EU: UK Membership

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Tuesday 25th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, I, too, congratulate my noble friend Lady Smith on her excellent maiden speech. She is clearly going to be a great asset to this House. I especially want to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, on a magnificent speech. I hope that his think tank, Policy Network, will give it the widest possible circulation.

I, too, was going to quote the occasional warm words that the Prime Minister has issued, especially in his Bloomberg speech. I was going to quote the same words, but I will add one other quotation. He said:

“There is no doubt that we are more powerful in Washington, in Beijing, in Delhi because we are a powerful player in the European Union. That matters for British jobs and British security”.

He added that the status of an outsider, like Norway or Switzerland, was no alternative. He then set out the areas in which he said the Union needs reform: competitiveness; flexibility; greater subsidiarity; and democratic accountability through a greater role for national parliaments. Subsequently this agenda was adopted by the European Council, so what more could he ask for? But that is no longer enough.

I agree that if Mr Cameron should become Prime Minister again after May, the odds are getting stronger by the day that he will take Britain out of the European Union. His speeches have become more and more Eurosceptic. He has apparently licensed his Cabinet colleagues to indicate their preference for Brexit and he appointed a declared Europhobe as Foreign Secretary. Why has he changed course and what is his real policy? It is appeasement of UKIP and his Europhobe Back-Benchers. As the Financial Times observed in a recent editorial, he has placed the interests of his party and his own survival as Prime Minister before the interests of the country.

The central issue is now immigration, which was not even on the Bloomberg list. We do not yet know what he will say in the long-trailed, great speech, but the Prime Minister has recently talked of quotas, caps and emergency breaks. With his concentration on rhetoric rather than diplomacy, which Sir John Major wisely advised him to abandon, he boasts:

“I will not take no for an answer”.

Both the leaders of the Nordic countries at the Helsinki conference and Angela Merkel have made it clear that caps and quotas are non-starters, as they contradict a basic principle of the single market. However, encouraged by his speeches and his actions, what Europhobes now expect from renegotiation is a British opt-out from the treaty commitment to the free movement of labour. Anything less will be seen as only a cosmetic change.

What if Mr Cameron is Prime Minister again after May, perhaps as the head of a minority Government supported by a substantial UKIP presence, the DUP and perhaps an assortment of allies on particular issues? He has pledged to conclude renegotiations before the referendum in 2017. What if there is no deal by then? It is not inconceivable. There would have to be a deal not for Britain especially but for the EU as a whole and many other countries want different changes. It will be no quick and easy negotiation. The date does not help, as there will be federal elections in Germany and the presidential election in France. Would he still recommend a stay-in vote without a deal? His party would never let him and, if he tried, he would be replaced. Anyway, he has declared that to recommend a stay-in vote without a deal is out of the question. Suppose he gets a deal. What if his party rejects it as cosmetic? There would be a new Conservative leader and the Conservative Government would then passionately argue in the referendum for out. A 2017 referendum, with a public mood of widespread xenophobia and anti-immigration feeling, nurtured by a significant UKIP presence in Parliament and a stridently anti-European press, would be a very different campaign from that of 1975.

Consider what Brexit would mean for British influence in the world. It would break up the United Kingdom. Why should a pro-EU Scotland want to stay in a Britain that was no longer in the EU? Even if the United Kingdom survives, Britain’s voice would no longer count, as the Prime Minister has admitted, in the United States, the Commonwealth or China. If Mr Cameron becomes Prime Minister again, the course on which he has set would make him the Prime Minister who did more to destroy British influence in the world than any of his predecessors in history.