European Union (Referendum) Bill

Debate between Lord Anderson of Swansea and Lord Kinnock

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kinnock]

I support the amendment. If I can be biblical for a moment, I shall take as my text what no less a person than the Prime Minister said in his Bloomberg speech. He said:

“If we left the European Union, it would be a one-way ticket, not a return”.

There can be few bigger questions ever to present themselves to the British people in this or any other age, certainly in peacetime—questions about war, of course, are characteristically not put to the British people. If that is the dimension of the decision, it is very clear that it must be subject to a full assessment, not as an addendum or an afterthought but as a basic prerequisite of conducting a referendum and a meaningful vote in it.

The reason for that is very straightforward: there is no commercial organisation of any dimension, even quite small concerns, which would begin to undertake any significant shift in its product range, in its marketing, in its location and in a proportionately big investment decision without undertaking a full evidence-based assessment of the impact of taking that decision. It would be an assessment of the impact not just on the firm and its labour force but perhaps on the locality, the environment and on transport needs. Anyone who has been part of such decision-making, as many people in this House, including me, have been, is familiar with the very refined techniques that now exist for undertaking comprehensive and thorough impact assessments. That is what the whole of commerce does. Indeed, it is what the whole of local government does. There can be no significant decision facing any council in this whole country that has any kind of recognisable implication for the community, the budget of the council or the well-being of the citizens that is not subject to rigorous impact assessment, particularly risk assessment. Useful techniques exist for undertaking those exercises in ways that are comprehensible to the citizens of the locality as well as to the decision-makers, executive and elected, in the council.

If we are faced as a country before 2017, or maybe after it under the terms of European Union Act 2011, with this monumental choice whether to book a one-way ticket, not a return—in the words of the Prime Minister—an assessment of impact that is comprehensive, thorough and communicated in understandable language would be a basic, vital requirement.

To the list that exists in the proposed “Referendum condition” clause, which is commendable and touches on most of the issues that would be of significance to people, we could add some more words from the Prime Minister. He said that we would have to think about,

“the impact on our influence at the top table of international affairs … That matters for British jobs and British security”.

It is not a detached, academic consideration of whether we have lost an empire and still seek a role, or anything esoteric at all. He said, rightly, that it matters for British jobs and British security.

We could add that question to the list: can we realise the Prime Minister’s and the Chancellor’s ambition of remaining in the single market, whatever happens to our membership of the European Union? The Prime Minister said that that is the most important single reason for us belonging to the European Union. If that is the case, surely the issue must be examined with great rigour. What would be the impact, that we could assess, on our participation in the single market? The results of that assessment should of course be available to the British people for prolonged discussion and comprehension before they come to casting the fateful vote.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I suspect that there is one other potential impact of deep concern to my noble friend, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and myself: the danger that there will be differential social, economic and environmental effects within different parts of the United Kingdom, irrespective of the Scottish dimension. I hope he would agree that that matter should also be canvassed so that those who live on the periphery of the UK can also be aware of what their vote would mean.

[Lord Kinnock]

I am grateful to my noble friend. We could add a number of matters that absolutely, legitimately and centrally would determine attitudes in any referendum—as I said, whether it is held under the terms of this Bill, the one that succeeds it because this Parliament cannot dictate to the succeeding Parliament, or the terms of the 2011 Act. Of course, as my noble friend said, that is absolutely central.

As the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and my noble friend Lord Anderson will know, I am not in any sense or form a secessionist or nationalist—quite the contrary, I am a unionist in more senses than one. But the fact is that if we were to have a referendum it would be entirely sensible for us to make an arrangement that ensured that its results were acknowledged according to England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland—if it is still part of the United Kingdom, which I dearly hope it will be. That is not in order to create trouble within this United Kingdom but, quite the contrary, so that people could signify their comprehension of the detail of the impact assessment and their calculation of what the real effects of departure could be for the part of the country in which they live and work and which they hold most dear.

I do not want to tire the House with a list of the various concerns that would have to be subject to impact assessment. I simply use what I have said and the illustration provided by my noble friend to further illuminate the argument supporting this amendment. I appeal to the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, to give full recognition to the force of this argument because I know, whatever his enthusiasms about a referendum or our participation in the European Union in future, he would not want Britain to go gentle into what could be a very dark night. He will want to ensure that the British people are in possession of dispassionate analysis and very thorough assessment of what the effect would be of departure from the European Union in order that their vote in a referendum was one of maximum information and, one hopes, wisdom.

That being the case, and respecting the noble Lord, as I do, I hope that he will accept the intellectual, constitutional and political rationale put to him by me and my noble friends in the course of this fairly short debate and be willing to embrace the amendment.