Infrastructure Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding(10 years, 1 month ago)
Lords ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Lord Judd (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness for introducing the amendment. I do not need to tell the House that I am a passionate defender of the areas of outstanding natural beauty and the national parks. We have to be vigilant all the time on that. There is no room for complacency because the pressures against what we believe in are always there and we have to beware of erosion. The point she has made about a wider application of those principles is very important.
As I listened to the previous debate, I felt my blood pressure rising because it is a travesty to suggest that environmentalists are against economic progress. Of course we are in favour of economic progress. We want to see it effective and driving as hard as it can. But we are equally determined, as custodians and trustees of all that we have inherited in terms of the environment, scenic beauty, biodiversity and the rest, to keep those issues as equally important. Therefore, it is a matter of rational, strategic decision-making about how you have clear areas for driving ahead, so that people are not worried about constraints of one kind or another but know that they have got green lights going all the way, and areas where we are saying, “Yes, but there are other considerations to be taken into account and if we want a Britain worth living in and if we want our children and grandchildren to inherit a country worth living in, these other issues are crucial”.
When I listened to the noble Lord, Lord Deben, in the previous debate, my feeling was that, yes, I do believe that the market has a key part to play in our economic affairs, of course it has. I happen to believe, rather traditionally—and I am not ashamed of that—in a mixed economy. But having said that, I believe in a managed market and I will take the opportunity to say why. The trouble is that the market operates from a short-term time perspective and these other issues of the environment, scenic beauty and the inheritance by our children of a country worth living in do not have the same immediacy in play in the market as other factors of a more essential economic character. Therefore, one must make sure that those points are on the table, being seen to be taken seriously and being given the muscle to be taken seriously. From that standpoint, I am very glad indeed that the noble Baroness has raised the point that what we want to apply to parks and areas of outstanding natural beauty should not be exclusively limited to them.
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, neither the noble Baroness who has moved this amendment nor the noble Lord, Lord Judd, appears to have recognised that what we are talking about in Clause 32 is developing land 300 metres below the surface. Looking at the list of the various sites in the noble Baroness’s amendment, I cannot of think of one of them which could remotely be affected by horizontal drilling 300 metres below the surface. I am surprised that neither the noble Baroness nor the noble Lord seems to have acknowledged this. We are not talking about actually drilling down in a special area of conservation or a site of special scientific interest which implies development on the surface. We are talking here about horizontal drilling 300 metres below the surface and I just cannot understand how either the noble Baroness or the noble Lord can think that this could affect these important sites. Perhaps I have missed something.
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, when I saw the noble Lord’s amendment, my immediate reaction was to say, as he has done, “Look at what’s happened in other industries, notably the nuclear industry, and then look at what has been happening recently in relation to offshore oil and the measures that are now being taken there”. That led me to approach the trade association that covers the fracking industry, which was extremely helpful. My noble friend’s department has produced a very long paper of financial guidance on the whole question of petroleum licensing. At this hour of the night, when there is further business to come, I will not go into that in great detail, but the fact is that, having read that and the paper that has been produced by the trade association, UKOOG, I am satisfied that the difficulties that the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, has raised are in fact being addressed very positively. It is not only the question of whether the company that will get a licence will have the resources to carry out the work and continue to operate any shale gas well that it constructs. The papers address very specifically the questions that the noble Lord has made most of—the decommissioning of plant and financial liability if things go wrong. The existing regime provides for the remediation of environmental damage and contaminated land, and that includes water. If we take all the regulations together, if a company causes damage, harm or pollution to the environment, it can be required under the regimes in force to remediate the effects and prevent further damage, which is the same approach as applies to other industries.
Furthermore, the Government appear to have very clear powers: they can require financial evidence that there are resources available to pay for that. UKOOG has relieved my anxieties in that regard. Unlike the earlier industries to which the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, referred, the approach to this industry, which is still at a very early stage of its development, as he rightly said, has been extremely responsible. I shall be very interested to hear from my noble friend what those measures are. I am satisfied, but I will listen to my noble friend’s reply.
