EU: UK Membership

Lord Davies of Stamford Excerpts

Thursday 24th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Davies of Stamford (Lab)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Wrigglesworth, on a very confident and able maiden speech. It is great to have someone of that experience and background in our House. We look forward to future contributions. I congratulate also the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, on managing to get time for us to debate this matter today—a lot of time, actually six minutes per person; a good deal better than we have ever had before.

It is almost unimaginable to me that any sane or responsible person would want to take his or her country on economic grounds out of the world’s largest trading bloc; a trading bloc which other countries are queuing up to join, which no one has ever wanted to leave and with which those who cannot join for geographical reasons are desperate to sign a free trade agreement—which is very much a second or third best. But so it is. We have people who are entirely sane and responsible—for example, the noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, and the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes—who have been taking that line today.

I believe it is sometimes useful for these debates to be responsive and reactive so I am going to spend all of my time addressing some of the points that they have made. First, the point of the noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, has already been answered. If this country were to remain as part of the single market in any form, it would, of course, continue to have to make budgetary contributions, so there would be no saving. The suggestion of the noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, that we do not have access to the single market, is a very dramatic suggestion and I think one that he might want to think through.

It is possible to talk all day about how many of the 3 million to 4 million jobs in this country which depend on the single market we would lose if we immediately left the single market. Obviously, there would be some and the number would tend to accumulate over time. We will never agree on what that number might be, but it would be a number, certainly. As the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, said, an even greater threat is the future loss of investment, which we would have if we stayed in the single market, which we would not have if we left the European Union. I think that would be quite dramatic. It would be dramatic in manufacturing. It is difficult to see how we would get any manufacturing at all, where manufacturing is generally producing for more than 50 million to 60 million people. People will want to put in a new facility at great expense only where they can address the single market. They would certainly not come here.

However, the loss is not merely to manufacturing. I want to read to the House briefly from the evidence given by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, the two biggest investment banks in the world, to the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards on this subject. They are quoted in the excellent note we have had from the Library as saying:

“We believe that a key risk to London’s retaining its status as a financial hub is an exit by the UK from the European Union. In common with financial institutions across the City our ability to provide services to clients and engage in investment activities throughout Europe is dependent on the passport that London-based firms enjoy to operate on a cross-border basis within the Union. If the UK leaves, it is likely that the passport will no longer be available, thereby forcing firms that wish to access EU markets to move their operations to within those markets”.

It could not have been put more clearly. It is also quite clear that what they are talking about is being a full member of the single market—a full member of the regulatory system or structure. That is what they want, otherwise business will move across the water to the continent. If we ignore such a warning, I think that we are being anything but sane or responsible.

How is it that intelligent people such as the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, come to a different view? She is not one of those people whom one can dismiss as being driven by some sort of primitive emotion—the kind of people who get a kick out of waving flags and telling foreigners to go to hell. There are such people in our country but the noble Baroness is undoubtedly not one of them, so I shall try to address some of the points that she raised.

She made a number of very interesting points. Like many Eurosceptics, she is becoming a little more sophisticated. They are saying, “Maybe we wouldn’t go for a deal like Switzerland or Norway because clearly that would involve us becoming”—my phrase, not theirs—“a kind of satrapy of Brussels. We really would be ruled by Brussels then”. That is the rhetoric you get from the Daily Mail today, but that would be the reality because we would have no role whatever in the decision-making structure and no chance of making our views known and influencing events, yet we would have to implement the legislation that came from Brussels. That would not be an intelligent thing to do, and the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, thinks that she could do better.

Indeed, a Eurosceptic friend of mine—a former Conservative Minister with whom I have been discussing Europe for 20 years—said to me the other day, “We could do better than Switzerland and Norway”. I asked how and he said something very similar to what the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, has said. He replied, “We’ve got great power because we have a balance of payments deficit with the European continent—with the other members of the EU—so we could really put the pressure on them and cut off their exports to the UK”. I said, “So what you are actually planning is to declare war not merely on the EU but on the WTO—on the international trading system”. He did not really have an answer to that. I do not think that it is a practical possibility. It is extraordinary to think that we would leave the EU with all the risks involved to go into some uncertain future.

There is a fundamental error in what the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, said about the rest of the world. She seemed to think that there is a trade-off in our trade with the rest of the world and the single market in the sense that, if you have more of the one, you have less of the other. In fact, there is a negative trade-off: if you have more of the one, you have more of the other. The whole point of the single market is that with a greater specialisation within that market, the greater competitiveness that emerges as a result of that specialisation, the economies of scale and the longer production runs, you are more competitive outside the EU. Therefore, far from the EU being an incubus for us in developing non-EU markets, our presence in it is actually a major gain. That is a very important point which should not be forgotten.

I have very little time left in which to speak but I want to say that it seems that we have a difficult and very risky decision to take. It would be extraordinarily irresponsible for us, as a country, to make a decision which could have enormous costs without being absolutely clear about what we were going forward into. Some of the things that have been said today about the Tim Congdon and Patrick Minford studies simply do not stand up to scrutiny. It is quite clear that we would continue to have some regulatory costs and that is not being taken into account.

I am getting signals from the Front Bench and so I shall wind up. Once again, I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Shipley, for giving us the opportunity to have this debate.