Wales: National Assembly Elections

Baroness Gale Excerpts

Monday 18th June 2012 Grand Committee

[Baroness Gale]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his opening remarks and I thank all those who have spoken. We have had a good typical Welsh debate, and a welcome contribution from my noble friend from Scotland, for which I thank him very much. The speeches set out the often different views of the political parties in Wales, and those of the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan. I note that the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, mentioned the remarks of Peter Hain, who said that there could be confusion about the different boundaries. He said that in relation to having elections on the same day, rather than about the confusion of having permanently different boundaries for Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. The noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, praised my noble friend Lady Morgan of Ely for being on the Front Bench. However, I think he elevated her a little too soon. I have absolutely no doubt that one day she will be on our Front Bench. I asked her if she would like to sit with me to keep me company. Obviously, her great speech made one think that she was on the Front Bench.

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

I do not want to elevate myself too high, but sometimes I have the eye of the prophet.

[Baroness Gale]

I can agree with that. I thank my noble friend for her great speech in which she mentioned that the Green Paper expressed hope that there would be no advantage to any party. The noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, mentioned the voting figures and how things were working out, and raised the issue of party-political advantage. I welcome the Secretary of State saying that there should be no advantage to any political party. However, when one looks at the voting figures and the regional list results that my noble friend Lord Touhig mentioned, one sees that on an all-Wales basis Labour got 36.9% of the vote—the highest percentage—and two seats. The Liberal Democrats got 8% of the vote and four seats.

[Baroness Randerson]

The noble Baroness overlooks the point of the list system, which is to put right the disproportionality of the first past the post system. In the three recent elections in Wales, the overall proportionality of both list and constituency seats resulted in the three main parties getting roughly the same number of seats as they got percentages of the vote, although the Labour Party always got a higher percentage of seats than of the vote.

[Baroness Gale]

I thank the noble Baroness for that intervention. Perhaps I may remind noble Lords that it was the Labour Party that brought in devolution and agreed that there would be an element of proportionality. We wanted a brand-new institution in 1999. I and many others in the Labour Party did not want it to look like the old Glamorgan County Council that many of us could remember, which was totally dominated by the Labour Party and had very few representatives from other parties. With the new institution we wanted to involve all parties so that everybody who voted for the smaller parties would have a chance to be represented in the Welsh Assembly. I am very proud that the Labour Party was able to do that.

Gender balance has been mentioned a few times this afternoon. The gender balance in the Welsh Assembly has been pretty good. Again, much of this was brought about by the Labour Party. We guessed that we would win most of our seats in the constituencies, so our policy was to have an equal number of male and female candidates. As a result, a good number of women were elected in the first election, and by 2003 there were an equal number of men and women. It was the first democratically elected institution in the world to have an equal number of men and women. Proportionality does not necessarily mean that you will get more women unless every party puts them at the top of the list.

As my noble friend Lord Touhig said, this consultation paper has been brought out at a time when the people of Wales have much to concern them. Many are concerned about their jobs, or lack of them—young people are worrying about whether they will get a job—and about the lack of economic growth. I refer, for example, to young couples wanting to buy a house. These are the issues worrying Welsh people today. I assure the Minister, as other noble Lords did, that they are not particularly concerned about electoral arrangements for the Welsh Assembly, which must surely come at the bottom of their list of their concerns. Unfortunately, Welsh people have much more important things to worry about.

Since the referendum of 1997 when the Welsh people voted in favour of devolution, all major changes have been made after either a manifesto commitment or a referendum that allowed them to decide how they wanted devolution to evolve. We are not advocating a referendum before any changes are made, but there should be at least a manifesto commitment in the spirit of devolution to allow Welsh people to make their views known.

The Green Paper offers four matters to be consulted on: the size of the constituencies, the ratio of list Members to the constituencies, and the retention of 60 seats, although a number of noble Lords today have mentioned 80 seats. Indeed, I thought I heard for the first time the figure of 90 mentioned. Eighty seats have been talked about in the past, but everyone recognises that this is not the time to increase the number of seats in the Assembly. The Green Paper also asks whether there should be a fixed term of five years, whether candidates should stand for both constituency and regional lists, and whether AMs can also be MPs or Peers.

