Financial Statement and Budget Report

Debate between Nusrat Ghani and Rachel Reeves

Wednesday 30th October 2024 Commons Chamber

[The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Rachel Reeves)]

Madam Deputy Speaker, on 4 July, the country voted for change. This Government were given a mandate: to restore stability to our economy and to begin a decade of national renewal; to fix the foundations and deliver change through responsible leadership in the national interest. That is our task, and I know that we can achieve it.

My belief in Britain burns brighter than ever, and the prize on offer is immense. As my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister said on Monday, change must be felt: more pounds in people’s pockets; an NHS that is there when we need it; and an economy that is growing, creating wealth and opportunity for all, because that is the only way to improve living standards. The only way to drive economic growth is to invest, invest, invest. There are no shortcuts, and, to deliver that investment, we must restore economic stability and turn the page on the last 14 years.

This is not the first time that it has fallen to the Labour party to rebuild Britain. In 1945, it was the Labour party that rebuilt our country out of the rubble of the second world war. In 1964, it was the Labour party that rebuilt Britain with the white heat of technology, and, in 1997, it was the Labour party that rebuilt our schools and our hospitals. Today, it falls to this Labour party—to this Labour Government—to rebuild Britain once again. And while this is the first Budget in more than 14 years to be delivered by a Labour Chancellor, it is the first Budget in our country’s history to be delivered by a woman. I am deeply proud to be Britain’s first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer. To girls and young women everywhere, I say: let there be no ceiling on your ambition, your hopes and your dreams. Along with the pride that I feel standing here today, there is also a responsibility to pass on a fairer society and a stronger economy to the next generation of women.

Madam Deputy Speaker, the Conservative party failed our country: its austerity broke our national health service; its Brexit deal harmed British businesses; and its mini-Budget left families paying the price with higher mortgages. The British people have inherited the Conservative party’s failure: a black hole in the public finances; public services on their knees; a decade of low growth; and the worst Parliament on record for living standards.

Let me begin with the public finances. In July, I exposed a £22 billion black hole at the heart of the previous Government’s plans—a series of promises that they made, but had no money to deliver—covered up from the British people and covered up from this House. The Treasury’s reserve, set aside for genuine emergencies, was spent three times over just three months into the financial year. Today, on top of the detailed document that I provided to the House in July, the Government are publishing a line-by-line breakdown of the £22 billion black hole that we inherited, which shows hundreds of unfunded pressures on the public finances this year, and into the future too.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has published its own review of the circumstances around the spring Budget forecast. It says that the previous Government

“did not provide the OBR with all the information to them”

and that, had the OBR known about these

“undisclosed spending pressures that have since come to light”,

then its spring Budget forecast for spending would have been “materially different”.

Let me be clear: that means that any comparison between today’s forecast and the OBR’s March forecast is false, because the previous Government hid the reality of their public spending plans. Yet at the very same Budget, they made another £10 billion-worth of cuts to national insurance. It was the height of irresponsibility, and they knew it. They had run out of road, and they called an election to avoid making difficult choices. So let me make this promise to the British people: never again will we allow a Government to play fast and loose with the public finances and never again will we allow a Government to hide the true state of our public finances from our independent forecaster. That is why I can today confirm that we will implement in full the 10 recommendations from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s review.

The country has inherited not just broken public finances, but broken public services. The British people can see and feel that in their everyday lives: NHS waiting lists at record levels; children in portacabins as school roofs crumble; trains that do not arrive; rivers filled with polluted waste; prisons overflowing; crimes that are not investigated; and criminals who are not punished. That is the country’s inheritance from the Conservative Government. They had no plan to improve our public services and they had no plan to put our public finances on a sustainable footing—quite the opposite.

Since 2021, there have been no detailed plans for departmental spending set out beyond this year, and the previous Government’s plans relied on a baseline for spending this year, which we now know was wrong because it did not take into account the £22 billion black hole. They also failed to budget for costs that they knew would materialise, including funding for vital compensation schemes for victims of two terrible injustices—[Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)]

Order. I have just spoken about respecting colleagues. The public are watching, and they want to hear what the Chancellor has to say. Simmer down.

[Rachel Reeves]

I would politely suggest that hon. Members listen to this, because it includes funding for vital compensation schemes for victims of two terrible injustices: the infected blood scandal and the Post Office Horizon scandal.

The Leader of the Opposition rightly made an unequivocal apology for the injustice of the infected blood scandal on behalf of the British state, but he did not budget for the costs of compensation. Today, for the very first time, we will provide specific funding to compensate those infected and those affected in full, with £11.8 billion in this Budget. I am also today setting aside £1.8 billion to compensate victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal—redress that is long overdue for the pain and injustice that they have suffered.

The leadership campaign for the Conservative party has now been going on for over three months, but in all that time there has been not one single apology for what they did to our country. The Conservative party has not changed—but this is a changed Labour party and we will restore stability to our country once again. The scale and seriousness of the situation that we have inherited cannot be underestimated. Together, the hole in our public finances this year, which recurs every year, the compensation schemes that the previous Government did not fund, and their failure to assess the scale of the challenges facing our public services, means that this Budget raises taxes by £40 billion. Any Chancellor standing here today would have to face this reality, and any responsible Chancellor would take action. That is why today I am restoring stability to our public finances and rebuilding our public services.

