Gibraltar and Spain
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Baroness Warsi
My noble and learned friend makes an incredibly important point. He is right—there have been long periods of good co-operation and real progress on this issue. Indeed, until 2011 the trilateral process—the forum for dialogue between the UK and Spain, with Gibraltar as an equal partner—worked incredibly well. It is sad that, after the election of the Spanish Government in December 2011, Spain withdrew from that process. We have offered ad hoc talks as a way of moving this matter forward but eventually we would like to see a return to that trilateral process.
Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, the events of the last couple of weeks—the fishing boat incursions, the border restrictions and the events yesterday with the Spanish naval vessels—demand of all sides of the House that we are very clear that the rights to their choice about nationality rest with the people of Gibraltar. That should be said, and said clearly.
I wonder if there is a view in the Government about whether the EU—of which, after all, both we and Spain are members—could help create some mutual modus operandi which would be beneficial to Gibraltarians while recognising their rights to their own nationality as they seek it. These diplomatic efforts need a place of focus. We can surely provide it.
Baroness Warsi
I hear what the noble Lord says. We have made this offer of ad hoc talks, which we think is probably the first stage where these discussions could take place. We are not entirely convinced that for some of the areas where the EU feels that it has competences where Gibraltar is concerned, it does indeed have those competences. As I said earlier, it would be right to return to the trilateral process where Gibraltar was an equal party to those discussions.
Islam
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Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, I start by doing something that I have not done often, which is simply to endorse the Prime Minister’s words. It is notable to me that no noble Lord today has started with the convention that we have of congratulating somebody on getting a debate on the Order Paper. That is probably because most of us, certainly me, have looked forward to this with some apprehension. I was apprehensive because I know from the time in November 2009 that the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, in running for the leadership of his party, UKIP, said that the political class was complacent about Islamism. He claimed that our people—again, I do not quite know who the “our” and “we” are—were strangers in our own land. He went on to commend the right-wing Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, and invited him to screen his controversial film about Islam here.
A number of speakers in this debate have treated it, understandably, as though it were a discussion of a religious or theological issue. I do not believe that it is—I think that it is straightforwardly political. It is about the potency that is sometimes achieved, at times of economic crisis, of characterising some people in ways that are dismissive of them and stereotypes them, speaking about them with a generality that cannot be justified. I shall have to go back through Hansard to make sure that I am quoting accurately, but in introducing this debate the noble Lord talked about the “dark side” and birth rates of people who are, obviously, not quite as good as us, people stirring up hate and “red hot” people striving against us, people who we will finally see looking down the barrel of a gun at us, the plight of Christians, and so on. These are all characterisations which, candidly, should have no place in the debates in this country and our Parliament.
Lord Triesman
Sadly, and I want to say this as briefly as I can—and I make the point about it being political—this is not simply about the noble Lord, Lord Pearson. I have been going through quotations from a large number of other people from UKIP, and there is obviously an attempt to adopt positions on the extreme right in our country. Cavan Vines, the candidate in south Yorkshire, talked of people who hide behind women and kill our children. Chris Pain, the opposition leader in Lincolnshire, gave a foul-mouthed diatribe about Islam. Peter Entwistle, the deputy chair of Bury UKIP, speaking of President Obama said:
“If I ever see him on a Greyhound bus wearing a rucksack, I’m getting off!!”.
Misty Thackeray, the deputy chair of UKIP in Scotland, praised the right-wing Dutch politician, Geert Wilders as a self-confessed hater of Islam. I could go on. I have also noted that the support for those UKIP positions from the EDL has been as conspicuous as those quotations are. This is a sequence of attacks that have no place among us.
Whatever the justification that some people may feel for political objectives that they cannot achieve by normal, democratic means, those objectives never justify the use of violence to achieve them. That is true for any people in any community; it is never justified, and nobody in here would try to justify it. Nobody would say that the people of the United Kingdom can be bombed, shot at or violently compelled to make political changes that they do not wish to see. They never have been compelled that way and I do not believe that they ever will be compelled that way; this is a country that repudiates violence from any quarter and insists that those who conduct violence from any quarter are brought to justice. That is a straightforward convention among all of us, for reasons that are very profound.
It is not a matter, in my view, of whether people choose to live differently in their style or at a distance from others in their own communities. Personally, I have no taste for seeing communities constructed in that way—let me be quite clear about it. I prefer to live in an integrated society in which people share each other’s cultures and enjoy them. But it is also a truth that if people live that way within the law and including all laws that protect equal status of all citizens, there is no reason why those people should be subject to state intervention or trenchant language, as we have heard in the House this afternoon. People do have different lifestyles, and if they wish to live lawfully in their own communities we should at least have some modicum of respect for those facts.
I noted what the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, said about abrogation, with the later verses superseding the earlier ones, but I am not a sufficient student of that tradition to understand what is or is not within context. However, I am, in my modest way, a Talmudic scholar—at least, I have studied it to some extent—
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)
Perhaps the noble Lord could conclude his remarks.