Lord Judd
My Lords, I have been glad to put my name to this amendment, which is very wise and prudent. It has been suggested in recent years that the interpretation of welfare capitalism has changed. The original concept was that capitalism had a social responsibility that it should discharge for the well-being of society as a whole. It seems that quite a lot of people have come to believe that perhaps welfare capitalism is about ensuring that while wealth generation and profit is privatised, risk is nationalised and is the responsibility of the taxpayer. The point in the amendment that is particularly important in this context is what happens in the case of insolvency, when all the best predictions can be blown away in the wind in the chaos that follows.
If a scheme is put forward and is being properly costed, the cost of dealing with potential damage, closure or the consequences of that is an essential element in the calculations. We are concentrating today on this new and exciting aspect of shale development but we are beginning to see infrastructure across the country in connection with power generation and its distribution that is no longer required. We need to be very careful that we are ensuring that any adverse results of that are not left just for the taxpayer to settle, but that they are the responsibility of the people who, while they are operating, are receiving the profits that come from that.
Infrastructure Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding(10 years, 1 month ago)
Lords ChamberRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Lord Judd (Lab)
My Lords, the right reverend Prelate referred to the importance attached to this issue and the strength of feeling within the church. That is significant. What was so impressive the last time this issue was being discussed, while the church played a critical part in the deliberations, was not only the size of the response to the Government’s proposal but the spontaneity and strength across the community as a whole. This was something about which people cared passionately in our society. It is hardly surprising that, in a country that is so increasingly pressurised in material terms, people take very seriously the balance that is needed for creativity, thought, reflection, and spiritual and physical regeneration.
My point is quite simple. My noble friend has said that the Minister has given assurances and that she respects him. I may also respect the Minister—and I do. However, I never understand this point. The Minister and his Government will not be there for ever. If the assurances on something which is crucial, and on which the Minister feels able to give assurances, mount, why on earth should we not put it in the Bill so that it is there as the clear expression of Parliament for future Governments as well as the present one?
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, I will be brief because I sense that the House wants to reach a decision. In my former constituency of Wanstead and Woodford was quite a large part of Epping Forest. I entirely share the views that have been expressed around the House, by the right reverend Prelate and others, about the extent to which this forms an enormously valuable part of people’s lives and, indeed, is part of their being.
When Winston Churchill fell ill, went into hospital and lost his job—of course, he had a job and therefore had to give up his seat—he ended that chapter of his biography:
“And so I found myself without an office, without a seat … and without an appendix. I came to rest amid the cool glades of Epping Forest”.
Of course, he became the Member for Epping; I inherited part of that constituency.
I listened to the noble Baroness with great interest because I, too, had read the Statement made by my noble friend and published in Hansard on 4 November, and I took comfort from it. However, I have to say to my noble friend that this is what worries me: a Statement, however formally issued, is not the same as an Act of Parliament. The example quoted by the noble Baroness about the particular part of the Forest of Dean, which I had not heard before, has raised doubts in my mind. Whether this or another amendment is necessary to place the intention of the Statement firmly on the statute book, it seems to me that this amendment has a good deal to say for it. I shall listen to my noble friend’s response to this debate with considerable interest.
Infrastructure Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding(10 years, 5 months ago)
Grand CommitteeRead Full debate Read Hansard Text Read Debate Ministerial Extracts
Lord Jenkin of Roding
It sounds a very good name. However, might there not be some confusion with another body with the same initials—the TUC?
Lord Judd (Lab)
My Lords, I think that this amendment deserves full-hearted support. What has raised a great deal of concern is that roads should become the exclusive prerogative of drivers and passengers. Of course, they are serving the wider community, or could serve the wider community. If we are taking the opportunity for more strategic thinking about the future in transport, it seems very unfortunate inadvertently to work against that objective by limiting imagination in titles like this. Amending the title in the way suggested would begin to open up the responsibility of those who are administering roads and those who are driving on roads—passengers who are using or riding in cars—to think of the wider community. From that standpoint, I am very glad that my noble friend has moved the amendment.
