European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill

Lord Hain Excerpts

2nd reading & 2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords & 2nd reading (Hansard)
Monday 13th January 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords, this Bill opens the way for a Singapore-upon-Thames race to the bottom by deliberately removing the level playing field provisions designed to prevent the UK undercutting the EU. It also fails to protect our communities from the dangers of future land grabs on the health service from United States drug companies. Rather than Parliament taking back control, the Bill aims to destroy Parliament’s ability to hold the Government to account as the negotiations proceed.

The EU will remain the biggest, richest single market in the world right on our doorstep, with 450 million people compared to the UK’s 66 million. The EU accounts for half of UK trade but the UK accounts for less than one-tenth of EU trade. The UK risks losing not only its membership of the EU single market but also around 70 highly advantageous EU deals with other countries worth another 11% of our overall trade. The Government have been trying to roll these over but Japan, for example, has refused, confident that it can extract better terms from London on its own than it has already with the much larger EU bloc.

The Bill also removes EU protections for the environment, consumers and workers’ rights. By deleting these and other level playing field provisions, which the EU has indicated are essential for a deal, and discarding the opportunity under the latest withdrawal agreement for the UK and the EU to agree an extension before 1 July 2020, the Bill also brings back the real threat of a catastrophic “no trade deal” at the end of the year. The hard-line Brexiteers support such an outcome, but let them bear in mind that no country in the world trades on WTO terms alone without additional agreements, especially with their nearest neighbours.

In just 11 months’ time, and in the absence of a trade deal, the UK could find itself at the mercy of the EU regarding the bilateral trading relationship. The refusal of the US to confirm the appointment of judges to the WTO appeals court means that from 11 December 2019 the WTO can no longer adjudicate on trade disputes. This puts the world at risk of a free trade free-for-all in which the largest blocs can use their economic weight to do as they wish. So, if the UK felt that the EU was imposing vexatious trade barriers, for example, there would be no legal redress for the British Government through the WTO.

A Canada-style free trade agreement favoured by No. 10 means little or nothing on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy and 45% of our exports. The EU, with which we have a trade surplus in services, would have no incentive to grant significant openings to the UK in a free trade agreement because, under the WTO’s rules, it could then be obliged to make similar offers to all third countries with which it already has bilateral free trade agreements.

As the former President of the European Commission, Donald Tusk, made clear in 2018,

“the EU cannot agree to grant the UK the rights of Norway with the obligations of Canada”,

which is exactly what the “cake and eat it” contingent surrounding the Prime Minister seem to expect.

If the UK wants to reach a deal, we have to recognise that it will need to be ratified by the Parliaments of 27 individual EU member states, and some regional bodies too. Trade is about trade-offs, and in fishing, for example, the UK will have to grant continued access to UK waters if our fishing communities wish to maintain their lucrative access to selling into the European Union market, which is critical for the UK’s fish-processing industry. If regulatory divergence begins to occur, EU access would cease. EU producers, meanwhile, would continue to have unfettered access to the UK market in goods, where the EU already has a huge surplus.

The Prime Minister insisted that for goods moving to and from Northern Ireland and Great Britain, there would be

“no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind.”

I am reminded of Nye Bevan: if the Prime Minister

“is sincere in what he is saying, and he may be, then he is too stupid to be a Prime Minister”.

I fear it is far worse than that, for there will indeed be checks and controls across the Irish Sea, with all sorts of dangerous uncertainties for the island of Ireland if there is no comprehensive deal at the end of this year or no amendment to the Bill as proposed.

Brexit: Preparations

Lord Hain Excerpts

Tuesday 8th October 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Callanan]

One of the challenges of Brexit is internal security. We have done a huge amount of work on that behind the scenes. It is disappointing that the EU seems to be refusing to discuss many of those points with us, but we are, the noble Lord can be assured, putting in place all the appropriate mitigations so that we can still get access to much of this information.

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

I echo the implication of the question from the noble Lord, Lord Bridges. Will the Minister confirm that no deal in respect of the Irish border will require direct rule, so that the necessary civil contingency arrangements can be put in place? There is no question that that is so, and I would be grateful if he confirmed it. Can the Minister also explain why he said one thing to your Lordships—it was also said by the Minister in the other place—on the question of a deal, while a No. 10 source is quoted in the Guardian online, just an hour ago, as my noble friend Lady Hayter indicated, following conversations with Chancellor Merkel and other leaders, including in Dublin, that a deal looks,

“essentially impossible, not just now but ever”?

[Lord Callanan]

With respect to the noble Lord’s first question, I will not go further than the answer I gave to the noble Lord, Lord Bridges. I take the point made by the noble Lords, but when we have announcements to make on such matters, we will do so in due course. I will not comment on off-the-record sources in the Guardian.

Brexit

Lord Hain Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd October 2019 Lords Chamber

[The Minister of State, Department for Exiting the European Union (Lord Callanan) (Con)]

My Lords, the Motion before us today asks the House to once again consider the UK’s withdrawal from the EU—which will take place on 31 October, with or without a deal. Of course, this House and its committees have been considering this topic with great scrutiny and interest ever since the 2016 referendum. I pay tribute to the stamina and continued focus of noble Lords in fulfilling this vital constitutional role.

The Government are committed to delivering on this instruction from the British people without any further pointless delay. The outcome that we want, and have always wanted, is a deal with the European Union—but if we cannot agree a new deal, we will have to leave without one.

I must commend noble Lords, including the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, on their excellent timing in scheduling this debate today; events are indeed unfolding fairly rapidly as we speak. I first highlight to noble Lords that, a short while ago, we published details of the Government’s proposals for alternatives to the backstop. A copy of the Written Ministerial Statement and supporting documentation is now available for noble Lords to collect from the Printed Paper Office.

I recognise, of course, that noble Lords would like to take time to review and consider the content of the WMS and documents, the details of which I will set out in a moment. Before I do that, I reassure noble Lords by confirming that they will have the opportunity to discuss this further in a Statement tomorrow.

