EU Referendum Rules

Baroness Stuart of Edgbaston Excerpts

Monday 5th September 2016 Westminster Hall

[Dr Rupa Huq (Ealing Central and Acton) (Lab)]

Nearly 17,500 people in Ealing Central and Acton signed this petition and 72% of my constituents wanted to remain, so I am here on their behalf. When the enormity of the result set in on that night—I remember that the rest of the country did not go the same way—I was saying to people that if there were a vote on the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, I would have no hesitation in voting against, but we are not talking about that today. We are talking about this petition, which states that any referendum should have a 60% vote one way or the other and that there should be a 75% turnout. In answer to that, the Government have already said that the referendum was a democratic exercise in which 33 million people had their say and that the goalposts cannot be moved afterwards. I accept that logic. We cannot rerun a football match if we do not get the result we want. I was in Iceland this summer, and the people had the match ball from that horrible game just so they could rub salt into the wounds of English holidaymakers.

I accept all that. There is no parallel or precedent for what we have done. People say that 2016 is one of those years that proves the curse, “May you live in interesting times.” There have been a lot of celebrity deaths: David Bowie; Alan Rickman, who lived in Acton; and Muhammad Ali. Many of my constituents are going through a grieving process, and the saddest thing of all is “Britain in the EU, RIP.” In life, the probability of death is always one, but many of my constituents feel that the referendum result was not inevitable. The referendum was meant to put a lid on the issue and put it to bed. The previous Prime Minister was cowed by his own party’s internal politics, and this was meant to signal a full stop, but it feels as if we have uncorked a genie from a bottle, opened Pandora’s box or opened a can of worms—pick a cliché. The consequences are much wider ranging than any normal piece of legislation, because 40 years of law making will have to be undone, which will not be an easy process. There are two new Government Departments for a start.

We have all heard anecdotes and stories. I spoke to the head of Grange Primary School this morning, and he said that the day after the referendum parents, rather than children, from the settled EU population were in tears and fearing the worst. They thought that people would say, “Go home now.” Apparently things have not been as bad as they thought, but business people have lost contracts. We have a lot of Japanese residents in my seat, and many of the Japanese companies for which they work are saying that they will take their wares elsewhere. We are where we are.

I campaigned to remain, and I am the sort of person who is into building bridges rather than constructing walls, unlike Donald Trump in America. I was disappointed by the result, and I have to accept that the sky has not fallen in, yet. There is an argument that referendums are quite un-British. Why did we have this referendum at all? Some people in my party blame our current leader, but if there is one person whose door we can lay this at it is the previous Prime Minister. We are not Switzerland. There is an argument that we should not trust experts, and a good weight of expert opinion seems to have gone out of the window. The template seems to have been set in the three-hour statement he made when we came back on the Monday after the referendum. He got three hours of questions on all sorts of different aspects of Brexit, including hate crime and all the economic stuff, and the two responses he seemed to have were, “We must accept the will of the people” and, “That is a matter for my successor.” He seemed to say those two things, in either order, in answer to everything.

We cannot carry on with business as usual because things have been so drastically altered—a new political settlement lies ahead—but some safeguards need to be put in place if we ever have another referendum in this country. Safety valves and safeguards are an absolute necessity, not just a feasible prospect. The thresholds in the petition are quite high: 60% have to vote one way or the other and there has to be a 75% turnout. When he was Prime Minister, the right hon. Member for Witney (Mr Cameron) probably thought that the vote would go the way of his other referendums. The referendum in 2011 on the alternative vote had a turnout of 42%, with 69% voting against, so it would have satisfied one of the thresholds but not the other. There is something in the argument that thresholds would protect us from close calls, but I do not know exactly where we should set the numbers.

[Ms Gisela Stuart (Birmingham, Edgbaston) (Lab)]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Dr Huq]

There is limited time left and I have waited ages, so I would rather not give way. I will talk to my right hon. Friend afterwards.

Any mobile phone contract now has a cooling-off period. There is a sense of buyer’s remorse doing the rounds. In a 72%-in constituency, I have had emails from people saying that they did not realise that leave would win. France bans opinion polls in the run-up to a vote, and we could introduce that safeguard. We are not saying that we should rerun exactly the same question, but we could ban opinion polls in the run-up to a future vote.

Nobody knows what “Brexit means Brexit” means. Members on both sides of the House have mooted the idea of having some sort of accountability process. At a general election both sides have a manifesto with codified promises. Perhaps in future the lead campaigns on both sides could have the same. We have heard that most of the promises were not worth the paper they were written on or the cost of the paint used to write the lies on the side of the bus. I advocate that both sides should have proper manifestos from now on. Yes, 48% voted the wrong way—or the right way, depending on how we look at it—but that cannot really be called a ringing endorsement. Maybe we should have some facts because it seems quite possible to do mendacity in these referendums.

From all the Government’s indications, rerunning a referendum that went the wrong way for our side is not an option but I argue for introducing certain measures. I agree with the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas), who has now left the Chamber—[Interruption.] I am just concluding. This is my last sentence. We should have a referendum on the terms of Brexit, because nobody knew what they were voting on, so I advocate having a referendum on what comes after the negotiations.

I am being told to wind up. There is an American saying: “The people have spoken, the b******s.” In some sense, I feel that way. In short, we remainers are down, but hopefully not out—not yet, anyway.