Middle East

Lord Rosser Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Rosser]

My Lords, this has been an interesting and informative debate about a complex, diverse and less than entirely stable part of the world. I should like to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the work of our diplomats and aid workers in the Middle East and north Africa, and also to the work of media personnel who put their lives at risk and, tragically, sometimes lose them as a result of their courageous efforts to ensure that the outside world is kept informed of the dramatic developments taking place and, in Syria, the sheer brutality of what is happening.

No one can fail to be moved by the horrific scenes of violence that we have seen in Syria, not least in Homs. It is clear that my noble friend Lady Amos was appalled by what she saw, and we wish her and Kofi Annan well in their endeavours. The latest United Nations estimate is that more than 7,500 civilians have lost their lives during the conflict. This brutal repression is inexcusable, and responsibility for the death of these innocent people lies at the door of President Assad and his regime—a President and a regime who must be called to account for their actions, no matter how long it takes. There is a need to sharpen the choice facing those military officers being directed to kill their own civilians by the Assad regime by providing them with safe havens if they choose to leave the armed forces. A twin-track approach of increasing accountability for actions taken, alongside support for those in the regime who make the right choice, such as the deputy Oil Minister, is essential.

However, condemnation by the international community is not enough. Continuing diplomatic efforts are required. The Assad regime has no future and the President must go, which is why the failure to reach agreement in the Security Council was such a stain on the conscience of the world. We must continue to press the Russians to exercise the influence they claim to have over Assad to at least end the violence. We must play whatever part we can to ensure that the important and crucial pressure from the Arab League and regional powers remains coherent and consistent, and that economic and diplomatic sanctions on Syria through the European Union are effective.

The Syrian conflict has the potential to spill over into neighbouring countries, with tensions flaring in Lebanon and refugees fleeing across the borders at an ever increasing rate. As the Turkish Government have pointed out—and I fully support the Minister’s comments on the importance of Turkey’s role—the longer that this crisis continues, the greater are the prospects of ethnic, religious and sectarian fault lines re-emerging in Syria in ways that could make it harder still to reach a successful resolution to the conflict. Following the speech of my noble friend Lady Symons of Vernham Dean, I ask the Minister whether the Government are liaising with Arab Governments about the future of Syria after the Assad regime, bearing in mind the possible internal and external influence and pressures that might come into play.

At the Syrian regime’s side stands Iran—an Iran more isolated today than it has been for some considerable time, as it moves towards a military nuclear capability. In recent years, Iran has sought to build its influence across the Middle East, supporting groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah and repressive regimes that could help to enhance its influence in the region, most notably that of Assad in Syria. The recent events in Syria leave Iran even more isolated. Previously reluctant players, such as the Saudis, have now publicly condemned Iran and given their support to the EU oil boycott. Sanctions today, unlike those in the past are showing signs of having an impact and the Iranian regime seems to be struggling to contain their effect. Like other regimes finding themselves in a similar situation, the Iranian regime’s response to declining domestic legitimacy and increasing international isolation has been to seek to channel discontent towards external enemies beyond its borders and to continue to support terrorist groups.

In particular, members of the Iranian regime have directed their hatred towards Israel. The international community is united in condemnation of the regime’s violent and abhorrent rhetoric and the worldview that it reveals, but Israel needs to recognise that its friends in the international community see Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as affecting not just Israel’s security but that of the broader region and, indeed, the world. If Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, its capability to destabilise the Middle East would be enhanced. The potential response from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, among others, could put further at risk the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as they might well feel less inclined to rely on an American security guarantee. The risk of the proliferation of nuclear weapons would be heightened further by the track record of Iran in supporting and arming non-state actors and their violent methods.

We need to use all the diplomatic tools available to force the Iranian Government to change course. On occasion in the past, Iranian leaders have adjusted their behaviour in the face of international pressure. Sanctions are now beginning to put considerable pressure on the Iranian regime. The combined effect of international sanctions on the Iranian financial sector, including steps taken by the Government last year, has triggered an enormous currency devaluation which the regime is struggling to contain. Unemployment is high, growth is low and anger is mounting. It now appears that the Iranians may be willing to resume talks, although even if that is so, there is still the very real prospect that they may seek to draw out talks while continuing with their nuclear programme unabated.

We welcome the diplomatic steps that the international community has taken to increase further the pressure on Iran. What is needed now is an even more concerted and co-ordinated international response to try finally to convince the Iranian regime that the cost of international isolation is simply too great a price to pay. That is where the focus must be.

Although the cost of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is too high, we must make it clear to our friends in Israel that now is not the time for any pre-emptive strike. However, we also believe that in the current situation, all options must remain on the table, because the prospects for negotiating a diplomatic solution and the international community achieving a peaceful resolution will be weakened, not enhanced, if that is not the case.

A peaceful resolution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict does not seem any nearer, despite the recent tide of change elsewhere in the region. Israeli citizens still live in fear of rocket attacks from Gaza, while settlement building on Palestinian land continues in clear violation of international law. Both parties must be encouraged to resume negotiations, despite the latest setback. The international community, as well as a majority of Israelis and Palestinians, shares a common view of the principles on which a final agreement will be based: land swaps around the 1967 borders, Jerusalem as a shared capital and a fair settlement of refugees. There is no alternative to a negotiated peace. Perhaps the Minister will offer the Government’s view on how the present logjam might be broken.

Real change, however, has taken and is taking place in a number of countries in the region, including Tunisia, Libya and Egypt—albeit that we cannot be sure precisely where that change will lead. Egypt is the largest and strategically most significant country to have seen its Government overthrown recently, and Egypt’s stance is of considerable significance in making progress towards a solution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Civilian control of the military is one of the cornerstones of democracy, but there is continuing concern as to the extent to which this has been or will be achieved in Egypt.

With the Egyptian economy having shrunk and unemployment well into double figures, the economic risks confronting Egypt are real and dangerous, and democratic political reform becomes a much more difficult task when it occurs against a backdrop of economic decline. Perhaps the Minister could indicate what is being done within the international community, including financial organisations, to try to assist the Egyptian economy and the economies of other countries in the region that are seeking democratic reform against a background of economic problems. Can he also tell us what the Government’s approach is on this point?

In Libya, the political leaders have begun the process of drawing up a constitution, and it is vital that that process is recognised to be fair and transparent. The swearing in of the transitional Government represented a vital step in the process towards elections. The United Nations envoy has recently expressed confidence that Libya will overcome its current difficulties, which include the activities of local militias and attempts to divide the country and pursue democracy.

Democratic transformation will not unfold uniformly across countries as diverse and different as, for example, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria, but the consistency of the demands made by those desperate for change is testament to the enduring values for which they have been struggling. The Government, of course, must act in the period ahead in ways consistent with the very different scale of the risks in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa, while also providing whatever support and encouragement we can give, either directly or through the international community, to all those who desire and demand freedom, stability, security, a change for the better in their lives, and the democratic right to elect and determine who should govern them and their own country as a whole.