Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf
Lord Luce Excerpts(10 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Luce (CB)
My Lords, this debate provides an opportunity to focus on the Government’s relationship with members of the Gulf Co-operation Council. I look forward to the contributions of noble Lords and to the Minister’s response. Much of the Middle East is in serious turmoil at a time when Britain’s role in the world has become more modest. It makes sense, therefore, to concentrate on areas and issues which best serve Britain’s interests. The stability and prosperity of the GCC states are a clear British interest, and I commend the Government for their positive approach to this region.
The Gulf is of major international economic importance. It is likely to remain so, even as international flows of oil and gas change with time. The GCC states possess 30% of the world’s crude oil reserves and 23% of natural gas reserves. Their sovereign wealth funds hold up to $1.5 trillion of assets. GCC investment in Britain was more than $2.25 billion in 2012. Our exports to these countries are more than £10 billion per annum and are increasing steadily. We have 166,000 British ex-patriots in the GCC working to strengthen our links in many areas. There are tens of thousands of students from the GCC studying in Britain.
In the wider Middle East, GCC states are now playing a major and influential role. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait are key backers of the new Egyptian regime. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have provided vital support to elements of the Syrian opposition. Oman’s dialogue with Iran has recently taken on new significance. Britain’s relationship with these six states remains unique. We have historic connections going back, in some cases, more than 200 years. When Britain finally withdrew from responsibilities in the Gulf in 1971, there were many who forecast a quick demise of the new Gulf states, and that Iran under the Shah would be the strong, stable nation in the Gulf. As we know, the out-of-touch Shah was overthrown in 1979, to be replaced by a theocracy. The rulers of the GCC have not only survived, but remained reliable allies safeguarding the flow of oil and recently providing vital staging facilities for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I first visited the Gulf in 1959. I still find it hard to grasp the scale of the transformation from traditional societies with just a few outward-looking trading ports to nation states with unimaginable wealth, modern cities and influence in the world. It is as though they had jumped like a grasshopper out of an historic Middle East into the modern world. In recent years, my only interest in the Gulf has been as patron of the Sir William Luce Trust at Durham University, where we have worked since 2005 with Chatham House and Ditchley Park to try to understand the pressures for change in the GCC and how those countries are dealing with it.
Earlier this year, I accompanied Richard Muir, the chairman of the trust, on a tour of Gulf countries. This visit, two years after the Arab spring, reinforced many of our conclusions since 2005. These monarchies and peoples are our historic friends; for the most part the rulers still command the confidence of those who live in their state. We must continue to give them our strong support. However, this should not be uncritical, provided we speak as friends to friends and with an informed understanding of the task and dilemmas these rulers face in bringing about change.
We need at the same time to acknowledge that each Gulf country is different. The events of spring 2011 sent a shockwave through the Gulf. Some have called it a “youthquake”, as 50% of GCC citizens are under 30. These events were a catalyst for these young people for the first time openly to question, criticise, challenge and aspire to play a role in their countries. Each Government had their own reaction. A combination of political, economic and, in some cases, repressive moves has for the time being preserved order, and these states remain basically stable. Saudi Arabia has injected $130 billion into its public sector and offered funds to help Bahrain and Oman take similar action. However, the underlying challenges for Governments are today greater than ever before. Resources of oil, gas and water are finite and being rapidly depleted, while subsidies drive up demand. Low-cost imported labour, mainly from Asia, is becoming controversial. At the same time, there is still high unemployment among the indigenous population, particularly the young, with a sharp contrast between wealth and poverty, job discrimination and some corruption.
Money on its own cannot satisfy aspirations, and Syria shows the path down which repression can ultimately lead. The GCC Governments all recognise that further political as well as economic change is an essential part of the way forward. As Lampedusa wrote,
“If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”.
Each of these states is seeking to evolve, each in its own way and at its own pace.
