Scotland

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Monday 4th November 2024

(1 month, 2 weeks ago)

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Baroness Smith of Basildon Portrait Baroness Smith of Basildon (Lab)
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The noble Lord makes an important point. In some ways it is the opposite—the other side of the coin—to that made by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes. We have reserved and devolved matters, and it is about making sure that we stick to our responsibilities and work together. The only way this works is with each Government having respect for the other and working together, so I assure him that that is what we seek to do and will continue to do.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke (Lab)
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My Lords, is the noble Baroness aware that £47.7 billion was given to the Scottish Government last week—the highest amount in history? Will she join me in congratulating the Chancellor on that distinctive amount of money? But will she also call into question some of the expenditure mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, on vanity projects, rather than turning round the economy of Scotland, as it deserves? Incidentally, the money was made available because of a former Member on this side of the House, Joel Barnett—Lord Barnett—and it was supposed to be only a short-term measure, but it has been about 40 years now.

Baroness Smith of Basildon Portrait Baroness Smith of Basildon (Lab)
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My Lords, it sometimes feels like 40 years can go by in the blink of an eye in your Lordships’ House. I remember Lord Barnett well. The noble Baroness is absolutely right: the real-terms increase of £3.4 billion next year takes Scottish funding to £47.7 billion—the largest settlement ever in devolution history. Of course, that is on top of the £125 million confirmed for GB Energy. We have also committed funds to Brand Scotland, which will promote investment opportunities in Scotland. The noble Baroness’s basic point is important: the additional money is supposed to directly benefit the people of Scotland, in the economy, health and education. We look forward to working with the Scottish Government to make sure that that is the case.

Brexit: Negotiations

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Thursday 22nd November 2018

(6 years, 1 month ago)

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Baroness Evans of Bowes Park Portrait Baroness Evans of Bowes Park
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I am not sure whether my noble friend was watching the television at the weekend, but the Prime Minister was on television quite a lot. She will most certainly be continuing to sell this deal, as indeed will all members of the Government. I am sure she will be interested in his views on how she can best do this.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke (Lab)
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My Lords, in paragraph 38 there is a reference to the financial services sector, going back to the issue of equivalence which is mentioned in the withdrawal agreement. Since the referendum, the financial services sector has said again and again that equivalence is not good enough to maintain an industry with the international reputation that we have here in Britain. At the very least, the Governor of the Bank of England has said that enhanced equivalence is needed. Tens of thousands of jobs rest on this, not just in the City but in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol and throughout the United Kingdom. Will the Minister please go behind some of the waffle that is in this to give reassurance? Businesses not four miles away from here are making plans to relocate. That has to be stopped.

Baroness Evans of Bowes Park Portrait Baroness Evans of Bowes Park
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I hope I can reassure the noble Baroness when I say that we have agreed to negotiate new arrangements on financial services that provide greater co-operation and consultation than is possible under existing third-country frameworks. For existing regimes, the EU and UK have agreed to move quickly to progress equivalent assessments during the implementation period and, crucially, both sides will endeavour to conclude decisions on granting equivalence by the end of June 2020—which is a major step forward in providing clarity for the industry about a smooth transition to our new relationship.

Rugby World Cup 2015

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Wednesday 11th November 2015

(9 years, 1 month ago)

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Baroness Neville-Rolfe Portrait Baroness Neville-Rolfe
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My Lords, I agree about the cornucopia that the noble Lord described. We actually have a very good system through a number of bodies, such as Historic England and English Heritage, and of course the private sector, including the National Trust and the Historic Houses Association, which do a superb job in repairing our buildings. Obviously we at DCMS will play our part in this challenging spending review, but the cornucopia remains.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke (Lab)
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My Lords, would the Minister remind the Chancellor, when she has discussions with him, that for every £1 that VisitBritain spends in promoting tourism in the United Kingdom, £21 is earned from international visitors? Between 2009 and 2013, according to the Office for National Statistics, employment in tourism grew by 5.4% when it grew by only 2.8% in other sectors of the economy. We in this House know how concerned the Chancellor is to ensure good opportunities for hard-working people. Will the Minister encourage him to back a winner in this case and continue the investment in VisitBritain and British tourism?

