Carbon Budget Order 2026

Lord Roborough Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd June 2026 Lords Chamber

[Lord Roborough (Con)]

My Lords, I will address carbon pricing in the UK, its unfortunate consequences for policy-making, and its devastating results for the public purse and the future of our economy. This confusion is embedded in these instruments, so I speak in support of my noble friend’s amendment. I refer the House to my registered interests as an owner and developer of wind and solar energy generation projects, and as an owner and developer of forests that target carbon sequestration under the Woodland Carbon Code, as well as growing timber that addresses the UK’s structural deficit in construction-grade timber. I am also a partially regenerative dairy and beef farmer.

Our carbon pricing in the UK is muddled. UK Woodland Carbon Code units trade at around £30 per tonne; the UK Emissions Trading Scheme is trading at around £55 to £60 per tonne; the Government’s internal valuation for carbon emissions, used in calculating the relative merits of policy and projects, ranges from a low case of £130 to a high of £390 for this year, and that rises to £568 in 2050. The average carbon emissions per head in the UK are nine tonnes per annum, and that includes scope 2 and scope 3—so offshore emissions. That can be offset for a total cost of £270 through woodland carbon units or £510 through the emissions trading scheme, yet the Government’s cost, used for policy, implies up to £3,510 per head. The first two figures sound reasonably affordable to me, the third does not sound at all affordable.

I believe we are expecting the Government to publish an update to this valuation framework alongside this Carbon Budget Order. I ask the Minister, first, when is this five-year review of valuation of greenhouse emissions likely to be published? Secondly, is he prepared to look again at the whole basis of how this valuation is done, in order to create an environment for better policy-making? The argument that this is based on marginal abatement cost is ludicrous. In effect, the Government are using the extortionate cost of some of the technologies they are throwing money at to justify that cost. In Microsoft Excel, this would cause a circular reference error.

Net zero can be achieved through pragmatic decision-making based on an orderly market where technologies are assessed based on the cost of carbon set by buyers and sellers. Unfortunately, this Government are chasing fantasies around green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and direct air capture, as well as some of the renewable projects coming forward, and these have been justified by this ludicrous carbon pricing. It is leading us to ruin, discredits any efforts to keep atmospheric carbon down, and needs to be reassessed. It takes no heed of affordability for the consumer, who feels cost of living pressures everywhere, and is already providing huge subsidies to renewable energy and grid improvements through electricity bills, and suffering the tax burden of funding fantastical technologies, when this money really should be spent on our defence. It pays no heed to industry, which is forced to compete with peers that can access considerably cheaper power almost anywhere in the world. As my noble friend has described, this will simply lead to our jobs and industry being taken offshore, and probably means that the best chance of meeting these targets is by deindustrialising our economy even further.

My noble friend’s amendment regrets the impact on meat and livestock production and consumption, which I fully support. Latest scientific evidence and dietary advice concludes that animal protein, fat and vitamins are critical to our health. Calculations underpinning livestock’s impact on greenhouse gases are highly biased and unfairly penalise livestock for the transitory impact of methane in the atmosphere. They fail to recognise that livestock farming, particularly in a regenerative system, is simply recirculating carbon, in the same way as supposedly sustainable aviation fuel, Drax and renewable heating installations. Why are animals being villainised while these are promoted and grant-aided? This also undermines the affordability of dealing with climate change, exposes the Government to ridicule and poses a threat to our health. I look forward to the Minister’s reply.

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[Lord Whitehead (Lab)]

Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, is with us this evening. At least I can say that the noble Lord is consistent. He did not sign it in the first place and I do not think he would sign it now if he had the opportunity.

That Climate Change Act, which requires us legally to carry out these carbon budget examinations, set up the Climate Change Committee to advise us on the science behind the proceedings and tell us what we need to be doing, not just now but in the future, so that we have time to make policy for what we will be doing to match what is required in those carbon budgets. We have that legal obligation, because we passed the Climate Change Act together in that year.

It has stood us in very good stead. It has directed what this country tries to do, without telling us what we do in detailed policy. Some of the discussions this evening have set up what the Government are apparently going to do and then said, “We don’t like it very much”. No, the Government are not going to go around shooting cows and rounding up livestock for slaughter. The Government will be doing what it is doing now and investing £5 billion over two years in farming. This is perhaps the largest investment in sustainable food production and nature recovery in this country’s history.

Alongside that, the Government are actively exploring ways to reduce livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions, including through scientific research on mitigation strategies and management, feed, such as the increasing adoption of methane-suppressing food products, and breeding. There are many alternative ways of making sure that agriculture and land use plays its part in climate change emission reductions without the straw man that some of the opponents of climate change action seem to have set up in this Chamber—that the Government are somehow going to chase livestock out of the country in order to meet climate change restrictions. To produce alternative theories, I am afraid you need alternative facts.

The impact assessment has, among other things, a fairly exact examination of the costs of doing nothing, as opposed to the costs of doing something. This has been a long-standing theme. The University of Cambridge, for example, estimates that climate damage will reduce global GDP by up to 24% under a high emissions scenario by 2100. There are pages of other information about the costs of doing nothing, as opposed to the cost of doing something, and I always advise noble Lords to go to impact assessments if they want to know the truth about what is happening on any piece of legislation.

My noble friend Lord Hunt underlined that the regret amendments that we have in front of us are big on things that are not liked very much and tiny to insignificant on what, if anything, to do about it. Indeed, one has a responsibility, if one does not like what is being done now, to say what should be done alternatively. Alternatively, if one does not like, say, the climate change legislation, stand up and say that, and say what else you will do instead, or, as some Members have said, just deny that the whole thing is an issue and have an alternative universe of facts to try to underpin that.

I am conscious that I will have to write to a number of noble Lords on specific issues, but I thought it necessary to put what we are doing tonight in the right context. What we are doing is making sure that our futures are secure in this world.

[Lord Roborough (Con)]

I asked two specific questions relating to these orders. One was about the timing of the update and the valuations for carbon, and the second was whether the Minister would reconsider the faulty basis on which I think they are calculated. If he does not have answers today, would he commit to write?

[Lord Whitehead (Lab)]

Yes, indeed. The noble Lord makes those points, which I have taken well on board. The question of carbon pricing, of course, is a long-standing issue as far as carbon valuation is concerned, but I certainly will write to him about the particular points he raises as soon as possible.