Kuwait faces a challenge as to how its Government and lively Parliament can reconcile their respective roles constructively. In Saudi Arabia, 30 women have been appointed to the Shura Council, and women will participate in the next municipal elections. Qatar might benefit from a little less foreign venture and more constitutional development, led by its new ruler. The UAE, in addition to constitutional development at state and federal level, faces the need to develop a fully independent judiciary and transparent mechanisms for handling human rights cases. Oman continues to evolve its two-chamber Parliament, which can now propose legislation and review audits. Oman has given its judiciary and national human rights commission independence and authority.
Bahrain is at a most critical stage and perhaps provides the real litmus test for peaceful evolution. That country has an historic tradition of tolerance between religions and sectarian groups, but faces a major challenge to remove discrimination against the Shia majority to enable all political parties in its Parliament to play a constructive role and, above all, to complete implementation of all the recommendations of the Bassiouni Independent Commission of Enquiry, so bravely set up by King Hamad. Its national dialogue between government, political parties and civic society must continue to be strongly encouraged by the British. I invite the Minister to comment on those developments.
The GCC states cannot be immune to the cross currents of the Middle East, ranging from turmoil and civil conflict in Egypt and Syria, historic Sunni-Shia tensions, the Persia-Arab rivalry, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the broad struggle between political Islam and theocracies and secular forces. Inevitably, all these events may strengthen the voices of those who are opposed to further change. People in the Gulf value stability and are aware that they are living in young states never previously at peace within stable borders and which have moved within a generation from tradition to modernity and from poverty to great wealth. They know, too, that they are an integral part of a region still full of raw, secular, sectarian and tribal tensions.
But things cannot and do not stand still. During my tour of the Gulf states in February, I was impressed by the quality of some of the key institutions that have already evolved—including elected and appointed assemblies—the recognition by some key Ministers, parliamentarians and officials of what needs to be done, and the frankness of many of them, including some in very senior positions, in private discussion about the enormous challenges they face and their need to face up to them.
As we have recently seen elsewhere in the region, change when it comes can be violent, and violent change does not guarantee a democratic outcome. I share the view that successful transformation requires a long haul. After all, we have experienced our constitutional development over 500 years and it is hard to disagree with those in the Gulf who advocate continuous dialogue as the only means to make progress, and that this must take into account at all stages the Arab experience of the tested Majlis or Shura system of consultation. Our interest is to support this approach along a path of relentless and constant constitutional evolution and to seek to assist wherever we can with ideas, encouragement and practical help. However, we should also recognise that our action will be far more effective if it is against a background of strong friendship built on mutual respect and confidence, and that the most valuable advice may be that given in private. An absolute key is to develop a personal rapport with the leadership in all these countries and to be constructive in our relationship. The Foreign Secretary has set a good lead on this and our Arab Partnership Fund is a good framework within which HMG can work positively with our friends. I look forward to hearing from the Minister how this important strategy is working.
Gibraltar
Lord Luce Excerpts(10 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Luce (CB)
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper, and I declare an interest as a former Governor of Gibraltar.
The Senior Minister of State, Department for Communities and Local Government & Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Warsi) (Con)
My Lords, we continue to uphold the sovereignty of British Gibraltar territorial waters through the Royal Navy’s response to unlawful incursions and our diplomatic protest to the Spanish Government. We are maintaining strong diplomatic pressure on the Spanish Government to de-escalate tensions and to remove unlawful additional checks at the border. The European Commission sent a monitoring mission to the border at our request on 25 September, and we await its conclusions.
Lord Luce
Does the Minister agree that as democratic partners in the European Union and NATO, the Spanish Government, rather than embarking on a policy of undemocratic Francoist type bullying of Gibraltarians, both at sea and on the border, would do well to follow the example of the previous Spanish Government, which embarked on constructive policies of joint economic collaboration between Spain and Gibraltar bringing advantages to the citizens of both Gibraltar and Spain in that region? To that end, will she say whether the Spanish Government have agreed to proposals to resume a dialogue and, if that is to take place on practical issues to do with Gibraltar, will the Gibraltarians be full participants in these discussions?