Lord Triesman
I am nearing my final words. I notice that one of the most prominent quotations often relied upon is about smiting one’s opponents hip and thigh. That appears in Judges, chapter 15, verse 8. I tell noble Lords that I have never set about doing that, I have never thought of doing it, and I have never thought that it was a compunction upon Jewish people or anybody else.
Sudan
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Baroness Warsi
We are of course concerned about unilateral actions by either side in Abyei, but we believe that the Ngok community is organising a popular consultation of the community. However, this has not been endorsed by the Government of South Sudan. We understand the frustration that has led to this, but we encourage all parties at this stage to refrain from unilateral action. We are aware of the reports to which my noble friend refers of the build-up of Sudanese forces in South Kordofan. Whether or not that is linked to Abyei or the ongoing conflict in South Kordofan, we are not sure at this stage, and we urge restraint from the Sudanese armed forces. The noble Lord will of course be aware that, during the dry season, there is generally a build-up of armed personnel in the area, but we are keeping a close eye on the situation.
Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, I understand the call on the Sudanese Government to open up greater democratic space, but that is rather like inviting any violent dictator to think about his behaviour and mend his ways—it is unlikely to create the outcome sought. Is not the truth of this, whether we are talking about Abyei or anything else happening in Sudan, that Omar al-Bashir is wanted for war crimes? This Government—indeed, it was the noble Baroness on 17 July speaking about strengthening the International Criminal Court—made the point that impunity was not acceptable. What steps will be taken to bring this man to justice? He travels freely throughout Africa and much of the world. He is not immune.
Baroness Warsi
We regularly remind states party to the Rome statute of their responsibilities under that statute. Only three months ago, we brought this fact to the attention of Nigeria, where President Bashir was travelling.
Iran
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Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, this debate is happening at an important moment. I share President Obama’s assessment, echoed by my noble friend Lady Ashton on behalf of the EU, that President Hassan Rouhani is indeed reaching out. The recent exchanges on the nuclear programme, the exchanges of letters and the interface with our own Foreign Secretary are hopeful signs, but so far they are only signs. I therefore join others in thanking the noble Baroness, Lady Afshar, for hitting such a helpful moment to have this debate.
Anyone who knows the Iranian people or who has visited the country will be impressed by the energy and intellectual curiosity, particularly of young Iranians. Anyone who has ever taught Iranian students, as I have had the good fortune to do, will know exactly what I mean, and the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, made key points about the role of women in higher education which I wholly endorse. Iranians are inquiring, modern and hungry to engage with others; they are protective of their country, although that does not mean that they embrace theocratic rule or want to live in a social order resembling a caliphate—that is not true about them. Some are very brave. They faced repression, even if there are now limited changes.
It makes great sense to look at the two outward-facing windows that this debate suggests we look at which offer perhaps the best opportunities to build, for ordinary people, on the process of reaching out. Commercial links have understandably been impacted by economic sanctions. Sanctions were and, in my view, are essential until there is compliance with all United Nations decisions. They have had an impact and have had a much better effect than the alternative forms of intervention which some have advocated. It is easy to understand that the Iranians want them eased. The country is struggling under the current sanctions, not least because of the two-thirds decline in its oil exports, which account for some 50% of government expenditure.
The noble Lord, Lord Lamont, put the case about the economy very strongly, and I can only echo him. In exchange for diplomatic concessions, there is already promising talk about easing sanctions imposed by the UN and the West. Starting from such a low point, almost any commercial link is bound to be an improvement. On 19 October, the United States released $12 billion-worth of sanctions and the EU released $35 billion-worth of sanctions. These are good steps. I know of business opportunities, including some for Iranian state pension providers, many of whose beneficiaries are British. Opportunity is there, so there will be progress, but only if there is progress in the other areas that concern us, not least uranium enrichment and security for the missions of countries, including ours, that have suffered in the recent past. We do not yet know with certainty that this progress is sustainable, and I will return to the strategic judgment we have to make. It should be the core issue of this debate that we look at this issue, and ask the same fundamental questions as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds. I share his call for clarity.
Education links are invaluable for the future. They reach a new generation of Iranians whom we need to reach. UNESCO tells us that almost 99% of Iranians aged between 15 and 24 are literate and, as a percentage, as many people go to tertiary education as in this country. Support for educational and cultural exchanges between our two countries will form stronger bonds and more mutual comprehension. We have promoted this through the British Council and Chevening scholarships.
Other countries have also recognised the problems in this arena. UNESCO reported interventions—I will not go though all the kinds of courses because of the time—from Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Malaysia, Korea and the United States, and I am sure there are a great many others. Aside from the Chevening scholarships, I am aware of initiatives taken by a number of British universities. There are scholarships at Cambridge, East Anglia, Westminster and Nottingham, and the noble Lord, Lord Hylton, kindly reminded us of a longer and deeper historic link with the universities as well.
