European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Report stage (Hansard): House of Lords
Tuesday 7th March 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Spicer (Con)]

The noble Lord, Lord Robathan, did not ask the question the noble Lord has just said he asked; he asked whether there might be a third referendum. If the noble Lord cannot give an answer to that, why will there not be a fourth referendum to decide which of the previous three referendums was the real thing?

[Lord Newby]

I would have thought that that is fairly clear. People voted to start the process and we get to the point where there is a deal. At that point, the people should decide, finally, on whether the deal is acceptable. There would be no need, no point, and no issue for having a third referendum after that second decisive referendum.

The Economy

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Thursday 28th April 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

I think it may be his objective and I find it the most irresponsible statement I have ever heard, given the history of Europe through which we have lived and which we know from the history books.

Whatever the relationship with the EU is likely to be, it will not be on the same terms as now. Even in the closest feasible relationship, such as that with Norway, we will have to accept the rules and costs of membership with no say over them. This will have a negative effect on trade, particularly in services. In financial services, failure to retain the right of companies to passport their services from the UK to the rest of the EU, if we form an agreement on those lines, would undoubtedly lead to significant job losses in the City— some estimate as many as 100,000—to the benefit of Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin, which certainly have the capacity to pick up the baton. If we were unable to keep the passporting rights, rules set by the EU would undoubtedly over time, as sure as night follows day, disadvantage the City. So, whatever the post-Brexit relationship, our position re trade with the EU will be less favourable than it is now.

What do the Brexiters say? They say we do not need to worry about trade with the EU because outside the EU our trade with the rest of the world would blossom, particularly with the fastest growing countries in Asia and Latin America. This argument has been used in recent days by as wide a group as not only Michael Gove but the noble Lord, Lord Owen, and Sir Ian Botham. However, for this to be true it would have to be the case that UK companies are currently hobbled from exporting outside the EU, that we would be able to get better trade deals by negotiating on our own and that there is a reserve army of UK companies waiting in the wings ready to take up those new opportunities.

All these assertions are false. Are British companies currently constrained from exporting outside the EU because of EU rules? There is no evidence for this. True, we export less than Germany by a factor of over two to China, India, the US and Brazil. However, the fact that Germany exports so much shows that EU membership in itself is not a barrier to successfully exporting globally. Indeed, over the past decade, our exports to some of these countries has greatly increased—to China by over 70% and India by almost 30%. The reason for our relatively poor historic performance and relatively strong recent performance has had nothing to do with the EU—it is because there has been a concerted push by British exporters, backed by the Government, to increase exports to those countries which was largely lacking before. It is worth emphasising that our exports to the BRIC countries, even if you include South Africa in that definition, is well under 10% of the total, compared to 17% to the US, let alone the 44% to the EU.

The second myth is that we would get better trade deals on our own if we were not held back by the EU. This myth has been romantically advanced by Ian Botham in respect of the English-speaking, cricket-playing members of the Commonwealth.

[Lord Spicer (Con)]

One of the wisest observations on this matter of trade was made by my noble friend Lord, Lord Lawson. He said that it was all irrelevant anyway because 75% is covered by the World Trade Organization rules.

[Lord Newby]

The World Trade Organization’s rules are, in many ways, the worst option. Why are we having all these trade negotiations with countries around the world when we already have the WTO rules? The reason is that they are not good enough—otherwise we would not be spending years trying to get better deals. Incidentally, we spent years trying to get another round of WTO improvements and failed. The only reason for bilateral deals as the EU is because we could not get better deals via the WTO route.

As I was saying, all the Commonwealth countries that play cricket, as far as I am aware, have said that they wish us to remain in the EU. Indeed, the reason we have had difficulties in exporting to India is because of the protectionist policies of the Indian Government. It has ranged from difficulties in exporting Scotch whisky through to extreme difficulties for British lawyers and accountants doing business and setting up businesses in India. As to the US, President Obama made the position starkly clear last week. We would be at the end of the queue for a trade deal, a position supported by Hillary Clinton.