Baroness Warsi
I pay tribute to the work of the noble Lord in relation to Gibraltar, during his time at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and as Governor of Gibraltar. He is incredibly familiar with incidents that arise between Spain and Gibraltar. We are entirely clear that this matter should be resolved politically. I take the noble Lord’s point about both of us being members of the European Union and I completely take his point that this matter has to be resolved in accordance with the wishes of the Gibraltarians.
Syria and the Middle East
Lord Luce Excerpts(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Luce
My Lords, I cannot quite make up my mind whether it is an advantage or disadvantage to speak at this stage in the debate—I shall probably discover by the time I sit down—particularly after so many remarkable speeches. I am very glad to follow the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, who has a great feel for foreign policy, not least in the Middle East, and always has something distinctive to say on these matters.
It was 66 years ago when, aged 10, I first went to the Middle East. I landed on the Nile by flying boat and went down the river by steamer to my parents in Khartoum. I had always hoped, when I had the privilege of being sent here, to be able to use the title “Luce of Khartoum” but Gordon unfortunately beat me to it.
In those 66 years, we all know how the Middle East has been a theatre of continual conflict—the Arab-Israel wars, the western interventions in countries such as Iraq and the civil wars of many of those countries. Today, however, we face a highly toxic cocktail of very dangerous proportions. One might almost think, in terms of Syria, of a poisonous Molotov cocktail—a great cross-fertilisation of several developments, starting in 2011. The Arab spring-type uprising started the challenge to the Assad dictatorship and was followed by repression, civil war and challenge to the secular regime. This developed into, as we have heard so often in this debate, a sectarian, religious conflict, principally but not wholly between Sunni and Shia, exacerbating the Sunni-Shia tensions in the region as a whole. Take Bahrain, for example, where tensions were already very strong between the Shia and the Sunni; this conflict has exacerbated the tensions there.
Those who are historians will know better than me that, in the 16th and 17th centuries, the Ottoman Empire and the Iranian Safavid Empire, one Sunni and the other Shia, fought each other for a long time and it had an extremely debilitating effect on both those areas, just as religious wars in Europe had done the same; for example, the Roman Catholic and Protestant feuds in Northern Ireland and so on.
On top of that, we have exploitation by proxy support, as we have heard today, with Russia and Iran, supported by Hezbollah, in favour of Assad—here, I pose a question: have we rather underestimated the determination of Russia and Iran to give their backing to Assad?—and, by contrast, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supporting the official, and not just the official, Syrian opposition.
Thus, as we have heard again so often today, Syria, with more than 100,000 deaths, is awash with arms. Goodness, we do not need to talk about arms in the Middle East; it is flooded with arms. There is the danger of fragmentation of that country and exploitation by extremist offshoots of al-Qaeda, producing in turn a massive humanitarian crisis, with more than 7 million people in desperate need, following from that to the destabilising of the neighbouring regimes, particularly Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon and Turkey.
Then, on top of that, there are the ambitions of the Iranian theocracy, which is flexing its muscles, trying to establish itself as a big power in the region and to have more influence—dreaming, perhaps, of former great Persian empires—and with very deep mistrust of the United States and the United Kingdom, developing nuclear capability as a symbol of its virility and seen, quite understandably, by Israel as a serious threat. That is balanced, however, by the one positive sign, which has been spoken about today: the election of Rouhani as president. He is, of course, a solid supporter of the Supreme Leader but, we hope, a little more flexible. Encouragingly, he said the other day:
“I have a key, not an axe”.
We have to live in hope.
Then we add to that, in the Middle East as a whole, the important Arab nations such as Egypt, which is struggling to find its way towards some kind of democracy, with serious tensions between the secular political leaders and the Muslim Brotherhood and with the army sitting in the background. Meanwhile, Palestine-Israel simmers and stagnates. There is no will or leadership on either side to find a solution. It is becoming more and more potentially explosive, with Palestinians failing to unite and Israelis settling on more Palestinian land, making the two-state solution more and more difficult.