Baroness Neville-Rolfe Portrait Baroness Neville-Rolfe
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My Lords, we are well aware of the strong role that tourism plays in our country and our economy. This is a factor that will be taken into account. Employment is also much higher than the rate in the non-tourist sector. It is a huge employer, which is incredibly important.

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Friday 31st January 2014

(10 years, 10 months ago)

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Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke (Lab)
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My Lords, I support the amendment. In an earlier intervention, the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, drew a parallel with a debate we had in this House yesterday about the Scottish referendum. One of the key themes that came out was the need for a plan B regarding the currency. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, referred to uncertainty. Take it from me that if you are in an extended referendum campaign, the impact of uncertainty, particularly on business intentions, is very considerable indeed. We are not confidently out of recession; even the Chancellor acknowledges that. One thing that business cries out for is a degree of certainty. That is why this is a common-sense amendment. We have to go into any referendum in an atmosphere of calm. It should not be held in an atmosphere in which some people think that the rug is going to be pulled for political reasons rather than for the best interests of the country as a whole.

Before the end of this year, one part of Britain will take a vote on whether to leave the oldest and most successful single market in the world. If there is a no vote in the referendum to come on the EU, we will be taking a decision about leaving the biggest single market in the world. It is essential for the long-term decision-making of British and international business for us to give an indication of the options, what the possible plan B is, and what the consequences will be. The Government, as part of the debate about the future of Scotland, has produced some excellent analytical papers. I commend to noble Lords who do not want to go into the minutiae of the nature of the debate on Scotland one paper in particular: the analysis of the situation regarding defence. The capability exists within the Civil Service to produce a balanced argument.

I know that the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, is a little more anxious today than he was last time, and I feel for him. It is probably the only time in this House that he will ever have unrestrained power. As a Back-Bencher with a Bill, he is in a position, without consulting anybody else, to be able to say that he accepts an amendment. We will get a move on and put a common-sense element into the Bill. If there had been schedules to it, we could have looked at them; but there are none. I therefore appeal to the noble Lord. Let us give a crumb to those who want this campaign to take place in an atmosphere of calmness and give a signal to the business community, which has lots of money to invest at the moment, that it can do so in an atmosphere of certainty.

Lord Davies of Stamford Portrait Lord Davies of Stamford (Lab)
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My Lords, I take it as pretty certain that there will ultimately be a referendum because, at some point, there will be a new treaty anyway. I totally agree with my noble friend Lady Liddell that any referendum produces economic costs and uncertainties, and that is why it is particularly regrettable that the Government have, quite unnecessarily, brought forward this entirely gratuitous Bill in this Session of Parliament to have a referendum at some point in the next Parliament. It would be much better if we left the matter until then.

However, I do not think that our labours are wasted because what we are producing today, were producing last week and will go on producing in the remaining days on which the Bill is under consideration, is a kind of template for any future referendum when it occurs. It will be clear to any Government what can and cannot get through the House of Lords. No Government will again be tempted to try to fiddle around with the main question to be asked on the referendum ballot paper, which we discussed last week. The Bill has now established that and it would not be sensible to change it. In future, Governments will be guided by the Electoral Commission’s views on what the proper question would be. Again, if we were to pass this amendment, it would be carried forward into any future Bill, even if this Bill were not to be passed and this referendum did not take place.

A few moments ago, the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, said that if we had a referendum the country would have a very stark choice. I entirely agree. We all know that it will also be a very momentous choice, but it will actually be a rather uneven choice because the British public will be asked to choose between a known and an unknown—between an established and familiar fact on the one side and a purely hypothetical speculation on the other. It is very unfair and very dangerous to put the electorate in that position. It is dangerous because in those circumstances there is great scope, and therefore great temptation, for the promoters of the unknown option—those who, in this case, want to leave the European Union—to replace the unknown with a picture of their own devising which may be entirely fanciful, very wishful and even deliberately and cynically deceptive. That would be a very bad thing; it would be a very bad day for democracy to have a dishonest campaign of that kind. Therefore, it is very important that the electorate is able, as far as possible, to choose between two explicit descriptions of the two scenarios that are being offered. That is why I think that the amendment is enormously important.

