Middle East

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, I, too, thank the Minister for his expansive coverage of the countries of the Middle East in today’s debate. I will focus on only three countries. Noble Lords will note the expansive talent on these Benches and several colleagues will comment on other parts of the region. My focus will be on Iran, Israel and Syria. All three are interlinked in a more complex manner than just being geographically proximate.

Let me go directly to the most intractable foreign policy issue in recent times—namely, the concern that Iran is moving towards a nuclear weapons capability. The latest IAEA report of November 2011 concluded that this remained a possibility; hence the belated move towards strong sanctions by the international community. We know that Israel considers the idea of a nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat. I respect that concern and would say to it that its concerns are well understood beyond its own borders. We are all aware of the dangers of nuclear proliferation across the Middle East, as may well happen if the NPT is wantonly disregarded by Iran. We are also aware, however, that Israel stands on shaky moral ground when, as a nuclear weapon state itself, it seeks, potentially through the use of force, to prevent another state’s programme, especially where the stated purpose of that programme is civilian nuclear development.

Even if we were to accept that Iran is moving towards a nuclear threshold state—the jury is still out on that—we know from experience elsewhere that reaching a nuclear threshold is not to say that it is anything other than a deterrent position. If we look at North Korea versus South Korea, India versus Pakistan, or, indeed, the United States versus the Soviet Union during the Cold War, it is not to say that this situation is sui generis. We have unhappily lived alongside states which have had nuclear weapon capability and which face hostile neighbours. Thankfully, we have reached a modus operandi within those constraints.

I appreciate too that opinion in Israel is divided on the use of military strikes against Iran. In fact, my Israeli interlocutors have gone beyond the terminology of using phrases such as “military strikes” and have spoken candidly about “war”. It is clear that the experts in intelligence and the military itself in Israel are more conscious of the unpredictability of war against Iran, arguing publically as the retired head of Mossad, Mier Dagan, has done that this could result in a new catastrophic Middle East war. Therefore, it is with some relief that one reads in the Israeli press that a powerful new coalition is forming around his view to counter the politicians in their drumbeat to war.

Let me also address the other argument often deployed in Israel; namely, that sanctions are not working or that they are not working fast enough. Smart sanctions have worked in the past and are increasingly effective against Iran. Iran has started stockpiling grain reserves to pre-empt future food shortages. We now have the implementation of controls on financial transactions through SWIFT, which serves as a crucial conduit for Iran to repatriate billions of dollars worth of earnings from oil sales and other exports, which is already having an impact here and now. Major foreign exchange houses in the United Arab Emirates have stopped handling the Iranian rial over the past few weeks. This has resulted in a depreciation of more than 50 per cent in its value. Countries which are dependent on Iranian oil have quietly moved to other suppliers and inflation in domestic prices is biting.

Domestically, the Iranian political dust is settling since the 2 March elections to the Majlis. If, as looks likely, Ayatollah Khamenei’s supporters prevail, this may well not be a bad thing from the international community’s perspective. The Ayatollah’s fatwa ruling that the use of nuclear weapons is completely contrary to the teachings of Islam has been reiterated as recently as in the last few weeks. This, too, should provide reassurance to Israel. It is perhaps no coincidence that Iran has finally agreed to a return to the P5-plus-one talks. It is now imperative that it allows further IAEA inspections to go ahead, particularly to allow access to the Parchin nuclear facility, as it has announced it will do.

Let me turn now to the situation in Syria. As a Liberal who is committed to the emerging norm of Responsibility to Protect, it is with some regret that I conclude that any form of western military engagement is out of the question. Syria is not Libya. The humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Syria has deep geopolitical roots. This is a civil war by proxy. We know of Russia’s strategic interest in Syria, not least as it has a naval base at Tartus, and 10 per cent of its total global arms sales are to Syria, where Russian shipments continue unabated. We know, too, about the long-standing Russian-Saudi Arabian rivalry, not least during the years of communism and then more recently in Afghanistan. The alignment of Russian and Iranian Shia interests against those of Sunni Islam is all too evident. The re-election of Mr Putin in Russia does not help either, and all indications are that we are in this for the long haul.

Hence it is so regrettable that Qataris and Saudi Arabia have resolved to take up arms shipments to the Free Syrian Army. The proposal of the Tunisian president at the recent Friends of Syria meeting was to resolve the situation through the negotiation of a safe exit for Bashar al-Assad and the formation of a transitional government. It should have been discussed further. It was a proposal worth exploring, and it is regrettable that the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister walked out of the meeting at that point. The proposal to add arms to the conflict cannot be one designed to put out the fire.

The fact that these external factors are resulting in the sacrifice of the lives of innocent civilians does not for a minute exonerate the Syrian leadership of its responsibility for these crimes, and while we cannot do more than move for sanctions through the UN Security Council, we must do more to make the sanctions bite. Like Iran, it might actually prepare the ground for the beginning of negotiations to a ceasefire. All we can do at the moment is to hope that the efforts of the former UN Secretary General will bear fruit. If they do not, we have in the EU to think again collectively, and in the UK individually, as to our own responsibility in this humanitarian tragedy.