Minister’s officials be taking in those discussions, given our pending withdrawal?

[Conor Burns]

I am grateful to the shadow Secretary of State for his support; I think this is a relatively rare but very welcome moment where there will be an outbreak of consensus across the House.

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right to highlight the importance of the Scotch whisky industry to the UK. Whisky is the UK’s biggest single agrifood export, accounting for more than 21% of all UK food and drink exports. In 2018, exports of all whisky from the UK totalled £4.8 billion, of which the Scotch Whisky Association claims £4.7 billion is Scotch whisky. Scotch whisky is the biggest single contributor to the UK balance of trade in goods, and the largest single market for UK exports of all whisky—not just Scotch whisky—by value is the United States, which imported more than £1 billion-worth in 2018 or a volume of 84,791 tonnes.

Beyond that, a further £268 million is injected into the economy through the supply chain, leading to a UK-wide impact of just under £5 billion. Some 40,000 jobs are directly supported by the Scotch whisky industry, 7,000 of which are in rural areas of Scotland. This is an absolutely vital sector to the United Kingdom and one that we are determined to do everything we can to protect.

The shadow Secretary of State will have heard me say to Mr Speaker earlier that the dispute that has led to these threatened tariffs in 10 days’ time is a very long and complex one and is being governed by the investigations at the WTO. It is regrettable, although we accept it, that we were found not to be in compliance and the WTO has given the United States permission to go down this route.

The hon. Gentleman asked me about our belief that we are now completely compliant and have taken the remedial measures necessary to bring ourselves into compliance in this dispute. We hope that that will happen within the next couple of months. We are pressing the WTO for an early decision on that, because the evidence base on this stuff is incredibly important, particularly in our conversations with the United States.

I am anxious this afternoon to dial down the atmosphere and not engage in deep personal attacks on people in other countries. The hon. Gentleman was very restrained, and rightly so, in what he said. We want to keep it on the issues. We think that the proposed tariff is unfair, wrong and unjust, and if we can demonstrate that we are now in compliance in this very long-running dispute and have taken the necessary measures, I hope that we can engage calmly with the United States.

I hope the hon. Gentleman will agree that one of the reasons why the United Kingdom is so internationally necessary, and why our taking up our position again in the WTO when we leave the EU is a good thing and is widely welcomed internationally, is that we believe in the international rules-based order. We believe that any fair, reasoned, rational observer who looks at this will conclude that these tariffs are unjust, unfair and wrong and are targeting people who have done absolutely nothing in terms of the dispute that has given birth to these retaliatory measures. I hope that, with constructive engagement and calm dialogue, we may persuade the United States to think again.

European Union (Withdrawal) Act

Debate between Barry Gardiner and Conor Burns

Monday 14th January 2019 Commons Chamber

[Barry Gardiner]

The hon. Gentleman may not have noticed, but I did give way.

Students should never have been part of our net migration figures, and immigration should be proclaimed loudly by every Member to be an important and hugely beneficial resource for our economy. Yes, free movement of people will end when we leave the EU, because it is a function of the treaties of the EU, but that does not mean that we should not operate a system of immigration controls with the EU that allows broad and reciprocal access to all our citizens in a way that maximises the benefits to all our economies. That is what our businesses need: access to skills.

For all that, however, some businesses are willing to accept the Prime Minister’s deal. They have expressed grudging acceptance of it, and some have even written to their Members of Parliament asking them to support it. Well, there is the proof that “Project Fear” works both ways. The Government are holding a gun to business’s head with the threat of no deal, and, given this Hobson’s choice, some have been blackmailed into acquiescing in the Prime Minister’s proposal. I am sure that their acquiescence will have been cemented by the cheery words of the Secretary of State this morning, when he advised the nation that he did not regard no deal as “national suicide”, and that, although he grudgingly accepted that it would “damage our economy”, he thought that it was “survivable”—and this from the man who once said that a trade deal with the EU would be

“the easiest in human history”.

It is so good that the Secretary of State and the Chancellor are sharing the debate. I had some little hope that the Chancellor might have sat with him and taken him through the economic analyses. With no change in migration, no deal would see the UK’s GDP 7.7% lower than it would otherwise be. According to the estimates of the Office for Budget Responsibility, that is £164 billion if translated into the current fiscal year. With zero net EEA worker inflows, no deal would see the UK’s GDP 9.3%, or £198 billion, lower than otherwise. That is a heck of a lot of Brexit buses for the NHS: 565.

Unfortunately, during the first part of the debate, the Secretary of State told the House effectively to ignore all the Chancellor’s carefully prepared scenarios and analyses. Back in December, he said:

“It is not realistic to expect that there would be no potential shift, if necessary, in Government fiscal policy, or in the Bank of England’s monetary policy, or changes to what the Government will be able to do on tariffs. We have to be realistic and try to understand what those things are. To try to confuse forecasts and scenarios, intentionally or otherwise, is not helpful to the debate. ”—[Official Report, 6 December 2018; Vol. 650, c. 1203-4.]

[Conor Burns (Bournemouth West) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Barry Gardiner]

No.

Actually, what is not helpful to the debate is to dismiss the existing economic modelling without presenting any credible alternative, to fail to provide any analyses of the short-term consequences of the Prime Minister’s deal, and to fail to carry out any analysis at all of the Northern Irish backstop arrangements—and then to have the audacity to expect the nation to blindly trust that no deal is not “national suicide”.

[Conor Burns]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Barry Gardiner]

I will.

[Conor Burns]

Will the hon. Gentleman concede that it is entirely possible that the current Treasury forecasts will prove to be as accurate as the ones that it made before the referendum?

[Barry Gardiner]

I think we should look at what actually happened, and it is relevant to the point that the Secretary of State was trying to make back in December. People are very fond of saying, “There were predictions of disaster and financial meltdown, but nothing happened.” Well, actually, something did happen: I think it was called “£70 billion of quantitative easing”, which the Treasury put into the economy in order to stop the problems.

Of course the Secretary of State once believed that his friends in the Anglosphere would be queuing up to do new trade agreements that would replace any lost GDP growth. The Bank of England has quantified the potential value of those deals at just 0.2%—not 2%, but 0.2%, or one fifth of 1%, or £4.25 billion. Nice to have, but by my reckoning the Secretary of State would still owe me about 533 Brexit buses.

The Prime Minister is fond of saying that her deal is the only one on the table. Well, of course it is; she is the Government, and only the Government are able to negotiate with the EU. That does not mean that there could not be a different deal. The Brexit negotiations have been constrained by the Prime Minister’s red lines. We know that had the red lines been different then the deal would have been different also.

The Father of the House, the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe (Mr Clarke), reminded us in his admonishment of the Home Secretary that

“if we are maintaining an open border where there is a land border, it can only be done in a modern economy by having some form of customs union applying to both sides of the border”.—[Official Report, 5 December 2018; Vol. 650, c. 900.]

That is why we on the Labour Benches have been calling for a new permanent customs union with the EU in which we would have a say over future trade agreements.

When the shadow Chancellor mentioned this previously in our debate the Secretary of State was really rather rude and he reinforced that disparagement today. He reminded the House that under article 3 of the treaty on the functioning of the European Union the EU shall have exclusive competence with regard to the customs union. Of course it does: the treaty binds the member states of the EU and gives the Commission that right to negotiate the terms of any agreement with third-party countries. It does not stop the EU concluding agreements with third-party countries where there is joint control.