This Government have made considerable progress in their negotiations with the EU. We have been working hard to negotiate changes to the withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The Prime Minister has been clear on the nature of these changes. We are unconditionally committed to finding a solution for the north/south border which protects the Belfast agreement, the commitments of which can best be met if we explore solutions other than the backstop. The backstop risks—

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

Will the noble Lord confirm, in the light of the Prime Minister’s speech earlier today and the proposals that have just been published, that effectively the Government are saying, “We won’t impose border controls of a customs check character at or near the border, but since that border is the external customs union frontier of the European Union and the Republic of Ireland, it is up to them to do it”? Is that not a despicable, pass-the-parcel, grubby approach to all this?

[Lord Callanan]

The noble Lord makes his point in his normal forthright manner. If he has a little patience, I will come to the details of our proposals in a little while.

The backstop risks weakening the delicate balance embodied in the Belfast agreement between both major traditions in Northern Ireland, grounded in agreement, consent and respect for minority rights. Removing control of areas of the commercial and economic life of Northern Ireland to an external body over which the people of Northern Ireland have no control risks undermining that balance. Any deal ahead of Brexit on 31 October must avoid the whole of the UK or just Northern Ireland being trapped in an arrangement where they are a rule taker.

These discussions with the Commission and EU leaders have intensified, with regular sessions taking place over a number of weeks. The Prime Minister’s EU sherpa, David Frost, has continued to lead a cross-party team for these detailed discussions with the Commission’s Taskforce 50, in line with the Prime Minister and President of the European Commission’s agreement to intensify the pace of discussions. Within the last couple of hours in Brussels, he has delivered to the EU the UK’s proposals on a replacement to the backstop. These are the proposals which we have laid in Parliament today.

I know that your Lordships will probably not have had the time or opportunity to read the document published a short while ago. I will therefore set out the main points of the Prime Minister’s offer to the EU. First, this proposal is based above all on our commitment to find solutions which are compatible with the Belfast agreement, the fundamental basis for governance in Northern Ireland.

Secondly, it confirms our commitment to long-standing areas of UK-Ireland collaboration: the common travel area; the rights of all those living in Northern Ireland; and north/south co-operation.

Thirdly, the proposal provides for the creation of an all-island regulatory zone on the island of Ireland, covering all goods and eliminating regulatory checks for trade in goods between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Fourthly, and unlike the backstop, this regulatory zone will be dependent on the consent of those affected by it. This is essential to the acceptability of arrangements under which part of the UK accepts the rules of a different political entity. In our view, it is fundamental to democracy. The Government therefore propose that the continuation of the regulatory zone after the transition period will be subject to the principle of consent of the people of Northern Ireland.

Fifthly, the proposal ensures that Northern Ireland will be fully part of the UK customs territory, not the EU customs territory, after the end of the transition period. It has always been a fundamental point for this Government that the UK will leave the EU customs union at the end of the transition period, since control of trade policy is fundamental to this country’s future prosperity.

Finally, in order to support Northern Ireland through our withdrawal from the EU, and in collaboration with others with an interest, this Government propose a new deal for Northern Ireland, with appropriate commitments to help boost economic growth and Northern Ireland’s competitiveness, and to support infrastructure projects, particularly with a cross-border focus. Taken together, these proposals respect the decision taken by the people of the UK to leave the EU while dealing pragmatically with that decision’s consequences in Northern Ireland and in Ireland. Together, we believe that these will allow us to reach agreement with the EU under Article 50 and to leave the EU with a deal that both respects the referendum result and provides a strong platform for our future relationship.

As I am sure noble Lords will agree, leaving the EU with a deal on 31 October is the preferable outcome. However, we have stepped up preparations across government and will be fully ready for Brexit on 31 October whatever the circumstances. As the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster made clear in his Statements to the other place, and as I repeated in this House last month on 3 September and again on 25 September, we have indeed ramped up our no-deal preparations. The Government are committed to prioritising stability for citizens, consumers, businesses and the economy. I know that many noble Lords have previously raised the important issue of citizens’ rights. I yet again reassure noble Lords that this Government are clear that citizens’ rights will never be used as a bargaining chip. That is why the Prime Minister has provided an unequivocal guarantee to the more than 3 million EU citizens living and working in the UK that they can have absolute certainty of the right to live and remain in the UK whether we leave with or without a deal. Under the EU settlement scheme, over 1.5 million EU citizens have secured their future in the UK, and the Home Office continues to process up to 20,000 applications per day.

As well as the smooth flow of people from the UK into the EU and vice versa, our economic priorities include ensuring the continued flow of goods. The Government have committed to a number of steps in order to do this. For example, we have committed to introducing temporary easements for traders and hauliers to smooth the transition to new controls; and to maintain continuity of trade, we have signed or agreed in principle 15 trade continuity agreements to date, covering 45 countries and accounting for 72% of the trade for which we are seeking continuity in a no-deal Brexit. The work that we are taking forward will ensure that businesses are ready for exit.

The precise impacts of a no-deal Brexit are of course difficult to predict but we have taken steps to define the potential impact and develop reasonable worst-case planning assumptions upon which we can build our contingency plans. Operation Yellowhammer is the cross-government programme of work to ensure that the Government are prepared to mitigate the potential impacts of Brexit in the event that the UK leaves without a deal.

The Government are ready for and committed to withdrawal from the EU, with or without a deal, on 31 October and without further pointless delay. We have ramped up all our preparations to deliver that. This Government are clear that people want to see Brexit delivered by 31 October, and we are determined to deliver on their wishes. I beg to move.

European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill

Lord Hain Excerpts

2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords
Thursday 5th September 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Ipswich (CB)]

My Lords, as foreshadowed by its strange nickname—the surrender Bill—this Bill seems fated to be pigeonholed in the public debate as a remainer instrument that would need to be instantly repealed in the event of a Conservative victory at what we must assume to be the forthcoming general election. Of course, it gives some short-term comfort to those, like me, who still believe that our national interest is best served by staying in—but I suggest that this Bill, if passed, may prove to be of assistance even to dedicated leavers, should they soon find themselves with a parliamentary majority. It will save them from the consequences of the impetuous decision to set the date of 31 October in stone. It will do so in particular by allowing desperately needed time for two things the Government say they want: a withdrawal agreement and preparatory legislation.

