Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [HL]

Lord Sassoon Excerpts

Monday 31st January 2011 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

1: Schedule 1, page 13, line 38, at end insert—
“( ) The members appointed under paragraph 1(1)(c) constitute a committee of the Office to be known as the Non-executive Committee.”

[The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon)]

My Lords, we usefully teased out a number of issues on this Bill in Grand Committee, so I am pleased to be able to come back to the House with a number of amendments, of which this group is the first. Our amendments very much reflect a number of critical points that we discussed in Grand Committee.

Perhaps I should start with Amendment 4, on which Amendments 1 and 2 are essentially consequential. We are talking here about the independence of the OBR. Amendment 4 will formalise the role of the non-executive directors in reporting on the extent to which the OBR’s duty has been performed, in accordance with Clauses 5(1) and 5(2) of the Bill. To ensure the OBR’s credibility, it is important that the OBR is able to operate with the complete discretion provided for at Clause 5(1) and in line with the principles of Clause 5(2). Amendment 4 provides a mechanism for the non-executive directors to report on anything that they believe has prevented the OBR from carrying out its duty with complete discretion and “objectively, transparently and impartially”. Such a report will feature as part of the OBR’s annual report, which is to be laid before Parliament. For example, the non-execs might report on any interference with the preparation and publication of the OBR’s reports or any attempt to control the OBR through manipulating its budget.

Amendment 12 will remove the provision that states that the charter may include guidance on Clauses 5(2) and 5(3). That will address the particular concern raised in Grand Committee that the charter could be used to redefine the commonly used terms “objectively, transparently and impartially”. It is not the Government’s intention to subvert what these terms mean through the charter. The amendment will therefore remove the marker that strongly indicates that the charter will define what these terms mean.

Amendment 13 will change the process for amending the guidance in the charter. Concerns were raised in Committee that such modifications could be done too easily, which would again undermine the independence of the OBR. Amendment 13 requires the Treasury to publish any revisions to the guidance at least 28 days before the modified charter is laid before Parliament for approval in another place. This period of 28 days, which is consistent with the period used in other secondary legislation, will provide further opportunity for scrutiny of and comment on the guidance before it is voted on. If appropriate, the Government could respond to, or make changes in the light of, this scrutiny before the formal version is laid for approval.

Other safeguards remain in place. The charter is limited to considering the functions conferred on the OBR in the Bill and cannot add or distort them. The charter must also be approved by an affirmative resolution in another place before it comes into force.

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[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I am grateful for the general support around the House which this group of amendments seems to command. I am very happy for noble Lords to take credit for the ideas in there, if they wish to do so. Although the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, may not quite understand or want to appreciate why we have grouped these amendments together, they all touch critically on the independence of the OBR.

I am grateful to my noble friend Lady Noakes for pointing out that in the OBR’s short existence—even before it is within a statutory framework—Robert Chote and his colleagues have done a remarkable job through the quality and extent of their work to carve out an unchallenged reputation for quality of thinking and independence. Of course, we need to make sure that the Bill underpins that. In that context, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Burns, who speaks from a position of great authority as a former Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, for pointing out that for all the OBR’s independence, HM Treasury will need to retain a separate capability to monitor and assess the progression of the economy. I thought that his admirable summary was the answer to the question of the noble Lord, Lord Barnett.

I had a sense of déjà vu, because I thought we were going back to Oral Questions with the first part of the noble Lord’s intervention. We will pass over our regular sparring about the Monetary Policy Committee, but his questions on why the OBR is needed and its independence were partly answered by the noble Lord, Lord Burns. Fundamentally, over the past few years, as the previous Government redefined the cycle, there was not an appropriate degree of transparency around the forecasts, which is why we believe the OBR is necessary. I do not want to dwell on that because we spent a lot of time on that at Second Reading and in Committee.