As a former economist at the Bank of England, I know what it means to respect our economic institutions. I put on record my thanks to the Governor of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the independent Monetary Policy Committee. Today, I can confirm that we will maintain the MPC’s target of 2% inflation, as measured by the 12-month increase in the consumer prices index. I thank James Bowler, the permanent secretary to the Treasury, and my team of officials. I also thank my predecessors as Chancellor of the Exchequer for their wise counsel as I have prepared for this Budget. In particular, I thank the former right hon. Member for Spelthorne for his invaluable advice in this weekend’s papers, where he concluded that his mini-Budget “wasn’t perfect”. For once, he and I are in absolute agreement. Finally, I thank Richard Hughes and his team at the Office for Budget Responsibility for their work in preparing today’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Let me take the House through that forecast. The cost of living crisis under the last Government stretched household finances to their limit, with inflation hitting a peak of above 11%. Today, the OBR says that CPI inflation will average 2.5% this year, 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2.0% in 2029.

Moving on to economic growth, today’s Budget marks an end to short-termism, so I am pleased that, for the first time, the OBR has published not only five-year growth forecasts but a detailed assessment of the growth impacts of our policies over the next decade. The new charter for Budget responsibility, which I am publishing today, confirms that this will become a permanent feature of our framework. The OBR forecasts that real GDP growth will be 1.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028 and 1.6% in 2029. The OBR is clear: this Budget will permanently increase the supply capacity of the economy, boosting long-term growth. [Interruption.] It may sound shocking to Conservative Members, but this Government are boosting long-term economic growth.

Every Budget that I deliver will be focused on our mission to grow the economy, and underpinning that mission are the seven key pillars of our growth strategy, developed and delivered alongside business, and all driven forward by our excellent Financial Secretary to the Treasury. The first and most important is to restore economic stability. That is my focus today. Secondly, increasing investment and building new infrastructure is vital for productivity, so we are catalysing £70 billion of investment through our national wealth fund, and we are transforming our planning rules to get Britain building again. Thirdly, to ensure that all parts of the UK can realise their potential we are working with the devolved Governments and partnering with our mayors to develop local growth plans. Fourthly, to improve employment prospects and skills we are creating Skills England, delivering our plans to make work pay and tackling economic inactivity.

Fifthly, we are launching our long-term modern industrial strategy and expanding opportunities for our small and medium-sized businesses to grow. Sixthly, to drive innovation, we are protecting record funding for research and development to harness the full potential of the UK’s science base. Finally, to maximise the growth benefits of our clean energy mission, we have confirmed key investments, such as carbon capture and storage, to create jobs in our industrial heartlands. Our approach is already having an impact: just two weeks ago, we delivered an international investment summit that saw businesses commit £63.5 billion of investment into our country, creating nearly 40,000 jobs across the United Kingdom. But we cannot undo 14 years of damage in one go. Economic growth will be our mission for the duration of this Parliament.

In our manifesto, we set out the fiscal rules that would guide this Government. I am confirming those today: our stability rule and our investment rule. The stability rule means that we will bring the current Budget into balance so that we do not borrow to fund day-to-day spending. We will meet that rule in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From then on, we will balance the current Budget in the third year of every Budget, held annually each autumn. That will provide a tougher constraint on day-to-day spending, so that difficult decisions cannot be constantly delayed or deferred. The OBR says that the current Budget will be in deficit by £26.2 billion in 2025-26 and by £5.2 billion in 2026-27, before moving into surplus of £10.9 billion in 2027-28, £9.3 billion in 2028-29 and £9.9 billion in 2029-30, meeting our stability rule two years early.

Monthly public sector finance data show that Government borrowing in the first six months of this year was already running significantly higher than the OBR’s March forecast, and the OBR confirmed today that borrowing in this financial year is now £127 billion, reflecting the inheritance left by the Conservative party. The increase in the net cash requirement in 2024-25 is lower than the increase in borrowing, at £22.3 billion higher than the spring forecast. Because of the action that we are taking, borrowing falls from 4.5% of GDP this year to 2.1% of GDP by the end of the forecast. Public sector net borrowing will be £105.6 billion in 2025-26, £88.5 billion in 2026-27, £72.2 billion in 2027-28, £71.9 billion in 2028-29 and £70.6 billion in 2029-30.

Before I come to tax, it is vital that we are driving efficiency and reducing wasteful spending. In July, to begin dealing with our inheritance, I made £5.5 billion of savings this year. Today we are setting a 2% productivity, efficiency and savings target for all Departments to meet next year by using technology more effectively and joining up services across Government. As set out in our manifesto, I will shortly be appointing our covid corruption commissioner. They will lead our work to uncover those companies that used a national emergency to line their own pockets, because that money belongs in our public services, and taxpayers want it back. I can confirm today that David Goldstone has been appointed chair of the new office for value for money to help us realise the benefits from every pound of public spending.

Today, I am also taking three steps to ensure that welfare spending is more sustainable. First, we inherited the last Government’s plans to reform the work capability assessment. We will deliver those savings as part of our fundamental reforms to the health and disability benefits system that my right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary will bring forward.

Secondly, I can today announce a crackdown on fraud in our welfare system—often the work of criminal gangs. We will expand the DWP’s counter-fraud teams, using innovative new methods to prevent illegal activity, and provide new legal powers to crack down on fraudsters, including direct access to bank accounts to recover debt. That package saves £4.3 billion a year by the end of the forecast.