All this is positive, but it does not address the key strategic issue. I know how hard negotiating with Iran can be as I conducted the negotiations for the release of our sailors and marines who were seized in the Persian Gulf by the Revolutionary Guard. Everyone is entitled to look for signs of hope—we would feel hopeless if we did not do that—but we will all weigh the changes in top personnel, even if we do not yet know much about them, and the positive words, which are to be welcomed and given weight, while we recognise that the intention of diplomats who utter them is that they should be given weight. The art is to be optimistic, but not to put unsustainable weight on pronouncements or on preliminary stages of a dialogue. These are processes where cautious advance is critical, working out with consummate care what is to be given in exchange for real changes, and for nothing less.
I ask noble Lords not to misunderstand my point. I want hope and positive advance no less than anybody else. I do not want to miss any window of opportunity, but I know that no sophisticated nation or alliance builds a credible foreign policy on the basis of hope alone. It is built in calibrated steps by all parties. It is circumspect and usually involves turning around a huge tanker that is loaded with history, poor experiences and disappointments. To do so as fast as the evidence suggests is, of course, right, but it has to be as fast as the evidence suggests.
I hope that when we hear in a few moments from the noble Baroness, Lady Warsi, what the Government’s current assessment is, the lessons to take away will be that we must move in a timely way; that we should not be star-struck with hope without proof of good intention; and that we should have carefully designed milestones by which to measure proposals. That is the approach I would advocate, and I do not believe that it moves an inch against the direction of doing so with a hopeful spirit.
Commonwealth
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Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, there could hardly be a better time for this debate, just a few weeks before CHOGM. I, too, thank the noble Lord, Lord Luce, for introducing it, not least for his magisterial summary, inevitably repeated in part by other noble Lords, precisely because it was so comprehensive.
We live in an increasingly multipolar world, which makes it of greater importance all the time to understand multinational organisations, including the Commonwealth. I must say at this point that I share the points made by noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Judd, about other regional organisations. It is not a competition and there are perfectly good roles for each of them. There are other kinds of network as well, which are having a growing impact. The world is highly connected and networked—the Commonwealth has become, as the noble Baroness, Lady Prashar, described it, a people’s Commonwealth, not least because of that.
The Commonwealth’s strength is a history of shared experience. The commitment in the modern period, at least for the most part, is to shared governmental standards, economic development and the rule of law. There is a sense that, together, we are stronger and that we gain great strength through co-operation. All of this is cemented together not just by elements of common language but if, and only if, we have a common commitment to exacting standards of conduct in each individual—and equal—nation.
I am wholly with the noble Lords, Lord Luce, Lord Crisp and Lord St John of Bletso, when they make the point—which I share enthusiastically—that nobody starting today could create the Commonwealth or, indeed, probably the Francophonie; or the curious circumstances in which some nations are members of both. History has dealt a particular hand, which has a new modern life. Nowhere could you achieve this blend: large and small nations, some as small as Tuvalu; some of the largest economies and some of the most modest; developed and developing countries; and predominantly Hindu, Muslim and Christian countries—some deeply religious and some essentially secular. The common ground for all 53 is in the values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law; themselves the building blocks of peace and current and future prosperity. I wholly endorse the point made by my noble and learned friend Lady Scotland that they were summed up, in words at least, in the Harare principles, even if people have not wholly lived by those principles.
It is easy to understand why anyone who has served as Minister for the Commonwealth feels the honour of that role. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Moynihan, that I do not recall in the Foreign Office ever leaving the “C” bit out. The Commonwealth had that importance for all of us. There are many examples of why we should feel proud, such as the scholarships and the involvement in higher education. There are many examples of positive co-operation programmes, such as the 2008 secretariat initiative, which assisted many countries to innovate in order to enhance healthcare provision, promoting e-health. I was very intrigued by the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Kakkar, about the imperatives for life-saving information and the possibilities of sharing them. Assisting the Seychelles in its path to WTO accession demonstrated what can be offered in the financial sector.
Centrally, the work of the Commonwealth and its Eminent Persons Group in sustaining the core values is critical. Where nations, for whatever reason, resile from these values, reform and reinstatement of the values is a key Commonwealth function, and the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, was quite right to mention the influence of the charter in this.
The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, mentioned the exacting standards of solidarity and trade and asked whether these are key functions of the Commonwealth. Well, maybe not enough, but the Foreign Affairs Committee in another place has rightly described what may be a key function of Commonwealth membership; that is, as a badge of honour and,
“implying a guarantee that a country is upholding high standards in democracy and human rights”.
Membership is voluntary; members choose of their volition whether they intend to uphold those values.
However, I also feel, as do some noble Lords, that because we see so much that is positive—and this debate has proved it—we may be too relaxed, a little too complacent, about some of the new thinking needed to sustain the health of this key multinational organisation. Having a critical and friendly edge generates renewal, as the noble Lord, Lord St John, said—I think that he was also looking for a slightly deeper review. If we took any other view of the Commonwealth, it would soon be portrayed as not much different from some of the other multinational organisations that do not succeed.