We already have four-year fixed terms, but it has been agreed that this Assembly will serve a five-year term until 2016 to avoid clashing with the planned general election in 2015. Should we now move to a permanent five-year fixed term? If we revert back to a four-year term, we will get the same problems in 2020 when the general election and the Assembly elections would be held on the same day. I think that the general feeling is to hold the elections at separate times. We all know why that would probably be for the best, but it is right that we should consult on the matter. However, there is a widely held view that the two elections should not clash.

In the Government of Wales Act 2006, the Labour Government did away with what we believed was the anomaly of allowing a candidate to stand both for a constituency seat and in the regional list. That was a manifesto commitment made for the 2005 election. It was something that confused the Welsh electorate. A candidate who was defeated in the constituency could then become a Member of the Welsh Assembly by virtue of being on the regional list. It is now clear that defeated candidates in the constituency cannot gain a list seat; they must make a choice on whether to stand for the constituency or in the regional list.

Should people be able to serve in the Assembly and in the House of Commons or the House of Lords? It will be interesting to see what comes out of this consultation. There is a view that there should be some degree of overlap for a period of time because if someone who is a Member of the House of Commons is then elected to the Assembly, there should be a period of overlap to allow exchanges to take place. That happened in 1999 when a number of MPs were elected to the Welsh Assembly and stood down at the next general election. It also happens the other way around, with AMs being elected to the House of Commons.

The present arrangement of 40 constituency seats and 20 list seats, a ratio of two-thirds to one-third, is how the Assembly has been elected since 1999. If the boundaries change and the number of constituency and list seats changes from the present ratio of 40:20 to 30:30, this will be regarded as a major change, not just a minor adjustment in how Members of the Assembly are elected. The Secretary of State says in the Green Paper that the Government prefer option 2, to make the parliamentary boundaries and the Assembly boundaries the same. She states that there is,

“greater complexity in having different boundaries for Parliamentary and Assembly elections than the present arrangement”.

However, Scotland has different boundaries, which means that an analysis could be made to see if there are difficulties for Scottish electors when they cast their votes. However, to my knowledge, no analysis has been made. There is no evidence to suggest that there are problems in Scotland and therefore no evidence to justify the case the Secretary of State is making for the 30:30 ratio. We note that the Government are not proposing such a measure for Scotland.

The fundamental point of principle here is that it is for the people of Wales to decide on major changes to their electoral arrangements, either through a referendum or by a manifesto commitment. In a debate on the Green Paper in the Welsh Assembly on 12 June, First Minister Carwyn Jones said:

“I received an assurance on two occasions from the Prime Minister that there would be no change without the consent of the Assembly, and I am on record as saying that. I took that assurance in good faith and I expect it to be adhered to. However, the reality is that Scotland will continue to have different boundaries for Scottish Parliament and UK Parliament constituencies. If it works in Scotland, what evidence is there that it could not work in Wales? None is offered”.

I am very pleased to see the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas, in his place today, taking part in our debate. He has confirmed that when he was Presiding Officer he too received assurances from the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State that there would be no changes to the boundaries to coincide with the Westminster boundaries. What are we to believe regarding commitments given by the Prime Minister as far as Wales is concerned? Last year we had a UK referendum on the voting system to the House of Commons but at least we knew this was a commitment of the coalition Government. Where was the commitment for this Green Paper? As the First Minister said last week, it has come “out of the blue”.

The Green Paper is before us and my party will play a constructive role by making a submission to the consultation. I understand that the Government will publish their response in November. When could we think of having a further debate on the Government’s proposals, and when can we expect legislation? Finally, I ask the Minister: why are the coalition Government reluctant to allow the Welsh people to decide on these matters for themselves? Why instead are they taking this top-down approach? It is our belief that it is for the people of Wales to decide what kind of electoral system they want. Let them decide what they believe is the best system to serve democracy in Wales. I look forward to the Minister’s response.