Armed Forces: Capability

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 12th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater (Con)]

My Lords, I think I can say to my noble friend Lord Younger that no Member of this House taking part in this debate is unaware of the restriction he has just put on it. They deeply regret it as well. It is very disappointing that the House has not had an opportunity for more time on this debate on such an important issue very commendably launched by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson. We say this House should draw on its wisdom and experience. I see in the Chamber at present four former Defence Secretaries and three former Chiefs of the Defence Staff, all of whom—expect for the noble Lord, Lord Robertson—will be limited to four minutes for their contributions. I have probably lost a minute already by this intervention.

I broadly support a lot of what the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, has said. The House of Commons Defence Committee in its report said:

“The world today is at its most dangerous and unstable since the end of the Cold War”.

I recognise that the Government face severely limited resources and an extremely difficult situation, inheriting what I think is a pretty unbalanced procurement programme. As a result, we have some impressive capabilities coming forward and, as long as nobody attacks us before 2025 or 2030, we will be in good shape to meet them. I do not want to be too cynical about this, but there is a real imbalance in the resources and the capabilities we have at present.

Julian Lewis, the chairman of the Defence Committee, said that the last time we faced a combination of a threatening Russia and a growing terrorist threat was in the 1980s. I notice the proportion of GDP we spent on defence was about 5% then. While we pat ourselves on the back and say we must stick to 2% and make sure we do not go below it, it is important to draw that illustration. I was much criticised when I conducted “Options for Change” for daring to reduce our Armed Forces to 350,000 men in uniform. As I look at the 144,000 that are now indicated as our present strength, you will understand that I have great concerns.

I also have great concerns about the present programme. The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, already mentioned the problems of the Brexit exit—the effect on the currency and what that might mean on the cost of £12 billion of overseas procurement. I also look, as all Defence Secretaries have, at “efficiency savings” and wonder how they are actually always going to be achieved.

President Putin’s reassertion of Russian interests in many parts of the world and what seems to be a pretty dangerous undercover media operation at the moment, which may be seeking to destabilise some of the Russian minorities in the Baltic countries, illustrate a major problem there. Some noble Lords may have heard a Polish Minister on the “Today” programme this morning welcoming the 10,000 American troops who have just moved into Poland. On their very border there are 100,000 Russian troops exercising in a fairly provocative manner at present.

I want to make a few final points. I hope sincerely that President Putin and his colleagues realise how easily accidents can happen with mobilisations and provocations and how easily conflict can start. We do not have to have the memories of the First World War and our memories of the Second World War where war started by accident involving the wrong people at the wrong time that was not meant to happen. I take that factor very seriously.

I have two further points. The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, mentioned what has added to the Russian reassertion of its interests: the problems of ISIS and the total destabilisation of the Middle East. Added to that now we have Brexit and the new President Trump. On Brexit, I hope that there is no question that the sensible co-operative arrangements that currently exist, such as on anti-piracy off the coast of Somalia, will continue. It is in our national interest and in the interests of our European friends and partners because they need some of our capabilities. I hope those undertakings and operations will go ahead, Brexit or not, without interruption and without too much legal argument about whether they should now be permitted.

The key point I want to make, which was well made by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is that the key to our defence is NATO. While we were concerned about certain comments from President-elect Trump, I am encouraged by the further remarks he has made in his conversations with our Prime Minister. I also hope that the appointment of General Mattis may reinforce support for NATO. That is the core of our defence and, if I have one thing to say today in the lavish time allotted to me by the noble Viscount, Lord Younger, it is that we must ensure that, through all these instabilities, the importance of NATO and support for it are fully maintained at the present dangerous time.