Lord Judd
My Lords, if this Committee is doing nothing else, it is giving us a wonderful opportunity to hear a series of very real, illustrative and important anecdotes from the noble Lord about what actually happens and what happened in his direct experience. I find that valuable in our deliberations. However, I am a bit puzzled as to why he thinks that he and I are on different sides of the fence; we are not. Of course the monitor’s job is not to make decisions in this field. A monitor’s job is to ensure that the procedures have been properly followed. All that I am arguing is that the monitor should therefore have a responsibility in the Bill to ensure that the consultations have been as wide as they should have been.
The noble Lord gave a beautiful example of how, by using good sense, imagination and contacts, he was able to persuade the relevant Ministers to come to see the situation and why his constituents felt so strongly. Unless I misheard him, he went on to say that the Ministers agreed that that particular section of road should be put underground. All I want is a situation in which the monitor has a responsibility to ensure that that kind of consultation has taken place and that it is not just up to the personal relationships and contacts of certain Members of Parliament and certain Ministers.
Lord Jenkin of Roding
I do not want to prolong this, but is that not the function of the planning system rather than of a body that is monitoring the strategic highways company and the railways? There is a separate planning system, which is going through Parliament at the moment with regards to HS2 and which has nothing whatever to do with the Office of Rail Regulation. It is a planning system and I think that these two things should be kept entirely separate.
Energy Bill
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, the noble Lord’s amendments go too far. We are talking about only five non-executive members who are going to be appointed by the Secretary of State. One must have regard to the main purpose of non-executive directors of a board, which is, broadly, to hold the executive to account. I have been a chairman of a board, although only part-time, in a totally different environment, and found the non-executive members of that board extremely useful. They assisted me in holding the executive members of the board to account—not because of their expertise in a particular area in which an executive director would be operating, but because they had wider experience and could look at the activity of the executive in a wider context.
That is obvious in the provision in the Bill for at least one non-executive member to have responsibility for the security aspects of the ONR’s job. I do not know whether this is the Government’s intention but it seems to me that what is wanted is not somebody who is expert in nuclear security, but who has wider experience of the whole of the national security position and can bring that background knowledge and perspective to the particular issues that arise in the nuclear field.
If that is right, it is entirely understandable that the Government should want to see that in the schedule. On the question of safety, however, I do not understand what, exactly, a non-executive member’s role would be. This is essentially a management matter. A non-executive director would want to be sure that the right procedures were being followed, particularly when it is a question of appointing someone who will have some executive responsibility in this. You want somebody with the experience of being able to do it, but to have a specific safety non-executive person would be very difficult. I am not sure where it leaves the professional management. Is it constantly being second-guessed? That is not what you want from a non-executive board. It should not second-guess the management but satisfy itself that the management is approaching the problem in the right way and has made sensible decisions.
To some extent, that is equally true of labour, staff relations and so forth. I would not expect a non-executive director who had come straight from a human resources job to say, “I’m going to tell the human resources director exactly how to do his job”. That is not the way in which non-executive members of the board should be expected to operate.
The amendments mistake the purpose of having non-executive directors. The Bill has the right approach because having someone with a wider experience of national security could be extremely useful, and nuclear security could be looked at in that context. However, I would not want to take it further and I would be very much opposed to the amendments proposed by the noble Lord.
Lord Judd
My Lords, with great respect, I do not follow the arguments of the noble Lord, Lord Jenkin. We are not talking about a chocolate factory or even a motorcar manufacturer: we are talking about highly sophisticated, advanced, cutting-edge science. It has the potential to adversely affect staff and the wider public acutely. It is not either/or; it is a matter of having people with wider experience. The noble Lord is right: that is the purpose of a non-executive director. However, there must be people on the board who know what they are talking about, if they talk about it, when we come to the specific issues of this special, advanced and potentially very dangerous new form of energy generation.
This is not, incidentally, just limited to the nuclear sphere. I remember very vividly many hours toiling home to the north-west finding myself isolated on Preston station in the small hours. Railtrack had built up a great record of property development and all the rest, but it was suddenly realised after Hatfield that it had neglected the very special knowledge about how to run the railways and what that is about. It is not just any industry: it is about having the knowledge and background to ask whether management is taking this or that into account. It is not an either/or.