Let us assume—generously, perhaps—that the Government are sincere in their stated preference for a negotiated Brexit. Their current position appears to be that an election in mid-October could be followed by a few days’ frenzied negotiation on the basis of proposals not yet submitted, a deal at the European summit in mid-October, the subsequent ratification of that deal—not only by this House but by the European Parliament—and the passage of a new and no doubt lengthy withdrawal agreement Bill, all by 31 October.

The Bill introduces an element of realism into that equation. It will have no effect if the Government achieve their stated aim of a deal by the European summit. Indeed, as the noble Baroness, Lady Ludford, said, even a subsequent deal will deactivate its requirements, according to Clause 1(5). If the Government do not achieve their aim, the extension that must be requested under the Bill is long enough for negotiations but not for a further referendum. Indeed, Clause 2 proceeds on the assumption that negotiations will progress during that period.

If our fate is to crash out with no deal, legislation will be required, and here too the Bill gives much-needed time. The Government were saying earlier this year that six new Bills were needed before a no-deal Brexit. Five of those Bills are still before Parliament. They will obviously not progress over the next few weeks, and I understand that it may not be possible even to carry over some of them into a new Session. Without those Bills, the Government will not be able—to give a few examples—to establish a trade remedies authority, set fishing quotas or even end free movement, if that is what they wish to do. To the dangers of a no-deal Brexit must be added the hazards of a legal vacuum.

Then there are the 100 Brexit-related statutory instruments that the Brexit Secretary said on 27 June were required before Brexit day. According to today’s UK Constitutional Law Association blog, only 27 of those have been laid, and Parliament is about to lose its ability to sift and scrutinise any that may be laid in the weeks to come.

We are all being urged to be ready for Brexit. This Bill is, among other things, an essential part of that process, and it has my support.

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Lord Wigley (PC)]

My Lords—

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hain]

My Lords, I do not think the Labour Benches have spoken recently. It is a pleasure to follow my friend, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, as it was to follow the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, who is indeed a friend as well.

I fear that the new Prime Minister, his advisers and his Ministers are clearly hell-bent on crashing this United Kingdom out of the European Union without a deal. There is a dogmatic, hard-right elite in No. 10. In passing this Bill, Parliament is standing up for the decent majority in this country and against that malevolent elite. This sinister, self-serving, ideologically obsessed, wilfully destructive approach has to be stopped in its tracks. We in your Lordships’ House have a chance to do that today in supporting the elected House of Commons.

A salutary measure of the reckless dogmatism of the Brexiteers is that surveys show that two-thirds of Conservative Party members and the same proportion of Leave supporters simply do not care if Brexit means a hard Irish border or Scotland leaving the United Kingdom. For them Brexit is everything, come what may. You might say that, for them, Brexit trumps everything.

With the clock ticking rapidly towards 31 October, the new Government have done precisely nothing in their couple of months in office—deliberately so. Whatever the Prime Minister’s disingenuous protestations, he is running down the clock to crash out of the European Union on 31 October unless we stop him.

We simply cannot believe what he says. As Aidan O’Neill QC said of the Prime Minister in submissions to the Court of Session in Edinburgh on behalf of the 77 parliamentarians in the challenge to the Government’s arbitrary Prorogation of Parliament:

“You look at the record, you try as best you can to determine the credibility and reliability of what is said against a background of an individual whose personal, professional and political life has been characterised by incontinent mendacity or, to make it plainer, an unwillingness or inability to acknowledge and speak the truth”.


I see that the Prime Minister’s EU negotiator was back in Brussels again yesterday, again with nothing to say, nothing to offer and nothing to propose—a briefcase full of blank sheets of paper, I suspect, and a waste of taxpayers’ money on his Eurostar fare, I would venture. Apparently, this negotiator is an able and experienced diplomat. Having worked with his predecessors, I have no doubt that he is, but his political masters will not let him use those talents and do his job. Instead, the Prime Minister travels to Paris and Berlin— Dublin next Monday, too—then exaggerates or fabricates what exactly happened.

“We’re making real progress”, claims the Prime Minister. I have checked directly with government contacts in the main capitals and with people in Brussels and that is simply not true. Look at the comments on the record from Paris, Berlin, Brussels and Dublin, and it is crystal clear that not one single proposal has been made. It is also clear that they are not budging. Why would you in any negotiation if the other side has not made any counterproposal at all?

The tragedy is that this is not incompetence. This is not a Government taking their time in the background to prepare a serious, considered new idea. It is deliberate inaction, running down that clock and being gratuitously insulting to our friends in the Irish Republic, hoping to make it to a no-deal exit designed to turn this country upside down and convert it into a free-for-all, deregulated and fundamentally unequal society blissfully disengaged from its neighbours and isolated from the outside world.

Today, we get a chance to make the Prime Minister stop that clock. I do not want Brexit at all and I think the people should have another say in a public vote to stop this madness, but if the choice ends up being between a deal and no deal, we have to stop no deal.

[Lord Hayward (Con)]

Following on from the noble Lord’s comments about checking with other European capitals, I did likewise this morning and asked whether any full proposal has been put forward in relation to any aspect of the negotiations. I received the categoric response that no proposals have been put forward.

[Lord Hain]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord for that intervention because he is absolutely right and confirms what I was asserting.

Nowhere is the serial dishonesty of the Prime Minister starker than on the Irish border. Do not take it from me; take it from our very own Civil Service, whose work on no-deal planning emerged in mid-August in what was known as Operation Yellowhammer. Its analysis made it crystal clear that, although Ministers keep saying that they will not do so, not putting up border controls will be unsustainable because of,

“economic, legal and biosecurity risks”,

and that this could lead to “direct action” and road blockades. I fear that that is an understatement.

Next, there is the Northern Ireland Civil Service, an organisation under considerable pressure because of not just Brexit but the shameful lack of a Government in Belfast. Its top official said bluntly that the impact would be much more severe than in Great Britain and would have profound and lasting social and economic consequences, and that the overall consequences for Northern Ireland would be grave.

Worse again—if that is possible—the new chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland warned that Brexit could become a “trigger” and a “fuelling point” to attract more people to extremist groups. His assistant chief constable was reported to have said in an interview that,

“we would be concerned for a six to 12-month time frame there would be some sort of upsurge in support for dissident republican groupings and activities”.