The job now is to get that independence properly enshrined in the Bill, which takes me to the suggestions from the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. Also, on the comment from my noble friend Lord Newby, I am sorry that the parliamentary draftsmen did not precisely agree with his wording but grateful for confirmation that we got to the same result. On the couple of questions from the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, on Clause 5(3), indeed the OBR now has a clear and explicit duty to consider government policies in its work. That is what the OBR is essentially all about: assessing the impact of government policies and, on the back of that, whether the fiscal mandate will be met. Clause 5(3) is indeed now quite clear on that.

Clause 6(1) is quite explicit that the charter may still give guidance on other topics but there is a particular signal that the charter may give particular guidance on timing. When the noble Lord comes on to press me on the draft charter, I think that we will all agree on how important the transparency of the remit is. The critical point, as I hope noble Lords would agree, is that we published the draft charter early on in our discussions, to enable that to be fully considered in Committee. As my noble friend Lord Newby said, any consequential redrafting of the charter as a result of our discussions will be small.

The essential point is that we issued a draft charter in very good time for discussion now. There is no overwhelming need to issue a new draft, simply because not a lot will have changed. We have been clear on the issues that we have looked at again. While I hear what has been said, I do not want to prejudice how the charter and the Bill might be looked at as they go through the stages in another place, as and when we send the Bill there. I hope that answers the various points that have come up on this group of amendments.

Amendment 1 agreed.

Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

2: Schedule 1, page 14, line 13, leave out “The Budget Responsibility Committee” and insert “A committee established by paragraph 9”

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

3: Schedule 1, page 14, line 26, at end insert—
“Review by Non-executive Committee12A The Non-executive Committee must keep under review the way in which the Office’s duty under section 4 is performed.”

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, producing high-quality work requires the OBR to have access to all relevant information and expertise. The Bill provides for this through a right of access to information, a Budget Responsibility Committee of experts and a duty to act transparently. In response to the discussion in Grand Committee, these arrangements are intended to be bolstered by the two amendments that we are bringing forward.

Amendment 3 gives the non-executives a duty to keep under review the processes that the OBR uses to assure that it is producing the best possible work. These are likely to be management processes that the non-executives will be well placed to consider. Examples might include: whether the OBR is consulting with a wide and appropriate range of experts, including academics and internationally; whether it is working effectively with the rest of government to produce analysis; and, to make sure that it follows up lessons from internal reviews.

Amendment 5 requires the non-executives committee periodically to commission independent expert reviews of the OBR’s work. In detail, it needs to consider frequency: these reviews could be carried out at times considered appropriate by the non-executives, but “at least” every five years. In scope, the review will consider work published in the relevant period. The non-executives will determine which of the OBR’s reports are to be considered. That could be all the OBR’s work or a particular theme could be focused upon. This flexibility is important to ensure that maximum value is always gained from the reviews. There is then the question of the reviewer. The non-executives would appoint a person or body with the appropriate knowledge or experience to carry out each review. Although we expect the reviews to have minimal costs, there is provision in the Bill for the OBR to make payments to the reviewers—for example, for their expenses. Each review will be published and a copy laid before Parliament. I beg to move.

[Lord Eatwell]

My Lords, I think that everyone who took part in Grand Committee will feel that these amendments should be dedicated to the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes—who I am afraid is not in her place to hear this—as it was she who, at Second Reading, raised the issue of writing one’s own school report and the necessity of having an independent assessment of the OBR’s performance. Amendments 3 and 5 therefore establish the responsibility of the non-executives to keep under review the activities of the OBR, relative to its main duty. An important component of this monitoring will be the commission of the third-party reviews of the OBR’s performance, as described by the Minister.

We are entirely supportive of the Government’s amendments in this respect, other than in one crucial aspect. Amendment 5 proposes that an assessment by an independent person or body should be carried out,

“at least once in every relevant 5-year period”.

The final part of the amendment, proposed in new sub-paragraph (7), says,

“the period of 5 years beginning with 1 October 2010”.

