Ukraine (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Coaker Excerpts

Thursday 6th March 2025 Grand Committee

[Lord Hogan-Howe (CB)]

My Lords, I speak not as an expert in any of the military or diplomatic matters that noble Lords have spoken about but as someone with some experience in security and a growing frustration with the lack of commitment from Governments on both sides to prioritise defence, which I think many in the country share. I agree that this is an excellent report; it was produced in September 2024, but in the past few weeks the skies have got darker rather than lighter, which only amplifies the conclusions the report draws rather than detracts from them.

I praise this Government for the major change of direction announced by the Prime Minister on 25 February, when he gave a date for the increase to 2.5% of GDP to UK defence, but that was for 2027 and then it will increase during the next Parliament to 3%. I do not believe it is inconsistent to both support that announcement and to say that I think it is too little and will not deliver fighting forces quickly enough for reasons that I hope to set out. I challenge whether 2.5% is growth. I think there is some evidence that it is in fact filling the gaps we have, rather than being the growth it is being portrayed as. I think that is inconsistent and does no one any favours.

My first concern is that we are not yet using clear language to explain to the public the danger that we and Europe are facing. It seems that we have tempered our approach until now in an attempt not to antagonise the bear at our door. The problem is that Russia has taken this as a sign of our weakness, not our strength. Churchill knew a little about how to motivate people and a country. He appealed to the emotions with a clear analysis, a plan of action and speeches that the public heard and understood. In that respect, I commend President Macron yesterday evening, who was starting to speak in a language that people may start to think is making a difference. This is genuinely not a political point. I think the public need to know that this will cost money, and it may yet cost lives.

I do not believe that people join our Armed Forced and entirely consider the decision. They may lose their life; they may lose their life chances or be left physically and psychologically diminished should they have to fight. They will fight for their countries, families and way of life if they feel that they must. Improved efficiency in our recruiting only makes the process quicker and cheaper. Politics can help it deliver people and fighters.

Ironically, since 2022, as Russia walked into Ukraine, our Armed Forces have got smaller, at a time when all our Governments had been saying they were getting bigger. People can see this inconsistency. This report makes clear that our industrial and economic base is unprepared to produce the armaments we need at the speed we require. The Government must help manufacturers fire the furnaces and they must know how much money will be spent on our defence, exactly what is needed and when. Then they can tool up, skill up and invest in research to defend our country, support our friends and defeat an enemy.

Many of the weapons systems have very long lead times of production. Just one example is the production of warships. The noble Lord, Lord West, is not here today; I guess that he would have talked about frigates—

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

I can feel his presence.

[Lord Hogan-Howe (CB)]

We probably ought to name one of them after him. But they do not grow on trees; they do not arrive in do-it-yourself kits and Amazon has no Prime delivery options. It takes a while. We will also need strategic reserves of raw materials if we are going to build these things and make sure that we can deliver what we have promised.

I mention in passing one domestic issue, which should not be forgotten. It was alluded to a little earlier. Some of the home security will also need to be enhanced. Our police counterterrorist units presently focus on extreme Islamism and right-wing terrorism. They will, in the future, also have to concentrate on counterespionage. That is of course something that the security services do but, when it comes to action—somebody has to lock them up, put them before a court or do whatever we have to do—there will need to be significant resources following them around and, at some stage, taking them out.

I also remark on our special constabulary, which are another form of reserves. They are there for the police and there are fewer than 20,000 at the moment. If the police go to war, somebody has to backfill and that was their intention. They are volunteers; they are not paid. They are not an expensive option, but they can help. It means that those police officers who could be released, could be released quicker.

As of today, we have not started any order processes, as far as I am aware. It will not be until at least the summer after the defence review by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson. I want to put a challenge in here because the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, made this point and I thought it was a really good one. We are waiting for the review from the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, which of course is sensible. I just worry, is there not some military leader in this country who knows already what we need? Surely somebody knows that we need to double the tanks, triple the Navy or whatever else. The defence review can pull this together but, if we are waiting for another three or four months, that will then be the start of a very long procurement process others have already alluded to. I worry that, if we take too many things in incremental, logical, stepped phases, others will speed past us. We know who we are talking about in that respect.

