Middle East

Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for introducing the debate and for the comprehensive and very helpful way in which he did so. I declare an interest as a chairman of the Arab-British Chamber of Commerce, and other interests listed in the Register.

As the noble Lord said, the Arab spring impacted directly on some countries in the region through changes of government, while in others the impact was less obvious. However, no one should underestimate the indirect political and social effect that is obvious throughout the whole region. From Tunisia and Morocco in the Maghreb, through the Levant—most obviously in Libya, Egypt and Syria—and certainly in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine, we see that impact. We see it perhaps in less obvious ways in the Gulf states, with the great difficulties in Bahrain, and it is certainly also felt in Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and, perhaps most importantly, Saudi Arabia.

Generalities are always dangerous. We all know that these countries, tied as they are by links of language and culture, are none the less very different—often in religion, with the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam, but also in customs, social mores and, most clearly, in wealth.

One very obvious political development stands out. It is the increased authority of the collective organisations: the Arab League and the Gulf Co-operation Council. The decisive action of the Arab League over Libya was very welcome, and the effect of its decision at the United Nations to call for the protection of the people of Benghazi effectively opened the way for Libya to begin its path to political development and democracy. The Arab League similarly led the call for the protection of Syrian civilians against a ruthless regime, but Syria’s regime is better organised and resourced than Gaddafi’s regime ever was, so the Arab League’s efforts have been frustrated at the Security Council by China and by the client relationship that Syria enjoys with Russia. None the less, the Arab League has been united, decisive and clear in the leadership that it has offered, and that is to be welcomed. Similarly, the Gulf Co-operation Council has come into its own in relation to Yemen with the plan to remove President Saleh and to try to bring Yemen out of its chaotic and still, sadly, rather lawless state towards a more stable future.

As chairman of the Arab-British Chamber of Commerce, I see the effect of these political developments on trade and economic activity. Trade in Egypt has been very seriously affected, the Egyptian economy is in real trouble, and the people who hoped for so much are becoming restless at the lack of political and economic progress, as the recent demonstrations in Cairo and elsewhere have shown. One of the most worrying and saddest developments has been the sporadic outbreaks of violence towards the minority Coptic Christian community. The overwhelming majority of Muslims deplore this development, but the Coptic community is anxious and watchful about its future.

Tunisia’s trade, particularly in tourism, has been affected, but the political situation is now settling down, as the Minister said, and the elections will lead to a new constitution and further elections next year, but it needs our continuing support, and I hope the Minister can tell us more about what our Government are doing to support the country that led the way with the jasmine revolution.

By contrast, Libya, frankly, had little or no civil society and very few public institutions. As the Minister said, the elections in June will lead to a constitutional settlement followed by further elections next year. Libya has one huge advantage: oil, and therefore wealth. There have been over 10 trade delegations between the UK and Libya in the past six months, mostly concentrating on health but some on financial institutions and on organising the oil industry for the benefit of the people.

That brings out one of the great contrasts of the region: wealth and poverty. There is Saudi Arabia, with over 25 per cent of the world’s oil and a population of 28 million, embarking on a huge development programme. There is Qatar, a tiny country with only 300,000 nationals but with the highest per capita income in the world, which is investing in everything from football to art. There are the emirates, with Abu Dhabi arguably developing even greater confidence than Dubai. These countries sit alongside Egypt, which has 80 million people, many of whom are illiterate, with extremes of huge personal wealth and abject personal poverty, and Jordan, with a well educated population but with no oil and a real and pressing need for sources of energy and water.

It is arguably Egypt and Jordan that have kept the Arab and Palestinian understandings with Israel stable and constant in the past decades. It is Egypt and Jordan that have been the mainstays of the peace process in the region, difficult as it has been, uncertain and violent at times, but with no outright, full-scale hostilities. However, Egypt may not be able to go on delivering this role if a Government are elected with a democratic mandate to change their stance on Israel, and if Jordan cannot stabilise its economy and deliver for its people, its courageous leadership will come under increasing pressure with unknown consequences.

However, it is the growing concern about Iran that many Arabs focus upon, particularly in the Gulf. This stems not only from uncertainty about Iran’s nuclear ambitions but from its bilateral relationships in the region, particularly its support of the Alawite leadership in Syria. It is, of course, also a matter of concern that it continues to support Hezbollah’s activities in many countries: destabilising Yemen, going through Syria and into volatile Lebanon.

The Minister rightly concentrated on Syria. We support the huge efforts of the international community to stop the appalling regime and its brutalising, torturing and killing of its citizens, some as young as 11 years old. However the question of what happens next in Syria should concern us all. Iran would fight to maintain its influence and Hezbollah is well entrenched and will not give up easily, so can the Minister tell us what our Government are doing to liaise with Arab countries on what the future holds for Syria internally and on its place in the international community?

In virtually all countries of the region, there is an enormous and growing problem: a huge population of young people. For example, 60 per cent of Saudis are aged under 25. These young people are equipped with the instant communications of the modern day through social networking, and that implies everything about being able to get their voices heard. These young people need jobs, and the UN has calculated that the region needs around 100 million more jobs by 2020 to keep it anything like stable. That should concern us all because young people of the region want worthwhile and fulfilling futures as much as young people in this country, and they deserve worthwhile and fulfilling futures as much as our young people.