Coronavirus: UK Deaths

Debate between Lord Robathan and Baroness Merron

Monday 29th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Robathan]

To ask His Majesty’s Government what initial assessment they have made of the number of deaths in the United Kingdom from coronavirus compared to other countries, and of whether the policy of lockdowns in 2020 was effective.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Baroness Merron) (Lab)]

My Lords, estimates of excess mortality from the Office for National Statistics show that, between January 2020 and July 2022, the UK’s cumulative overall mortality rate was 3.1% higher than expected. Using this measure of excess mortality, the UK was ranked 15th highest out of 29 European nations examined by the ONS. Research funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research estimates that national lockdowns saved more than 470,000 lives in the UK in the first few months of the pandemic.

[Lord Robathan (Con)]

I welcome the noble Baroness to her position. She may not remember, but I did ask the same question of the last Government. I am sorry that the noble Lord, Lord Vallance, is not answering the question, because he has an encyclopaedic personal knowledge of this—and I would like to welcome him to his position as well. I will pick up the noble Baroness on what she has just said, because it appears that the Swedish model had a lower death rate than the UK model. We know the impact on the economy, on mental health and particularly on children’s education that the lockdowns had, and the important thing, as the noble Baroness will know, is to not make the same mistakes again. So could she please examine this more carefully and come forward with an initial assessment on whether lockdowns, on a cost-benefit analysis, were worth having?

[Baroness Merron (Lab)]

I thank the noble Lord for his kind welcome and I hear his disappointment that it is not my noble friend Lord Vallance—who will be extremely flattered—answering. On the matter of lockdowns, I start by paying tribute to the British public; it was they who rallied to ensure that lockdowns could save lives. Before Oral Questions, I met with the Chief Medical Officer to discuss the very point that the noble Lord has raised. I say to the House that, when looking at other countries, it is very important to consider the complexity of comparison; it is just not possible to draw direct comparisons. But what I can say is that we are of course waiting for the Covid inquiry, which will shine a light on a number of the matters that the noble Lord has raised.