In the case of the railways, with that awful Hatfield incident, we had reached a stage where virtually nobody knew where the danger spots were on the track across the country. If we take those experiences seriously, it is a matter of getting the right combination of knowledge and expertise. I realise that when you use the word “expertise” you are beginning to go down a questionable road, but there has to be enough real knowledge of the special tasks and hazards, together with the wider experience to which the noble Lord rightly referred.
Growth and Infrastructure Bill
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding
Lord Judd
My Lords, one might ask why I am moving the amendment in the light of the good exchanges we have been having in our deliberations so far. I go back to the basic issue: why is this clause in the Bill at all? If we have had to have this tremendous amount of discussion, this avalanche of reassurances from the Minister, meetings at which reassurances have been given and all the rest of it, why have the clause in the Bill?
That means that it is necessary to look at the motivation for the clause. I suggest that the motivation is not what we have been talking about. It is not about preserving the unique role and position of the parks and areas of outstanding natural beauty. There is a feeling that this could become an obstacle to other priorities in government administration and that, therefore, we need to look again at this absolute commitment and qualify it, whatever reassurances are given.
Like my noble friend, I read with great interest the note on the meeting with the English National Park Authorities Association. Again, it was far from clear to me after reading that why the clause was being proposed unless it was for the reason that I have put to the House. I therefore suggest that, at this stage, we need to hear from the Minister why it is essential to have it in the Bill, with all the qualifications that have now been made. I am sure that, as a reasonable person, the Minister will agree with me that those qualifications are all based on her word. They are not reinforced by the legislation. They are her interpretation, her good will, her undertakings and her reassurances, with a bevy of officials around her to add dignity and, I am sure, a good deal of intellectual input to the occasion.
The clause and its purposes, and why it is there in opposition to the priority we have all had in the past, are the real issue. I seek from the Minister some kind of convincing argument as to why the clause is necessary. I beg to move.
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, I have not tried to get into the discussion on Report so far. I made my view clear in Committee that this clause was a good thing. I, too, warmly commend my noble friend on the Front Bench for the amount of care and trouble that she has taken. I particularly valued the meeting that she arranged with the representatives of BT. I found it extremely informative, both as to their attitude to all this and as to some of the technology, of which I confess I was not wholly aware. For instance, one does not need a continuous line to take superfast broadband across the country. If you have the right equipment in a cabinet, you can, I think, go up to a kilometre by wireless transmission. That may well be a way in which one can protect a particularly sensitive area from the need for lines.
The other thing that was made absolutely clear, and which we have heard all along from my noble friend, is that for overhead lines we are not talking about anything other than poles. This is not the kind of thing one has for mobile telephones; they are straightforward wooden poles with the wires on top. I recognise what has been said about the need to site these sensitively, because one is talking about sensitive areas.
I totally admire the sincerity of the noble Lord, Lord Judd, on this. He feels very strongly about it. The noble Lord, Lord Adonis, read a bit of a passage from the conclusions of the meeting with the national parks and others, which was held under my noble friend’s chairmanship on 1 March. He quoted the first sentence of the paragraph headed:
“Working together on the deployment of superfast broadband”.
It states:
“Ed Vaizey emphasised that the clause is not about stigmatising National Parks and AONBs as obstacles”.
That is absolutely right. He then went on to the next paragraph, but it is worth reading the words that come between because I think that to some extent they answer the question of the noble Lord, Lord Judd, as to why we have the clause at all. It states that Mr Vaizey said:
“Government recognises the important work that they”—
the national parks—
“already do in encouraging broadband deployment. However, we need to find a way forward to encourage investment in broadband and provide the certainty we need that will ensure the public money being used to support Broadband is not tied up with bureaucracy”.
Lord Judd
I wonder whether the noble Lord, who is a good friend of many years’ standing, might just reconsider the impression he is giving that it is a question of the practical needs of the nation against bureaucracy. I do not believe that that is the situation at all. Of course there are practical needs of the nation, and in this sense I declare an interest, as I have done before in our deliberations: I live in a national park and I want good broadband—of course that is true. Having said that, what we have had in the past is the paramount consideration of the unique role of the past. Regarding what is taking up time—and I again come back to the point which my noble friend has so convincingly made ever since we started deliberation on this Bill—it is precious difficult to find any evidence that there has ever been unnecessary delay or a hold-up of the kind described. In fact, I would suggest that there is no evidence that this is out of kilter with what happens anywhere else.
