Question to the Home Office:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the report by the Migration Advisory Committee Review of the Seasonal Worker Visa, published in July, whether they intend to commit to the long-term continuation of the Seasonal Worker Scheme; and what consideration they have given to providing notice of five years or more of any withdrawal from that scheme to allow adjustments to be made by the agricultural and retail sectors.

Answered by Lord Hanson of Flint - Minister of State (Home Office)

The Government is carefully considering the Migration Advisory Committee’s review of the Seasonal Worker route and will announce a detailed response in due course.

Question to the Home Office:

To ask His Majesty's Government what plans they have to continue the Seasonal Worker Visa Scheme as part of a national food security strategy.

Answered by Lord Hanson of Flint - Minister of State (Home Office)

The Government is carefully considering the Migration Advisory Committee’s review of the Seasonal Worker route and will announce a detailed response in due course.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government when they expect real GDP per capita to return to its pre-pandemic peak; and what steps they are taking to support this growth.

Answered by Lord Livermore - Financial Secretary (HM Treasury)

Achieving sustained economic growth is the priority mission of this government. The government is focused on fixing the foundations of the UK’s economy.

Having launched the Growth Mission in July 2024, the government has already taken several steps including planning reforms to get Britain building, establishing the National Wealth Fund, announcing a Pensions Review, and launching Skills England. The government is under no illusion of the scale of the challenge, however, given the difficult economic inheritance.

HM Treasury does not prepare formal forecasts for the UK economy, which are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In its March forecast, the OBR expects that GDP per capita will surpass its pre-pandemic peak in 2025. Further details can be found in Table 1.5 of the OBR’s latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/.

Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the estimate in the Office for National Statistic's Labour market overview, UK: September 2024, that the UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was 21.9 per cent in May to July 2024; and what action they are taking to reduce economic inactivity of people of working age.

Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)

The Government has made clear that we consider the current rate of inactivity to be unacceptably high. With nearly 2.8 million people economically inactive due to long-term sickness and the last Parliament seeing the biggest increase in economic inactivity in almost forty years, our inactivity rate is above pre-pandemic levels at 21.9% for May-July 2024 and, unlike most major economies, our overall employment rate has failed to recover to its pre-pandemic level.

Government has set an ambition to get to an 80% employment rate, alongside raising living standards and tackling insecurity at work. The Government plans to tackle economic inactivity, support people into good work and help them to progress.

Proposed reforms include

• A new public employment and careers service to help get more people into work and to progress in work.
• Working with local areas to tackle economic inactivity including the development of joined-up work, health and skills plans for the economically inactive, with input from mayors, local councils, the NHS, businesses, colleges and the voluntary sector to address barriers and deliver employment opportunities for local people.
• A youth guarantee for all people aged 18 to 21 to ensure that they can access quality training opportunities, an apprenticeship or employment support.

Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask His Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to bring the level of youth unemployment to at or below the OECD average; and what assessment they have made of the impact of increases in employer National Insurance contributions on youth unemployment levels over the next five years.

Answered by Baroness Sherlock - Minister of State (Department for Work and Pensions)

The UK youth unemployment rate is currently 3.3%pts above the OECD average, but we have plans in place to tackle youth unemployment.

The ‘Get Britain Working’ White Paper sets out this government’s plans to deliver a new Youth Guarantee to ensure all 18–21-year-olds in England have access to education, training or help to find a job or apprenticeship.

Our aim for the Youth Guarantee is to help all young people earn or learn. We will work in partnership with organisations at the national and local level to offer exciting and engaging opportunities to young people. This could include apprenticeships, work experience, training courses or employability programmes. Work is underway on the design and delivery and starting from Spring 2025, eight trailblazers in mayoral authorities across England will test delivery of the Youth Guarantee.

Young people will continue to have access to the current core national offer and entitlements for employment support for people aged 16-24. This includes a mix of national and localised initiatives and provisions designed to improve skills, employability, and access to job opportunities. Key elements include: the DWP Youth Offer, Apprenticeships, Sector-Based Work Academy Programmes, the National Careers Service, Skills Bootcamps, and the Flexible Support Fund. These programmes collectively provide young people with pathways to employment, focusing on addressing local labour market needs and individual barriers to work.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s October 2024 forecast, which takes into account tax measures announced in the Budget, expects the 16+ unemployment rate will fall to 4.1% next year and remain low until 2029.

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the Bank of England Monthly Decision Maker Panel data for December 2024, which show that, of the businesses surveyed, 54 per cent expect to raise prices, 53 per cent expect lower employment, and 39 per cent expect to pay lower wages than they otherwise would have, following the increase in employer National Insurance contributions; and what action they plan to take as a result of that data.

Answered by Lord Livermore - Financial Secretary (HM Treasury)

Business surveys provide an indication of the range of ways businesses might respond to the increase in employer NICs, which varies business to business. Overall, once the impact of all budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. Further details are set out in the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which was published in October 2024.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer; the economic impacts of the policy; and the impacts on individuals, businesses, civil society organisations and an overview of the equality impacts.