To add one more issue in the region, there is a rapidly changing influence of outside powers. Obama is now understandably reluctant to get involved in any more Middle Eastern quagmires. The European Union is divided. The United Kingdom wants to punch above its weight against its gradual loss of weight. In Russia, there is a Putin who is under threat, flexing his muscles both metaphorically and actually, wanting to demonstrate Russia’s power and to protect its interests in Syria and its energy interests in the Mediterranean. Finally, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, put across so strongly, there is China, becoming more and more dependent on Middle Eastern oil and, therefore, more and more an important power in the Middle East.
In those circumstances, what should we be doing? We must start by accepting that we can play a role, but that it is more modest and selective than it has been in the past. Like almost every other speaker, I am not convinced that sending arms to the official Syrian opposition would do anything other than help to escalate the conflict and the fighting. I believe that there is no military solution whatever to this Syrian problem. Therefore, we should concentrate on one thing which I believe that the Government are doing extremely well, which is humanitarian support on a large scale. Secondly, where we can, with our allies, we should shore up and stabilise the neighbouring countries, especially Jordan and Lebanon. Thirdly, like others, I agree that we should give strong support to a political negotiation leading to a transition and what we hope will be an achievable and realistic post-conflict political resolution, learning, if we can, the lessons of Iraq and using all our skills in diplomacy and our experience.
We should engage fully and strongly with our friends in the Gulf, whom we will need, and we should engage if we can with Iran. We cannot ignore Iran. It has an important role to play in the Middle East; it is better that it should be constructive. I hope that Iran will take part in Geneva. Therefore, we should use our soft power and skills as well as possible to engage with Iran, as the Prime Minister is doing with Russia, and much more fully with China to try to find a way forward.
Finally, I agree with my noble friend Lord Hannay: we should do what we can to support Mr Kerry, the Secretary of State, in his efforts in Palestine and Israel to move towards a two-state solution and find a more secure future for the Palestinians and the Israelis. That is becoming all the more important because of the crisis in Syria. I take the view that we must play our part, draw on all our experience in the Middle East but be realistic about our post-imperial role in the region.
Kenya: Kenyan Emergency
Lord Luce Excerpts(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
My Lords, I do not intend to answer this question with a view to reopening the debate about the rights and wrongs of that period. Nor do I feel that it is appropriate for me to comment on how the Kenyan Government should respond to this.
Lord Luce
My Lords, since the Government have decided to contribute to a memorial in Nairobi to the victims of torture during the Mau Mau emergency, would it not be best to put this whole historic tragedy behind us by contributing to a memorial to all those who suffered—Africans and Europeans alike—during that emergency?
Baroness Warsi
I know that the noble Lord comes at this with great experience. If I am correct, he was there during the emergency period. It is something that I can take back but at this moment the commitment that has been made has been for this particular memorial.
Bahrain
Lord Luce Excerpts(11 years, 5 months ago)
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Baroness Warsi
Certainly, we have these specific discussions regularly around freedom of religion. I spoke with the Foreign Minister when he was here this week specifically about that issue, and we had a lengthy conversation about the Shia-Sunni dynamic in Bahrain. We also spoke about historic coexistence between these two theologies within Islam. Indeed, we had a lengthy conversation about my own history when I explained to him that I was half-Sunni and half-Shia.
Lord Luce
While acknowledging the importance of the Question asked by the noble Lord, Lord Avebury, would the Minister give some credit to the Government of Bahrain for setting up last year a very distinguished international commission on human rights, which at the end of the year made over 170 recommendations, of which the Government have so far decided to implement 140? Should we not give some credit to the Government of Bahrain for that?
Baroness Warsi
The noble Lord makes an important point. Indeed, today is the anniversary of the publication of those first ambitions set out in the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry. He is right when he says that 143 of the 176 recommendations were accepted—and, indeed, a further 13 were partially accepted. Bahrain is trying to make progress on these matters, and we are supporting it in doing that.