It seems to me that we want to ensure that, notwithstanding this need to take seriously the issue of broadband for the sake of a strong economy, we do not push to one side this paramount concern that we have had in the past. I do not believe that it is impossible to reconcile the two, but I think that it has to be argued very hard, and on occasion it will need a lot of serious deliberation. I do not think that it is just a straightforward administrative point. From this standpoint, it is not just a bureaucratic delay but a battle of priorities.
Lord Jenkin of Roding
I was happy to give way to the noble Lord and he has confirmed what I have always regarded as one of the most heartening aspects of this whole question: the universal desire to make sure that broadband reaches even the most remote rural areas so that they can participate in the modern economy. That is hugely important. It is absolutely right that it is a function of Parliament, and perhaps of this House in particular, to ensure that there are proper safeguards and controls and that AONBs are properly protected. The noble Lord, Lord Judd, talked about the unique value of these national parks. It is a question of finding a balance between those two.
I believe that this clause is right, and it would be a pity if the noble Lord were to press his amendment—I am not sure whether he will—and if it were carried. We have had a good discussion. The amount of care that my noble friend has taken and the number of meetings that she has convened and chaired herself have been extremely helpful in getting people to understand what is involved in this—and that certainly applies to me. I hope that we will resist the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Judd, while at the same time recognising his passion for defending his beloved national parks.
Energy Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding(13 years, 10 months ago)
Grand CommitteeRead Full debate Read Hansard Text
Lord Jenkin of Roding
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, is absolutely right. The more I have looked into this, the more I see that it is a very complex problem. It has been under discussion with the two industries and my noble friend’s department for some years. From time to time, pressure has been brought on one or the other to try to find a solution. I am sure that the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, is right but the prospects of a serious overlap are pretty small.
It seems to me that often the problem is bringing the product ashore. The problems with offshore oil and gas are well known but I know that some wind farms have found difficulty in finding ways of getting their supplies ashore. It has been suggested to me—I think this has been discussed with my noble friend’s department—that there might be some form of compulsory purchase onshore to ensure that the product of a wind farm can be brought ashore at the most appropriate place, even if at present the landowners are reluctant to give permission. However, it does not seem to me that this complex matter has been dealt with by a single amendment in a Bill of this sort.
I entirely take the point made by the noble Lord, Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan, that oil and gas will be very important—particularly gas—for many years ahead. It is not so long ago that there was a major discovery off the coast of Scotland—the Buzzard gas field—and that could still happen. These things are far from certain and gas has to be exploited where it is. Yes, as the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, implies, there is a limited capacity for drilling horizontally, if necessary, or at an angle to develop a field but my impression is that the two industries have tried over a long period to reach an accommodation about how this might be handled. I think we would be a little unwise to start legislating in the way the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, suggests and simply say that there can be a retrospective revocation or variation of a lease that has been given in respect of which a great deal of capital investment may have taken place.
On the whole, I do not support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, but I think that the discussions should continue. If it appears to my noble friend’s department that some legislative provision needs to be made, perhaps the Government could look at that for the next energy Bill, whenever it appears. My impression is that we may not see it this Session.
Lord Judd
In the cause of cohesion on this side of the Committee, might I say that it has been very intoxicating to have the thesis and the antithesis and, like others, in all humility I would like to put myself on the side of the synthesis? It seems to me that it would be tragic if we got into a vicious either/or battle. The issue is how to bring these things together constructively. I make the observation—no doubt I could be described as an unreconstructed politician of former days—that it seems to bring home to me the hazards of a market-dominated approach in these crucial strategic issues and that we really need very effective strategic planning into which the private sector can then feed its contribution. This debate brings home the need for a strategic approach, not just targets but how they are to be delivered because that is the crucial issue all the time. It is not just to spell out the aspirations; it is actually to have the mechanisms there to ensure they happen.
