King’s Speech

Lord Anderson of Swansea Excerpts

Wednesday 15th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, I join in welcoming the noble Earl, regretting the departure of the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, and also of course congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Roberts, on what we hope will be a long period in the House.

I begin with a very dangerous thing to do in this House: the first joke mentioned during this debate. That is the very Polish saying: what is the difference between an optimist and a pessimist? A pessimist will say, “Things can’t possibly get worse”; an optimist will say, “Oh, yes they can”. That is highly apposite to the crises in Gaza and in Ukraine which we have been discussing.

There is a very profound difference between the position perhaps 30 years ago, when there was a great deal of optimism and a prevailing mood and vision of things improving with the onward march of democracy, and that of today, with the triumph of strongmen, authoritarianism and indeed illiberalism. Long-standing problems 30 years ago appeared capable of resolution, such as the end of apartheid. I was monitoring the elections in Namibia and indeed in South Africa. Also, we foresaw the end of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. We were hoping too, when we had the Oslo accords, for a great new era in the Middle East. Alas, it was not so. In 1989, the Berlin Wall fell; we had the end of the Soviet empire and the fragmentation of much of the Soviet Union, and indeed a rather fragile democratic Russia which sought accommodation with the West and even with NATO.

But things have changed so much since that time. We had a deal with China on Hong Kong, which appeared to guarantee a democratic future for that territory for 50 years. Now, across the world there is a crisis as old nationalisms reappear. In so far as Ukraine is concerned, after the invasion and the magnificent response, we now have a possible stalemate. Trump may well alter wholly the position of the western response, and Putin awaits a possible Trump victory.

If Trump were to prevail, we would have a Europe threatened and unable to fill that gap. The stakes are high. Clearly, if Russia were to emerge with something it could call victory, the world power balance would change. China would be emboldened in respect of Taiwan. Democracy in the Sahel has suffered as military coups prevail and there is increasing instability. Above all, the crisis in Gaza has shown the danger of a wider Middle East conflict. We have been complacent in imagining that the Abraham accords would lead to a new era and have ignored the cauldron of misery among the Palestinian people. Can anything positive emerge from the shock on Israel?

What is clearly true is that Hamas has the intent of destroying Israel. It has said it would attack Israel again and again, and it is hardly surprising that Israel looks now to Hamas, sees that it has that intention and tries to ensure that it does not have the resources to carry it out. That is the reality facing Israel. Clearly, it demands not unconditional support for Israel but recognition of its dilemma, and that it acts in a proportionate way—however we define that. The shock provides a possible opportunity for peace.

What is sad in the current mixture of crises is that we seem unwilling to look forward in terms of the climate threat, for example. The Government have clearly shown evidence of back-sliding in many key areas on climate. Among other problems is the world population increase, which does not have the prominence it deserves. I welcome what the Government are doing about the empowerment of women, but clearly, we need to do far more.

Looking back over the past 30 years, we see growing disillusion when faced with this witch’s brew of problems. Such is the profound change from the bright vision which we had 30 years ago.