Piracy
Lord Luce Excerpts(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Luce
My Lords, I hope that the House will agree that this is a relatively good time to focus our short debate on the progress that is being made on reducing piracy in the Indian Ocean and on helping to stabilise neighbouring states in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian peninsula. It would be valuable to hear from the Minister what our assessment is of the present position and the action that HMG are taking together with the international community. I welcome the fact that so many experienced Peers are participating in this debate, not least my former ministerial boss, the noble and learned Lord, Lord Howe.
There can be no doubt that British interests are at stake here. Something like 23,000 ships transit the Gulf of Aden each year, and nearly $1 trillion of trade to and from Europe alone travelled through the gulf last year. The total cost to British commercial interests is thought to be around $10 billion per annum. However, piracy arises from instability in Somalia, and wider regional instability is fuelled by illicit networks operating from Yemen shifting people, weapons and narcotics between Africa and the Arabian peninsula.
Moreover, the disastrous condition in recent years of both countries has provided a base for extremism, expressed through al-Shabaab in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula in Yemen. This in turn poses a threat to the international community, as well as to those countries. There is some evidence, for example, that a few British-born Muslims are radicalised by events in that region. We welcome the fact that there are well over 250,000 Somalis living in Britain and something like 70,000 Yemenis, thus giving us a direct link with the region.
There is a British and international interest in reducing piracy by helping to stabilise those two countries. The lessons from the Malacca Straits are that piracy can be more easily tackled if the littoral states are relatively stable. We are helped by an excellent updated report on Indian Ocean piracy by the House of Lords European Union Committee, published on 21 August. From this we learn of the substantial reduction of piracy in the past year. In June this year, eight pirated vessels and 215 hostages were held, compared to 23 vessels and 501 hostages in June 2011.
Could the Minister indicate what lessons can we learn from this? Is the reduction caused by the fact that many ships are now allowed armed guards and that pirate shore bases have been attacked? Is it also the case that drones have been used in the Indian Ocean against pirate ships? I hope that the Minister will also want to say something about the co-ordinated progress being made with neighbouring countries such as Seychelles, Mauritius and Kenya in terms of co-operation over the trials, sentencing and imprisonment of pirates and how the international community is countering the money-laundering of the proceeds from the ransoms.
In general, we should note the value of international military co-operation, with a strong EU/NATO contribution and the participation of ships from China, India and Russia, for example. It is good that the United Kingdom provides leadership of Operation Atalanta but regrettable that we do not provide a patrol ship more regularly.
I turn now to the Horn of Africa. I first explored parts of Somaliland by camel in 1959 and worked among nomadic Somalis in northern Kenya when I became the last British district officer there in 1961. The Somalis are friendly, proud and independent-minded people, dominated by clans and pretty suspicious of foreigners. They are fiercely individualistic and resist central control. Since the 1960s they have been through the Cold War under the tough dictator Siad Barre, and for the past 20 years the country has suffered from conflict and fragmentation, thus providing material for al-Shabaab to exploit. The future of Somalis must be in the hands of Somalis, but HMG are to be congratulated on taking a lead by convening an international conference on the Horn of Africa in London this year, with a second one in Istanbul this summer. How is this being followed up now?
We can at least now welcome the fact that the international African Union force, AMISOM, with the involvement of forces from Burundi, Djibouti, Uganda and Kenya, has driven al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu and Kismayo. Against that background, the disastrous transitional Government have come to an end, and it is most welcome that President Mohamoud, who is a committed Somalian academic and activist, has been elected as president. The elected constituent assembly is tasked to develop a constitution for Somalia.
However, experts will stress that it is vital to acknowledge that, while Somalia is generally made up of a single ethnic group, the clan system means that they tend to resist strong control from central government. This has led to fragmentation, and each region is different. For example, Somaliland is now relatively stable and has an elected parliament and president, with municipal elections to follow shortly. The harsh experience of the past 40 years means that the northern Somalilanders do not want complete reintegration with the rest of Somalia. It must therefore be up to the Somaliland leaders to negotiate their future relationship with Somalia as their new constitution is being prepared. Many want independence and others some kind of confederal arrangement. The ultimate political settlement has to suit the Somali character.
