Economy: Bank of England Forecasts

Lord Fowler Excerpts

Wednesday 13th May 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Wood of Anfield (Lab)]

My Lords, pursuing the Question put by the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, one of the—[Inaudible]—about the scale and speed of recovery. It said that growth could hit 15% for 2021 as a whole. Does the Minister not agree that inducing excessive optimism about the speed of the recovery has its own risks, and does she agree with the former Chancellor, Sajid Javid, who said today that a— [Inaudible]—unlikely?

[The Lord Speaker (Lord Fowler)]

I am afraid that we got only part of your question. Minister, can you make something of that?

[Baroness Penn]

I will attempt to do so. In terms of optimism, or otherwise, about the speed of the recovery, the OBR’s and Bank of England’s scenarios are not those of the Government. We do not make our own economic forecasts. I would also point out that they are scenarios rather than forecasts, and the Bank of England said that the risk in its scenario was probably more on the downside. The Government are focused on providing support now for jobs and businesses so that they are protected during this time and so that we can recover as quickly and as safely as possible.

[Baroness Penn]

I believe that the Bank’s scenario took into account the gradual unwinding of the lockdown and of the support schemes matched to it, completed by the end of quarter 3. However, the Bank makes its own decisions about any scenarios or forecasts that it produces to inform its own decision-making and policy-making.

[The Lord Speaker]

My Lords, the time allowed for this Question has now elapsed. I apologise to the two Members who were unable to get in but I thank all noble Lords. That concludes the Virtual Proceedings on Oral Questions. The Virtual Proceedings will resume at 12.30 pm and, until then, stand adjourned.