Those are not my words; they are the words of police chiefs. I could go on but, on the basis of just those three assessments by professional public servants, I ask this: why in God’s name would we ever wilfully facilitate these no-deal outcomes? The Prime Minister seems happy to do so, but I am not—and I trust that this House is not happy either.

At the root of the problem is that the Prime Minister and his fellow Brexiteers never have had a proper plan of their own for Brexit. They never put one forward in the referendum, and on the Irish border he still does not have a plan. That is why many of them openly favour no deal: because it is the only alternative if you have no plan.

The truth is that no deal equals a hard border because that is what falling out under World Trade Organization rules means. I am no fan of former Prime Minister May’s withdrawal agreement, but I accept the backstop knowing the complexities of Northern Ireland from my time as Secretary of State. In his reckless, bull-headed fashion, the Prime Minister has made the backstop the villain of the piece, but it is an insurance policy and, if alternative arrangements are found to achieve the same objectives, of the same open border as we have now, then it is set aside. What is wrong with that?

The Prime Minister and many commentators here—and, sadly, some elements in Belfast as well—try to pretend that Northern Ireland is no different from anywhere else: that it is just another border, like, as he famously said, that between two London boroughs and just another straightforward place where trade in goods is the only issue. In fact, the Prime Minister seems to have dumbed this down even further and decided that the only goods traded are animals and food. I thought the intervention of the noble Lord, Lord Patten, was extremely telling. I have great respect for the noble Lord, Lord Howell, but he did not answer his noble friend’s question: there is no other border in the whole world like the Irish border. That is why it needs a particular solution and not a no-deal outcome.

The Prime Minister surely knows deep down that it is not true either that this border is simply about animals and food. It is a 300-mile border with some 300 crossings—those are the formal crossings; leave aside the farms that cross the border and other communities that straddle it—unlike almost every other border in the world. It has unique arrangements under the Good Friday/Belfast agreement for north-south co-operation and that agreement is an international treaty. A little-noticed document published on 7 December by the Department for Exiting the EU lists no fewer than 157 different areas of cross-border work and co-operation on the island of Ireland, north and south, and many have been facilitated by Ireland’s and the UK’s common membership of the EU. These areas are the things of everyday life; they go well beyond animals and food and must never have a new border erected to block, discourage or thwart them. They include food, tourism, schools, colleges, farming, fighting crime, tackling environmental pollution, water quality and supply, waste management, bus services, train services, cancer care, GPs and prescriptions, blood transfusions and gas and electricity supply.

Almost every one of these areas is about people’s everyday cross-border lives and almost all are linked to the European Union, and Ireland’s and the UK’s common membership of it since 1973—we joined at the same time. To interfere with those arrangements—either through no deal, the terms of any divorce deal or any new trade agreements that we may someday, somehow strike with EU partners—would be a terrible step backwards for which the people of the island of Ireland would pay a terrible price, as would we in Great Britain.

With other Peers, I learned one other thing the other day. With Stormont suspended and unlikely to be resurrected unless Brexit is stopped, if no deal occurred there would be no legal powers left for the Northern Ireland Civil Service to maintain the necessary civil contingency and security arrangements in border communities and beyond. In other words, no deal means direct rule. That is the serious consequence for the island of Ireland of no deal.

I am desperately worried for the future of Britain under no deal, but I am absolutely livid about the impact on the island of Ireland. It will destroy the work of successive UK and Irish Governments in helping courageous and visionary leaders in Northern Ireland to remove borders and instead put them back up. If for no other reason than to maintain peace and progress in Northern Ireland and good relations with the Republic, I urge that this Bill pass without amendment.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hain]

Will the Minister agree with his government colleague the Cabinet Minister Nicky Morgan, who indicated on BBC Radio 4’s “World at One” at lunchtime that if the Prime Minister gets his way, there is a mid-October election and he wins it, he will repeal the Bill or activate the clause within it to ensure that no deal occurs?

[Lord Callanan]

It is difficult for me to comment on an interview that I have not heard. I am sure the noble Lord is quoting her words accurately but, if he will forgive me, I will not comment on that precisely until I have seen the details of what Nicky Morgan actually said. We are commenting on a Bill that has not been passed through this House or completed its final stages in the other House. I repeat that the Government will of course abide by the law. I certainly cannot predict what might happen in a future general election, nor can I comment on what a future Government might do with the Bill in response to that.

Brexit: Appointment of Joint Committee

Lord Hain Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords, I appeal to both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt—more in hope than in expectation, I fear—to read the cogent, cool and indisputable speech of the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. It would be a mercy for us all, if they did.

One of the principles set out in the Prime Minister’s letter triggering Article 50 was that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would cause no harm to the Republic of Ireland. This is vital because the bilateral relationship between our Government and the Republic’s is the lynchpin of the 1998 Good Friday agreement and the peace process. Yet a no-deal Brexit would have profoundly damaging consequences for both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which voted by 56% to 44% to remain in the EU in 2016.

Back in late 2010, the coalition Government proposed a small bilateral loan to the Republic at the height of the financial crisis. The Chancellor George Osborne then said:

“I judge this to be in Britain’s national interest … Ireland accounts for 5% of Britain’s total exports … we export more to Ireland than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together. Ireland is the only country with which we share a land border, and in Northern Ireland our economies are particularly linked, with two-fifths of their exports going to the Republic”—[Official Report, Commons, 22/10/10; col. 38.].


Those are the words of the former Chancellor. Fully two-fifths of Northern Ireland’s exports go to the Republic.

Ireland’s economy repaid the loan and has bounced back since those dark days of 2010. Our fifth largest export destination has increased its trade with us to over £50 billion a year; 200,000 jobs here in Britain are with Irish companies; 60,000 directors of UK companies are Irish citizens; and the Dublin-London air route is the world’s second busiest. With no deal, the Republic officially foresees up to 85,000 job losses, just at the point where the Irish economy has reached full employment. A hard-earned return to budget surplus will reverse back into a deficit, with knock-on effects for public services and infrastructure investment, and of course serious damage for its close neighbour, Northern Ireland.

If Brexit really does have to happen, I will agree with the spirit and letter of the backstop arrangements—an insurance policy to ensure that the border stays open at all costs. Make no mistake: no deal means a hard border—a legal requirement of WTO, and therefore EU, external frontier rules. The impact on Northern Ireland and its fragile economy would be grave. The head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, in measured words, wrote to the political parties of Northern Ireland earlier this year:

“The consequences of material business failure as a result of a ‘no-deal’ exit, combined with changes to everyday life and potential border frictions could well have a profound and long-lasting impact on society ... a no-deal exit could result in additional challenges for the police”.