Knowing the history of Somalia, I think it would be risky to be too optimistic, but the international community must continue to capitalise on recent developments and do everything to encourage its new president to work in partnership with the clans, business and civic society. We for our part must provide our development assistance only where it will be used productively, not wasted through corruption, as happened with the recent transitional Government. Are we, for example, encouraging alternative livelihoods to piracy?
I turn briefly to Yemen, where there is a close link with the Horn as many Somalis have emigrated to that country, and some to Saudi Arabia. Indeed, it is worth highlighting the fact that the camel, sheep and cattle trade across the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia is the biggest cross-border livestock trade in the world, with the potential for constructive wealth creation as opposed to piracy and conflict. The country is undergoing a fragile but significant two-year political transition process, following a popular “Arab Spring” uprising that dislodged the long-serving President Saleh from power. The international community is united in its support for the transition process but the challenges ahead are immense—namely, addressing the grievances of separatists in the south and “Houthi” rebels in the north, as well as tackling extremism. Poverty is acute, with 46% living on only $2 a day. A large number suffer from severe food shortages. Oil and water supplies are diminishing.
Chatham House should be congratulated on producing some excellent analyses and assessments of that strife-torn country. It warns of how the multimillion-dollar shadow business networks spanning the Gulf of Aden hinder counterterrorism and counterpiracy strategies. The national dialogue is due to begin in November under the stewardship of Yemen’s new caretaker president. President Hadi needs to embrace all Yemenis in these discussions, to examine ways in which power can be diffused and to encourage the development of local communities. He is right to give priority to security and the defeat of al-Qaeda, but he will not be likely to carry the people with him unless he encourages economic and social development at the same time. I am glad that the United Kingdom is co-chairing, with Saudi Arabia, the Friends of Yemen international group to encourage development pledges and economic investment. Yemeni civil society organisations, however, must be allowed to play an oversight role in all this.
I hope that the Minister will give her assessment of the situation in Yemen under President Hadi. Above all, while I strongly support Britain playing its part internationally, it is the people of those countries who must be given the framework and encouragement to build their own future. It is the African Union and the Gulf countries which must play a leading and prominent role in supporting them. For our part, we must also encourage some of the Somali and Yemeni diaspora in the United Kingdom to contribute not only their very substantial remittances but also their skills to the rebuilding of their countries of origin. I commend the excellent work of the Royal African Society in facilitating contact and dialogue with the diaspora.
There is a better alternative for the region than destructive piracy, civil conflict and terrorism. We must keep on encouraging it.
Gibraltar
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Lord Howell of Guildford
The noble Lord is quite right about the increase in the number of these incursions. The problem about referring the issue to the International Court of Justice is that of course it requires all involved parties to agree to it, which does not appear to be in prospect. We believe that the right way forward is the one we are adopting, which is that the response should be measured, we should continue to press the Spanish Government very carefully and there is no point raising the temperature or tension in these matters, as they can be resolved by discussion. We would like of course to go back to the trilateral talks based on the Cordoba agreement, if we could. They were progressing, but that route, too, seems blocked. The way forward is, as I have described, to insist that these are unlawful maritime incursions and should not be accepted. We raise them in the strongest possible terms with the Spanish Government at every opportunity.
Lord Luce
My Lords, is the Minister aware that some 12 years ago, when I was governor of Gibraltar, we faced similar problems, and that there are lessons to be learnt from all this? In welcoming the setting up of the working party by the Government of Gibraltar to work with Spanish fisherman and environmental experts to try to find a way forward, will the Minister nevertheless assure the House that the British Government are providing whatever naval presence is needed to uphold sovereignty?
Lord Howell of Guildford
Yes, I can give that assurance, and there have been no complaints from the Gibraltar Government about the lack of adequate resources. There is the Gibraltar squadron, which has two patrol craft, some rigid-framed inflatable boats and crews. The responses they work out can be preceded by radio warnings, but they are effective and will continue, so I can give that assurance.