There are some areas where a relatively reliable statement can be made about an unknown. For example, we all know that the Tory party does not like the Social Chapter. If we leave the European Union, we will not, by definition, be part of the Social Chapter, so it will be possible to say to people that there will not be a part-time workers directive or a parental leave directive, and anybody who is a part-time worker or who is thinking of having children will know where they stand. There are areas of greater uncertainty but they are ones where one can at least produce a reasonable description of the sort of scenario that might eventuate. For example, people are particularly concerned about whether we could still have access to the single market. There is a precedent in Norway and a precedent for EFTA, so there is a certain degree of credibility and responsibility in saying that there is certainly a likelihood that we could join EFTA if we wanted to. However, the rules of EFTA are quite clear—they have already been mentioned this morning—and it has already been explained why in many cases it would be very unsatisfactory to a great many of us.

However, there are areas where nothing certain at all can be said about what the position would be if we left the European Union today, and I fear that that is becoming increasingly likely in relation to the great area of access to the single market. Recently I have noticed that even those people who have been advocating our leaving the European Union have ceased to say, “Well, we could get a deal like Norway”. They have even ceased to say that we could get a deal like that of Switzerland. There is universal consensus on the continent among our partners and in the Commission that no one would ever be allowed to do a Swiss-type deal again. It is simply too complicated and difficult to administer with, I think, 140 separate agreements with the European Union. That type of scenario is out anyway, and anybody who takes a look at the situation will realise that it is not a possibility.

Therefore, one increasingly hears—we hear it increasingly often in this House—Eurosceptics and promoters of our leaving the European Union who say, “We’ll do better than Norway or Switzerland”. What do they mean by that? It seems to be far from clear. I detect in conversations with continental colleagues that in the type of circumstances in which we would leave the European Union there would be very little inclination to come up with special favours for us. Some have said, “Oh well, we have a deficit with the European Union. The rest of the European Union exports to us more than we export to them”. However, in point of fact, it is not a question of how big the deficit is for us or how substantial our imports or exports are; the leverage consists of the extent to which our trade is a proportion of the trade of our continental partners. It is generally never more than 25%. Therefore, I am afraid that we probably do not have a leverage.

In any case, there is no point in speculating about this, and it would be very dishonest to do so. It is important that a serious effort is made to sort out the consequences of our leaving the European Union. That should be set down in black and white by a Government who are then committed to making sure that they do not say anything which is deliberately untrue. They would have to have had serious discussions with our colleagues and partners in the rest of the European Union about what would and would not eventuate from our leaving. The British public could then be offered a genuinely honest choice between two scenarios, the details of which would have been set out as truthfully as possible.

Tourism

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Wednesday 30th January 2013

(11 years, 10 months ago)

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Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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My Lords, given the previous question, I should declare an interest as a director of VisitBritain. Does the Minister agree that the great opportunities that exist for British tourism on the back of the excellent images of Britain through the Olympics and Paralympics will be limited if people have difficulty getting into Britain? It is not just a visa issue, it is also an issue about aviation policy and the negative publicity that British airports have had over the past few weeks. What action are the Government taking in the short term to help alleviate these difficulties for people coming into Britain?

Lord Gardiner of Kimble Portrait Lord Gardiner of Kimble
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A number of issues are being taken forward. The first, although we want to go beyond visa issues, is that last year the UK Border Agency launched the simplified approved destinations scheme, which is particularly important for China. Clearly, there are also important advantages. We want to ensure that the growth of tourism from India and other countries improves. Our objective is to get 500,000 new visitors from China by 2015. This is clearly going to involve a great deal of work co-ordinating vis-à-vis airports, as the noble Baroness suggested, and across the piece to ensure that many people from all around the world can visit our wonderful country.

Scotland: Referendum

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Monday 15th October 2012

(12 years, 2 months ago)

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Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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My Lords, the noble Lord said that compromise was necessary and I think that all those who have followed this process would agree with him. He also mentioned clarity and we do have clarity in the single question. I am one of those who have never entirely understood what is meant by devo-max, and if you ask three people what they think it is you always get four different answers. Therefore, it is entirely right that we remove the opportunity for that question to be asked.

