European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Turnbull Excerpts

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I pose a simple question: who can be against an informed electorate in a democracy? The danger now is that people obtain their views of the European Union from elements of the press which have a clear line. It would be helpful to find, as far as is possible, objective individuals to provide an assessment that can form a basis for an informed electorate.

I can add to the list provided by my noble friend Lady Quin of those who have already expressed a view. The CBI, for example, concluded in a recent report that while the UK could certainly survive outside the European Union none of the alternatives suggested either a clear path to improvement, advantages/disadvantages or greater influence.

There is clearly a danger of both sides exaggerating the consequences of being in or out. The Rhine will not overflow. Armageddon will not come whether we are in or out. It is a question of the balance of advantages and disadvantages, and what can better inform us of that than an independent assessment with which to inform the electorate?

Apart from the CBI, a number of major firms have also expressed a view. They are concerned about the effect on them, on their employment prospects and on further investment in the UK if there were to be a period of uncertainty. These include, for example, easyJet, Nissan, Toyota, Hyundai, and even the Japanese Government. I recall how often Wales has looked to Japan for increased investment and has done fairly well out of it in the past. It is unusual for a Government to express a view on a matter affecting another Government, but the Japanese Government have said that the UK has several advantages as a gateway for the European market and considerable Japanese investment. Japan, effectively, if I may paraphrase, expects this to continue.

Obviously we need to have an informed electorate. There will be consequences whether we remain in or come out but, as a number of noble Lords have said, who knows what developments there will be within the European Union between now and the time of a referendum? Some countries—there has been speculation about Greece in the past—may no longer be members. There may well be, although I think it unlikely, an acceleration of membership and an agreement on migration, and the question of the banking system might change, as the noble Lord, Lord Taverne, has said.

We have impact assessments for a series of other matters: the effect on public expenditure and so on. Certainly in the past when constitutional changes have been made affecting local and regional government, there have been learned commissions to look at them. In my judgment these matters are vital to us—for the UK economy, for European citizens within the UK and for our own citizens outside.

The methodology is available. The Government will be well aware that the Norwegian Government commissioned Professor Fredrik Sejersted to carry out a survey in Norway on the effects, and he was called in to our Foreign Office to advise on the methodology. At the moment it may well be that Mr Murdoch will have a far greater impact on voting intentions and ordinary citizens like ourselves will at least be allowed our say, but in my judgment it is not Mr Murdoch, his press and others who should prevail. The public should be well informed on the consequences for or against before they make the great leap.

[Lord Turnbull (CB)]

My Lords, in the event of a no vote, there will not be a clean break with the rest of the European Union because Europe will still begin 21 miles away. We will be enmeshed in it in hundreds of ways. Just as there is a relationship between Canada and the US, we will have to find a new relationship. In order for someone to carry out this impact study, people will want to know what the Government will try to retain of the existing relationship, to modify and to drop. Where a change is made, the Government will need to set out their ideas for whatever they think should be the successor regime. Without that information, an impact study cannot be made and people will not be able to assess how it will apply to them.

Amendment 72, tabled in my name, comes right at the end of the Marshalled List. It asks the Government to do what only the Government can do, and that is to set out how they think these various regimes will be modified, and from that the impact assessment can be made. The two really go together, but because of the groupings, they will be considered separately. I support this amendment and I hope that in due course noble Lords will support Amendment 72, which is a partner to it.

[Lord Radice]

I rise very briefly to support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Roper, and other noble friends. I think that we have moved on now. A very large majority have voted not just in favour of the question, but in favour of the principle of amendment. That is because, of course, the only argument put by the other side was not against the last amendment—or only a very weak argument was made against it—but that we must not amend the Bill. The fact is that it has been amended, so now we can look seriously at it and try to improve it. This is one area in which we can make a useful contribution, and I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Roper.

I remember very well that before the 1975 referendum complaints were made by both sides, particularly by the no side, that all the information had been supplied by the Government and that that was unfair. There is a case to be made for some kind of hard-headed and objective assessment on which we can make our choice about whether to stay in or come out. I rather agreed with the noble Lord, Lord Roper, when he said that the assessment should not necessarily be done by the Government themselves because that was precisely the argument in 1975: the information was not to be trusted because the Government were pro-European and therefore it should have been provided by someone else. The suggestion that the Office for Budget Responsibility might be the body to do the work is a good one. I therefore support the noble Lord, Lord Roper, who I hope I can call my noble friend, which he certainly is because I have known him for 50 years, and I hope that in doing so I have done my duty to him and, indeed, to the argument for improving this Bill.

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Turnbull Excerpts

Friday 10th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnbull (CB)]

My Lords, there are many features of the EU and our relationship with it that are beneficial, but there are also many that are objectionable, beginning with the complacency of the Brussels elite, exemplified on the radio this morning. There is the contempt for popular opinion; the driving ambition for ever closer union; the relentless expansion of the EU competences; the extravagance over buildings and expenses; the waste within EU programmes such as the CAP, overseas aid and the common fisheries policy; the hypocrisy of demanding a 6% real-terms increase in the EU budget while imposing harsh austerity on national budgets; the economic illiteracy of many of the regimes, such as the euro, the Social Chapter and the working time directive; and the damage to competitiveness in seeking to decarbonise in only 35 more years, largely on the basis of renewables. There is also the jealousy and hostility towards London as a financial centre. Finally, there is the abject failure of the Lisbon agenda, agreed in 2000, to make Europe the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world.

It is not surprising that many people have become exasperated, but does that justify this curious Bill? It does not in my view. To make a rational and informed choice on EU membership, one needs to start with an analysis of the status quo of EU membership—its costs and benefits—and then compare that with not one but two counterfactuals. First, what would life be like as a member of the EU on revised terms? Secondly, what would life be like outside the EU? Current government policy at least attempts to address the first. That is, after a period of negotiation the results are to be put to the people for a decision. However, this still fails to deal with the nature of life outside the EU.

The Bill deals with neither of these cases. Leaving the EU cannot be treated like deciding not to renew one’s subscription to a golf club, which has no lasting consequences. The decision to leave the EU would leave a host of important issues unresolved, including citizenship and rights of residence affecting millions of people who have moved one way or another within the European Union; ownership of property; employment; trade in goods and services; recognition of intellectual property; the operation of cross-border businesses; study at European universities; and many others. We would need to know how many of the favourable aspects of EU membership, such as free trade, we could retain through bilateral agreements, and how many of the unfavourable elements we could jettison.

This is a defective Bill as it does nothing to address these issues and help the people to make an informed decision of a very major kind. It is also, I believe, a pointless Bill as it will not settle the question of whether or when there will be an “in or out” referendum. That will be determined by the outcome of the next election, in the next Parliament, which can endorse, amend or repeal this Bill.