Economic Growth: Public Spending

Debate between Lord Clarke of Nottingham and Lord Livermore

Wednesday 12th February 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am sorry that the noble Lord is not able to support the increases in the national minimum wage; that is a shame to hear. I do not know whether he was able to read the monetary policy report that was published alongside the growth forecast last week, but the Bank of England said that the combined effects of the measures in the Autumn Budget are expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75%.

[Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Con)]

The biggest mistake the Government made was during the general election, which they were obviously going to win, when they promised not to raise the basic taxes—income tax, VAT, national insurance for employees and so on—which are the normal toolbox of a Chancellor, so that when they inherited a fiscal crisis, they raised quite the worst possible tax on employers and employees. At the same time, they borrowed billions of pounds more, saying it was not more spending but investment. After this disaster, will the Minister now agree that the new Government have made a financial crisis even worse than it was when they were elected? Will they turn the March Statement into a mini-Budget to try to begin to repair the damage they have done?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

With the greatest respect to the noble Lord, I completely disagree with what he says. His contention is that we should have taxed working people after a cost of living crisis, and after the previous Government froze income tax thresholds and raised taxes on working people by £30 billion. I completely disagree; if that is his contention, I think he is wrong. He also says we were wrong to increase investment in the economy. The IMF has said that the lack of public investment in the economy was one of the major constraints to economic growth, and we have rectified that—so, on that point too, I think he is wrong.

Fiscal Rules

Debate between Lord Clarke of Nottingham and Lord Livermore

Tuesday 29th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Con)]

My Lords, we used to have a rule of Budget purdah in this country for the very good reason that it prevented market speculation in the run-up to the House of Commons hearing the Budget details. Every Chancellor who followed me in office has steadily weakened that and, this year, we have had three months of absolutely absurd semi-debate, with hints, leaks and suggestions from the Government being debated. It began by ruling out any question of raising the four most basic taxes that everybody previously turned to when they needed more revenue, because they share the burden more fairly across the country. This has now accumulated with the Prime Minister deciding, two days before the Budget, that he will take for himself a popular announcement—to some of his Cabinet colleagues and Back-Benchers—that he will ease the fiscal rules on which the Budget is based.

Fortunately, this nonsense has so far had only a slightly dampening effect on investors and markets, but it has had an undoubtedly dampening effect on business activity for the last two or three months. Will the Minister ask his colleagues to consider returning to Budget purdah in future years? If this circus is now to be the pattern for every Budget throughout this Parliament, then, sooner or later, we are going to have market speculation and a financial crisis of the kind that followed Liz Truss’s Budget.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord is far more experienced in these matters than me, and I have the greatest respect for him. He mentioned three types of activity. The first one he mentioned was the manifesto commitments we gave: he mentioned the major taxes and he is absolutely right. In our manifesto, we committed to not increasing taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT. I think it is perfectly right that we do that and specify that in our manifesto. He also mentioned speculation. There has been huge speculation ahead of this Budget around specific taxes which at this Dispatch Box, on multiple occasions, I have been unable to comment on, and I think he will understand why. As for announcements being made ahead of a Budget, that is a perfectly routine thing to do, and it is right that Parliament then has the opportunity to scrutinise those at the appropriate moment.