Thirdly, the Government will shortly be publishing the “Get Britain Working” White Paper, tackling the root causes of inactivity with an integrated approach across health, education and welfare, and we will provide £240 million for 16 trailblazer projects, targeted at those who are economically inactive and most at risk of being out of education, employment or training, to get people into work and reduce the benefits bill.

Before a Government can consider any change to a tax rate or threshold, they must ensure that people pay what they already owe. We will invest to modernise His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs systems using the very best technology, and recruit additional HMRC compliance and debt staff. We will clamp down on the umbrella companies that exploit workers, increase the interest rate on unpaid tax debt to ensure that people pay on time, and go after the promoters of tax avoidance schemes. Those measures to reduce the tax gap raise £6.5 billion by the end of the forecast, and I thank the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury for his outstanding work on that agenda.

I know that for working people up and down our country, family finances are stretched and pay cheques do not go as far as they once did, so today I am taking steps to support people with the cost of living. It was the Labour Government who introduced the national minimum wage in 1999. That had a transformative impact on the lives of working people. As promised in our manifesto, we asked the Low Pay Commission to take account of the cost of living for the first time. I can confirm that we will accept the commission’s recommendation to increase the national living wage by 6.7% to £12.21 an hour, worth up to £1,400 a year for a full-time worker. And, for the first time, we will move towards a single adult rate, phased in over time by initially increasing the national minimum wage for 18 to 20-year-olds by 16.3%, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, taking it to £10 an hour—a Labour policy to protect working people, being delivered by a Labour Government once again.

Secondly, I have heard representations from colleagues across this House, including my hon. Friends the Members for Shipley (Anna Dixon) and for Scarborough and Whitby (Alison Hume), and the right hon. Member for Kingston and Surbiton (Ed Davey), about the carer’s allowance and the impact of the current policy on carers who are looking to increase the hours that they work. Carer’s allowance currently provides up to £81.90 per week to help those with additional caring responsibilities. Today, I can confirm that we are increasing the weekly earnings limit to the equivalent of 16 hours at the national living wage per week—the largest increase in the carer’s allowance since it was introduced in 1976. That means that a carer can now earn over £10,000 a year while receiving carer’s allowance, allowing them to increase their hours where they want to, and keep more of their money. I am also concerned about the cliff edge in the current system and the issue of overpayments. My right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary has announced an independent review to look at the issue of overpayments, and we will work across the House to develop the right solutions.

Thirdly, we will provide £1 billion from next year to extend the household support fund and discretionary housing payments to help those facing financial hardship with the cost of essentials. Fourthly, having heard representations from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Trussell Trust and others, I will reduce the level of debt repayments that can be taken from a household’s universal credit payment each month from 25% to 15% of their standard allowance. That means that 1.2 million of the poorest households will keep more of their award each month, lifting children out of poverty, and those who benefit will gain an average of £420 a year.

Our plan to make work pay will also protect working people. I know that Conservative Members are deeply interested in our plans. Having seen their colleagues repeatedly dismissed at short notice, I know that they are worried about their future under the right hon. Member for North West Essex (Mrs Badenoch). They should rest easy knowing that our plan will protect working people from unfair dismissal; it will safeguard them from bullying in the workplace; and it will improve their access to paternity and maternity leave. I hope the new shadow Cabinet will soon be grateful for those increased protections at work.

It is right that we protect those who have worked all their lives. In our manifesto, we promised to transfer the investment reserve fund in the mineworkers’ pension scheme to members. I have listened closely to my hon. Friends the Members for Easington (Grahame Morris), for Doncaster Central (Sally Jameson), for Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (Nick Smith) and for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Elaine Stewart) on this issue. Today, we are keeping our promise, so that working people who powered our country receive the fair pension that they are owed.

Our manifesto committed to the triple lock, meaning that spending on the state pension is forecast to rise by over £31 billion by 2029-30, to ensure our pensioners are protected in their retirement. That commitment means that while working-age benefits will be uprated in line with CPI at 1.7%, the basic and new state pension will be uprated by 4.1% in 2025-26. This means that over 12 million pensioners will gain up to £470 next year, up to £275 more than uprating by inflation. The pension credit standard minimum guarantee will also rise by 4.1%, from around £11,400 per year to around £11,850 a year for a single pensioner.

While I have sought to protect working people with measures to reduce the cost of living, I have had to take some very difficult decisions on tax. I want to set out my approach to fuel duty. Baked into the numbers that I inherited from the previous Government is an assumption that fuel duty will rise in line with the retail prices index next year and that the temporary 5p cut will be reversed. To retain the 5p cut and to freeze fuel duty again would cost over £3 billion next year. At a time when the fiscal position is so difficult, I have to be frank with the House that that is a substantial commitment to make. I have concluded that, in these difficult circumstances, while the cost of living remains high and with a backdrop of global uncertainty, increasing fuel duty next year would be the wrong choice for working people. It would mean fuel duty rising by 7p per litre, so I have decided today to freeze fuel duty next year, and I will maintain the existing 5p cut for another year, too. There will be no higher taxes at the petrol pumps next year.

The last Government made cuts of £20 billion to employees’ and self-employed national insurance in their final two Budgets. Those tax cuts were not honest, because we now know that they were based on a forecast that the OBR says would have been “materially different” had it known the true extent of the last Government’s cover-up. Since July, I have been urged on multiple occasions to reconsider those cuts—to increase the taxes that working people pay and see in their payslips—but I have made an important choice today: to keep every single commitment that we made on tax in our manifesto. I say to working people, I will not increase your national insurance, I will not increase your VAT, and I will not increase your income tax. Working people will not see higher taxes in their payslips as a result of the choices I am making today. That is a promise made and a promise fulfilled.