The third myth is that there is an army of companies champing at the bit to do business in far-flung parts of the world rather than in the EU. However, the surveys undertaken by the Federation of Small Businesses when I was a Minister pointed out that the vast bulk—well over two-thirds—of small businesses thinking of exporting for the first time looked to do so to the EU. The reason is obvious. It is inelegantly expressed in the Treasury’s equations as “dist”—that is, the distance between the UK and EU compared to other markets. Small companies often cannot afford the time, expense and complexity of undertaking sales and marketing activities in China, say, compared to France. This was borne in on me with a small manufacturing company in the high Pennines that I know. Out of the blue it got a £50,000 order from Brazil. The marketing manager was immensely excited and went to the manager saying, “I want to go to Brazil to meet these people, whoever they are, and to expand over there”. He was told, “I am terribly sorry but you can’t. We can’t afford the time or the money”. If that had been an order from France, he would have been on the next plane.

The growth rates of some of the alleged El Dorados of the BRICs and elsewhere are now lower than those in the EU and the challenges of corruption and weak legal rights in many of them have not materially abated. The overwhelming arguments about the straightforward trading advantages of being inside the EU are reinforced by the beneficial effect of membership on direct investment and productivity. The Minister has outlined those arguments and so I will not refer to them.

It seems to me that all the arguments in respect of trade are absolutely compelling and need to be deployed as effectively as possible over the coming weeks. They are set out comprehensively in the Treasury’s analysis of the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives. However, the document, despite a perfectly good summary, is not easily accessible to the lay person. Therefore my only question for the Minister is this: what is the Treasury going to do to promulgate the headline arguments in that document in a clearer and more readily understandable way?

I have not said anything about the short-term shock which leaving the EU would undoubtedly cause the UK Government, but clearly that will also be considerable. The judgment the Government have taken in having a referendum in the first place is an extremely risky one and is probably the decision by which they more than any other Government will be judged. It is in all our interests that we get it right.

Airports: Heathrow Third Runway

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Tuesday 17th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Spicer]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what forecast they have made of the tax revenue which will be raised from employment and investment as a result of the construction of a third runway at Heathrow.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, the Government have not made any forecasts of this type. The Airports Commission has been tasked with independently assessing the options for proposed new airport capacity and will present its analysis and conclusions in its final report in summer 2015. In the mean time, the Government do not propose to comment on any of the shortlisted options.

[Lord Spicer (Con)]

If it requires a third runway to make Heathrow fully effective, I suspect that many if not most of your Lordships would accept that it should be built. Indeed, I guess that many of your Lordships will agree with me that it is almost bound to be built at some point in the future. The Cornish, I think, would call that “shortly”, but we would just say “in the future”. There is only one supplementary question that I can think of to ask my noble friend—politely and agreeably, I hope—and that is: when?

[Lord Newby]

I am tempted, of course, to say “shortly”, but it is the next Government who will respond to the report of the Davies commission. However, I think that it is worth pointing out that the Davies commission concluded that although one new runway will be needed, it will not be needed in the south-east until 2030.

Economy: Inflation

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Tuesday 11th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

There is a question over whose deficit we are talking about here. The noble Lord knows that since the 2010 election, employment has increased by 1.3 million; unemployment is down by 152,000; there are more women in work than ever before; and every single survey for the future suggests higher income, more people in work and a growing economy. That is a record to be proud of.

[Lord Spicer (Con)]

This has all become a little bit distorted. Does my noble friend agree that inflation is a bad thing and that keeping it down is the rightful priority of the Bank of England?

[Lord Newby]

Indeed, my Lords. Whatever the forward guidance of the Bank of England, it does not detract from its basic purpose, which is to keep inflation at or around 2%. That is the position we are now in and we believe that it will be the position going forward.

