Ukraine

Baroness Morgan of Ely Excerpts

Thursday 3rd April 2014 Grand Committee

[Baroness Morgan of Ely (Lab)]

My Lords, the crisis in Crimea and Ukraine is probably the biggest security challenge we have faced in Europe for a generation. We hear from NATO sources that around 35,000 Russian troops are massed near the Ukrainian eastern border along with tanks and special forces. They have the logistical back-up to keep them there for some considerable time, and although we have heard recently that Russian troops are being withdrawn, we need to be on our guard to ensure that this is a significant pull-out of troops rather than a rotation of forces. Either way, we are a long way from seeing the end of this crisis and its consequences.

Putin’s speech on 18 March was unforgiving in its tone and aggression, but it is worth listening to it to gain an understanding of the sense that Russia needs to feel strong again and the humiliation that it felt after the break-up of the USSR. Of course, Russia would love to feel powerful again. Its initial moves to establish a new customs Eurasian trade bloc have been thwarted by the Ukrainian public, who made it clear that if there was a choice they would rather have a customs union with the EU. Russia has broken with the tradition that has developed since the end of the Cold War that assumes that disputes will be settled in Europe by diplomacy rather than military might. We were starting to be complacent in the belief that the only real currency of power in Europe was its economic rather than military might.

The crisis offers a test for two international organisations in particular—the EU and NATO. If they play it well, using deft and delicate diplomacy, we could see the situation settle. If they play it badly, it could have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine and the world.

The EU has now signed an association agreement with Ukraine promising co-operation and convergence over policy, legislation and regulation across a broad range of areas. Gradually and over time, therefore, the trade relationship between Ukraine and the EU—its second biggest trading partner after Russia and responsible for a third of Ukraine’s external trade—will be anchored in a market system that will insist on converging standards, both commercially and in terms of the values of the European Union such as democracy and the world of law. That pathway has started already. The EU loan was mentioned by the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner. I am very pleased that she initiated this debate, and I thank her for her insightful introduction. But in the long term, we should see economic stability in the country and the rule of law that the noble Viscount, Lord Colville, and my noble friend Lord Giddens talked about.

The EU has to act as one on the issue of Russia if it is to maintain any leverage. The energy vulnerability of the continent means that it can proceed only with extreme caution as 30% of its gas imports are from Russia. That is worth £60 billion to the Russian economy, so the EU has an important lever.

We do not need just to reset the energy market in the UK. We need to reset it in the EU as well. We have been talking about it for a long time. The initial energy debate in the EU started when Russia turned off the taps to Ukraine in the early 2000s. We have tinkered about with it, but we have not really taken the energy issue within Europe very seriously. This should be a call to action. However, we have to be very careful not to provoke Russia into isolation in Europe in the long term. Russia, understandably, does not want to feel hemmed in. That is why it is crucial that NATO desists from offering Ukraine full membership of the organisation. NATO promised Gorbachev, after German reunification, that there would be no future expansion to the east. That promise has been broken time and again. I am sure that many of the old Eastern bloc countries are quite pleased at the moment, especially those with Russian minorities, that that promise was broken, but we have to understand the importance of making sure that NATO does not welcome Ukraine as a full member.

In 2010, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to exclude the goal of,

“integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership”.

The two international organisations now need to show their mettle and their commitment to long-term stability in Europe in the forthcoming weeks. Yes, a strong message needs to be sent to Putin that tearing up international agreements and breaking international law is totally unacceptable and that there are and will be consequences, but we must be careful not to give any excuse for inflaming a situation that could lead to tragedy on our EU borders. If we manage that, we could end up with our ultimate goal: a democratic, open and liberal Ukraine, which is free from corruption and does not bully minorities, and a Russian neighbour that does not feel threatened by encirclement and will come to terms with the loss of empire. The Government continue to enjoy Labour support for the way they have handled this crisis so far.