Middle East
Lord Luce Excerpts(12 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Luce
My Lords, I am delighted to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, and her formidable tour d’horizon based on her tremendous knowledge and experience of the Middle East. I will start by making a few general reflections before coming to one or two specific points.
I agree with the Minister that the Arab world has started down a road that will be long and hard. It is exciting, but it is also very dangerous, and the early euphoria of so many people, with which we all sympathised, has now led to greater realism some 13 or 14 months later. Each country is very different. Arab civilisation was perhaps at its greatest in its first 500 years. Arabs today, particularly young ones, are yearning for more freedom, more knowledge and more education, and the women yearn to have a greater say in the affairs of their country.
The dramatic changes of the past few months have brought about economic disruption, which is inevitable, and this raises the question that the Minister referred to: the challenge for each of these countries to manage growing expectations. We think of the experience of South Africa, the expectations raised when Mandela became the first black president and the very great problems that it is going to have to grapple with in coming years. Then there are the richer Arab countries with oil that are throwing money at supporting Arabs on benefits and investing in infrastructure, the public sector and so on. That is fine up to a point, but it is unlikely in the long term to answer the aspirations of younger people.
All this is against the background of increasing fundamentalism, strains between Sunni and Shia—just as we had strains between Roman Catholics and Protestants—the historic strains between the Arabs and the Persians and the growing intolerance that arises from that. We have already had a debate in this House about the treatment of the Christians, who are an integral part of the Middle East. It is interesting to observe that the three Abrahamic faiths have managed historically from time to time to live peacefully together. Is it not about time that they renewed their common bonds rather than divided?
Then there is the reference by all of us to democracy. It has taken us centuries to evolve the system we have today, and each of those countries, with different degrees of sophistication, will need to develop the rule of law and a free press to create the right conditions. Some argue that there should be no elections until that happens. I think that is wrong. I think elections can help to point countries in the right direction. Certainly, we have seen that in Egypt and Tunisia and more recently in Kuwait.
From all this has emerged the political parties—the Minister referred to this—particularly the Islamic parties coming into parliaments in Egypt, Tunisia and Kuwait, which brings out the question of the relationship between religion and politics, with which we have grappled in Europe over time. We still have an established church here. We have had Christian democratic parties in Europe. They will have to grapple with these problems too, hopefully taking Turkey as much as possible as a model to follow.
All these countries are grappling with systems of accountability and the rule of law, and each one is different. Egypt has to decide on the relationship between political parties and the military. Tunisia has stronger middle classes, women play a prominent role, and it has a civic society. Libya has had 42 years of dictatorship and now has been given a chance. Syria, of course, is a disaster, but one positive point emerging from this is that Hamas appears to be turning away from Syria and Iran towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
I should like to say a word about the Gulf monarchies, many of which could evolve into constitutional monarchies if they handle things in the right way. Speaking as someone who has been to Bahrain since the 1950s, the spring of last year was a great disappointment to me. The events were extremely bad and damaging, but at the same time, when something positive happens, it is very important that in this country, in the media and in Parliament, we acknowledge and encourage it. To my mind, it was remarkable that the king decided to appoint an international commission and allow it to make recommendations, all of which he has committed to fulfil. I wonder how many other countries would do that. Would we be prepared to have an international commission and implement all its recommendations? It is important that we give encouragement where encouragement is due; otherwise our influence in those areas will erode.
It is a polarised society with a Shia majority and a Sunni Government. It is vital for the Bahraini Government to demonstrate that they are treating the Shia and the Sunnis as equal under the law. Here, the position of Saudi Arabia is critical, as is our relationship with Saudi Arabia. Although King Abdullah is trying to introduce some reforms in this country, we acknowledge that there is a Shia community on the Bahrain borders. If Saudi Arabia tries to restrain the Bahraini Government from reforming, all I can say is that it could be totally and utterly counterproductive for Saudi Arabia, let alone the other Gulf countries. I hope that the British Government and other friends of Saudi Arabia are having an intense dialogue with it about that.