As my noble friend Lord Browne, said, there are fundamental financial issues and contributions to be dealt with. There are fundamental issues with some of the countries. I do not accept the Gambian president’s allegation that the Commonwealth remains colonialist—the evidence does not support it. There is an increasingly authoritarian regime there with a history of human rights violations which fears that it may be judged to fall outside the standards of the charter which were adopted in 2012 and signed off by Her Majesty on 11 March this year. The president claims that he—and I mean he—can cure AIDS and infertility with herbal concoctions, and that homosexuality is one of the three biggest threats to human existence. Perhaps he decided to jump before he was pushed. Let me be clear from these Benches that I am wholly in sympathy with the noble Lords, Lord Black and Lord Lexden, in what they said about the necessity to address these issues squarely.
However, it is right, given the history of the Commonwealth, to continue to review whether there are colonial frames of mind, patronisation and condescension. It is essential to listen to a diverse membership, not to be paralysed by anxieties but ready to hear the perceptions of those who may be critical. We have to be attentive to the continuing stress lines between members. We must use our best endeavours to assist. We are familiar with tensions between India and Pakistan and must continue to be. There are other tensions; for example, economic rivalry between the economic powers of Africa. South Africa and Nigeria reflect on occasions rather more tension than is perhaps normal in commercial competition.
There have been some prized initiatives. The Maltese CHOGM emphasised e-networks—the noble Lord, Lord St John, also talked about digital inclusion. That initiative was launched with great élan and then more or less vanished. We could look at a number of programmes across the Commonwealth and say with an element of regret that the infrastructure around them has not been capable of sustaining them. That has been true in the case of youth development, on which there was a report on 17 September; on education, which the noble Baroness, Lady Hooper, drew to our attention; on health, employment, civic and political participation; and on the subject of press freedom, where I again find myself in strong agreement with the noble Lord, Lord Black. I would be grateful for the Minister’s views on all this. The upcoming CHOGM will bring some very important difficulties to the surface and we had better face them squarely.
I have a lot of time and respect for the current Secretary-General, but he and others must recognise a growing sense that the Commonwealth is not as fully committed to its core values as it should be. In a number of areas, I hear a discussion where the view is expressed that we overlook, or respond too weakly to, human rights abuses by members. Key recommendations of the Eminent Persons Group on reform have either not been implemented or been implemented very slowly. My noble friends Lord Wills and Lord Browne have rightly focused on this, as did my noble friend Lord Paul when he argued that the Commonwealth should be more assertive. That is absolutely right.
It is fundamental to the role of the Commonwealth that it addresses human rights violations and does not ignore them. The apartheid Government of South Africa negotiated their own departure not least because of the terminal international isolation that they faced. The Commonwealth was among the leading forces that produced that isolation, and that is greatly to its credit.
Let us be frank about Sri Lanka and the confounding decision to hold CHOGM in Colombo. The regime stands credibly accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes, of ongoing perpetration of the most serious human rights violations, suppression of opposition, media comment and the rights of free assembly. Those will increase during CHOGM as it tries to ensure that it is not disrupted in any sense. That is obviously what led to Canada’s decision, and I do not want to comment further on that.
My right honourable friend Douglas Alexander summed it up in clear terms up in March when he said:
“I have called previously on the British Government to use the prospect of the summit to encourage Sri Lanka to meet its international obligations and to address concerns about on-going human rights violations”.
He repeated that six weeks later. I fear that, although there has been a response to Questions in the other place, it is at best muted. It needs to go far further.
Surely, the response to date cannot be regarded as adequate to the circumstances pertaining in Sri Lanka. First, the United Kingdom delegation could not be more heavyweight: it includes the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary and the Minister of State. In my view, the Government took the decision too early, before they could have taken effective soundings, six months ahead of the summit. Why was the decision taken before the facts were known?
Secondly, the Government have said nothing so far about the Sri Lankan President becoming the Chairman-in-Office of the Commonwealth for the next two years. From a Commonwealth point of view, I believe that that is simply unacceptable and I am eager to hear what is the Government’s position on that. Thirdly, what will the Government say to Sri Lanka about civil rights abuses, the restrictions being imposed during CHOGM and the planned restrictions on the international media? Just getting the licence to go there is not the issue; it is whether you can then perform the functions of a journalist. Let us be clear: journalists can often get permission to go somewhere; it is whether they can perform the functions of a journalist that matters.
Those are the issues. If we want renewal, if we want bolstered trade, if we want to ensure that trade reduces or eliminates poverty, if we want to make health and education policies a reality, the Commonwealth is a great forum to do that. These are the areas in which our judgments will have to be made.
Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
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Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, I join others in congratulating and thanking the noble Lord, Lord Luce, for providing this opportunity and for the fine analysis which he provided—as, indeed, have other noble Lords. I, too, have visited the region many times and been struck by the amount of change that one sees almost visit by visit. I share with the noble Lords, Lord Luce and Lord King, the view that turmoil in the region is due to a very apparent set of difficulties. Indeed, I have avoided using the words “Arab spring” because I am not sure that I see it as a short-term seasonal, flowering thing; there is a very long-term set of issues to be resolved, which possibly go back to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and other factors.
However, these are nations that are key allies. We have perhaps given them too little attention, and that may well have been true in almost the whole period from 1981 onwards. They are under stress from their neighbours and the crisis in the neighbourhood; that is clear. Yet these nations are also strategically vital for the region and for potential conflict resolution in the region. It has been said this afternoon—and it is plainly right—that economically they are important; more than half the world’s oil and gas resources are there. That is especially important for the economies of India and China, and their development in the world economy.
Everyone seems to think that this region represents a vital energy issue for the United States, but when I look at the patterns of energy supply and consumption in that country I very much doubt that that is true. West Africa—as well as fracking and issues to do with other important resources—is probably a rather more significant issue for the United States. However, the region must be important for the United States, because the state of the world economy in general is important for the United States, as we all try to trade together successfully.
Over the years I have also observed the degrees of difficulty and competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. I suspect that since Iraq ceased to be the quarantining environment in which Iran operated, we are also seeing some traditional geopolitical issues regarding regional domination being played out. We often describe it as being simply a Sunni and Shia issue. Actually, I suspect that there is rather a more orthodox and traditional geopolitical contest going on, in which Qatar has also involved itself.
The issues may well become tighter. The noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, talked about the price of a barrel of oil. Some people in the futures market are predicting that we may be looking at prices way below $100, perhaps going down to the $50 to $60 range—a matter which will concern the Russians as much as anybody else. I do not know what will happen in those economies in those circumstances.
The members of the co-operation council often have grand plans, but have those plans been realised to any significant degree? It took until 2008 to create any version of a common market, and it is not a strong current theme. Diversification has not been particularly successful, as has been shown by some recent LSE studies, and the members’ external trade relationships outside the energy sector remain very difficult. Perhaps the discussions between the European Union and the co-operation council, which have not prospered so far, may be one of the ways in which international trade relations could be improved. Is it the Minister’s view that this country’s best interests are served by bilateral discussions or through the European Union’s attempts to get a common arrangement; and does she think that that will have an impact on the way in which sovereign wealth funds are deployed given the opportunities which may be present in a much wider setting? There seems to be no prospect of agreement on a common currency. I do not advocate it but it obviously makes trade relations in the council area more of a possibility.
Security is plainly vital to the council. It has obviously no wish to remain wholly dependent on the United States, but it is also significantly divided on what its common interest is and how that interest could be deployed in the region. There is no co-ordination as yet. Does the Minister have a view on that and on whether the tensions which I observe between, for example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar about who they should involve themselves with in Syria are not creating greater division than co-ordination? The possibilities for discussing political reform referred to by the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, and others seem to me very important. They have proved to be a source of difference. The shape of reform is obscure but what is plain, as has been said today, is that it is a key strategic issue. Some of the methods used in the Gulf to impose order have revealed what one might describe as the default methods of ensuring that things remain stable. I say with great respect to the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, that it is inevitable that we will comment on some of those human rights issues. I think he said that too. We could hardly do otherwise given the kind of Parliament that we have.
What view should we take? A stronger organisation would be of great benefit to the United Kingdom. It would also be of great benefit to the European Union if we think of it in terms of the broader economic circumstances. For the strategic reasons that have been identified this afternoon, I suspect that we would all wish to see further steps taken in modernising and evolving, particularly in constitutional arrangements, which may in the long term and with a much younger population help create the circumstances for greater stability. Young populations often do not respond as well to repression as they do to understanding what their status and location are in the organisation of the country in which they live. I hope that the Minister will identify the top few objectives of the United Kingdom Government. As I said earlier, would they be best handled by the United Kingdom or would they be handled more appropriately by the EU? I am not making this point to reawaken our discussions on the European Union but rather to consider what gives us the best opportunities to create the circumstances in which we might all advance. Without seeking to interfere in the affairs of these countries, are there areas where we could more appropriately offer friendly advice on security co-ordination or economic co-ordination? What might we learn from the countries? I do not think that giving advice is a one-way street. You often get a lot of advice, which is just as valuable if we take it as seriously as the advice that we might tentatively offer to others.
I conclude by saying that I hope that we can make real progress. I do not know whether the ambassadors from the Gulf states get together in London. There is a great depth of experience. The Kuwaiti ambassador has been the Dean of the Diplomatic Corps for a great many years and is a very knowledgeable ambassador. It may be that some of the fora in this country might help us in these developments. I certainly hope so, and I believe that that would be to the benefit of us all.
