Autumn Budget as it Relates to Wales (Morning sitting)

Debate between Jonathan Edwards and Geraint Davies

Wednesday 7th February 2018 General Committees

[Geraint Davies]

On the Budget’s implications for agricultural trade, is the hon. Member for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr aware that the World Trade Organisation struck down and penalised the EU when it said it would not allow hormone-impregnated beef into the EU? Still, the EU has resisted hormone-impregnated beef. Does he not think that, if we stand alone against the United States and it wants to impose hormone-impregnated beef on Welsh consumers, with the WTO behind it, we will have to like it or lump it?

[Jonathan Edwards]

The hon. Gentleman makes a valid point. The hon. Member for Caerphilly and I were in the United States a few years ago, and we had a very interesting discussion with the food lobby there. I guarantee that it carries a lot of weight, and that is a clear indication of some of the problems we will face in future.

I shall return to the Budget.

Mewn polisi ariannol y mae’r perygl arall. Mae polisi ariannol hynod lac gan y Banc Canolog wedi cynnal yr economi ers 2010, a bydd oes yr arian rhad yn diflannu’n raddol wrth i gyfraddau llog gychwyn ar eu taith tuag at normaleiddio.

Yn ystod y cyfnod hwnnw, daeth twf economaidd i ddibynnu fwyfwy ar wariant gan ddefnyddwyr fel canran o GDP. Bydd methiant i ail-gydbwyso oddi wrth economi a gynhelir gan ddyled cartrefi yn rhwystr sylweddol yn y blynyddoedd i ddod.

(Translation) Monetary policy is another danger. The ultra-loose monetary policy of the central bank has sustained the economy since 2010, and the area of cheap money will gradually be removed as interest rates begin their journey to normalisation. During that period, economic growth has become even more reliant on consumer spending as a percentage of GDP. Failure to rebalance from an economy sustained by household debt will be a significant barrier in years to come.

Personal debt is reaching the level it was at before the great crash of 2008. That should be of great concern to us all.

Mae dirwasgiadau yn dueddol o ddod bob degawd, sy’n golygu, naw mlynedd wedi chwalfa ariannol fawr 2008 ein bod yn nes at ddiwedd y cylch na’i gychwyn. Nid yw’r methiant i neidio’n ôl yn sydyn o’r chwalfa fawr ac i ail-gydbwyso yn sectoraidd a daearyddol, na dibyniaeth yr economi ar beiriant cynnal bywyd polisi arianyddol yn argoeli’n dda at y dyfodol.

(Translation) Recessions tend to come each decade, which means that nine years after the great financial crash of 2008, we are far nearer the end of the cycle than its beginning. The failure to rebound sharply from the great crash, the failure fundamentally to rebalance sectorally and geographically, and the reliance of the economy on the life support of monetary policy do not bode well for the future.

The failure to rebound quickly from the great recession, the failure to rebalance sectorally and geographically, and the decade-long dependence on the life support of ultra-loose monetary policy do not bode well for the future.

O ystyried graddfa’r her, nid yw’r Mesur Cyllid yn addas. Cyn ymdrin â rhai o gymalau’r Mesur hwn, carwn ganolbwyntio ar rai o’r darpariaethau sydd, ysywaeth, ar goll.

Mae model economaidd y Deyrnas Gyfunol a ddilynwyd ers degawdau gan holl bleidiau sefydliad San Steffan wedi ei seilio ar hyrwyddo gweithgarwch a chyfoeth yn Llundain a de-ddwyrain Lloegr. Dylai’r anghydraddoldebau daearyddol o ran cyfoeth fod yn destun cywilydd i wleidyddion San Steffan. Mae naw o’r deg rhanbarth tlotaf yng ngogledd Ewrop yn y wladwriaeth Brydeinig yn ogystal â’r un cyfoethocaf. Yn anffodus, wrth gwrs, mae gorllewin a gogledd Cymru ymysg y tlotaf. Dylai’r Trysorlys fod yn ceisio ymdrin â’r record gywilyddus hon, ac eto does dim yn y mesur cyllid hwn fydd o ddifrif yn mynd i’r afael â’r heriau o’n blaenau.

Efallai mai un o ganlyniadau Brexit fydd y bydd cwmnïau ariannol Dinas Llundain yn adleoli i Baris, Frankfurt a Dulyn. O ystyried hynny, dylai Llywodraeth Prydain ymateb drwy ganolbwyntio ar sectorau economaidd eraill, yn enwedig gweithgynhyrchu. Dylai hyn arwain at symud y pwsylais ymaith o dde-ddwyrain Lloegr i’r cenhedloedd a’r rhanbarthau.

Yn anad dim, dylai Cymru gael y grym cyllidol i lunio ein heconomi ein hunain. Mae’n warthus fod gan yr Alban a Gogledd Iwerddon setliad cyllidol a threthiannol llawer gryfach na Chymru. Oherywdd hyn, bydd economi Cymru dan anfantais sylweddol. Dydw i methu deall pam nad yw gwleidyddion o’r pleidiau Unoliaethol a bleidleisiodd o blaid rhoi mwy o bwerau i’r Alban a Gogledd Iwerddon yn barod i ddarparu ar gyfer ein cenedl ni ein hunain.

Hyd yn oed os ydym yn rhoi i’r neilltu yr anghydraddoldebau cyfansoddiadol, mae’r sefyllfa yn golygu fod Llywodraeth Cymru yn llai abl i ymyrryd yn ein heconomi. Os mai Brexit caled fydd hi, dylid datganoli portffolio cyfan o drethi, gan gynnwys treth teithwyr awyr, treth ar werth a threth gorfforaeth.

Dylai buddsoddi mewn seilwaith gael ei wasgaru’n fwy cyfartal ar draws y wladwriaeth Brydeinig.

(Translation) Considering the scale of the challenge, the Finance Bill is in no way fit for purpose. Before addressing some of the measures in the Bill, I will concentrate on some provisions that are sadly missing. The UK economic model, which has been followed for decades by all the establishment parties in Westminster, is based on promoting activity and wealth in London and the south-east of England. The geographical wealth inequality should be a matter of shame for Labour and all politicians in Westminster. Nine of the 10 poorest regions in northern Europe are in Britain, as well as the richest. Unfortunately, west Wales and north Wales are among the poorest. The Treasury’s overriding aim should be to address that shameful record, but nothing in the Finance Bill will seriously get to grips with the challenges facing us.

One consequence of Brexit might be the relocation of London-based financial companies to Paris, Frankfurt or Dublin. Given that, the British Government should focus on other economic sectors, and manufacturing in particular. That should shift the focus away from London to the nations and regions.

First and foremost, Wales should be empowered to create its own economy. It is disgraceful that Scotland and Northern Ireland have stronger financial settlements than Wales. Given that, the Welsh economy will be at severe disadvantage. I cannot understand why politicians from Unionist parties vote in favour of giving more power to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but are unwilling to do so for our own nation. Putting aside the constitutional imbalances, that means that the Welsh Government are less able to intervene in our economy. If we are to have a hard Brexit, a portfolio of taxes should be devolved, including air passenger duty, VAT and corporation tax.

Infrastructure investment should be more evenly spread across Britain. Why should Welsh taxpayers’ money be spent on English projects?