I take the urgency and importance of the vigorous argument of my noble friend Lord O’Neill seriously, and if I have one anxiety it is on that point. Employment, security, economy, the real immediate needs—those are all crucial and it would be naive to overlook them. However, I am fearful because we seem to keep getting caught up in the immediacy of the management situation, but the Bill should unashamedly take a visionary approach to the long-term future. I am sure that my noble friend Lord O’Neill would be the first to agree that he is talking about what we all know to be finite resources. That is crucial at this juncture. Sooner or later, this country will have to face the issue. It is not an ephemeral kind of idea; it is absolute fundamental practicality that the economy of this has to keep going at some future point without the availability—it is taken for granted—of the finite resources. If we always get into the crude argument, the long-term thinking will always be pushed to the side. We will always hear about all the difficulties and doubts.
Objective considerations about the reality of what is proposed are important, but many of these things are challenges to be overcome and to be got right; they are not excuses for delaying and pushing to one side. I for one put firmly on record that whether or not the idea is acceptable as an amendment, my noble friend Lord Whitty is to be warmly congratulated on again having brought it home to the Committee, in his characteristically firm way, that either we are serious about alternatives or we are not. If we are, we have to start putting some consistent muscle and priority behind those alternatives and stop saying that they are an also-ran to be fitted in when there are no other objections to be raised.
Energy Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Judd and Lord Jenkin of Roding(13 years, 10 months ago)
Grand CommitteeRead Full debate Read Hansard Text
Lord Jenkin of Roding
I yield to the noble Lord and any others, such as my noble friend Lord Deben. I am not as familiar as they are with the quality of the houses in Scandinavia. All I would point out is that winters in the Scandinavian countries and in many parts of northern Europe tend to be very much harsher than they have been over the decades and centuries in the United Kingdom. We get the benefit of the Gulf Stream, and so on. Last winter and the winter before were widely seen as exceptions to the trend. If you are not facing the same pressures from the climate as those faced by other countries which regularly have much harsher winters, I can well understand that perhaps we have been a bit slower in adopting the same standards as they have. All I am saying is that I do not think it is a realistic target that all new houses built after 2016 should be carbon neutral. It is certainly not realistic when no one seems able to agree—although they have been trying for quite a long time—what is actually a carbon-neutral house. I sound these notes not because I have any doubt about the bona fides and intention of my noble friend Lord Teverson, but because of the practicality.
Lord Judd
My Lords, I am tempted to follow the noble Lord, Lord Jenkin, down memory lane, because my first post on the edges of government was as a Parliamentary Private Secretary at the Ministry of Housing and Local Government. That was in the 1960s. I remember then how we were already beginning to face up, not only to the inadequate nature of the building, but to the very disturbing social consequences of the kind of building that had been carried out. We put a lot of effort into how we might turn some of the old terraced streets in our cities, for example, into attractive urban cottages, with space and the rest, to make communities and not just houses. However, I must not get distracted into nostalgic reminiscence.
I hope that the noble Lord will not be embarrassed by a surfeit of enthusiastic response on this side of the Committee to his proposition. I find myself, not for the first time, very impressed by his analysis and argument, and the vigour with which he pursues his case. I listened to the noble Lord, Lord Jenkin, questioning the issue of what is carbon neutral. This disturbs me profoundly. Here we are, in a situation of profound urgency, yet luxurious seminars are still being held all over the place discussing what is carbon neutral and what is not. When are we going to translate this real urgency that from every objective standard confronts us, into the urgency of action? If I look back at my life, I realise that my youth and formative years were during the Second World War. We were in the battle for survival, to preserve our land, and for humanity. We did not fuss about prescriptive regulations in those days. We did what was necessary to win the war. When are we in Parliament going to wake up to the fact that we are in a war situation? We are in the biggest strategic battle in the history of the human species to save the human species from the consequences of climate change and global warming. It is essential to turn this into specific action, and I cannot think of a more practical or sensible suggestion than to say that building regulations are a very good way in which to turn aspiration into effective action.
I have only one question. With the noble Lord’s persuasiveness and very sound commitment and analysis, does not he feel that 2016 is a bit luxurious? Because of the urgency of the situation, should not we have an earlier date than that?