Syria
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Lord Triesman (Lab)
My Lords, I think probably all of us welcome the Answer that has been given and the progress that has been made. However, the House will need to understand the process to be followed at the United Nations Security Council rather more clearly. What instructions have been given to our ambassador at the United Nations, what milestones have been set and how will any progress, or indeed the lack of it, be reported to this House?
Baroness Warsi
Security Council Resolution 2118 sets out the timeframe within which the destruction of chemical weapons will take place. Indeed, teams are already on the ground in Damascus and a number of weapons, including armed warheads, have been destroyed, the detail of which I was reading only this morning, so the work has started. The noble Lord will be aware that there is a sense that if that timeframe is not followed, consequences could follow. I will, of course, keep the House updated on this matter, as I have done, and am more than happy to take questions or update the House as and when is necessary.
Egypt
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Baroness Warsi
My Lords, as your Lordships can probably tell, I like icing and cake. My noble friend makes an important point. It took us hundreds of years to come to the conclusions and deal with the issues to which he refers and there were long and bloody disputes over the role of the church and the role of the state. These are discussions that are taking place in Egypt and, of course, across the Middle East and north Africa. We now require strategic patience. We must allow this process to take place. Of course, there will be many bumps along the way, but it is important that all parties are allowed to take part in any future democratic process. That is why, among other things, we have this morning called on the authorities to free any Muslim Brotherhood senior figures; it is important that they, too, can take part in any future democratic elections.
Lord Triesman
My Lords, in her response on Tuesday, the noble Baroness said that we do not try to tell people what to do and that it was a matter for them. I hope that she will accept today that nothing in my question—or, indeed, in that of my noble friend Lady Symons—suggests anything else. Over the years, the FCO has facilitated local discussions in Egypt and worked through public diplomacy briefs and the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. It has been friendly help, not interference. I think that we were given something of an assurance today that there will be discussions. However, the House is entitled to know in a little more detail how we are going to set about that. Otherwise, it seems to be against a background where it is very hard to make any assessment of what is likely to happen, when it will happen and what impact we think we will have.
Egypt
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Baroness Warsi
The visit of the Archbishop of Canterbury to Egypt was timely, and of course we are concerned about the ongoing violence, especially the violence which occurred in April at the Coptic church, St Mark’s Cathedral. We are engaged in a number of projects in Egypt through the Arab Partnership. Some £1.7 million has been allocated for 2012-13, and many of the projects involve grass-roots work with community organisations from different faiths to create a sense of understanding. It is important that the discussions and dialogue remain open, and I understand that there is an ongoing dialogue between al-Azhar and the Coptic Church.
Lord Triesman
My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for the detail of her response about an acute problem where demonstrations are growing in size and deaths have been recorded, where the army has threatened intervention, and where President Morsi says that he has no plans whatever to change policy, despite resignations from his own Government. Formal statements have been made by President Obama, and the United Nations has issued two statements. Mr Hague has encapsulated our Government’s position in 140 characters —he has tweeted. He says that he is concerned, and so am I, but I wonder if that is the way to express the gravitas of the United Kingdom in these circumstances. What advice has been given to our ambassador on an engagement with the contending forces to achieve a democratic and pluralist settlement that reflects a serious view from this country?
Baroness Warsi
I take issue with what the noble Lord has said. He will be aware that the Prime Minister was one of the first leaders to go into Egypt after the revolution. The Foreign Secretary has visited, as has the Minister with responsibility. We are incredibly engaged in the process, as is our ambassador. I think that the noble Lord will also agree that it is important that we are not seen to be deeply involved in telling the Egyptian people how they need to resolve this matter. We express our concern, we support them through projects and we make known our views. However, I do not think it is always necessary to engage in involvement by interfering in every aspect of local democracy.
Syria and the Middle East
Lord Triesman Excerpts(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Triesman
My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Warsi, for facilitating this very timely debate. Her strong statement on humanitarian aid was particularly welcome, although like the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Truro I am concerned about the effectiveness of such aid and want to ensure that it is completely effective—a point that was also emphasised by the noble Baroness, Lady Morris of Bolton.
The extent of the geography and the differences of analysis were always going to make this a diffuse debate, in which it is perhaps hard to find a focus save for the inevitable focus on Syria. I will start by endorsing in straightforward terms the words of my noble friend Lord Wood at the beginning of this debate about arms to rebels. That topic was analysed in some detail and with great insight by the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown; I will say for simplicity’s sake how strongly I agree with him, even if that causes him discomfort. As my noble friend Lord Wood also said, we need to understand the history of the region. I share the sense of urgency of the noble Lord, Lord Williams of Baglan, and the view of the noble Lord, Lord Howell, that we are not in a position to do nothing—a view that was repeated a moment ago by the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs. I also encourage the Minister to respond to the comments made by my noble and learned friend Lord Morris of Aberavon on some of the legalities, which should be addressed tonight. However, I am in the same position as my noble friend Lord Anderson: I aim for perhaps a wider regional appraisal. I apologise in advance to my noble friend Lord Turnberg if I do not focus tonight on Israel and Palestine. This is a similar starting point to the one taken by the noble Baroness, Lady Afshar.
