Syria and the Use of Chemical Weapons

Marquess of Lothian Excerpts

Thursday 29th August 2013 Lords Chamber

[The Marquess of Lothian]

My Lords, what happened in Damascus last week was a horrifying atrocity of the highest order, the perpetrators of which must be held to account. I hold no candle for Bashar al-Assad and condemn him for any atrocities either authorised by him or carried out in his name. If he was responsible for this latest outrage, he must be brought to book.

However, I believe equally that we should not make judgment of guilt without due process—that is what, perhaps naively, I thought the ICC was there for—and military action without due process would prejudge it. As the example of Iraq showed, speculation based on intelligence is not enough. Like the noble Lord, Lord Reid, I do not believe that the JIC assessment of “highly likely” is enough either.

The Motion in the other place endorses military action against Syria in principle, but at the same time, emphasised by the urgency with which this debate has been held here today, it also implies military action in practice, and we would be foolish if we were to think otherwise. I have to tell your Lordships that I strongly oppose both.

A long-distance military strike, however carefully targeted, would be profoundly wrong. President Obama yesterday described such actions as “a shot across the bow”. Such a shot, I always understood, is intended to miss but to warn. What we are looking at now is very different: not a warning shot but one intended to strike and to harm. To fire such a shot would be to take part, with no exit strategy, in a civil war which has nothing to do with us or our national interest.

I feel strongly about this. As the Official Opposition spokesman in the House of Commons who wound up the debate of 18 March 2003, on behalf of the Conservative Party I supported Tony Blair’s disingenuous decision to invade Iraq, a support which with the benefit of hindsight I have deeply regretted ever since. I believed then what we were told the intelligence indicated and I now know that I was wrong to do so. Whatever the legal advice—and I say this as a lawyer and with respect for all other lawyers here—it is only advice. I personally believe that, without United Nations sanction, any military action on our part would be illegal. At least in Iraq there were many unimplemented Chapter 7 United Nations resolutions. For the moment, no such justification exists in relation to Syria.

We are told that this is not about regime change but about deterrence, but we were told that about Iraq as well, only to be told afterwards that it was about regime change all along. In this case, our Government, as has already been mentioned, have made it clear from the very start that they wanted to see President Assad gone. Moreover, we now risk giving succour, if not arms, to the very jihadists whom we have fought and are still fighting at such human cost in other parts of the region. To put it mildly, this is irresponsible folly.

The Motion reflects the United Nations’ doctrine of the responsibility to protect, but it begs the question: to protect whom and how? Is it to protect those allegedly being chemically attacked by Assad but not those being slaughtered by Jabhat al-Nusra or even by our so-called friendly rebels and, if so, why?

I have to say that we do not do the Middle East very well. Albeit unintentionally, over these past years we have exacerbated Muslim extremism against the West both at home and abroad. We inadvertently encouraged AQ into Iraq, and we paid the consequences for that. We welcomed the Arab spring, which has now reintroduced political Islamism across the region. We stood by while others in the region actively supported Islamist forces in Syria. A western military strike now would give those same Islamists even more encouragement.

What would it achieve? Would it achieve provocation, retaliation, and regime change? If there were regime change, what would it change into? Would it change into a Sunni Islamist Government, a dismembered and dysfunctional Syria and, as the right reverend Prelate said, increasing anti-Christian sentiment as well? And all in a region which is a powder keg. Once we start, how do we get out? In Iraq, it took eight years; in Afghanistan, it took 14 years; in Syria, we just do not know. Syria’s civil war is not our business. Moreover, it is now part of a far bigger conflict between Sunni and Shia which is not our business either. We should just keep out.