Wales’s key port of Holyhead, the third busiest port in the UK, its work overwhelmingly with Ireland, would be especially badly hit. As the Welsh First Minister, Mark Drakeford, said,

“a no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the Welsh economy”.

One-third of the value of cross-border trade is in agri-food, and there is simply no way of maintaining the frictionless trade and processing of such goods—including all of Northern Ireland’s fresh milk, which is processed in the Republic—across the border in a no-deal scenario. The import duties, plus detailed rules that require certification, document inspections and checks on agri-food products crossing the border, will all but cripple the industry. Ninety-four per cent of those who trade across the Irish border are small or micro-enterprises. Few, if any, of these have the capacity or resources to implement the measures needed in a cliff-edge Brexit—still less the resources to pay sudden new tariffs.

One of the most likely means of temporarily managing the catastrophic fallout for Northern Ireland would be for the UK and the EU to invoke Article XXI(b)(iii) of GATT—the so-called “security clause”. This would allow exemption from the responsibility to properly enforce a customs border on the grounds that the reimposition of customs controls would pose a risk to the peace process. However, in so doing, we would be essentially declaring Northern Ireland unstable, insecure and unfit for normal trading or investment—in other words, doing the dirty work of the dissident republican terrorists for them.

As your Lordships’ Select Committee on the European Union has pointed out, the costs and disruptions from the customs requirements, including tariffs, that would flow from trading under the very WTO rules that hard Brexiteers, including potentially our future Prime Minister, champion,

“could severely affect the border and UK-Irish relations”.

The Good Friday agreement, recognised as a treaty under international law, brought peace after decades of horrific conflict, but it would be catastrophically damaged by no deal.

Both the Tory leader candidates yesterday spuriously suggested that novel, but so far completely unidentified, technology can prevent a hard border, but unless there are common trade regulations and customs rules on either side of the border, no amount of fancy, undeveloped technology can resolve the problem. It is not the backstop but a no-deal Brexit that will threaten the union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which is a major reason why no deal must be stopped, and stopped now.

EU: Law-making Process

Lord Hain Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Callanan]

I will not comment on the last part of my noble friend’s statement, but of course I think that knowledge of the internal or single market, the European Economic Area and free trade agreements is always useful for Members of Parliament, as well as for members of the public.

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords, will the Minister confirm to the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, among others, that when there are votes in meetings of the Council of Ministers—most decisions are taken by consensus—in 95% of those votes Britain has won our position? That is an acknowledged and widely reported fact.

[Lord Callanan]

The interesting thing about the EU system is that there is some truth in what both noble Lords have said. There are rarely votes in the Council. In the General Affairs Council, on which I sit, there are hardly any votes but that is because compromises are arrived at. Countries accept that they will not get all that they want so, at the same time they can argue that they have been part of the winning side because some part of their position might have been incorporated into the final agreement. That, again, is one of the complexities of the system.

European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill

Lord Hain Excerpts

2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords
Thursday 4th April 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Rooker (Lab)]

My Lords, I have been present for every speech today. I was sorely tempted to intervene on the odd one or two, but I kept reminding myself that I have to be diplomatic and brief during Second Reading and not upset anybody. I was always under pressure, thinking that, somewhere in this building—or on the estate—lots of meetings would be going on, trying to sort out or ease our clear difficulties with the Bill’s timetable during the day. Of course, this culminated in the welcome Business Statement by the Government Chief Whip, which I was very pleased about, so I will not make some points and I will not take very long.

I am moving the Motion because this is a Private Member’s Bill—it is a Public Bill and has the same status as any other Bill that happens to be led by a private Member—and I was asked if I would kick it off in this House. It is sponsored by Members of Parliament in the Commons from four political parties; it is not a Labour Party exercise, despite the constant refrain from a couple of noble Lords earlier. We are not in a normal situation; nobody is arguing that. The timetable of Brexit is an internal timetable in the UK but there is an external timetable, which we do not control, in the European Union.

Our role is not to rubber-stamp the elected Commons at any time; I make no apology for saying that. We need to consider what is sent to us. We do that—for example, that is why we do not vote on Second Reading—but we also have to consider the context in which it is sent to us. This is not normal. We are considering not Brexit—I am certainly not—but how now, today, the Commons is dealing with the Bill, because the case is not the same as it was one, two, three or four months ago. It has been forced into this situation. I was a Member there for only 27 years; others were there a lot longer. It is clearly now under extreme pressure, which is why this Bill was promoted. The Commons decided to take responsibility and control of the decision on a no-deal Brexit. We have gone past the stage where many members of the public thought no deal meant not leaving. That was the theme for months. When discussions relating to leaving without any arrangement took place, people assumed we would not leave. That is not the case.

For example, this morning we heard our police leaders in the UK warning about using language on Brexit that inflames a sensitive situation, possibly leading to violence. This is the UK today: police leaders warning us about our language on Brexit because it is potentially leading to violent acts. We heard the odd potential threat subliminally during the filibuster earlier today. This is a really serious situation. In my experience—45 years in Westminster—this has never happened before.

We also know that the Cabinet was last week warned by the National Security Adviser about a substantial rise in food prices as a result of leaving without a deal. Coincidentally, it just so happens that this House was due today to debate the evidence that the EU sub-committee reported as long ago as last May about food price rises due to Brexit. There is abundant evidence, which clearly the National Security Adviser has—he probably has better evidence than we have—that this is potentially a serious problem.

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

Will my noble friend also remind the House that the Cabinet Secretary warned that there would be direct rule in Northern Ireland if there were no deal?

[Lord Rooker]

Yes, he did. I have kept away from the debate on Northern Ireland. I had one year there as a direct rule Minister dealing with very much domestic issues. I know the sensitivities of the language used when you are there, what you talk about and how you discuss things with the five political parties. It is pretty serious, but the present situation in Northern Ireland is unacceptable to the people of Northern Ireland, because they have no democratic structures other than local government, which is what they had during all the Troubles. The councillors in Northern Ireland have carried the democratic burden alone for all these years.

