The UK’s Demographic Future

Baroness Neville-Rolfe Excerpts

Thursday 11th December 2025 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to take part in this important debate and to follow the noble Lord, Lord Faulks. It is, however, an occasion tinged with sadness, because it marks the retirement of one of our most talented, fair, honest and hard-working colleagues, my noble friend Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts. I endorse everything that has been said today about his character and his generosity. He was one of a small band that kept forensic, intelligent and constructive opposition going through the, for us, bleak years of the Blair Government, and his experience of that will be a great loss.

Since I joined the House in 2013, the noble Lord has been a great support and a fount of knowledge for me as I battled with business legislation, including the tricky reforms on pubs as a Minister in the coalition Government. He also made a superb contribution as chair of the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee, as my noble friend Lord Blencathra has already said. That is a body that makes our scrutiny more effective and is incredibly important.

When we sat on the Back Benches together through the Brexit years, we tried to improve the Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill in 2020, wresting back some parliamentary control with a cap on arrivals, or the advertising of vacancies in the UK before they were offered to newcomers, or higher salary thresholds. All these ideas were rejected at that time—wrongly, as is now clear. My noble friend Lord Hodgson’s underlying rationale then was the likely surge in immigration and the impact of that on demand for housing and the consequences for water and nature. On 30 September 2020, he criticised the Home Office for an attitude which essentially said, “Don’t worry; it will be all right on the night”. His measured warnings on demography and his call even then for an office for demographic change were well grounded and admirably unemotional. I am only sorry that he had to be a Cassandra in this respect.

I hope nobody will deny the proposition that demography is a very important subject. It is especially important when populations are changing rapidly, as we have seen in recent years. Indeed, demography, in the form of one of its components—namely, immigration—has for many years been at the top, or near the top, of the subjects that voters deem to be the most important political issues of the day. So UK citizens were fully seized of its importance. They judge correctly. After all, immigration policy—an aspect of demography—was plausibly a principal cause of Brexit and of the rise of Reform, which now leads in the polls, as we have heard. “Take back control” was largely a political response to what was then regarded as large waves of immigration for which nobody had voted or, indeed, been asked to vote.

Unfortunately, Governments, political parties and legislatures have not shown the same clear-headedness as our voters. Indeed, they frequently acted like the proverbial ostrich, determined to see nothing and to direct attention elsewhere. This went on for many years before the very recent reluctant tacit acceptance by all parties, including the party currently in government, that the subject deserved more attention and more action.

I am afraid that, in this process, we in this House have not covered ourselves in glory. When presented by my noble friend Lord Hodgson with the opportunity to consider what was known to be of major importance to many voters, we have instead been content to pretend that much lesser issues deserved more attention. We did not support his proposal for a new office, and we repeatedly turned down his request for a special committee of inquiry on this subject. So, to our shame, we join the ostriches in that.

Today we have the opportunity to set this right by properly and fairly examining the noble Lord’s report, and we should do so. In reading it, I was immediately struck by the stark simplicity of his statistics and the quality of the different contributors. The population grew from 55.9 million in 1971 to 67.6 million in 2022, and of course that has accelerated. The fertility rate, however, has fallen rapidly, from 2.44 in 1970, as the report shows. The most recent figures from the ONS are 1.41 per woman in 2024 in England and Wales—the lowest on record—and 1.25 per woman in Scotland. Unfortunately, as Professor Sefton points out, pro-natal policies do not seem very effective. The most pragmatic response is to reinforce the trend of older workers retiring later. So we need to make that easier and improve the incentives for employers, who tend to discriminate against older workers, as I found when I conducted the review of the state pension age in 2022.

Another worrying statistic, highlighted by Professor Sarah Harper, is that the UK population over 65 is predicted to reach some 25% by the middle of the century, with 2% over 85. That is some 1.5 million people, and it is likely to double within two decades. This means smaller numbers of productive people paying for the non-productive in a country where productivity has already been flatlining since the financial crisis during the last Labour Government.

We know from the work of the OBR how disastrous the increase in the proportion of the elderly will be for the nation’s finances—one reason why I proposed a GDP-related growth cap on pension expenditure in my review. As the report says, we can also learn from Japan, which has a more open attitude to employing older workers. This could have a dramatic effect on the dependency ratio, the UK’s future finances and, indeed, the nation’s health. As those of us who are lucky enough to work in this House know, working has a generally positive effect on health.

Some little-known and puzzling statistics on page 21 of my noble friend’s report are those on national insurance numbers in 2024. It is difficult to see how the 940,000 national insurance numbers—60% for Asian nationals—can be reconciled with the much lower number of work visas that have been issued. My noble friend Lord Hodgson and I quizzed Home Office Ministers on the defects of immigration statistics during the passage of past legislation, but they appeared to have a surprising degree of faith in their statistics and a resistance to looking forward at the future implications. It took several precious years for the establishment to accept that reality. Other important statistics have been mentioned. For example, England has a population of 438 people per square mile and will have a larger population than Germany on current trends. This is highlighted by Professor Michael Clarke in a very interesting contribution on national security, which the noble Baroness, Lady Stuart of Edgbaston, rightly mentioned.

This all leads to the report’s conclusion that there is a problem finding properly based and appropriately focused data to tell us what is going on. It means that there is a strong case for a new body following the precedent of the independent Dutch state commission on demography 2050, as advocated for so eloquently and frequently by my noble friend.

We have a problem, as the report makes clear, in the widely differing levels of acceptability of discussing big strategic decisions. Climate change and net zero have been the subject of extensive debate and have their own well-resourced Climate Change Committee, yet adding 6 million to 10 million more people to our population will not only hasten climate change but will have a major effect on our country, our children and our grandchildren—and, of course, our schools, hospitals, housing and infrastructure.

We also need to get under the skin of net migration. As we discussed in the Budget debate last week, we are now losing many entrepreneurs and more of the young and ambitious because of the weight of taxation and the growing burdens on business ushered in by this Government. Net migration has reduced significantly from its record levels, but in the year to June 2025, we were still seeing 898,000 new arrivals, many of them hard to accommodate here and creating a drain on public expenditure and pressure on benefits. We need to understand this and the social and regional ramifications much better.

In closing, I thank the Leader of the Opposition and his Chief Whip for finding time at last for this important debate and invite the Government to establish a new demography or population authority. Given the expertise in this House and its convening power, we should also tackle the issues in one of our committees. Such changes would be an appropriate legacy of my noble friend Lord Hodgson’s 50-year contribution to Parliament, to public life and to evidence-based debate.