The question on the paper will be a question on independence. The precise wording will be for the Scottish Parliament to determine and will be set out in the referendum Bill to be introduced by the Scottish Government. However, the Scottish Government have agreed to refer the proposed referendum question and any preceding statement to the Electoral Commission for review of its intelligibility. It is important that interested parties will be able to submit their views on the proposed wording to the Electoral Commission as part of the commission’s review process in the normal way.

We have had experience of this already, although admittedly perhaps not on something this important or involving the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Government will respond to the report, indicating their response to any recommendations that the Electoral Commission may make. The point is that this will be a very public process. Equally, constitutionally it is right that it must be up to a parliament to decide what question should be on the paper. That is what this Parliament would demand and I can understand why we have concluded that it is right for the Scottish Parliament to do the same thing.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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My Lords, I am grateful for the opportunity to add to this debate. There has been a startling degree of naiveté on the part of the Government in the negotiations that have taken place so far. I noted that the noble Lord the Leader of the House talked about the need for transparency and a level playing field, and he discussed the fact that a body of work is to be undertaken to ensure that the facts are properly put before the people of Scotland. I say to him that that is not enough. We have already had a degree of sophistry and confusion over whether Scotland would automatically be a member of the European Union and would have to adopt the euro. I have no doubt that, as a Scotsman, the noble Lord the Leader of the House has used the old toast, “Here’s tae us. Wha’s like us? Damn few, and they’re a’ deid”. That means that anyone who suggests that after independence Scotland will not be a land of milk and honey will be rubbished. It is not enough to say that a body of work will be undertaken. There will be a requirement for rebuttal and I ask the Minister to look hard at establishing a panel of neutral experts who will be available for that process of rebuttal.

Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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My Lords, I slightly object to the accusation of naiveté. Many of us warned the Labour Party many years ago that this is exactly what would happen, and it was senior members of the Labour Party who continually told us that this was the thing that would stop the nationalists in their tracks. However, the years go by and now here we are, all working together to try to stop this process. I do not think there is any naiveté anywhere in this Government about the role that the First Minister of Scotland takes or the verbal gymnastics and occasional distortions that take place. The Government are utterly committed to providing evidence-based information to the people of Scotland so that they can very clearly see what the impact of breaking up the United Kingdom would be and what the separatist cause would lead us to.

Libya and the Middle East

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Monday 28th February 2011

(13 years, 9 months ago)

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Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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I am glad to hear that the noble and learned Lord say no.

Again, it is part of putting pressure on the regime and senior supporters of the regime including looking at the role of the International Criminal Court. It should complete its investigations so that we can bring this truly appalling situation to an end as quickly as possible.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord for repeating the Statement from the Prime Minister and I am glad that the opportunity will be taken to learn lessons from the procedures, particularly around the evacuation. If one contrasts the evacuation from Libya with the evacuation just a couple of years ago from Lebanon, it was at a much slower pace. However, I have a much more mundane, long-term question. For the courageous young people that we have seen throughout the region to reach their aspirations, there will have to be a sound economy throughout that region. With the turbulence surrounding events of the past couple of weeks, we have seen oil prices rising to $120 a barrel. That has a direct impact on this economy and on the fragile economies of the developing world.

I am aware that the structures exist to bring together oil producers and consumers both within and outwith OPEC to discuss the operation of oil markets. Will the Leader of the House indicate whether there has been an opportunity to begin those discussions? If we do not secure stability in oil markets in the Middle East, many of these courageous young people will experience continuing poverty, and such poverty of aspiration is what brought them onto the streets in the first place.

Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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My Lords, the noble Baroness did not ask a mundane question. It is a crucial one and goes to the heart of how the situation will develop possibly over the next few months but certainly over the course of the next few years. The key is about the economy in these countries. As the noble Baroness pointed out, a lot of that is dependent on the price of oil and how it is managed. The second part of her question was about the role of young people, the proportion of whom as a population appears to be far greater in some of these countries than in Europe.

To the specific question on whether discussions are ongoing with oil producers, particularly OPEC, the answer is yes, and they will continue. There are no easy answers to what the noble Baroness called her mundane question, but we are very much aware of them. The decisions, depending on how events pan out over the next few weeks, will have a great bearing on the success of the north African economy over the next few years.

Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Monday 17th January 2011

(13 years, 11 months ago)

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Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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Perhaps I could postulate another figure, given the nature of the debate. Could we maybe go for 666?

Lord Harris of Haringey Portrait Lord Harris of Haringey
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It is interesting that the noble Baroness suggests that. When I looked in more detail at the combinations of prime numbers, I was going to say that perhaps the figure of 600 was chosen because it was a round number and that it would be very different from choosing 666, which is the mark of the beast, which no doubt noble Lords opposite would not have wished to use.

Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Monday 20th December 2010

(14 years ago)

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Lord Howarth of Newport Portrait Lord Howarth of Newport
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I am worried precisely about that. That is why I set it up as an Aunt Sally, because it would be an alternative. It would have at least the virtue of being respectful of political sentiment, public opinion and the way people had voted in the individual parts of the United Kingdom. But it would be an absurd arrangement for us to alight upon.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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My noble friend makes a serious and important point, but he, like me, will be aware that in the second part of this legislation we will be considering a system of parliamentary inquiries that will mean that, in different parts of the country, the setting of parliamentary constituencies will be different. Parliamentary constituencies for the Scottish Parliament will still have access to the inquiry system, whereas parliamentary constituencies for Westminster, if the legislation is carried, will not. Random mixtures of parliamentary rules for election to the other place are therefore not inconceivable.

Lord Howarth of Newport Portrait Lord Howarth of Newport
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My noble friend is absolutely right. This legislation is fraught with potential to divide and disintegrate the United Kingdom. I am conscious of that particularly as someone who had the honour of representing a Welsh constituency, because the proposals in Part 2 as they would affect Wales are particularly traumatic.

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Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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The noble and learned Lord makes a good point, but the referendum that we are dealing with today is very simple; it is yes and no on changing the electoral system. The referendum that the people of Scotland and Wales faced in 1978 was entirely different and raised much more fundamental issues of constitutional propriety and the setting up of different Parliaments and Assemblies in both those countries.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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I am very grateful to the noble Lord for giving way. Does he not acknowledge, as the Deputy Prime Minister has done, that this is the greatest reforming measure since 1832? Since the 1970s it has become a convention, when major constitutional matters are being considered, that there be consultation and pre-legislative scrutiny. There has been neither consultation on, nor pre-legislative scrutiny of, this legislation.

Lord Strathclyde Portrait Lord Strathclyde
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I really do not agree. There has been much discussion on changing the electoral system for as long as I have been of voting age. It has been discussed many times in and outside Parliament. People are very well versed on this. As for this new convention that the noble Baroness has introduced, when the role of Lord Chancellor was scrapped, it was done on the back of an envelope—in a press release. There was no consultation or discussion whatever, even with the judiciary. It led to the resignation of the then Lord Chancellor, to be succeeded by the noble and learned Lord, so this is an entirely new convention. It may be very desirable, but it is new.

Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Excerpts
Wednesday 15th December 2010

(14 years ago)

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Lord Elystan-Morgan Portrait Lord Elystan-Morgan
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I am not sure whether it is to the convenience of the Committee, but I rise to speak to Amendments 44A and 45A. They have been degrouped, but I do not think that that will make any practical difference to tonight’s discussions. I have listened with great interest to the most eloquent contributions of the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, and the noble Lords, Lord Lamont and Lord Williamson, and I find myself very much in sympathy with everything that they have said.

However, I hope that when the noble Lord, Lord McNally, eventually determines this matter, he will again manage to achieve—as I am sure he had at one time—an open mind before coming to a conclusion. He is a person for whom I have immense regard and I believe that he is a great enough man to be prepared to reconsider the matter in the light of solid evidence.

The case can be put in six words: it is an insurance against disaster. When you insure something, you insure it not because you think that there is the certainty, nor indeed the likelihood, of destruction or damage. Nor do you insure it because you think that there is a fairly minor percentage possibility. However, because there exists a possibility, the prudent person insures. It is on that basis that I ask the Minister to consider this argument, which I put forward with great sincerity, believing as I do that it would greatly improve the Bill.

