Queen’s Speech

Lord Truscott Excerpts

Monday 1st June 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Truscott (Non-Afl)]

My Lords, I, too, wish to congratulate the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Dunlop, on his maiden speech. He has a very challenging brief and I am sure, on the evidence before us, that he will rise to it. I also commend the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leeds on a thoughtful and thought-provoking speech. I look forward to further advice from the noble Lord, Lord Lisvane, particularly on the appropriate application of the Salisbury convention to legislation in the current parliamentary Session and other matters.

There has been much discussion about how polling organisations got voting intentions wrong in the run-up to the Scottish referendum and the general election. However, the answer does not lie in shy Tories in England or the 30% of people who only decided on how they were going to vote on polling day, either in the general election or in the referendum. Rather, it reflects a relatively new phenomenon: the canny British electorate are increasingly keeping their own counsel and do not reveal it to polling organisations. That will make pollsters’ lives difficult and their future predictions even more problematic. Nevertheless, the outcome of both votes showed a clear result. In Scotland, elections henceforth can be won only from the centre-left—or, in a nod to the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes of Cumnock, at least by parties that are perceived to be on the centre-left. In England, they can be won only from the centre, which has always been pretty obvious to anyone who learned the lesson of the Blair era and the wilderness years before it. Liz Kendall, a Labour leadership contender in the other place, has been reported as saying that if the party fails to learn the right lessons, it could be out of power for a decade or even indefinitely. That is a sobering thought, but accurate in my view.

Following the general election and Labour’s defeat, it has become something of a truism that the two greatest issues facing Parliament are Britain’s place in Europe and Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom. From the American War of Independence through to the end of the British Raj in India and of apartheid in South Africa, history has taught us, if nothing else, that it is fruitless to oppose a genuine will for self-determination. The majority of Scottish people, as witnessed by last September’s referendum vote, have not yet crossed that particular Rubicon. Yet the momentum is clearly with the Scottish nationalists, as shown in last month’s general election. Our Houses of Parliament in Westminster should face up to that reality. As welcome as the measures for further Scottish devolution mentioned in the gracious Speech will be north of the border, I fear that they do not go far enough. Additional control over some taxation, including VAT, and some domestic expenditure will quickly become a focus of dispute between Holyrood and Westminster. Grudgingly ceding power in dribs and drabs will play into the hands of nationalists, who will for ever ask for more than was granted. Each transfer of power will be constantly portrayed in the media as a loss for Westminster and a victory for the SNP. A war of attrition will follow, exhausting and irritating all sides.

To prevent the eventual dissolution of the union, the Government should be prepared to offer Scotland much greater fiscal autonomy. The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, strongly opposed the concept of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland, and I agree with him that the SNP should be careful what it wishes for. However, there is a danger that, short of a wide-ranging agreement, there will be a persistent and enervating constitutional battle between Scotland and Westminster that will lead to antagonism, disgruntlement and even eventual independence. Instead, Scotland should have a much greater degree of control over its own domestic affairs. But with those rights should come responsibility. The Scottish nationalists should no longer be able to have it both ways, complaining about a lack of powers while squeezing the rest of the UK to pay for their very ambitious and, frankly, irresponsible spending plans. The Barnett formula, mentioned by the Minister in his opening speech, which the late Lord Barnett himself opposed in his latter years, should be scrapped and, along with it, the £1,600 per person per year subsidy which Scotland receives from Westminster. The Scottish nationalists themselves should face up to the £8 billion or £9 billion deficit, depending on the oil price, which full fiscal autonomy for the Scottish economy would imply. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Scotland’s financial deficit for last year was 40% higher than that of the UK as a whole. The Treasury recently estimated that the Scottish Government faced a £40 billion funding shortfall over the next five years, over and above the existing UK national debt.

If the Scottish people want free tuition and free prescriptions, then so be it, but they should not expect English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers to pay for them. In the real world, that means that they have to pay for them either by tax rises or through spending cuts elsewhere. I agree, by the by, with the noble Lord, Lord Lawson of Blaby, that there is a real question over the issue of borrowing.

I also welcome the Government’s commitment in the gracious Speech, referred to by the Minister, to English and Welsh votes for English and Welsh laws. The question is how to achieve that. There have been many suggestions during today’s debate which I hope the Minister will take on board and reply to. Parliament here at Westminster should evolve so that there is a clear separation between English, Welsh, Irish and Scottish devolved issues and those affecting the UK as a whole. The Scottish people did not vote for independence in September or this May, but they unquestionably did vote for a much greater say over their own affairs. Your Lordships’ House and Her Majesty’s Government should take that message to heart and act on it.