I end on the Indian Ocean and the Horn of Africa, interlinked with the Middle East. Some 25 per cent of world trade passes through the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, where it is threatened by piracy and terrorism. The Malacca Strait’s experience of piracy shows that it is essential to stabilise the littoral states. I congratulate the British Government on taking the lead and convening an international conference to try to build stability in that area, particularly in the Horn, and to work with the international community in getting the regions of the Horn and the clans to co-operate together by building up the peacekeeping forces and working to defeat piracy through criminalising the proceeds of ransom money.
A key to this is Somaliland, which is becoming increasingly stable and successful. The British Government are rightly giving support to enhancing security, and strengthening health and education services, the private sector and so on. But the Somalis are a very proud people. I have worked with them. They are an independent-minded people who are ruthlessly suppressed by Siad Barre, the President until 1991. It is crucial that we build on the success of Somaliland and give it every encouragement. I hope that it will be encouraged to negotiate with the newly formed and emerging Government in Mogadishu so that it can decide what kind of relationship it will have with them in the future.
I have run out of time and I hope that others will deal with the very difficult problems of Palestine and Iran.
Iran
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Lord Howell of Guildford
This is an idea, an aim and an ambition that the Government fully share. The idea of a WMD or nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East is one to which we certainly subscribe, and this must be a longer-term aim. How we get from here to there is, of course, the problem. Prince Turki al-Faisal is an extremely wise and perceptive commentator and certainly I read very closely everything he had to say on the matter. That would be the ideal. How we would get from here to there would certainly include how we deal with the situation not only in Iran but also in Israel.
Lord Luce
My Lords, I fully support these robust sanctions. Will the Minister not agree that there seems to be an ineluctable slide towards conflict, which could erupt from an incident of any kind? Iran is a very important country with a remarkable history. Is there not a very strong case for telling the Iranians that we should resume negotiations not only on nuclear issues but on much broader matters of mutual concern in the region, and on bilateral relations?
Lord Howell of Guildford
This kind of approach would be very good, if we could get Iran to recognise that it must conform to the IAEA requirements and if we could have some trust and reassurance that it is not moving surreptitiously to the full weaponisation of its nuclear programme. If that assurance was there and if Iran was prepared to talk, we could certainly develop closer relations with what, after all, is a very great country that deserves respect—although it forfeits it by some of its actions—for its history and prominence in the region, and we could move in that direction. However, to get Iran even to come to the table on that basis has so far proved impossible.
Iran
Lord Luce Excerpts(12 years, 5 months ago)
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The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)
My Lords, this report from the International Atomic Energy Agency clearly indicates that Iran has worked on developing nuclear weapons and that some of this work is continuing. We support the production of this report by the agency and call on Iran to take the necessary steps to assure the international community that it is not pursuing a military nuclear programme. We will be pressing for strong action when the agency’s board of governors meets later this week.
Lord Luce
My Lords, since, as the Minister indicated, there is growingly credible evidence that Iran is developing a capability to introduce and develop nuclear devices, and against the background of a dangerously volatile region in the Middle East, would the Minister agree that we should work extremely hard to persuade China, Russia, Israel, the Arab nations—all of us, in all our interest—to work in a concerted fashion to introduce tougher international sanctions that hurt Iran, but keeping literally as a last resort the possibility of military measures?
Lord Howell of Guildford
Yes, I would certainly agree. We are all—and “all” means the entire planet—threatened by nuclear proliferation and the flouting of the proliferation regime which Iran has constantly demonstrated. The noble Lord is absolutely right that although we have an unprecedented degree of sanctions, and are thinking of more sanctions and more targeted sanctions, as long as China tends to be undermining these—and, to some extent, Russia as well—those sanctions are obviously weakened in their effect. So, he is right that we all have to work together to halt a threat that is really to the entire pattern of humanity.