UK Economy: Post-Referendum Assessment

John Baron Excerpts

Monday 23rd May 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

I look forward to hearing that plausible case when it is made. I look forward to an analysis, supported by leading economists, making that case, but we have not heard it yet. The hon. Gentleman and I agree about our membership of the euro—we always have done—but if we were to single out two politicians in this country perhaps more responsible than anyone else for keeping us outside the euro, I would highlight, from my party, William Hague and, from his party, Gordon Brown, both of whom believe we should remain in the EU.

[Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)]

“Project Fear” has reached new lows. Following the predictions of world war, we now have a forecast of recession equal to that of the great depression should we leave. Does the Minister accept that the Treasury got it absolutely wrong when it forecast an economic shock if we left the ERM and that the Treasury, the OECD, the IMF and even the Bank of England did not see the last recession coming?

[Mr Gauke]

The Treasury—indeed, some of the same civil servants—was involved in making the assessment of the five economic tests that kept us out of the euro. I suggest that my hon. Friend looks carefully at the report. We do not make any claims of the sort he suggests—about it being the greatest depression since the great depression of 1929—but suggest that the “shock” scenario involves the economy shrinking by 3.6% compared with the base, which is the forecast for the next few years. This is actually a very measured, conservative assessment of the impact, but none the less there would be an impact and it would result in 500,000 more people being unemployed than need be the case.

Greece

John Baron Excerpts

Monday 29th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Order. There is still a lot of interest but very little time. I will try to take a few more questions on this statement, but I give notice to colleagues that it will almost certainly not be possible to accommodate everybody. There are swings and roundabouts in these things, as Members know.

[Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)]

Greece reminds us all that one can defy economic logic for only so long. Given that eurozone growth rates are well below global growth rates—in the economic slow lane—and that unemployment rates are that much higher, largely caused by the drive towards economic and political union, what cast-iron safeguards are we negotiating to ensure that we retain our sovereignty such that we do not get drawn into this ever-closer union?

[Mr Osborne]

As my hon. Friend well knows—the Prime Minister was explaining this at the Dispatch Box just an hour or so ago—one of the issues we are seeking to address in our renegotiation is Britain’s involvement in ever-closer union, which is not something that the British people are very comfortable with. I would make the broader observation, which relates both to the UK and to members of the eurozone, that we have to make the European continent, ourselves included, a competitive place to do business. We have to have businesses that can export around the world. We have to be able to make sure that jobs are being created in the European Union. A very important strand of what we are seeking to change in our relationship with the European Union is to make the EU more competitive for all its citizens, Greek as well as British.

Oral Answers to Questions

John Baron Excerpts

Tuesday 16th June 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I do not read The Guardian every single day but I was made aware of that letter. I disagree. The same sort of people were saying the same things five years ago and now we have one of the fastest-growing economies of any major economy in the world. This is not the first thing on which I disagree with the hon. Gentleman. This morning he called for the abolition of the monarchy, so he is making an interesting start to his political career.

[Mr John Baron (Basildon and Billericay) (Con)]

As the economy continues to recover and the deficit falls, will the Chancellor consider increasing funding to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, given that continual cuts under successive Governments have reduced its capacity and its skill base to such an extent that many people are saying that that has hindered our recent foreign policy decisions?