The UK’s Demographic Future

Baroness Finn Excerpts

Thursday 11th December 2025 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Finn (Con)]

My Lords, I begin by putting on record my gratitude for the contributions in this House by my noble friend Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts over 25 years, ahead of his retirement. I have been a Member of your Lordships’ House for only 10 of those years, but it has been an honour and a pleasure to serve alongside him during this time. He has been an active and effective Member of your Lordships’ House and will be greatly missed. The heartfelt tributes from noble Lords across the House today are testimony to this undeniable truth.

I am delighted to take part in this debate to take note of the report Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow. The issues it raises speak to one of the most consequential policy challenges of our age—the demographic future of the United Kingdom. Its authors demand that we confront an unavoidable truth: demographics shape everything. They shape our economy, public services, environment, culture, infrastructure and welfare system. Demographic change is one of the least discussed, understood and planned-for forces in British public life. As the noble Lord, Lord Faulks, pointed out, we should not be afraid to discuss it. My noble friend Lady Verma made an eloquent case in her extraordinarily powerful speech that issues of demography and integration have been swerved for far too long.

My noble friend’s report is wide ranging and detailed. It is evidently the result of extensive research and proposes a number of recommendations which we should consider carefully. I congratulate him on it. One of its most impressive features is that it shines a light on so many of the areas impacted by rapid population growth—biodiversity, national security, water and food security, public services and our ageing population.

Increasing migration is undoubtedly a major challenge, as the noble Lord, Lord Green of Deddington, among many others, has consistently warned. This report makes the point that, without firm population controls and forward planning, the pressures on public services, infrastructure and the environment will become unmanageable. We need to consider how to develop a mechanism to ensure that migration numbers are sustainable, predictable and aligned with the nation’s capacity to absorb them, delivering in effect the long-term planning framework that the report calls for.

The report emphasises that current demographic trends, in particular high net migration, are placing substantial burdens on housing, healthcare, education and welfare infrastructure, and warns that, if present patterns continue, the United Kingdom could become one of the most populous countries in Europe within a few decades. Yet, crucially, population growth does not guarantee an increase in living standards. Indeed, as the report notes, rising aggregate GDP often masks falling GDP per capita, stagnant productivity and declining real wages. Relying on ever-increasing population levels to boost headline GDP is a false economy. This point was well made by my noble friend Lord Horam. What matters is what working families feel and living standards per person, not size of the population as a whole.

Economic success must be built on higher productivity, better skills and strong domestic labour participation, not continually importing labour to compensate for structural weaknesses. Relying on low-skilled migration is not the answer, as the noble Lord, Lord Empey, emphasised. We must prioritise our own skills programmes and address urgently and directly the challenge of upskilling our own workforce.

The report warns repeatedly that using immigration to prop up GDP growth or to compensate for an ageing population will lead to long-term fiscal strain. My noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe spoke persuasively on this point. Even if population growth does not reach that extreme, the medium-term projections still point to the UK adding around 10 million people in the next 20 years, driven overwhelmingly by immigration. For this reason, we need some kind of mechanism to manage migration, combined with reforms to the visa system to ensure that only genuinely high-skilled applicants earning at or above the required thresholds can come to the UK. This is about controlling a rate of change so that population levels remain manageable, aligned with public sentiment and consistent with the nation’s capacity to provide.

The report underscores the need to align population growth with housing and infrastructure. The Government have pledged 1.5 million new homes in the next Parliament. Although that is an important commitment, the report rightly notes that, without careful planning, new supply will struggle to keep pace with population increase. Again, this point was picked up by my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe. House prices have already been driven up significantly, in part because demand has far outstripped supply. If the population grows by over 6 million by 2035, as some projections suggest, then 1.5 million homes alone will not stabilise prices or alleviate overcrowding, unless accompanied by strategic planning and major infrastructure investment.

The report rightly highlights public services, with strain already evident across the NHS, as the noble Baroness, Lady Stuart, pointed out. Waiting lists remain above pre-pandemic levels, and the report’s projections make it clear that, without careful planning, an additional 10 million would further exacerbate pressures. As the report notes, migration-driven growth increases demand for healthcare, while the fiscal contributions of migrants vary considerably depending on skill level and integration.

We need to shift our immigration system firmly toward high-skilled, high-contributing migrants, while simultaneously investing in domestic training. This is particularly the case when it comes to medicine, social care and essential public service roles. At present, over 20,000 British-trained doctors each year do not secure specialist training places, yet we continue to rely heavily on internationally trained staff to fill NHS vacancies. This is not sustainable. We need to expand domestic clinical training capacity and apprenticeships to ensure that young people in the UK can enter professions where they are desperately needed.

On welfare, the report emphasises the importance of fiscal sustainability, noting that population growth alone will not resolve pressures on the welfare state and pensions. Indeed, depending on the composition and productivity of the population, it can worsen them. That is why we must prioritise making work pay, tightening welfare eligibility and strengthening incentives for labour market participation.

