UK Trade Performance

Alan Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 1st May 2024 Commons Chamber

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)]

With these selective statistics, the Secretary of State would clearly make a good cherry-picker, while clutching at straws at the same time. The reality is that we still have a cost of living crisis, and I would welcome her to my constituency to tell people there how rosy things apparently are in the UK. Real GDP growth in the UK—growth since before the pandemic—is just 1%. That is one third of the EU average figure, and one eighth of US growth.

The here and now figures are even worse. The UK economy shrank in 2023, whereas there was significant growth in the G7 and the OECD average. Now is probably the only time in living history that the UK economy has been on a par with Germany’s—but sadly that is because Germany is also an international outlier in lacking economic growth. Volumes of UK goods imports and exports are 7.4% smaller than in 2018—the biggest five-year decline for which comparative records exist.

The Secretary of State is right that exports to the EU are up, but imports from the EU are also up, so the trading deficit with the EU has increased by more than 5%. Allianz Trade has estimated that the introduction yesterday of new customs and checks procedures on animal and plant products and goods entering the UK will cost British business £2 billion a year. UK Energy also estimates that energy bills are £1 billion a year higher due to post-Brexit trading arrangements.

Instead of talking up the minimal savings from what the Secretary of State calls “cutting red tape”, I wish she would tell the truth about the trading cost increases resulting from Brexit red tape for businesses in the UK, not to mention the impact of labour shortages. This Parliament is set to break a lot of records: we have the biggest drop in living standards, the longest decline in GDP per capita, the steepest five-year decline in volume of trade, and the stock market shrinking at its fastest pace in history. Which of these record-breaking achievements for broken Britain is she most proud of?

[Kemi Badenoch]

It was very interesting to hear the hon. Gentleman talk about his constituents. What he should tell them—certainly what I would, if I was there—is that under the seven-year Administration of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP welfare economy grew at half the growth rate of England’s economy. If the SNP had achieved growth in line with England, it could have increased Scotland’s economy by £15 billion. Instead, that welfare economy means no growth, because of Scotland having the highest income tax rates in the UK, and higher wages in the public sector than in the private sector. The SNP’s policies are not helping.

The hon. Gentleman asks questions—[Interruption.] He does not want to hear the facts, but I will give him the facts. He talks about the real, pre-pandemic GDP figure. Of course the pandemic had an impact; we cannot stand here and pretend that it did not. Even the statistics I am quoting showed that covid had a far bigger impact than leaving the EU ever will, just as Russia’s war in Ukraine will have a far bigger impact than leaving the EU. He talks about international outliers, which shows that he is the one who is cherry-picking. We have to look at our peer countries, because we will not grow as quickly as developing countries. It is astonishing that he is also complaining that imports from the EU are up. That shows that, despite our leaving the European Union, trade is doing well and things are going well. If his Scottish Government took some lessons from the UK Government, they would see much better things happening for their constituents.