Economy: Growth

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Tuesday 11th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Spicer]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their latest projections for the economic growth of (1) the British, and (2) the Scottish, economy in 2014.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, the Office for Budget Responsibility is responsible for producing independent economic and fiscal forecasts for the UK economy. The OBR published a full analysis of the prospects for economic growth, employment and inflation in its forecast at the Autumn Statement. The OBR forecast for the UK is that the UK economy will grow by 2.4% in 2014. The OBR does not make separate forecasts for the countries that make up the UK.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Spicer (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that there is a great difference between the two economies, and that this provides one reason why the Governor of the Bank of England was so right when he said that it would be virtually impossible for an independent Scotland to keep the pound? Indeed, is it not the case that if Scotland does fly the nest, it will not take many eggs with it?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, there is increasing evidence from the business community that it believes that its involvement in the Scottish economy would be reduced were Scotland to become independent; for example, in recent weeks, Bob Dudley from BP has said that there would be “big uncertainties” about its continuing investment in Scotland. He is just one of a number of representatives of major firms who have questioned their long-term involvement in the Scottish economy if Scotland became independent.

Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill

Debate between Lord Spicer and Lord Newby

Tuesday 26th November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Spicer]

I have enormous respect for the noble Lord, Lord McFall, but I think the idea of legislating to be more responsible—in fact, legislating for human character—is a very dangerous path. It is why I intervened on the question of minimum standards of integrity: you are either honest, or you are not honest. It is quite dangerous to keep loading the statute book with matters which attempt to affect human characteristics. I think that there should be some caution about some of these amendments.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, this is a very large group of amendments dealing with another key aspect of the Government’s reform-namely, how to drive up standards across the banking system. The Government’s amendments in this group, and in the following group, widen the range of firms covered by the reform. They respond to points made in Committee, and I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for his welcome for them, but we will deal with them in more detail when we come to the next group.

I would like first to respond to the concern that the Government’s Committee stage amendments did not implement the commission’s recommendations for what it calls the licensing regime. To be completely clear, the Government are committed to implementing the vast majority of the commission’s recommendations on the regulation of individuals in banking, including its recommendations to introduce a licensing regime. The regulators, in their responses to the commission published in October, confirmed that they would do this.

The Government’s amendments in Committee put in place all the essential features of the commission’s licensing regime proposals in Clauses 22 and 23. These clauses give the regulator power to make rules of conduct imposing binding standards on employees and ensure that the regulators can take action when there is any breach of these rules. The relevant provisions would form part of FiSMA and confer powers on the regulators in the normal way.

However, we recognise that this may not be seen as giving the full weight and impetus to the commission’s proposals, so we are looking to see whether we can bring forward at Third Reading amendments which will highlight the proposals more and put beyond doubt the determination which we all share to see real change in this area. In the light of this, the Government are looking to introduce amendments at Third Reading to impose obligations on banks and PRA-regulated investment firms, first, to verify before appointing someone as a senior manager, an employee in a role that could do significant harm to the firm or another role requiring regulatory pre-approval that the person is fit and proper to perform that role in the firm; secondly, to maintain up-to-date lists of such persons which could be made available to the regulators when required; thirdly, to notify the appropriate regulator when they take formal disciplinary action against such persons—formal disciplinary action could include giving a formal written warning, dismissal, suspension or clawing back remuneration; and, fourthly, to notify all such persons of the banking standards rules that apply to them. All these obligations will be regulatory requirements under FiSMA. Failure to comply with the obligations will be a breach of regulatory requirements, and actions could be taken against the bank concerned by the regulators. In addition, deliberately or recklessly submitting a materially false or misleading list of persons to a regulator will be a criminal offence.

The Government will also look at tabling amendments requiring, rather than simply empowering, the regulators to set out those functions for which a bank must do the above. We anticipate that this class will match the category of staff defined in the PCBS report as being those whose actions or behaviour could seriously harm their employer, its reputation or its customers. I hope that when we produce those amendments they will satisfy the concerns addressed by the most reverend Primate.

There are certain detailed respects in which the Government have decided not to follow the recommendations of the commission. These do not change the substance of the impact of the regime, but they will ensure its effectiveness. First, the commission envisages that the licensing regime provisions would entirely replace the regime of regulators, giving pre-approval to people below senior management level. That would mean dropping regulatory pre-approval for all appointments below senior management level, including in areas such as money laundering, with which the noble Lord, Lord Brennan, and others were particularly concerned in Committee.