Russia has already invaded Ukraine, and it obviously threatens Moldova and Lithuania, so I ask the Government this: when will they press the procurement button for all the reasons everybody has talked about today because there will be a time lag when we decide to do it? It is time to send a symbolic message to Russia. Poland did: it is building an army, a military, of 300,000. Announcing 3% in three years is not a very strong message to me. What is ours? I have not heard it yet. Even when we have spent this money, what is it going to do? The time for gentle prose has passed. The time for action has started. This report is about the events in Ukraine, but it is really about the defence of the UK. I think we have heard enough to know that we need to do something now.

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[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

Well, I hope I do not have to answer the last question.

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

Anyway, I first declare an interest: my son-in-law is in the Mercian Regiment in the reserves, and it would obviously be inappropriate for me not to mention that, as I will mention reserves in much of what I say.

May I also say what a pleasure and privilege it is to be in a debate? I think the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, mentioned that not many people may watch these debates; I can assure her that they are read far and wide, and the importance of what we say here should not be underestimated by those who are part of our great family, but also by others who perhaps do not have the same intent. It is important for us to remember the significance of the remarks that are made here.

I just say to the noble Lords, Lord Balfe and Lord Skidelsky, that it is of great significance and strength that, in this Parliament, within the legal framework of our country, anybody is free to make the comments that they wish to make without fear or favour. Although I did not agree with some of the points that they made, I am proud to be part of a Parliament where they can express those opinions.

It is also important to remind ourselves, before I come to the report of the noble Lord, Lord De Mauley, of the significance of the debate that we are having, as it reminds us all that our country, virtually unanimously, has been proud to support and continues to support Ukraine. That is great, and something that our country can be complimented on. I know that, across Europe and beyond, other countries look to us with that pride as well.

It is also important to restate that the vast majority of our country understands that the fight in Ukraine is our fight as much as theirs, and that their front line is our front line. With that, I am very grateful to the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, for the significant support that she gave to me when she was a Minister and I was in His Majesty’s Opposition, and in speaking for the Opposition now; and to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, from the Liberal Democrat Benches; and all those from the Cross Benches and across Parliament for their general support for what we are doing in Ukraine. For those who read our debates, it is of huge significance and reminds them that there is no weakening of our resolve to continue with that struggle. Whatever the debate on the level of defence spending, we continue to spend billions of pounds a year to support that endeavour. That is really important context.

I take absolutely the point by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, in his interesting and challenging speech, that, whatever commitments we make, we should make sure that we see them through. Wherever that leads us in the future, that is a very real and proper challenge to make to Government and Ministers. I take that very much on board and thank him for his comments.

What an outstanding report this is from the noble Lord, Lord De Mauley. We will come back to its title, Ukraine: A Wake-up Call, because it speaks to not only our nation but Europe as a whole. It makes all sorts of points—far too many for me to address—but the fundamental point is that, whoever had won the US election, Europe would have had to do more. Although we can look to the election of President Trump and some of the comments that have been made, if Kamala Harris had won then she would have been demanding—maybe not in the same way or to the same extent—that Europe do more as well. That is why this title is so important, because it reflects a growing reality on the continent of Europe. As the noble Lord, Lord Soames, so aptly put it, the committee could have called it “An Alarm Call”. The events of the past couple of months have demonstrated the need for greater urgency, speed and determination to take the necessary action.

One of the most important things that comes through in the report, which I have discussed with the noble Baronesses, Lady Goldie and Lady Smith, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, in other debates, is that we have to rebuild deterrence. We need to understand that stopping war often means having to prepare for it. That is an unwelcome and difficult truth but, in today’s world, it is the reality.