It is striking that across Syria, through Lebanon, in Iran and still more in Iraq, through several of the Gulf states on both sides of the Horn of Africa, across north Africa, deep into the Sahara, and north of and in Mali we are witnessing a harsh sectarian war within Islam—or fronts in a war, as the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, described it a short while ago. The noble Lord, Lord Sheikh, has also focused on this, and the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, quite rightly focused on how these events have demonstrated some of the United Nations’ failures in getting a proper grip on it in the Security Council. Of course, the great paradox is that historically Islam was a religion marked by greater pluralist tolerance than a great many others were. However, now we see on many fronts a widespread war between Sunnis and Shia and subsects within each of those great traditions.
Tragically, the sectarian divide in some places now takes the form of sectarian barbarism. In Syria the Shia Alawites target Sunnis, with the undeniable help of the Iranian Shia, including the Revolutionary Guard and Lebanese Hezbollah. In Egypt, Sunnis launch lynch mobs against small Shia communities, encouraged by Salafist clerics, and attack Shia people as infidels. Extreme Salafists have entered Syria. The Syrian opposition ranges in a bewildering way from secular groups to al-Qaeda affiliates. Similar confrontational fronts can be seen right across the region. However, surely it is not adequate to see this as just a series of theological clashes—a point that was made earlier.
It is also clear that in several states minority clans have exercised or exercise power to the exclusion of the social, economic and religious rights of majority clans. Assad, Saddam and the Bahraini al-Khalifas oppress whoever constitutes the majority. In some cases, such as with the Egyptian and Saudi majority Sunnis, they oppress smaller Shia minorities. Almost all now also oppress Christians and members of other religions, across the Middle East, in north and west Africa and in some senses as far away as Pakistan. However, lest this is thought simply to be something happening within Islam, there seem to be similarities with the Buddhist oppression of Muslims and other minorities in south-east Asia.
This cannot be a contest over obscure or ancient disputes of religious legitimacy. For venal leaders, holding on to power is about holding on to power. For wider populations blighted by poverty, illiteracy and untreated disease, struggling for scarce power and resources and for a sustainable existence, religious difference becomes a symbolic sheen to legitimise brutal struggle. The enemy is far more easily stereotyped as the other. It is a dreadful but handy way of designating people, even neighbours, as enemies in life’s harshest competition, treating them as subhumans who get in the way of the fulfilment of particular groups’ aspirations—modern aspirations in some cases, but even the aspirations of some people to go back to premodernity.
How do we make sense of it, and what should we aim to do about it? Perhaps we should start with an unashamed question for us in the United Kingdom, and in effect the Minister opened with this proposition: what is the United Kingdom’s interest? Like the noble Lord, Lord Luce, I am keen to understand whether we are confident in answering that question, particularly in our assessment of Russian positions. The answer for the United Kingdom should never be cynical or neglect the interests of people where we share an explicit United Nations duty to protect, a duty that we share with others but where we have the highest expectation of ourselves and our allies. Our first interest, the precondition for the best, is assisting countries to become stable, making them less likely to morph into failed states harbouring people who in turn mean us harm. The analysis by the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, of the extent of the instability is one that I share.
Of course we prefer the fully fledged path to democracy, social inclusion and the rule of law, however tortuous those paths. Today Egypt comes back to the top of our agenda, or certainly should do. At 4.07 pm today, while we were debating, the Egyptian army announced that it will sort things out within 48 hours, confirmed at 4.53 pm as an ultimatum. In a previous debate in your Lordships’ House, I started by saying that it was risky to speak at all or to guess what would happen even in the duration of the speech. I was given a note halfway through that debate saying that Mubarak had gone. Who knows what the rest of today holds for that important and complex country—huge demonstrations, deaths at the storming of the Muslim Brotherhood headquarters, the prospects that I have just related of what might be a coup?
First, it is clear that steps towards economic regeneration have not been taken as promised. Unemployed youth, an underemployed middle class and a poor risk profile for investment are signals of failure. Things take time, but there needs to be evidence of a route map and milestones. Secondly, while few may want democratic elections to be routinely overturned, as may be happening at the moment, President Morsi surely has to grasp that he cannot rule exclusively for the Muslim Brotherhood and generate viable economic conditions if he does so.
Thirdly, he cannot aim to dominate all state and many non-state institutions. I shall give the House what I think is a non-trivial but strange example: Mr Morsi ruled in the past few days that he would field, and if necessary impose, Muslim Brotherhood candidates for the boards of all the major football clubs, starting with those in Cairo, snuffing out even the most elementary pluralism. That has resulted in a petition for his resignation attracting 15 million signatures, 2 million more people than voted for him a year ago. We are seeing perhaps a return of Mubarak’s authoritarianism with an anti-secular twist.