I accept that we are dealing with a situation of the utmost constitutional significance. This is only the second time that a referendum on a whole-UK basis has been held. The first and only one until now was in 1975 in respect of the United Kingdom’s membership of the Common Market. We are having a referendum for the second time in 35 years. I have no doubt that Mr Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, was quite correct in saying that this is the most significant constitutional change since the Great Reform Act of 1832. Putting those matters together, therefore, I have not the slightest doubt that the Government were absolutely right to make this issue the subject of a referendum. One can hardly think of a matter that is more pertinent and more epoch-making.

I agree that referenda, in the main, are a diversion from the ordinary processes of Parliament. It is received wisdom that, in the Glorious Revolution of 1689 and the Bill of Rights, there was a huge transfer of power from monarchy to the people. That is not quite true. The transfer of power was from monarchy to Parliament. Parliament has exercised that sovereign authority as a trustee for the people ever since. In one sense, it would be a craven and irresponsible act on the part of Parliament to seek to delegate that authority back to the people—subject, of course, to the decision of the people at election time. However, there are exceptions and this, I think, is clearly one of them. It is delegating to the people that direct democratic authority that at one time was exercised, as the Committee will remember, in Greek city states and in the Roman republic thereafter—something utterly exceptional as far as our own system is concerned.

Nevertheless, that system is fraught with peril. It is possible, although very unlikely, that one could have a result brought about by only a minuscule proportion of the electorate. That is what we should insure against. We should be cognisant of the possible dangers. If it were the consequence of Parliament’s position having so fallen into desuetude that general apathy and contempt kept people away from the voting booth, there would be very little that we could do about it. However, it could stem from wholly accidental sources. It is not impossible to have rainfall of a number of inches over a period of a few hours, as we have seen in the past two or three years, bringing about a wholly disastrous situation due to a vicissitude of nature. Another vicissitude of nature could well be foot and mouth disease, paralysing all mobility in the rural areas. We have seen that happen twice in the past 43 years. It could happen again. Let us hope that it never will happen again, but it could. Nobody can stand up in this House and say, “You are talking nonsense. These are possibilities that simply cannot happen”. I would say that they are very unlikely to happen, and I hope and pray that they never will happen, but I think that we would be extremely foolish not to insure against them.

Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke Portrait Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
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I am very interested in the point that the noble Lord is making. He may recall that the 1979 referendum on the Scotland and Wales Acts was held on 1 March, St David’s Day. I well remember that we got up in the morning on 1 March and snow was falling. I remember the late Donald Dewar saying that if he had a dog he would kick it. Thankfully it was not my dog, and it was not foot and mouth disease or something as dramatic as that. However, there was an awareness that the weather conditions were going to be quite negative on that day.

Lord Elystan-Morgan Portrait Lord Elystan-Morgan
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I hear what the noble Baroness says and I am sure that she is correct. I had the unfortunate experience of being chairman of the yes campaign in Wales and we lost heavily. However, there is no defence that I can raise in respect of weather, unfortunately.

Coming back to the question, I think that a threshold is certainly called for. The point has been well made by the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, that nearly all other democracies, particularly those that have a written constitution, have a provision for a threshold, so we would not be doing something out of line with democratic process and experience in many other countries. As noble Lords know, there are two types of threshold. One is the threshold relating to the minimum number in the turnout; the other threshold is the majority threshold. In 1978, there was the Cunningham amendment. The result of that amendment was that, for the devolution referendums in Scotland and Wales to be carried, there had to be at least 40 per cent in favour of the proposition.

The very distinguished constitutional commentator, Professor Vernon Bogdanor, has analysed that situation. You could achieve a 40 per cent majority in Scotland on an 80 per cent turnout if 50 per cent voted in favour. If the turnout went down to 70 per cent, you could still achieve it on 57 per cent of the vote. If it went down to 60 per cent, it would be 67 per cent—of course, a very high level unlikely to be achieved. Whether wrecking the referendum was the purpose or the desire, I know not. It may not have been, but that was certainly the result in Scotland. I make that point because many people have come up to me in the past few days saying, “I’m not really for your proposition. This 40 per cent business was gone into in the Cunningham amendment many years ago”. However, this is quite different, as it relates simply to the question of turnout.