Any responsible Chancellor would need to make difficult decisions today to raise the revenues required to fund our public services and restore economic stability. So in today’s Budget, I am announcing an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions. We will increase the rate of employers’ national insurance by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, and we will reduce the secondary threshold—the level at which employers start paying national insurance on each employee’s salary—from £9,100 a year to £5,000. This will raise £25 billion per year by the end of the forecast period. I know that this is a difficult choice; I do not take this decision lightly. We are asking businesses to contribute more, and I know that there will be impacts of this measure felt beyond businesses, too, as the OBR has set out today. [Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)]

Order. Our constituents are watching—they need to be able to hear the Chancellor. Simmer down.

[Rachel Reeves]

In the circumstances I have inherited, it is the right choice to make. Successful businesses depend on successful schools, healthy businesses depend on a healthy NHS, and a strong economy depends on strong public finances. If the Conservative party chooses to oppose this choice, it is choosing more austerity, more chaos and more instability. That is the choice our country faces, too.

As I make this choice, I know it is particularly important to protect our smallest companies. Having heard representations from the Federation of Small Businesses and others, I am today increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that 865,000 employers will not pay any national insurance at all next year, and over 1 million will pay the same or less than they did previously. This will allow a small business to employ the equivalent of four full-time workers on the national living wage without paying any national insurance on their wages.

Let me now come to capital gains tax. We need to drive growth, promote entrepreneurship and support wealth creation while raising the revenue required to fund our public services and restore our public finances. Today, we will increase the lower rate of capital gains tax from 10% to 18% and the higher rate from 20% to 24%, while maintaining the rates of capital gains tax on residential property at 18% and 24%. This means that the UK will still have the lowest capital gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.

Alongside these changes to the headline rates of capital gains tax, we are maintaining the lifetime limit for business asset disposal relief at £1 million to encourage entrepreneurs to invest in their businesses. Business asset disposal relief will remain at 10% this year before rising to 14% in April 2025 and to 18% from 2026-27, maintaining a significant gap compared with the higher rate of capital gains tax. Together, the OBR says that these measures will raise £2.5 billion by the end of the forecast.

In a sign of this Government’s commitment to supporting growth and entrepreneurship, we have already extended the enterprise investment and venture capital trust schemes to 2035, and we will continue to work with leading entrepreneurs and venture capital firms to ensure that our policies support a positive environment for entrepreneurship in the UK.

Next, I turn to inheritance tax. Only 6% of estates will pay inheritance tax this year. I understand the strongly held desire to pass down savings to children and grandchildren, so I am taking a balanced approach in my package today. First, the previous Government froze inheritance tax thresholds until 2028. I will extend that freeze for a further two years, until 2030. That means that the first £325,000 of any estate can be inherited tax-free, rising to £500,000 if the estate includes a residence passed to direct descendants and £1 million when a tax-free allowance is passed to a surviving spouse or civil partner.

Secondly, we will close the loophole created by the previous Government, made even bigger when the lifetime allowance was abolished, by bringing inherited pensions into inheritance tax from April 2027. Finally, we will reform agricultural property relief and business property relief. From April 2026, the first £1 million of combined business and agricultural assets will continue to attract no inheritance tax at all, but for assets over £1 million, inheritance tax will apply with a 50% relief at an effective rate of 20%. This will ensure that we continue to protect small family farms, with three quarters of claims unaffected by these changes.

I can also announce that we will apply a 50% relief in all circumstances on inheritance tax for shares on the alternative investment market and other similar markets, setting the effective rate of tax at 20%. Taken together, these measures raise over £2 billion by the final year of the forecast.

Next, I can confirm that the Government will renew the tobacco duty escalator for the remainder of this Parliament at RPI+2%, increase duty by a further 10% on hand-rolling tobacco this year, and introduce a flat-rate duty on all vaping liquid from October 2026, alongside an additional one-off increase in tobacco duty to maintain the incentive to give up smoking. We will increase the soft drinks industry levy to account for inflation since it was introduced, as well as increasing the duty in line with CPI each year going forward. These measures will raise nearly £1 billion per year by the end of the forecast period.

We want to support the take-up of electric vehicles, so I will maintain the incentives for electric vehicles in company car tax from 2028 and increase the differential between fully electric and other vehicles in the first-year rates of vehicle excise duty from April 2025. These measures will raise around £400 million by the end of the forecast period.

Let me update the House on our plans for air passenger duty—and I can see the Leader of the Opposition’s ears have pricked up. Air passenger duty has not kept up with inflation in recent years, so we are introducing an adjustment, meaning an increase of no more than £2 for an economy class short-haul flight. But I am taking a different approach when it comes to private jets, increasing the rate of air passenger duty by a further 50%. That is equivalent to £450 per passenger for a private jet to, say, California. [Laughter.]

Let us now turn to our high street businesses. I know that, for them, a major source of concern is business rates. From 2026-27, we intend to introduce two permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties, which make up the backbone of our high streets across the country, and it is our intention that it is paid for by a higher multiplier for the most valuable properties. The previous Government created a cliff edge next year, as temporary reliefs end, so I will today provide 40% relief on business rates for the retail, hospitality and leisure industry in 2025-26 up to a cap of £110,000 per business. Alongside this, the small business tax multiplier will be frozen next year.