The report also recognises, in a way that has not always been apparent, the changing nature of war and that we need to wake up to that. The noble Lord, Lord De Mauley, the committee—many of whom are here—and those who have worked with it should be commended on this, given that the whole country is starting to wake up to that too. It pointed out the need, as many noble Lords have done, for homeland defence, defence of critical national infrastructure and the importance of the reserves. All those things are really significant. Many noble Lords have heard me say in the Chamber that, if anyone had been saying this two, four, six or eight years ago, they would have been looked at with disbelief for talking about the need for us to understand how we develop homeland defence. That is a criticism of all of us, but it is a fact. The report seeks to do that.

The noble Lord, Lord De Mauley, asked me about the strength of the reserves. The official figure I have, from 1 November 2024, is that there are 32,080 trained and untrained reserves. He also mentioned the importance of the defence industry. The wake-up call is not only for the military but for the defence industry. We are seeking, through our new defence industrial strategy, to include SMEs and some of the businesses that the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and other noble Lords mentioned, to set up new structures and to try to ensure that we do not have a situation where our stockpiles are not big enough and, frankly, we cannot restock them quickly enough. We cannot be satisfied with that. Part of our response is to work with industry and to upskill, but we are also making an organisational change in the Ministry of Defence to set up the new National Armaments Director to accelerate the changes we need.

We are also trying to become a closer partner, as the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, mentioned, on the European defence industrial strategy to rebuild relationships there. That is not being met with universal approval from every European country, although many see the advantages of it. It is in Europe’s interest and ours; I know that we are not in the European Union, but co-operating on the defence industry in a way that allows interoperability is in both our interests and, strategically, the right thing to do. We have to find a way of overcoming that.

I say to my noble friend Lord Liddle that, yes, we are working to 2.5%. Another really important figure is the 3% in the next Parliament. There will always be debate about defence spending, as we have heard today. The noble Lord, Lord Alderdice, made points about a whole-of-society response and homeland defence. I agree with him on that.

The noble Baroness, Lady Coussins, talked about the importance of alliances across the world. I agree with that. Notwithstanding the debate about ODA money being used for defence, she will no doubt be pleased that I, as a Minister with some responsibility for defence and diplomacy, have been to Africa and South America. We are seeking to go to those countries to further develop and maintain our relationships with them and to establish and develop relationships in other parts of the world. Notwithstanding overseas development assistance, those countries are asking for our military assistance—not necessarily with divisions or thousands of fighter aircraft but with the doctrine, training and the confidence we can give them in tackling the terrorist threats and destabilising impacts in their own countries.

The most incredible example of that which I have seen recently is the work that we are doing in Nigeria, a close ally of ours. I saw a small number of personnel working with its people to help and support them, with the threat that they face from Islamic State West Africa and Boko Haram, to try to stabilise their country. That was helping with development and security as well; the noble Baroness is right to make that point.

The noble Lord, Lord Grocott, talked about the size of the Army. Obviously, the defence review will have something to say about that. We are really trying to tackle the recruitment and retention crisis that he mentioned; we implemented straight away the recommendations of the Armed Forces’ Pay Review Body and we recognise the skills agenda. There are a significant number of vacancies in the existing defence budget for skilled workers. We must find a way to tackle that, including by improving conditions, changing childcare arrangements and improving housing. We have changed the contract—I had better get this the right way round—from Capita to Serco to try to improve that. This will not have an immediate effect, but we are trying. The noble Lord asked in particular about the cyber route. We are creating a new cyber route for people with those skills because, without being rude, we are not sure that the current route would be open to some of those recruits if they were trying to get into the Marines, but we need those people.

The noble Lord, Lord Howell, mentioned the importance of the reserves. He is absolutely right to make the point about the importance of the interconnectivity between different regions of the world and how conflicts in different parts of the world impact on each other. I saw this when I went to Vietnam; it has been very unsettled by the closer relationship between Russia and China, which has changed its view.