However, as will be evident from Amendment 6, which I shall be moving, we on this side think that five years is too long a period. First, as a professional economist, I feel that five years is much too long for an organisation to be running before its activities are assessed independently. After all, the OBR will be producing more than one report a year—in fact, there will be three or four reports—so within three years there will be a substantial body of material for an independent assessor to consider. The independent review will also have value for the OBR. It will provide informed third-party input into its techniques and procedures, and postponing that for five years will unnecessarily weaken the expertise that feeds into the OBR’s work. Of course, expert appraisal of the OBR’s activity will also be an important input into parliamentary scrutiny, and I think that in parliamentary terms we should want more regular consideration than is provided by this amendment.

That parliamentary element leads me to the second reason why five years is too long. Setting a five-year appraisal period politicises a process that should be entirely apolitical. If the Government secure the constitutional reforms that they have proposed, five years will be the length of a fixed-term Parliament; hence the OBR review will become part of a five-year political cycle. Indeed, as I emphasised to noble Lords just now with regard to proposed new sub-paragraph (7) in the amendment, the timing has been set carefully so that a review takes place just after the next election. Review of the work of the OBR should be divorced from the political cycle and not linked to it in any way. That is why my Amendment 6 sets the review period at three years. This will achieve the dual objective of allowing timely consideration of the work of the OBR, giving Mr Chote and his colleagues the benefit of that professional input and stimulus, but most important of all, establishing a cycle of review which is divorced from the political cycle. That is a crucial aspect in maintaining independence and cross-party respect for the work of the OBR.

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[Lord Barnett]

My Lords, as from time to time I disagree with my noble friend Lord Eatwell, I make it clear that on Amendment 6 I strongly agree with him. It makes sense to separate the review from the political cycle. I will disagree with him at a later stage, but on this I thought that he made a very good point.

I am never surprised at the noble Lord, Lord Burns, speaking as if he is on the Treasury Front Bench. We should not be surprised; he has been doing it all his life. He did a marvellous job in the Treasury, particularly for the five years that I was there.

I thought that my noble friend Lord Eatwell made a good point about the cycle, as did my noble friend Lord Myners, and I hope that on reflection the Minister will accept the amendment. It makes a lot of sense and he might, on this occasion, accept it.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I start by welcoming the noble Lord, Lord Myners, back to the Chamber. I am not sure that he had quite got his script co-ordinated with the Front Bench, but I accept his congratulations. I will put aside their slightly backhanded nature. Next time I think he should speak to his Front Bench, which seemed to be taking sole credit for the government amendments that have come forward. Nevertheless, I am grateful to him.

[Lord Myners]

My Lords, the Minister will recognise that, speaking as I do from the Back Benches, I speak independently. I reach my own conclusions and express my own views. My congratulations to the Minister are in no way fettered by what those on my Front Bench might have said.

[Lord Sassoon]

I heard the noble Lord say that he wanted to add to the congratulations, but there were none before. Anyway, I am grateful to him. Perish the thought that he might have been out of the Chamber briefing the press on his mildly diverting, if somewhat predictable, contribution to Oral Questions, but let us move on. Noble Lords have focused on only one point in responding to this group of amendments, which is whether the backstop date, because I regard it as a backstop date—the noble Lord is obviously distracted by something in the corner of the Chamber. I want to address the point about the five-year backstop dates.

[Lord Myners]

The answer is an obvious absence of support for the Minister.

[Lord Sassoon]

I thought that I heard support from across the Chamber on this point. As I say, the issue is one of a backstop date. The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, is seeing chimera where none is to be seen in trying to link the political cycle with this five-year backstop date. We think that it is appropriate to have a date in there to ensure that the independent review happens at some stage, but it is most likely that the non-executive directors will indeed choose to have reviews on some other cycle or whenever they think it is appropriate. I absolutely agree with the noble Lord, Lord Burns, that we have to allow—it is proper to allow this—the non-executive committee the freedom to make up its own mind on this. A shorter period may well be decided on, particularly in the initial period of operation, just as, in the context of the Monetary Policy Committee, a review was carried out a couple of years into the new arrangements. Therefore, we should leave this to the committee’s judgment and not impose a rigid pattern on it.

It might be relevant to consider read-across or precedents from other comparable bodies. However, I have been able to tease out only one comparable read-across involving the Dutch Central Planning Bureau, which has a provision for external reviews every five years and has stuck to that model since 1945. That continues to work for that body.