Next, I can confirm that alcohol duty rates on non-draught products will increase in line with RPI from February next year. However, nearly two thirds of alcoholic drinks sold in pubs are served on draught, so today, instead of uprating these products in line with inflation, I am cutting draught duty by 1.7%—[Hon. Members: “Hear, hear!”]—which means a penny off the pint in the pub.

Alongside the changes I am making today, I am publishing a corporate tax road map, providing the business certainty called for by the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Institute of Directors. This confirms our commitment to cap the rate of corporation tax at 25%—the lowest in the G7—for the duration of this Parliament, while maintaining full expensing and the £1 million annual investment allowance, and keeping the current rates of research and development relief to drive innovation.

In our manifesto, we made a number of commitments to raising funding for our public services. First, I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your taxes here, too, so today I can confirm that we will abolish the non-dom tax regime, and we will remove the outdated concept of domicile from the tax system from April 2025. We will introduce a new, residence-based scheme, with internationally competitive arrangements for those coming to the UK on a temporary basis, while closing the loopholes in the scheme designed by the Conservative party. To further encourage investment into the UK, we will extend the temporary repatriation relief to three years and expand its scope, bringing billions of pounds of new funds into Britain. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility says that this package of measures will raise £12.7 billion over the next five years.

The fund management industry provides a vital contribution to our economy, but as our manifesto set out, there needs to be a fairer approach to the way that carried interest is taxed, so we will increase the capital gains rates on carried interest to 32% from April 2025, and from April 2026 we will deliver further reform to ensure that the specific rules for carried interest are simpler, fairer and better targeted.

In our manifesto, we committed to reforming stamp duty land tax to raise revenues, while supporting those buying their first home. We are increasing the stamp duty land tax surcharge for second homes, known as the higher rate for additional dwellings, by 2 percentage points to 5%, which will come into effect from tomorrow. This will support over 130,000 additional transactions from people buying their first home or moving home over the next five years.

Next, we are committed to reforming the energy profits levy on oil and gas companies. I can confirm today that we will increase the rate of the levy to 38%. The levy will now expire in March 2030, and we will remove the 29% investment allowance. To ensure that the oil and gas industry can protect jobs and support our energy security, we will maintain the 100% first-year allowances, and the decarbonisation allowances, too.

Finally, 94% of children in the UK attend state schools. To provide the highest-quality support and teaching that they deserve, we will introduce VAT on private school fees from January 2025, and we will shortly introduce legislation to remove their business rates relief from April 2025, too.

We said in our manifesto that these changes, alongside our measures to tackle tax avoidance, would bring in £8.5 billion in the final year of the forecast. I can confirm today that they will in fact raise over £9 billion to support our public services and restore our public finances. That is a promise made and a promise fulfilled.

I have one final decision to announce on tax today. The previous Government froze income tax and national insurance thresholds in 2021, and then did so again after the mini-Budget. Extending their threshold freeze for a further two years raises billions of pounds—money to deal with the black hole in our public finances and repair our public services. Having considered the issue closely, I have come to the conclusion that extending the threshold freeze would hurt working people. It would take more money out of their payslips. I am keeping every single promise on tax that I made in our manifesto, so there will be no extension of the freeze in income tax and national insurance thresholds beyond the decisions made by the previous Government. From 2028-29, personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation once again. When it comes to choices on tax, this Government choose to protect working people every single time.

Those are the choices I have made to restore economic stability and protect working people. My next choice is to begin to repair our public services. In recent months, we conducted the first phase of the spending review to set departmental budgets for 2024-25 and 2025-26. I thank my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury for his tireless work with colleagues from across Government. Because I have taken difficult decisions on tax today, I am able to provide an injection of immediate funding over the next two years to stabilise and support our public services.

The next phase of the spending review will report in late spring, and I have set out the overall envelope today. Day-to-day spending from 2024-25 onwards will grow by 1.5% in real terms, and today departmental spending, including capital spending, will grow by 1.7% in real terms. At the election, we promised that there would be no return to austerity, and today we deliver on that promise, but given the scale of the challenge that we face in our public services, there will still be difficult choices in the next phase of the spending review. Just as we cannot tax and spend our way to prosperity, neither can we simply spend our way to better public services. We will deliver a new approach to public service reform, using technology to improve public services and taking a zero-based approach, so that taxpayers’ money is spent as effectively as possible, and so that we focus on delivering our key priorities.

In the first phase of the spending review, I have prioritised day-to-day funding to deliver on our manifesto commitments. I want every child to have the very best start in life, and the best possible start to their school day. I know that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Education shares my ambition, so today I am tripling investment in breakfast clubs to fund them in thousands of schools. I am increasing the core schools budget by £2.3 billion next year to support our pledge to hire thousands more teachers in key subjects. So that our young people can develop the skills that they need for the future, I am providing an additional £300 million for further education. Finally, this Government are committed to reforming special educational needs provision, to improve outcomes for our most vulnerable children and ensure that the system is financially sustainable. To support that work, I am today providing a £1 billion uplift in funding—a 6% real-terms increase from this year.