When I do the half a dozen sessions for the Peers in Schools programme for the year, I always preface them by saying that we have two Houses of Parliament but they are not equal. That is the central message I leave. The role of the Lords is to scrutinise and sometimes to ask the Commons to think again—that is what happens when we have a defeat of the Government; that is just a message to the Commons—but knowing that the Commons always has the last word. But of course, we are not in normal times. The timescale for what we have facing us next week amounts to a national emergency, which is why the Cabinet received the advice it did last week.

We need to treat the Commons with respect. I watched some of the debate yesterday, particularly towards the close of the evening because I was not certain whether I would be speaking on this subject, if the Bill carried, or, if it failed, on the food debate we were due to have. The Commons, like the country, is split and divided. We should therefore treat it with a degree of respect, not criticise just because it was one vote—a personal comment was made today about one of the individuals who took part in the voting. The nation is divided and the elected House of Parliament is divided; we should take that on board. That is why people welcomed the attempt last Tuesday by the Prime Minister to try to get some kind of consensus. The Commons alone has the legal responsibility on the meaningful vote. Some of them have woken up to the fact that, besides the meaningful vote, every other procedure has to come through this Chamber so that it can be scrutinised and checked. That is why we are doing this Bill today.

It is a simple Bill; I know there is criticism about that. Things that are simple are usually unfair—the poll tax is the example I use—but it is a simple, clear Bill. If Ministers’ words in Hansard could be fully trusted, this Bill would not be needed. I disagreed entirely with the thrust of most of the speech by the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, but her amendment was the one that was actually true in the sense that the Bill is not needed—but it is needed because people do not trust the words of Ministers, even when they are in Hansard. Enough have said repeatedly, “We will not leave without a deal”, but that lack of trust forced the Commons to produce this Bill, which in effect—I am not a lawyer—gives a legal force to that promise. I realise that it is not easy. I was aware early this morning that there were problems with the Bill; there were lots of discussions going on. I was grateful to the Delegated Powers and Regulatory Reform Committee and its chair, because I had its report in my hands and read it 20 minutes before the chairman made his speech. It is very helpful but makes it quite clear that there are problems over Clause 2. Along with other matters, these have to be dealt with.

We should debate the Bill—we have a bit more time now—and send it back to the Commons, but it has to be done in line with the timescale it is forced to work to. The European Council is on Wednesday. The Bill requires the Prime Minister, a day after Royal Assent, to make the necessary decisions. It is a bit tight. That is why it must go to the Commons on Monday and get Royal Assent that day, so that on Tuesday the Prime Minister can fulfil the obligation placed on her. It says “must”. I was queried earlier today on what the sanction is if she does not. I spoke to someone who has worked with the Prime Minister for the best part of just over 20 years, day in and day out. He told me she is the most law-abiding person he has ever come across and that even when she is late for a meeting she makes sure the car goes at only 29 miles per hour. She will follow it to the letter. If the Act says she must, she will do it. There is every confidence in that, but it is the timescale that she and we are not fully in control of. We have to do our bit for the UK and the Government so that decisions can be made next Wednesday at the Council about the reason for and the length of an extension to Article 50.

I think the Bill actually helps the Prime Minister at this stage in the process, and we should support it at Second Reading—the House does not throw Bills out at Second Reading, otherwise we could never scrutinise them. I beg to move.

Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union

Lord Hain Excerpts

Monday 28th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe]

I will come on to talk about tariffs in the event of no deal. Obviously, I was referring to the point that has been made about the apparent change in the Irish position in recent days, which others have already referred to. My understanding is—

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

I apologise for interrupting because I know that time is pressing, and I am grateful to the noble Baroness. Is it not the truth that the Irish Government are acting with integrity, as we should be, in supporting the backstop as an insurance policy to keep that border open and keep the Good Friday agreement alive and peace in progress? They are acting responsibly. I am very surprised, as someone who has a great deal of respect for the noble Baroness, that she is criticising the Irish Government for defending what everyone says they agree with.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe]

I am saying that they have overplayed their hand. I believe, and I think the noble Lord will agree with me, that the EU is about compromise and consensus-building. I know from my own experience in the Council of Ministers that unfair outcomes, often promoted in silken terms by the French and their supporters, sometimes have to be moderated. Other member states to which I have spoken recently are concerned about the damage from no deal and are increasingly seeing the problem. So the climate is gradually improving, and if we returned to Brussels with unity and resolve, we could prevail.

There is also a question as to whether the backstop is really needed. I believe that the Good Friday agreement, which has widespread support everywhere, is a natural backstop, and that it will be taken into account in the future relationship, deal or no deal. An open border is no bar to the enforcement of different arrangements, as I know from operating right across Ireland in my time in retail. We had enforcement of different rates on alcohol and of VAT and other taxes and regulations. My noble friend Lord Howell of Guildford has already made this important point.

A major change to the deal is necessary, in my view, to secure support in the Commons.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Dykes (CB)]

My Lords, I will not necessarily follow others in their very interesting analyses of the possible vote outcomes tomorrow. For us, the humble House of Lords, there is a general feeling that the whole pattern and mixture of amendments—their flavour and content—is so complicated, even for parliamentarians, to absorb by way of accurate predictions that we have to await the outcome of those matters before drawing conclusions, which, I hope, will be positive about our position as members of the European Union. That would be a better way of doing it, rather than speculating too much—as of course parliamentarians are fully entitled to do.

I suppose that some colleagues here would generally agree with the proposition that Monday morning is always a bad time, as people have to return to work and they can be in a bad mood. Although I have never normally suffered from that ailment, which is justifiable and understandable, I certainly felt in a bad mood this morning after hearing yet another hysterical broadcast on the BBC Radio 4 “Today” programme. Nick Robinson was trying to bully a very distinguished TD in the Irish Dáil to admit that the Irish Government would then soften their stance when all they are doing is agreeing with the other member states of the European Union on the generally agreed position, on which there can be no further movement. So hysterical had he become that, by the end, he was more or less screaming at the distinguished TD, and then made it even worse by suddenly saying, “Oh, we’ve run out of time, now it’s the weather forecast, you can go”. It was such a nauseatingly offensive broadcast that I shall pen a letter to the BBC tomorrow—I have not had time to do it yet—because Nick Robinson is joining John Humphrys in being an entirely reckless broadcaster.