[Lord Eatwell]

Does that body hold the review every five years or over a lesser period?

[Lord Sassoon]

I believe that it has the review every five years, but I think it would be wrong to have a fixed provision of five years. One of the dangers of having a shorter time such as three years is that it might become a regular feature. What we need here is flexibility but with a sensible and appropriate backstop date. It is also important to remember in this context that these external reviews are far from the only means through which the OBR is being and will be scrutinised. I remind noble Lords that the package of scrutiny goes much wider. First, there is the duty on the OBR to act transparently, which means that all its work is open to ongoing challenge and review—this is proving to be the case already—from any of the well regarded and distinguished think tanks and academics looking at its work. The OBR is required to produce an annual assessment of the accuracy of its fiscal and economic forecasts.

There is also the fact that the OBR intends to establish an advisory panel of experts to support and challenge its work on an ongoing basis, which not only is an important additional element of external challenge and review but brings the OBR into line with the best practice, drawn in this case from the United States’ CBO. I see the noble Lord nodding on that point.

On the basis of the argument put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Burns, and backed up by my noble friend Lord Newby, and considering the other elements of scrutiny that are ongoing and challenged externally, I ask the noble Lord to withdraw his amendment.

Amendment 3 agreed.

Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

4: Schedule 1, page 15, line 3, at end insert—
“( ) The report must include, in particular, an assessment by the Non-executive Committee of the extent to which the Office’s duty under section 4 has been performed in accordance with section 5(1) and (2).”

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

5: Schedule 1, page 15, line 12, at end insert—
“External review14A (1) The Non-executive Committee must, at least once in every relevant 4 5-year period, appoint a person or body to review and report on such of the Office’s reports as the Committee determines.(2) In sub-paragraph (1) “the Office’s reports” means the reports which— (a) have been made in pursuance of the Office’s duty under section 4, and(b) have been published since the relevant date.(3) The “relevant date” is—
(a) in the case of the first review carried out under this paragraph, 1 October 2010;(b) in the case of subsequent reviews, the date of the last review carried out under this paragraph.(4) A person or body may be appointed under this paragraph only if the person or body has knowledge or experience likely to be relevant to the performance of the Office’s duty under section 4.
(5) The Office may, with the approval of the Treasury, make payments to the person or body in respect of the performance of the person’s or body’s functions under this paragraph.
(6) The Office must—
(a) publish each report prepared under this paragraph,(b) lay it before Parliament, and(c) send a copy of it to the Treasury.(7) In this paragraph “relevant 5-year period” means—
(a) the period of 5 years beginning with 1 October 2010;(b) each successive period of 5 years.”

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[Lord Barnett]

The noble Lord, Lord Burns, never disappoints me. I am delighted to see that he agrees with the principle of the amendment. I agree with the principle but I disagree with the amendment. Once again, my noble friend Lord Eatwell ignores this House. He would like to see the scrutiny undertaken just by the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. I have no objection to that and, indeed, I would be delighted if the Minister accepted it, because the Treasury Select Committee of the House of Commons, under different chairmanships, has usually done a great job and continues to do a very good job now under a Conservative chairman. Why does my noble friend not wish to have this scrutinised, as my noble friend Lord Peston and I proposed in Grand Committee, by the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords? As a former chairman, I am prejudiced and my noble friend Lord Peston was a longer-term chairman of the committee. It has always done an excellent and very independent job in this House.

If the Minister is minded to accept an amendment occasionally, and can ignore the word “resist” in his brief, perhaps he might be willing to add to the amendment the words “the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee should also carry out scrutiny”. We now have a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury chairing the committee and doing an excellent job. On this occasion, I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, will accept the amendment as amended by my suggestion. I beg formally not to move.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, perhaps I may just get my head round the formal non-moving of an amendment that has not been put down. I shall try to give the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, the reassurance that he seeks in this area. The Government support the spirit of the amendment. Transparency and parliamentary scrutiny of the OBR’s budget are absolutely central to safeguarding its independence. I do not think that there is any difference between us on that point.