This report paints a picture of a country at a demographic crossroads, as the noble Lord, Lord Frost, demonstrated. There is no doubt that, if we continue with unmanaged population growth, relying on immigration as a short-term economic remedy, we will face mounting pressures on service housing, infrastructure and social cohesion—although my noble friend Lord Sarfraz did make an excellent case for robots to swerve these problems. We need to consider more carefully how we manage migration, with a focus on selective high-skill immigration, domestic skills investment, welfare reform and a coherent long-term housing and infrastructure strategy.

Can the Minister explain how the Government intend to develop a long-term demographic strategy that addresses these points? Will the Government ensure that population projections inform policy across departments, from housing and transport to healthcare and welfare? Will they finally accept that migration cannot remain the default solution to labour shortages and economic challenges? There can be no doubt that, as we consider the current challenges our country faces and the country our children stand to inherit, we cannot shy away from these issues. We must consider the issues that this report raises and have an answer to the central question of how we intend to reduce our reliance on immigration and focus much more on increasing our productivity and domestic skills and on building a sustainable economy.

These are just some of the key challenges and questions which the Government face. It is not possible to reflect the full range of challenges that are highlighted in the report in my remarks today, but I am pleased that noble Lords have been able to bring so many of these themes and core challenges to the fore in their contributions, such as the environmental factors that were referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Faulks, the fertility issues raised by the noble Lord, Lord Frost, and especially the strains on social cohesion, which a number of noble Lords, such as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leicester and my noble friend Lord Blencathra highlighted. Other issues and problems were eloquently demonstrated by my noble friend Lady Buscombe.

As my noble friend Lord Hodgson highlights in the foreword of his report, the British have been repeatedly promised a policy by political parties of all stripes that would focus on admitting a limited number of highly skilled or creative individuals: a policy with which few would disagree. Instead, they have seen virtually uncontrolled numbers of primarily lower-skilled individuals. The debate today has been a good opportunity to consider why we have seen those levels of immigration, with their consequential impact, in the past, and, most importantly, to ask ourselves what steps must be taken to put us on the right track for the future.

Looking to the recommendations, my noble friend proposes a twin-track approach, with a new responsibility placed on government alongside a new body to monitor the Government’s objectives and provide research on that policy. I entirely accept the premise that demographic policy currently lacks coherence. With responsibility fragmented across the Home Office, the Department for Education, the DWP and the Cabinet Office, each one pursuing its own objectives with little regard for the whole, we have a system that is nobody’s responsibility.

On data, the report recommends that the Government should be required to monitor and disclose the likely level of population change in the near and long term. This touches on a point of real concern to noble Lords on these Benches. It was a little over two weeks ago that my noble friend Lord Jackson of Peterborough forced Ministers to review and publish the data that is held on the number of students who have had their visas revoked due to criminality during the progress of the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill. The Government initially resisted publication of that data. On issues as important as demography, the Government should be seeking to build greater trust with the British people. Refusing to publish data has the opposite effect. Can the Minister please reassure your Lordships’ House that the Government will take a more positive attitude towards requests for additional data in the future?

While we are on the issue of data, I briefly mention that my honourable friend Nick Timothy MP asked Ministers in the other place last month whether the Government planned to release data on the economic contributions by different profiles of migrants, in line with the Danish model. The Minister refused. As the report highlights, better data and greater transparency are essential. I hope that the Minister can give us an assurance that Ministers are seriously reviewing the current publications, with a view to improving transparency.

The report includes a recommendation for a new authority, to be called the Office for Demographic Change, ODC, or Office for Population Sustainability, OPS. My noble friend is right that Ministers should consider our existing structures for monitoring immigration and population over time—not to mention emigration, which is of such concern when those choosing to leave the country are our wealth creators and high-skilled young people starting out in their careers. We need the right mechanisms for monitoring and reporting, so that Parliament and, in turn, the British people have the information they need to make informed choices about the future of demographic policy. My noble friend Lord Horam brilliantly explained the importance of long-term monitoring. I am personally always sceptical of the creation of new NDPBs as, over time, public bodies often come to establish their own institutional views. I would be interested to hear from my noble friend how he would plan to mitigate that risk, but there is certainly a strong case for some such body.

My noble friend Lord Hodgson is absolutely right with his core thesis. Ministers must be held to account and we should continue to explore new and tougher processes by which we can hold the Government to account on the future demography of our country. Finally, it only remains to congratulate my noble friend on securing this debate on the day that he has chosen to make his valedictory speech. The debate, which has touched on so many of the core challenges we face as a nation, is a testament to his commitment to building a brighter future for our country as a devoted public servant. I know I speak for the whole House in wishing him all the very best in his next chapter outside your Lordships’ House.