There is no more important job for Government than keeping our country safe, and we are conducting a strategic defence review, to be published next year. As set out in our manifesto, we will set a path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence at a future fiscal event. Today, I am announcing a total increase in the Ministry of Defence’s budget of £2.9 billion next year, ensuring that the UK comfortably exceeds our NATO commitments, and providing guaranteed military support to Ukraine of £3 billion per year for as long as it takes. Last week, alongside my right hon. Friend the Defence Secretary, I announced, in addition to that, further support for Ukraine, on top of our NATO commitment. That support comes through our £2.26 billion contribution to the G7’s extraordinary revenue acceleration agreement. That will be repaid using profits from immobilised Russian sovereign assets.

As we approach Remembrance Sunday, it is vital that we take time to remember those who have served our country so bravely. I am today announcing funding to commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE and VJ Day next year, to honour those who served at home and abroad. We must also remember those who experienced the atrocities of the Nazi regime at first hand. I would like to pay tribute to Lily Ebert, the Holocaust survivor and educator who passed away aged 100 earlier this month. I am today committing a further £2 million for Holocaust education next year, so that charities such as the Holocaust Educational Trust can continue their work to ensure that those vital testimonies are not lost, and are preserved for the future.

To repair our public services, we need to work alongside our mayors and local leaders. We will deliver a significant, real-terms funding increase for local government next year, including £1.3 billion of additional grant funding to deliver essential services, with at least £600 million in grant funding for social care and £230 million to tackle homelessness and rough sleeping. We are today confirming that Greater Manchester and the West Midlands will be the first mayoral authorities to receive integrated settlements from next year, giving mayors meaningful control of funding for their local areas. To support our high streets, we are taking action to deal with the sharp rise in shoplifting that we have seen in recent years. We will scrap the effective immunity for low-value shoplifting introduced by the Conservative party, and having listened closely to organisations such as the British Retail Consortium and the trade union USDAW, I am providing additional funding to crack down on the organised gangs that target retailers, and to provide more training for our police officers and retailers, in order to stop shoplifting in its tracks.

Finally, I am today providing funding to support public services and drive growth across Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Having discussed the matter with the First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Wales (Dame Nia Griffith), and my hon. Friend the Under-Secretary of State for Justice (Alex Davies-Jones), I am today providing £25 million to the Welsh Government next year for the maintenance of coal tips, to ensure that we keep our communities safe. To support growth, including in our rural areas, we will proceed with city and growth deals in Northern Ireland, in Causeway Coast and Glens, and the Mid South West. We will drive growth in Scotland, which is a key priority for Scottish Labour and our leader, Anas Sarwar, including through a city and growth deal in Argyll and Bute.

This Budget provides the devolved Governments with the largest real-terms funding settlement since devolution, delivering an additional £3.4 billion to the Scottish Government through the Barnett formula—funding that must now be used effectively in Scotland to deliver the public services that the people of Scotland deserve. This Budget also provides £1.7 billion to the Welsh Government, and £1.5 billion to the Northern Ireland Executive in 2025-26. I said there would be no return to austerity; that is the choice I have made today.

To rebuild our country, we need to increase investment. The UK lags behind every other G7 country when it comes to business investment as a share of our economy. That matters. It means that the UK has fallen behind in the race for new jobs, new industries, and new technology. By restoring economic stability, and by establishing the national wealth fund to catalyse private funding, we have begun to create the conditions that businesses need to invest, but there is also a significant role for public investment. For too long, we have seen Conservative Chancellors cut investment and raid capital budgets to plug gaps in day-to-day spending. The result is clear for all to see: hospitals without the equipment they need; school buildings not fit for our children; a desperate lack of affordable housing; and economic growth held back at every turn. Under the plans I inherited, public investment was set to fall from 2.5% to 1.7% of GDP, but in Washington last week, the International Monetary Fund was clear: more public investment is badly needed in the UK.

Having listened to the case made by the former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, the former Treasury Minister, Jim O’Neill and the former Cabinet Secretary, Gus O’Donnell, among others, I am confirming our investment rule. As was set out in our manifesto, we will target debt falling as a share of the economy. Debt will be defined as public sector net financial liabilities—or net financial debt, for short. That metric has been measured by the Office for National Statistics since 2016 and forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility since that date, too.

Net financial debt recognises that Government investment delivers returns for taxpayers by counting not just the liabilities on a Government’s balance sheet, but the financial assets, too. That means we count the benefits of that investment, not just the costs, and we free up our institutions to invest, just as they do in Germany, France and Japan. Like our stability rule, our investment rule will apply in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From that point onwards, net financial debt will fall in the third year of every forecast. Today, the OBR says that we are already meeting our target two years early, with net financial debt falling by 2027-28 and £15.7 billion of headroom in the final year.

So that we drive the right incentives in Government investments, we will introduce four key guardrails to ensure capital spending is good value for money and drives growth in our economy. First, our portfolio of new financial investments will be delivered by expert bodies, such as the national wealth fund, and must by default earn a rate of return at least as large as that on gilts. Secondly, we will strengthen the role of institutions to improve infrastructure delivery. Thirdly, we will improve certainty, setting capital budgets for five years and extending them at spending reviews every two years. Finally, we will ensure greater transparency for capital spending, with robust annual reporting of financial investments based on accounts audited by the National Audit Office and made available to the Office for Budget Responsibility at every forecast. Taken together with our stability rule, these fiscal rules will ensure that our public finances are on a firm footing, while enabling us to invest prudently alongside business.