The next issue is getting a proportional arrangement which achieves the objective. The effect of the proposed amendment has already been achieved. In line with the Treasury Select Committee's recommendation, the annual budget of the OBR will be identified separately in the Treasury's estimate and it will be available for the Treasury Committee to scrutinise in another place. Nevertheless, we have gone further than the Treasury Committee asked for in order to enhance the transparency of the OBR’s budget and critically to protect it from any suggestion of politically motivated cuts. Again, in line with the Treasury Select Committee’s recommendation, the OBR will also be able to submit to the Treasury Select Committee an additional estimates memorandum alongside that of the Treasury in which it can explain for itself the reasons for changes in the available budget for the year ahead. I think that will go beyond what is proposed, in effect, in this amendment because the OBR will be free to explain in full what any changes in the budget mean.

I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Burns, that if we need to be concerned about anything here it is the multi-year aspects of it, which the proposed amendment does not address. The OBR has already been provided with an agreed and publicly documented multi-year budget, so that an annual budget exercise cannot be used to exert hidden pressure on the OBR. This specific element has been welcomed by the IMF.

I will divert for a moment to address one or two of the points raised by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, on some of the international experience in this area. While I am sure that the Toronto Globe and Mail is a fine source of reporting, I think it is relevant to remember that the Canadian Parliamentary Budget Officer is really not in any comparable position to the OBR. Its budget is not separately identified anywhere within the estimates of expenditure presented to the Canadian Parliament. It is a very different office from the one we are looking at. The Parliamentary Budget Officer in Canada was not given an agreed and published multi-year budget. I think we are in very different territory from Canada.

Hungary was mentioned. It is interesting to note that Hungary’s Fiscal Council chairman pointed out—I do not know whether this is correct—in the context of saying it was very, very rare to introduce substantial changes or abolish fiscal councils that the only example he could point to was Venezuela under Hugo Chavez abolishing its fiscal council. So there are one or two examples but they are not comparable examples. It is precisely to guard against any suggestion of such interference that we have put in place the measures that we have.

In trying to give the noble Lord the reassurance he seeks, we have discussed already the responsibility of the OBR’s non-executives. Critical to that is their duty to report on anything that appears to them to constrain the OBR’s discretion. Of course, that would include any attempt to control the OBR through manipulating its budget. To quote the chair of the Treasury Select Committee:

“It is vital that the OBR has the resources it needs. The Committee will monitor this carefully: the terms of reference suggest that the Treasury accepts the importance of transparency and separate disclosure, and we will have the information we need”—

we, the Treasury Select Committee—

“to do our work”.

The package of measures we propose for the OBR in the Bill follows the recommendations of the Select Committee and in the judgment of the Treasury fully reflects that intention. The chair of the OBR has already made clear that he has adequate resources and that he will promptly raise any issues on funding with the Select Committee—a very public forum in which to raise any concerns.

Finally, I will quote Robert Chote at his pre-appointment hearing in front of the Select Committee. He said:

“If you accede to my appointment and I find myself being squeezed in that way, this committee will be hearing about it very promptly. That’s how we make that public and ensure that those sorts of pressures do not go unremarked”.

I suggest that there are a considerable number of safeguards in place. Indeed, we go further than the noble Lord’s amendment because we believe that the multi-year dimension is as important as, if not more important than, the single year dimension to which his amendment refers. In view of the reassurance that I have been able to give him, in particular pointing to the role that we have just now confirmed for the non-executives, I hope that he will withdraw the amendment.

[Lord Eatwell]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have taken part in this short debate, not least because there seems to be a unanimity of purpose around the House. Perhaps I may address a couple of the points that were made. The first is the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Burns, supported by the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, about the word “annual” in my amendment. I think they are absolutely right. It should refer to the budget; the word annual should be taken out, then everything would flow quite nicely. However, the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, still does not quite grasp the idea that the OBR should not have to fight its own corner but should be given parliamentary protection in the budgetary field for the long term, not simply for the period for which Sir Nicholas Macpherson’s letter is relevant. We are looking beyond that provision.

