Spring Forecast Statement

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2026 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB) (Valedictory Speech)]

My Lords, it is with a mix of sadness and excitement that I address your Lordships’ House this last time. The sadness is because I shall miss participating in debates, particularly on Africa, and especially participating in the Select Committee work of your Lordships’ House and the APPG work. It has been an enormous privilege. I shall also miss seeing noble Lords who have become great friends over so many years. I had hoped to make my valedictory speech on the Space Economy report by the Select Committee so ably chaired by the noble Baroness, Lady Ashton, but sadly we have run out of time on that score.

I am enormously grateful to the doorkeepers, the refreshment department and all the staff of the Palace for the incredible support that they have given me over so many years and continue to give to all of us. I am very grateful to my noble friend Lord Kinnoull for his able stewardship and leadership of the Cross Benches.

I have to say that I joined the House of Lords more out of curiosity than desire. I say that because I was just 21 when my father died. I joined your Lordships’ House six months before the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took control in Iran and six months before Margaret Thatcher became our Prime Minister. I joined for one primary reason: namely, I wanted to speak about the opportunities and challenges facing South Africa and southern Africa, and to petition for the release of Nelson Mandela, known as Madiba to all of us. After my health challenges last year, I decided that time was up. I am excited now to be spending more time in Africa. That is enough about me.

I shall restrict my comments today to the Spring Statement and not the finance Bill. There are three points that I want to raise. Clearly, the Chancellor’s forecasts have been overtaken by geopolitical events in the Middle East, leaving more questions than answers. We are now exposed, once again, to the very conditions that we thought we had escaped: energy-driven inflation and stagnating growth. The Statement underestimates the scale of the structural challenges that we now face. Surely, against a backdrop of spiralling fuel costs, now is the time to reconsider the strategic role of our domestic energy resources—more specifically, the North Sea. Would it not be wiser, during a period of geopolitical instability, to support responsible domestic production while we continue the transition to cleaner energy sources? It is not a question of abandoning our commitment to net zero but of recognising that the transition must be managed in a way that preserves resilience.

My second point is that the public procurement of goods and services now accounts for between one-quarter and one-third of all government expenditure, amounting to in excess of £300 billion a year. Even modest inefficiencies within a system of that scale can translate into tens of billions of pounds of avoidable costs. At a time of constrained fiscal headroom, it is essential that we focus not only on what the Government spend but on how effectively they spend it. What steps are His Majesty’s Government taking to deploy artificial intelligence to improve efficiencies, reduce duplication and identify cost savings across the procurement ecosystem?

I was fortunate way back in 2017 to be a member of the sub-committee on artificial intelligence so ably chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Clement-Jones. None of us then had any preconception about the impact that AI would have on all our lives. We now need to confront the other side of the AI revolution: the impact it is likely to have on employment. Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly drive productivity as well as growth, but it will also displace roles, particularly in admin and in the professional and middle-income sectors. We are in effect entering a period where technological progress may coincide with structural labour market disruption, and this presents a fundamental policy challenge. I cannot assume that the labour market will adjust itself organically. We need to act deliberately.

Thirdly, the noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Wirral, has been constantly questioning what measures His Majesty’s Government are taking to reduce spiralling unemployment in the UK. Can the Minister elaborate on what is being done to invest in promoting large-scale reskilling programmes, incentivising businesses to retrain their workforces and forging closer partnerships between industry, government and education? If we fail to do so, we risk creating a two-speed economy where opportunity expands for some but contracts for many.

In conclusion, the Chancellor’s spring forecast reflected a world of gradual recovery and relative stability, but the world that we now face is far more volatile, more uncertain and more complex, and this demands a shift in thinking.

I close with the Xhosa words from South Africa: “Enkosi kakhulu, sala kakuhle”, which means “Thank you very much, goodbye”.