The capital plans I now set out to drive growth across our country and repair the fabric of our nation are possible only because of our investment rule. Let me set out those investment plans. Today, we are confirming our plans to capitalise the national wealth fund to invest in the industries of the future, from gigafactories to ports to green hydrogen. Building on those investments, my right hon. Friend the Business Secretary is driving forward our modern industrial strategy, working with businesses and organisations such as Make UK to set out the sectors with the biggest growth potential. Today, we are confirming multi-year funding commitments for these areas of our economy, including nearly £1 billion for the aerospace sector to fund vital research and development, building on our industry in the east midlands, the south-west and Scotland; more than £2 billion for the automotive sector to support our electric vehicle industry and develop our manufacturing base, building on our strengths in the north-east and the west midlands; and up to £520 million for a new life sciences innovative manufacturing fund.

For our world-leading creative industries, we will legislate to provide additional tax relief for visual effect costs in TV and film, and we are providing £25 million for the North East combined authority, which it plans to use to remediate the Crown Works Studios site in Sunderland, creating 8,000 new jobs.

To unlock these growth industries of the future, we will protect Government investment in research and development, with more than £20 billion-worth of funding. This includes at least £6.1 billion to protect core research funding for areas such as engineering, biotechnology and medical science through Research England, other research councils and the national academies. We will extend the innovation accelerators programme in Glasgow, Manchester and the west midlands. With more than £500 million of funding next year, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology will continue to drive progress in improving reliable, fast broadband and mobile coverage across our country, including in rural areas.

We committed in our manifesto to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this Parliament, and my right hon. Friend the Deputy Prime Minister is driving that work forward across government. Today, I am providing more than £5 billion of Government investment to deliver our plans on housing next year. We will increase the affordable homes programme to £3.1 billion, delivering thousands of new homes. We will provide £3 billion-worth of support in guarantees to boost the supply of homes and support our small house builders. We will provide investment to renovate sites across our country, including at Liverpool Central Docks, where we will deliver 2,000 new homes, and funding to help Cambridge realise its full growth potential.

Alongside this investment, we will put the right policies in place to increase the supply of affordable housing. Having heard representations from local authorities, social housing providers and Shelter, I can today confirm that the Government will reduce right-to-buy discounts and that local authorities will be able to retain the full receipts from any sales of social housing, so that we can reinvest them back into housing stock and into new supply. By doing that, we will give more people a safe, secure and affordable place to live.

We will provide stability to social housing providers with a social housing rent settlement of CPI plus 1% for the next five years, and we will deliver on our manifesto commitment to hire hundreds of new planning officers to get Britain building again. We will also make progress on our commitment to accelerate the remediation of homes, following the findings of the Grenfell inquiry, with £1 billion of investment to remove dangerous cladding next year.

The last Government made a number of promises on transport, but failed to fund them. Working with my right hon. Friend the Transport Secretary, I am changing that. We are today securing the delivery of the trans-Pennine upgrade to connect York, Leeds, Huddersfield and Manchester, delivering fully electric local and regional services between Manchester and Stalybridge by the end of this year, with a further electrification of services between Church Fenton and York by 2026, to help grow our economy across the north of England with faster and more reliable services.

We will deliver East West Rail to drive growth between Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge, with the first services running between Oxford, Bletchley and Milton Keynes next year, and trains between Oxford and Bedford running from 2030. We are delivering railway schemes that improve journeys for people across our country, including upgrades at Bradford Forster Square station, improving capacity at Manchester Victoria and electrifying the Wigan to Bolton line.

My right hon. Friend the Transport Secretary has also set out a plan for how to get a grip of HS2. Today, we are securing delivery of the project between Old Oak Common and Birmingham, and we are committing the funding required to begin tunnelling work to London Euston station. That will catalyse private investment into the local area, delivering jobs and growth.

I am also funding significant improvements to our road network. For too long, potholes have been an all-too-visible reminder of our failure to invest as a nation. Today that changes, with a £500 million increase in road maintenance budgets next year—more than delivering on our manifesto commitment to fix an additional 1 million potholes each year. We will provide over £650 million of local transport funding to improve connections across our country, in towns such as Crewe and Grimsby and in our villages and rural areas from Cornwall to Cumbria. While the previous Government’s policy was for the bus fare cap to end this December, we understand how important bus services are for our communities, so we will extend the cap for a further year, setting it at £3 until December 2025. Finally, we will deliver £1.3 billion of funding to improve connectivity in our city regions, funding projects such as the Brierley Hill metro extension in the west midlands, the renewal of the Sheffield Supertram, and West Yorkshire mass transit, including in Bradford and Leeds.

To bring new jobs to Britain and drive growth across our country, we are delivering our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower, led by my right hon. Friend the Energy Secretary. Earlier this month, we announced a significant multi-year investment between Government and business in carbon capture and storage, creating 4,000 jobs across Merseyside and Teesside. Today, I am providing funding for 11 new green hydrogen projects across England, Scotland and Wales—they will be among the first commercial-scale projects anywhere in the world—including in Bridgend, East Renfrewshire and Barrow-in-Furness. We are kick-starting the warm homes plan by confirming an initial £3.4 billion over the next three years to transform 350,000 homes, including a quarter of a million low-income and social homes, and we will establish GB Energy, providing funding next year to set it up at its new home in Aberdeen.

Overall, we will invest an additional £100 billion over the next five years in capital spending—that is possible only because of our investment rule. The OBR says today that this investment will drive growth across our country in the next five years and, in the longer term, increase GDP by up to 1.4%. It will crowd in private investment, meaning more jobs and more opportunities in every corner of the UK. That is the choice that I have made: to invest in our country and to grow our economy.