[Lord Hain]

I very much endorse what the noble Lord says. I find deeply worrying the reckless way in which many leading figures in public life, including in Parliament, simply attack the Irish Government, destroying what has been a carefully and patiently built relationship after a tangled history. This must stop, and it must stop now.

[Lord Dykes]

That is not the first time I have agreed with the noble Lord in his assertions, which are usually very accurate, and I do so wholeheartedly in this case. It is the weight of that very adverse, condescending history of Britain and England’s relationship with the Irish that smacks of being repeated when people behave like that nowadays. Think of what Ireland has achieved as a country and as a loyal, constructive and successful member of the European Union, not one that whinges and moans about everything, as unfortunately have far too many politicians over the years of our membership of the EU, which is still continuing, in case people have not noticed that.

The other reason for my bad mood this morning was the totally ludicrous and absurd article in the Daily Telegraph by that failed ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson about his advice to the Prime Minister. After all the chaos of recent weeks, his even presuming to give any advice was grotesque. However, my mood changed for the better as I came here for work—early, as usual, of course, in a virtuous sense—because of the flag-wavers outside, led by the immensely impressive but hugely modest Steve Bray and his team. They have now been there for nearly three years, day in, day out, from 10 am—not 11 am, as it was before—until 6 pm. There are even more flags, and the leave component at the end, trembling with fear, consisted of one or two flags. That sums up the reality of the public feeling about these matters. Many of those educated people who join in the flag-waving are British citizens living in EU countries, who come over whenever they can, while others have a deep knowledge of the functioning of the EU and the success of our membership of it. If only we had made more effort. So I felt better after that, but, none the less, the Brexit nightmare is getting worse.

I find it astonishing that colleagues such as the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, are so complacent about Mrs May’s alarming and indeed atrocious behaviour—I am sorry to have to use that strong adjective—especially after the 8 June election result. For her to go through the necessary and inevitable motions to follow up on the legislative requirements after the referendum result would be one thing, but to go on after that election result as if nothing had changed was quite preposterous. The mandate had been lost, but she did not accept that. In the old days in the House of Commons, when I was an MP, there was a natural self-restraint between members of all parties, and that would have been accepted by the Prime Minister, who would have said, “I no longer have this mandate to carry on this negotiation”. Instead, however, she did a grotesque deal with the most unpopular party in the House of Commons, let alone probably in the country, apart from some people in Northern Ireland: the unsavoury DUP—Protestant extremists who resist and oppose all women’s rights in Northern Ireland, in contrast to what happens now in England, with our more modern legislation. To go on as if nothing had changed was unacceptable. This now means, as the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, wisely said, that profound changes are in danger of being made on the hoof in the Commons. That can be an unfortunate consequence of what happens if mistakes are made. The Prime Minister pretended to hold substantive talks only after her massive defeat in the Commons last time—the biggest defeat in parliamentary history.

In the UK, we have always, tragically, failed to explain the EU’s functions and its success story. The euro is a good example. It is feared here, because we were driven out of the exchange rate mechanism, but it is also regarded as a dangerous currency. In fact, the euro is the most successful currency in the world, getting closer and closer to the US dollar, and most member states are very happy with it. Some have found it harder to adjust than others, but that is natural in such a large grouping. I am glad to remind noble Lords that my own modest European Union (Information, etc.) Bill, is still awaiting a Committee of the Whole House—I believe it is number 11 on the list. If it comes through, it will provide that information that should have been available in public libraries and public buildings all over this country, explaining how the EU functions, in non-partisan terms, to give people the necessary information about it.

I come back to the present crisis, which is a grotesque nightmare for everyone, even the Brexiteers, more and more of whom are beginning to realise that this is the case. The SNP MP for Glenrothes, Peter Grant, the party’s foreign affairs and Europe spokesman, recently intervened on the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union:

“The Prime Minister has promised that her discussions with the devolved nations and the Opposition parties will be without preconditions, so clearly she will not refuse even to discuss the prospect of extending article 50, because that would be a precondition; she will not refuse even to discuss the prospect of taking no deal off the table, because that would be a precondition; and she will not refuse even to discuss the possibility of giving the people another say, because that would be a precondition. Can the Secretary of State therefore confirm on the record that all those topics will be available for discussion, in honour of the Prime Minister’s promise that there will be no preconditions?”.—[Official Report, Commons, 24/1/19; col. 318.]


The most important absence of a precondition would be to give the people the chance of another vote.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hain]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, spelling out European realities, given that he knows them well—although I think he was rather uncharitable in pulling the leg of my noble friend Lady Hayter.

I speak in strong support of my noble friend Lady Smith’s Motion. There are now just 60 days to go to Brexit, come what Theresa May. This is “make your mind up” time. As Michel Barnier has pointed out:

“To stop no deal, a positive majority for another solution will need to emerge.”


It is therefore imperative to extend Article 50 in order to prevent the calamity of no deal and allow time to see whether there is an agreed way forward—including whether a people’s vote is the only way out of this nationally humiliating, utter mess.

The Government are currently held hostage by a group of right-wing extremists who are blocking any compromise on the Prime Minister’s completely unrealistic and undesirable “red lines”. Preoccupied with their fundamentalism and fantasies about so-called free trade and sovereignty, they are quite willing to sacrifice the well-being and security of our country—as well as, perhaps most disgracefully, peace and continued progress on the island of Ireland. In contemplating or even positively advocating no deal, as many do, they are willing to risk every trade agreement the UK currently has. But the wheels are finally coming off the European Research Group free trade bandwagon, as their illusions are exposed. For the truth is that they never had a practical Brexit plan of their own.

Two weeks ago we learned that, contrary to airy promises made in 2017, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has failed to deliver a single “roll-over” trade agreement to replace the 70 or so with the rest of the world that we currently have through the European Union. As for claims that trading on WTO rules only after 29 March would be no problem, as the EU Commission made clear just last week, those very rules would require the European Union to treat the United Kingdom as it treats other non-EU WTO members. International law would then inevitably require a hard border on the island of Ireland. It is simply dishonest to blame the Irish Government for that. The chosen WTO rules of the Brexiteers would require a hard border. The United Kingdom’s businesses and, importantly, services would face the loss of their European Union and other markets, with no prospect of finding replacements in protectionist economies such as the US, India and China.