The one element from which I derived some comfort in the reply of the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, was the issue of a separate line in the Estimates, which will provide the Treasury Select Committee with the opportunity separately to identify the budget of the OBR. My amendment would require that to be brought for scrutiny, rather than it simply being available, but I am willing to accept that that is a small point.

I suppose that I should accept being chided by my noble friend Lord Barnett for leaving the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee out of the amendment. I felt that since this was particularly an expenditure matter, it should be handled by the committee in another place. I am willing to stand corrected on that point.

However, I feel that there is general unanimity around the House that this issue is important in sustaining the independence of the OBR. I am grateful for the assurances that the Minister has given. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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I very much welcome my noble friend’s Amendment 9, but I hope that he may be prepared to accept that, if we do not have a single forecast, there is a case for making a comparison between the forecasts of the Bank of England and those of the OBR and that we should include in the OBR’s appraisal a clear estimate of the position on the economic cycle.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I should perhaps speak briefly to Amendment 9 at this stage. I will respond later if other noble Lords speak to Amendments 8 and 10.

On Amendment 9, the risks and assumptions of the OBR in producing its reports are critically necessary for a full understanding of its analysis. Provision to require the OBR to set those out was originally included in the draft charter. However, we recognise that a key purpose of the Bill is to provide appropriate assurances that the good practice already adopted by the OBR will continue. For that reason, Amendment 9 will elevate the provision from the draft charter to the face of the Bill and broaden the requirement to apply to all reports produced under the OBR’s main duty.

[Lord Eatwell]

On Amendments 8 and 10, the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, will have to suffer the possibility of inconsistent forecasts because that is, in a way, embodied in the independence and separation of the Bank of England. The whole point of an independent Bank of England, and the way the Labour Government set up the independent status of the Monetary Policy Committee and the Bank of England, is that it should be allowed to take an independent view. That independent view will be informed by its own research. This can lead not just to forecasting inconsistency but to policy inconsistency, but that is the price we are going to pay if we think this is an appropriate policy mix. The very distinguished late economist Sir James Meade pointed out many times that this separation could lead to serious policy inconsistency, and he was entirely opposed to its, none the less, that is the way we have constructed policy-making in this country, and that separation will bring with it the possibility—indeed, the probability—of some forecast inconsistency. However, we should note that recently the Governor of the Bank of England has been making many statements about fiscal policy, which is not his territory. That is very unfortunate. He seems to have encouraged the Prime Minister to make comments on interest rates, which are not his territory either. If this separation is deemed to be a good thing by our Parliament and policy-makers, I hope that the governor and the Prime Minister will respect it.

The problem I have with Amendment 10, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, is that I do not think the output gap is a precise notion which can be believed if you say it is 2.5 per cent or something like that. In the Budget debate and in the debate on the comprehensive spending review, I argued that it is a statistical construct. It has embedded within it a series of statistical assumptions. It was quite striking that in the first OBR report, the definition of the structural deficit was changed, to the benefit, I might add, of the Government’s arguments. Therefore, I do not want too much credibility to be put on what is a useful indicative statistic. The weight put on it can be taken too far.

I strongly support the Government’s amendments both on transparency of assumptions and consideration of the risks to which the economy might be exposed. The latter issue, with the OBR now being required to talk about the risks to which the economy is exposed, is very important. For example, let us suppose that we had had an OBR of 2006 vintage. That OBR could have expressed concerns about the fiscal risk the economy was subject to by being dependent on such a high proportion of tax revenues coming from just one sector of the economy, that of financial services. It would have had the opportunity to say, in facing that risk, that some diversification of revenue sources might be desirable. Similarly, in defining the sustainability of the public accounts, the OBR should take into account the risk to sustainability generated by the foreign balance and by the savings and spending behaviour of the private sector, and their interactions with the public balances. Providing these insights into the risks of public sector financial management would extend the debate about the public finances in a very useful way and would ensure that the debate is far better informed than it has been in the past. So I would like particularly to add the support of this side for government Amendment 9.