I very much support the points made by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, about NATO and the importance of the US relationship. Whatever our view, that relationship is really important. Taking up the point from the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, this is really difficult as a Government seeking to bring about a meaningful peace as soon as possible in Ukraine—working with Ukraine to deliver that, so that it is at the table, and then trying to get the US to support that. As the noble Lord pointed out, you cannot do that simply by responding to every single headline in the paper, every single tweet that is put out or every single comment that is made.

As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, pointed out, the US relationship is absolutely vital to us. Of course it is changing, and we see what is taking place, but it should not be taken as weakness or as not understanding what is happening. Diplomatic solutions sometimes have to be sought carefully, constructively and quietly. That is real leadership. The easy thing would be just to join in with everything that is being said, and no progress would be made, but I take the point by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, on that.

I understand the point by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, about rearming and spending: the need for rearmament is very important. My noble friend Lord Anderson made the point about the US and the importance of that relationship. The noble Lord, Lord Soames, talked about the importance of NATO; whether or not we have a Minister for Civil Defence, we understand the importance of homeland defence and the need for us to step up. It is really important.

My noble friend Lord Sahota mentioned changing geopolitics, and the noble Baroness, Lady Fraser, mentioned the importance of resources and reserves. I am going to meet the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster, who I think is a major-general in the reserves—I hope he is not a lieutenant-general—in due course with respect to that. I congratulate the noble Baroness’s daughter on her service.

I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Alton: we are seeking to accelerate what we do about frozen Russian assets. We are using £2.26 billion as a new loan to Ukraine which, as he knows, is the profits of the assets and he is talking about the actual assets. We will do what we can with respect to that.

The noble Lord, Lord Risby, was right to point out the need to think about the rebuilding of Ukraine. I say this to the noble Baroness, Lady Helic: as she knows, I was in Bosnia recently, trying to show that the UK Government understand the importance of what was happening in Bosnia, the undermining of the Dayton agreement and our need to consider what to do with respect to Operation Althea and all the various other things, as she well knows.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Hogan-Howe. He will be pleased to have noticed that the single intelligence account, which is the money for the services, went up by £340 million between 2023-24 and 2025-26 to try to tackle some of the very real points that he made.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Shinkwin, for the points that he made, and the noble Baroness, Lady Tyler, on the importance of SMEs.

The noble Lord, Lord Roberts, used Churchill’s words to inspire us. We need to continue to remind ourselves that Churchill, Ernie Bevin and all these people from the past must be looking down on us and thinking, “I hope they rediscover some of the spirit that we had,” to deal with the challenges that we face.

On the noble Lord, Lord Tyrie, and the need for Europe to stand up and the EU and the UK standing together, I say absolutely. I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Fall, for the points she made about working across the world and Generation Z. I am sorry that I am going on, but I ask noble Lords to stay with me for a minute or two. On Generation Z, I agree with the points she made, but the only thing I would say is on the contradiction that every single remembrance and military event I go to is packed with young people. Cadets but also other people are attending remembrance services, walking around and being involved. Through that they understand the value of service.

It is great that the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky—and, indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, as well—says what he did. I understand the points he made and the challenge he made to all of us to understand it and what it means for our policy.

I have said what I did about the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton. I again thank the noble Baronesses, Lady Smith and Lady Goldie, very much for the overall support that they have given.

I am going to read out just one thing on nuclear, and I do not want to get this wrong for obvious reasons. It is a very important point. I will read from the actual notes because it is carefully phrased. The conflict in Ukraine is not a nuclear matter for the UK. However, we have assigned our nuclear deterrent to the defence of NATO since 1962, and we remain ready to deter threats to the UK and against our NATO allies.

The UK’s nuclear deterrent is completely operationally independent. Only the Prime Minister can authorise the use of our nuclear weapons, even if they are deployed as part of a NATO response. The UK has a long-standing close relationship with the US on all defence nuclear issues, which has endured through many changes of government in our two nations. That is all I wish to say about that particular matter, but I hope it is helpful to the noble Baroness, the Committee and everybody else.

I thank the noble Lord, Lord De Mauley, again for his report. It has made a great contribution to the defence and security of our nation and beyond. Thank you very much.