The Labour leadership also appears fundamentally to misunderstand the impact of European Union state aid and competition rules. As the IPPR has made clear, those rules would not in fact prevent an active industrial policy or, indeed, renationalisation of rail or water, or public ownership stakes and interventions elsewhere.

There are frightening real-world economic, security and social consequences if Parliament is unable to get a grip and offer people the opportunity to decide whether this sort of Brexit is the future they really want. The Brexiteers never explained that people would be poorer and less secure. They dishonestly claimed that we could leave and keep all the benefits of remaining. Why should a narrow victory in a referendum two and a half years ago give Brexiteer fanatics the right to drive the country over a cliff? It is inherent in a democracy that voters should have the chance to change their minds. Labour leaders, please note: more than 75% of Labour Party members and two-thirds of Labour voters currently support a people’s vote. Meanwhile, Parliament must stop at all costs the catastrophe of a no-deal Brexit.

Brexit: Negotiations

Lord Hain Excerpts

Thursday 24th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Callanan]

I am not sure I want to give from the Dispatch Box advice to Wetherspoons on its purchasing policies. I hope it will continue to serve its customers well, and I hope it will continue to make a profit. I say to my noble friend that no deal is not our preferred outcome, but as I said earlier it is the legal default. The best way to avoid no deal is to vote for a deal.

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords, does the Minister really think that cheap brandy from Australia is better than French brandy? While he is at it, does he agree that,

“free trade under the World Trade Organisation”,

as proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, would mean a hard border on the island of Ireland under WTO rules and under EU rules?

[Lord Pearson of Rannoch]

My Lords—

Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration

Lord Hain Excerpts

Wednesday 9th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hain (Lab)]

My Lords, what a fascinating speech to follow.

Speaking in support of my noble friend’s Motion, I refer to the paper by the European Research Group and Global Britain, entitled Fact—NOT Friction, which insists that all the warnings about a no-deal Brexit are mere myths. It claims that the European Union has promised us tariff-free trade, so we can have our cake and eat it, citing in support the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Although he did in indeed propose, on 7 March 2018, that the parties should,

“aim for a trade agreement covering all sectors and with zero tariffs on goods”,

any reading of his speech shows that that was a clear reference to the long-term aspiration of a UK-EU free trading agreement under WTO rules, which will, of course, take years to negotiate. It would follow a deal taking effect after 29 March, not no deal. Tusk also made clear that such an agreement,

“will not make trade between the UK and the EU frictionless or smoother. It will make it more complicated and costly than today, for all of us. This is the essence of Brexit”.

Whatever the fantasies of the ERG-type Brexiteers, therefore, once we leave the EU without a deal, WTO non-discrimination rules mean that the EU will be obliged to treat the UK as it treats other non-EU WTO members—not, as has been implied, like the remaining 27 EU countries—unless and until a free trade agreement is in place.

As a European Union member, the UK gains from around 70 additional free trade agreements with non-EU countries such as Japan and Canada which, in a no-deal Brexit, would also be lost. The Department for International Trade has made no real progress in persuading each of these countries to agree a rollover of the UK’s current deals as part of the EU. To encourage potential foreign inward investment, a prior UK-EU agreement will need to be in place, so that third countries will know what, if any, EU market access they can achieve from the UK as a platform into the European Union. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada, despite being the European Union’s deepest free trade agreement yet, covering most goods, has little to offer on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy and 45% of our exports. This agreement took over seven years to negotiate and is still not fully in force.

The EU, with which we have a trade surplus in services, would have no obvious incentive to grant significant openings on services to the UK in a free trade agreement, not least because, under WTO rules, the EU would then be obliged to make similar offers to other countries with which it already has bilateral free trade agreements. For example, CETA explicitly states that Canada will benefit from any new services concessions by the EU to other third countries. This is therefore a major disincentive for the EU to make such deals. Even under a deal along the lines of CETA, to minimise the friction of trading with the EU single market, the UK would need to maintain European regulations in all the relevant sectors, as, for example, do EEA members Norway and Iceland. We would need to replace over 30 EU regulatory bodies and arrange legally workable memorandums of understanding between them and their EU counterparts. This is a process which, again, would take years and be very expensive.

In the event of no deal, the European Commission’s own package of 14 contingency measures, which are allowed by the WTO, specifically warns of delays to the transport of goods—hence the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury’s warnings—because of the need for checks on all UK livestock exports and the application of customs duties and taxes on goods moving between the UK and EU.

These minimalist EU measures were taken, as the Commission explained, to maintain the integrity of the single market and customs union—relating to, for example, financial services, aviation and haulage. These and other sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food and drink, data flows and the car industry, to name but a few, would still face significant disruption and legal uncertainty. All this would have severe implications for competitiveness, for our GDP, and for trade and foreign investment in the UK, especially for advanced manufacturing operating just-in-time systems.

These Brexiteers claim that the UK already trades with non-EU members on WTO terms alone. On the contrary, because of its membership of the EU, the United Kingdom benefits from numerous side agreements with countries such as the US and China that go well beyond WTO provisions. In fact, no EU member trades on WTO terms only; all have at least one bilateral or regional trade agreement with other countries, especially their nearest neighbours.

If we leave the EU with no deal on 29 March, therefore, only WTO terms will apply, including a hard Irish border with its political danger and economic damage. The UK will also lose the leverage of the EU bloc—the richest and biggest in the world—and will be weaker, not stronger, in future trade negotiations. A diminished UK will face the unenviable choice of Donald Trump’s “America First” United States or the repressive and expansionist dictatorship of China.

The consequences for citizens, consumers and businesses will be nothing short of catastrophic. In some leave-voting areas, lives will be blighted for generations. The no-deal Brexiteers should come clean and stop peddling myths that all will be fine. It will not. As the noble Lord, Lord Patten of Barnes, told the BBC on Monday, their agenda is “snake oil”. No deal must be blocked at all costs and I believe that a people’s vote should be supported to save the country from the ERG-aligned Brexiteers, who have no viable plan of their own, yet still insist on charging on recklessly.