[Lord Newby]

I would like to echo the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, in two respects; first, in his comments on Amendment 9, which I will not repeat, and secondly, in his comments on Amendment 10. I am dubious about the value of giving enhanced status to an assessment of the output gap or when the economic cycle is likely to end for reasons largely already given by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. The output gap is not an absolutely firm context and figure that is easily grasped and measured. As we saw with the previous Government, a lot of weight was put on the economic cycle because the golden rule about government expenditure and borrowing depended on it. The problem was that whenever a difficulty arose, lo and behold, the definition of the cycle changed to push the difficulty back. It proved to be a far more elastic concept than we thought, and the old Ricardian economic cycle that depended on grain crops just does not obtain in quite the same way today. So while I am sure that the Office for Budget Responsibility may well wish to opine on these matters, and it will be quite interesting to know what it thinks, it is of secondary importance in setting government policy. Indeed, because of its somewhat nebulous nature, I would not want us to put too much weight on it again.

[Lord Sassoon]

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for his support for government Amendment 9, but let me say a few things in respect of Amendments 8 and 10 because my noble friend Lord Higgins has raised important issues. I agree with the spirit of the amendments in both cases, and I shall try to do justice to the points he has raised by explaining how I think the matters are or should be dealt with.

Amendment 8 concerns the question of economic and fiscal forecasts. On fiscal forecasts, a comparison is actually not possible because the Bank does not produce such a forecast. Rather, it incorporates the official fiscal forecast now produced by the OBR into its own economic forecasts, which reflects the expertise within the OBR and the information that the office as opposed to the Bank has access to. So that is dealt with because there is no comparison to be made.

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

9: Clause 4, page 2, line 32, at end insert—
“( ) Any report which the Office makes in pursuance of its duty under this section must include an explanation of the factors which the Office took into account when preparing the report, including (in particular)—
(a) the main assumptions made by the Office, and(b) the main risks which the Office considered to be relevant.”

[Lord Sassoon]

I beg to move.

Amendment 10 (to Amendment 9) not moved.

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

11: Clause 5, page 3, line 2, after “Office” insert “—
(a) must have regard to those policies, but(b) ”

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

12: Clause 6, page 3, line 9, leave out from “section” to end of line 10

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Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

13: Clause 6, page 3, line 14, at end insert—
“( ) If the Treasury proposes to modify the guidance included in the Charter by virtue of this section, a draft of the modified guidance must be published at least 28 days before the modified Charter is laid before Parliament under section 1(6).”

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[Lord Touhig]

My Lords, I do not intend to detain your Lordships for very long because this is exactly the same amendment that we debated in Grand Committee on 9 December. I did not press the amendment or the argument at that time because I was greatly encouraged by the debate, and in particular by the response of the Minister who certainly seemed to be in listening mode on that occasion.

I was a little disappointed to receive a letter from the Minister dated 21 December, listing the amendment that he has tabled this afternoon. I refer to the Government’s Amendment 15. This says that the Public Accounts Commission will have a role in specifying who should be consulted by former Comptrollers and Auditors-General on possible future appointments that they might wish to take up. My amendment says that this advice should be given by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments.

As I said, I do not wish to detain your Lordships, but I point out that the amendment is based on the 15th report of the Public Accounts Commission. My noble friend Lord McFall was a member of that commission when it reported in March 2008. It referred to the subsequent employment of former Comptrollers and Auditors-General and said that a,

“C&AG should be required under the terms of his or her contract to consult the Advisory Committee on Public Appointments”—

it should have been “on Business Appointments”—

“(currently chaired by Lord Mayhew) before accepting any employment whatever after leaving the post of C&AG and to abide by the decisions of that Committee”.

The advisory committee is now chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Lang of Monkton, and its remit is simple:

“The Advisory Committee on Business Appointments is an independent body which provides advice to the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, or other Ministers if requested, on applications from the most senior Crown servants who wish to take up outside appointments within 2 years of leaving Crown service”.