Today, I am setting out two final areas in which investment is so badly needed to repair the fabric of our nation. My hon. Friend the Member for Lewisham West and East Dulwich (Ellie Reeves) and I joined the Labour party because of the condition of our schools in the 1980s and 1990s under Conservative Governments. When we were at secondary school, my sixth form was a couple of prefab huts in the playground. My school, like so many others, was rebuilt by the last Labour Government, but after 14 years of Tory government, progress has gone backwards: school roofs are crumbling and millions of children are facing the same backdrop as I did. I will be the Chancellor who changes that.

Today, I am providing £6.7 billion of capital investment to the Department for Education next year—a 19% real-terms increase on this year. That includes £1.4 billion to rebuild over 500 schools in the greatest need, including St Helen’s primary school in Hartlepool, Mercia academy in Derby and so many more across our country. We will provide £2.1 billion more to improve school maintenance—£300 million more than this year—ensuring that all our children can learn somewhere safe. That will include dealing with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete-affected schools in the constituencies of my hon. Friends the Members for Watford (Matt Turmaine), for Stourbridge (Cat Eccles) and for Hyndburn (Sarah Smith) and beyond, alongside investment in new teachers and funding for thousands of new breakfast clubs. This Government are giving our children and young people the opportunities that they deserve.

I come to our most cherished public service of all: our NHS. My right hon. Friend the Health Secretary is beginning to repair the damage of the last 14 years. In our first week in office, he commissioned an independent report into the state of our health service by Lord Darzi. Its conclusions were damning. While our NHS staff do a remarkable job, and we thank them for it, it is clear that in so many areas we are moving in the wrong direction. A hundred thousand infants waited over six hours in A&E last year. Three hundred and fifty thousand people are waiting a year for mental health support. Cancer deaths here are higher than in other countries. It is simply unforgiveable.

In the spring, we will publish a 10-year plan for the NHS to deliver a shift from hospital to community, from analogue to digital and from sickness to prevention. Today, we are announcing a down payment on that plan to enable the NHS to deliver 2% productivity growth next year. These reforms are vital, but we should be honest: the state of the NHS that we inherited after—I quote Lord Darzi—

“the most austere decade since the NHS was founded”

means that reform must come alongside investment. So today, because of the difficult decisions that I have taken on tax, welfare and spending, I can announce that I am providing a £22.6 billion increase in the day-to-day health budget and a £3.1 billion increase in the capital budget over this year and next. This is the largest real-terms growth in day-to-day NHS spending outside of covid since 2010.

Let me set out what this funding is delivering. Many NHS buildings have been left in a state of disrepair, so we will provide £1 billion of health capital investment next year to address the backlog of repairs and upgrades across our NHS. To increase capacity for tens of thousands more procedures next year, we will provide a further £1.5 billion for new beds in hospitals across our country, new capacity for over a million additional diagnostic tests, and new surgical hubs and diagnostic centres so that people waiting for their treatment can get it as quickly as possible.

My right hon. Friend the Health Secretary will be setting out further details of his review into the new hospital programme in the coming weeks and publishing in the new year, but I can tell the House today that work will continue at pace to deliver those seven hospitals affected by the RAAC crisis, including West Suffolk hospital in Bury St Edmunds and Leighton hospital in Crewe. And finally, because of this record injection of funding, the thousands of additional beds that we have secured and the reforms that we are delivering in our NHS, we can now begin to bring waiting lists down more quickly and move towards our target for waiting times to be no longer than 18 weeks by delivering on our manifesto commitment for 40,000 extra hospital appointments a week. That is the difference that this Labour Government are making.

The choices I have made today are the right choices for our country—to restore stability to our public finances, to protect working people, to fix our NHS and to rebuild Britain. That does not mean these choices are easy, but they are responsible. If the Conservatives disagree with the choices that I have made, they must answer: what choices would they make? Would they again choose the path of irresponsibility—the path taken by Liz Truss—and ignore the problems in our public finances all together? If that is their choice, they should say so. But let me be clear: if they disagree with my choices on tax, they would not be able to protect working people. If they disagree with our plans to fund public services, they would have to cut schools and hospitals. If they disagree with our investment rule, they would have to delay or cancel thousands of projects that drive growth across our country.

This is a moment of fundamental choice for Britain. I have made my choices—the responsible choices—to restore stability to our country and to protect working people. More teachers in our schools, more appointments in our NHS, more homes being built, fixing the foundations of our economy, investing in our future, delivering change and rebuilding Britain. We on the Government Benches commend those choices, and I commend this statement to the House.

Provisional Collection of Taxes

Motion made, and Question put forthwith (Standing Order No. 51(2)),

That, pursuant to section 5 of the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968, provisional statutory effect shall be given to the following motions:—

(a) Value added tax (private school fees) (motion no. 34);

(b) Stamp duty land tax (additional dwellings: purchases before 1 April 2025) (motion no. 35);

(c) Stamp duty land tax (purchases by companies) (motion no. 37);

(d) Rates of tobacco products duty (motion no. 46).—(Rachel Reeves.)

Question agreed to.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)]

We come now to the motion entitled “Income Tax (Charge)”. It is on this motion that the debate will take place today and on the succeeding days. The questions on this motion and the remaining motions will be put at the end of the Budget debate on Wednesday 6 November.