Iran

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Tuesday 19th October 2021 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, this short debate is a helpful opportunity to attempt to offer an insight into the complex world of Iran. Some are of the view that modern-day Iran, which is now pivoting towards the East, is of the West’s making. The corrupt leadership in Iran does not represent its people, who should not be punished with policy failures and requiring long-term planning.

At the core of this evening’s short debate is the strategy to resolve the JCPOA. What is the Government’s strategy to bring this all to an end? What is made of Iran’s increasing implied threat of going military on its nuclear programme unless the world does this or the other? Is the regime trusted in negotiating in good faith?

Although the Revolutionary Guard is loyal to the regime, in practical terms the regime is more reliant on the Revolutionary Guard than the Revolutionary Guard is on the leadership, who consequently have become more assertive. Iran is in reality a de facto military Government, with all key positions controlled by commanders. They are in full control of the running of the economy of the country. The Iranian people, the West and the world are hostage. How long is the West going to allow this behaviour to continue?

Worryingly, Iran will more increasingly negotiate through hostage diplomacy; China has provided evidence just recently that it can be turned to an advantage. This is a dangerous turn of events, with the potential to get out of hand globally. A crucial question is: how will the Government respond if Iran, or any other state, continues to follow a policy of hostage-taking to achieve its goals?

I fear that the raising of dual citizens might play more into the hands of Tehran as there is an association with the return of money that is legally due for return. While the regime believes that it has right on its side, it will do nothing. I sincerely hope that I am proved wrong. The UK not returning the tank money plays into the hands of the leadership as it is an easy message to explain that it is the UK that is not abiding by the rule of law.

There still remains the recognition by Iran of Israel. It should not be forgotten that Israel also owes money from the days of the Shah, giving credence to an international coalition against it. Some are of the singular view that there is only one state that has the means to bring about resolution to the situation in Iran and the region: Israel.

In today’s climate, we should forget regional negotiations with the US at the table. We are entering a cold-war phase, with Iran having cut a 25-year deal to give first rights to Russia and China on construction, intelligence and military matters. Where does this leave us? There is, however, one core fundamental: the language of power is all that is understood. When faced with credible condemnation pressure, the leadership buckles. Will the Minister set out before the House where the Government perceive the regime’s weak points are so that we can all join in to make for a better world with Iran at the table?