That body has the experience and background to provide the proper advice for any senior civil servant who wishes to take up an appointment after leaving public service. It would in my view be the appropriate body to give advice to former Comptrollers and Auditors-General. For the life of me, I cannot understand why the Government have not accepted this. Perhaps the Minister might say why it is that the Government now want to involve the Public Accounts Commission—another layer in between the time when a former Comptroller and Auditor-General would have to consult before he can consider taking up some other appointment. It may well be that the Public Accounts Commission will say to that former Comptroller and Auditor-General, “You must seek advice from the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments”. I do not know why we do not go straight to that point in the first place. I had hoped that the Minister would have put that in his amendment. He has not done so and I should be grateful to hear his response.

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I see the Chamber filling up. This amendment is clearly attracting a lot of interest but, just in case noble Lords have come for some other business, let me deal briefly at this stage with Amendment 15, together with Amendment 14 tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Touhig. Having reflected on the points made on this issue in Grand Committee, I agree that clarification is indeed merited on this question of the C&AG taking up future offices or appointments. That is why the Government’s Amendment 15 makes it clear that the Public Accounts Commission would specify the person or body, such as the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments, that a former Comptroller and Auditor-General should consult before he or she takes up another office or position having left the office of C&AG. We have come forward with that important clarification.

Amendment 14, tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, seeks to name the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments as the body that former C&AGs must consult. However, there is a difficulty in naming a particular body in legislation because names and responsibilities may change over time. The fact that the body recommended in the original report from the Public Accounts Commission is different from that in the amendment makes that very point. While we need to have a degree of clarification which was not in the original Bill, writing in a particular body that exists now but may not exist in time—and was not that recommended only a short time ago by the Public Accounts Commission—means that we need to have the balance of flexibility but the certainty that the Public Accounts Commission will nominate a body up front.

The Treasury has carried out a search to see whether we could find any similar requirement elsewhere in legislation. The only mention at all of the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments is in relation to the obligation placed on it under the Freedom of Information Act, so there is no equivalent hard-wiring in legislation of its other responsibilities to deal, for example, with appointments for former Ministers. We absolutely share the noble Lord’s desire that former C&AGs should not just listen to but take to heart the advice of the nominated adviser, just as Ministers and civil servants do. Perhaps it is relevant to say that my understanding of the position of the serving C&AG is that he would be willing to consult any independent authority that the commission nominates about any employment that he proposed to take up after leaving office. This was written into the letter of appointment that he signed before taking up office. What was not written into the letter was a requirement for the C&AG to abide by the decision of the independent authority. It was expected that the decision of that authority would be made public and that that would be sufficient to ensure compliance.

In respect of future C&AGs, I think it is fair that they should know which person they needed to consult at the start, before they take on the office. It is expected that the person to be consulted should be specified in the appointment letters of all future C&AGs, which would parallel the arrangements for Ministers and senior civil servants. The terms of the C&AG’s appointment are agreed between the chair of the Public Accounts Committee and the Treasury, on behalf of the Prime Minister, and would have to be signed off by the prospective C&AG before he or she takes up office. I believe that with the government amendment we are bringing forward, along with how I have described that it will work in reality, we have sufficiently covered all the bases intended by the noble Lord’s amendment without getting into a position where we might nominate a body that could be inappropriate in a number of years’ time. On the basis of that explanation, I ask the noble Lord to consider withdrawing his amendment.

[Lord Touhig]

I am grateful to the Minister because he is a man of his word: he has sought to clarify the matters that we discussed in Committee. He made a fair point in saying that, if we specify a body in legislation, that body could disappear or change with future legislation. The Public Accounts Commission referred to the Advisory Committee on Public Appointments, but I do not think that it even existed. I think that the commission was mistaken and that it should have referred to the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments. I suspect that ultimately we will reach the point that I have been arguing for and that it will in fact be the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments, although the Minister is going to take us on a bit of a route, going through the Public Accounts Commission, to get there. It is a bit like me travelling to Wales via Scotland but I am sure that we will get there in the end. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

--- Later in debate ---

Moved by

[Lord Sassoon]

15: Clause 15, page 5, line 36, leave out “may be so specified” and insert “is specified by the Commission”