With the exception of a few organisations, I fear that there is little attempt to encourage civic participation and strength and civic society. Economically, no investment is going to come in, according to the World Bank, which states baldly that the ease of doing business in Egypt is that it is a bad place to start any business, as tax reform, protectionism and state control shackle all prospects. This is in sharp contrast in many ways with Tunisia, which has begun to develop those economic prospects in a serious way. Do the Government plan to host or participate in any conferences to create the right economic conditions that might stimulate the prospects of those countries?
It would be futile in the course of a debate today to range over Libya, where there may be rather more promise, or indeed Mali, which for several days was the absolute focus of attention in this House but has scarcely been mentioned ever since. We see in every one of these cases the need for an economic platform to be developed and for the opportunities for pluralism to go alongside it. Briefly, of course, I have to return to Syria against the backdrop of the huge caution that has been expressed in this House about what to do, given the complexities. The prospect is simply of a failed state on the borders of the United Kingdom’s closest allies in the region—Turkey, Israel, Jordan and, potentially, Palestine, at the very heart of the Middle East. Strategically, we need a stable transition from Assad’s dictatorship, and so do the Syrian people. I fully acknowledge the long-term reflections on this by the noble Lord, Lord Risby, and his analysis of Mr Assad’s present position.
The risks, so far as we have judged them until now, have outweighed intervention. We have responded with caution. We recognise that the fragmented opposition is exclusively a Sunni club, and not one that is capable of a balanced Syrian settlement. We are witnessing a death spiral into chaos; uncontrolled fragmentation means unending civil war, and of course that is unsustainable for everyone. It has already spilt over, as many noble Lords have said, into its neighbours; it knows no borders. It emboldens Iran, which may or may not be in a state of change—I share the hopes of the noble Lords, Lord Hannay and Lord Luce, but who knows?—and Hezbollah, to everyone’s strategic detriment. Lebanon is now absolutely and directly involved in the war. Al-Qaeda has one of its most potent fighting machines embedded in the region.
This is not Bosnia—of course it is not—but there are some comparisons. President Clinton finally intervened when 100,000 Bosnian men, women and children had died, more or less the figure that we see in Syria today. UN and Arab League forecasts are now that 100,000 deaths are likely to occur just in 2013 if Assad proceeds with impunity. A more active policy is therefore inevitable, and doing too little will simply grow the crisis to too great a proportion. President Putin, plainly unimpressed by what the Canadian Prime Minister called the G7+1 summit, must surely work urgently with Secretary Kerry to create a national platform, bringing together all the legitimate ethnic and religious leaders. The noble Lord, Lord Howell, said that a common global response was what was needed, and that is plainly what they must work for. The process needs Russia, China, Turkey and the key Arab and European states, and consideration, as my noble friend Lord Wood suggested, is needed about whether Iranian involvement would help.
We must consider first how to protect civilians, minorities, the vulnerable and the country’s neighbours. We must get control of the chemical and other unacceptable weapons. We must design transitional governance and justice, and safeguard humanitarian work.
I doubt that preconditions, even about a tyrant like Assad, are likely to appeal to President Putin. His help is crucial. The noble Lord, Lord Williams, was right: it is not a risk worth running to exclude Russia or to suggest to the Russians that we have taken no account of them, particularly, as the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, said, given the preoccupations that they will have with their own southern borders and the character of the struggles there.
To me, success would look like security sector reform, disarmament, the reintegration of combatants, improved governance, a date for elections, economic recovery and reconstruction scheduled to start. In this, I draw on Richard Holbrooke’s experience before and during Dayton: the least worst outcomes, even if they artificially create within the country smaller but secure and economically viable entities, may be the only solution with which people can live with some prospects. The opposition may indeed have indulged in terrible violence—I believe it has—but that can no longer be any kind of excuse for anyone, including for President Assad. A murderous regime has to understand that there is no victory that is followed that way by impunity, no freedom to bomb civilians to extinction.
The Security Council, or certainly its permanent members, should provide no further means to fly or to protect flights until Geneva II has been called, has negotiated and has concluded. There should be no long-term recognition of any regime that simply proceeds by violence. I say this because priority must be given to the negotiations, and no negotiation is an unthinkable course of action. That means that there can be no one-sided flow of weapons, and even with credible monitoring I suspect that that would be a huge difficulty. We might as well be candid about that, because I suspect that there is no control over events on the ground in a way that would be tolerable for us.
The priority for the United Kingdom Government, our allies and our interests is how we can promote Geneva II urgently. How can we add to the pressure not just for Geneva II but for the background work that is essential to make it successful? What process do we envisage as the urgent consequence of the G8 at the United Nations and elsewhere? Country by country, it is measurable goals of political and vital economic progress that will build the United Kingdom’s security in that region.