(5 years ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I welcome most of the measures in this Bill, which I can see are a necessary step to get the economy moving again. However, I have two concerns. The first has to do with the missing element in these measures, regarding the Government instructing the public to avoid using public transport. We know that private traffic levels have risen sharply since lockdown was eased. However, the use of public transport is very low, as the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, noted—about 16% of normal usage for the London Underground and 33% for buses in London, and less for buses outside London.
This government guidance is clearly a deterrent for people who do not have a car to return to work, yet who are being told not to use public transport, thereby contradicting efforts to get the economy moving again. When will the Government change that guidance to advise people to avoid travelling during peak periods—in order words, to be more flexible in their travel times—rather than not using public transport at all?
My other concern is to do with business bounce-back loans. While I can see and welcome the speed and agility needed to keep SMEs viable during this crisis, I am not sure about the long-term consequences of these measures. The Minister told us in his opening remarks that some £29 billion of overall business lending has been to small business. The lending institutions estimate that about 50% of these businesses are likely to default on the loans. They have been instructed by the Treasury and the British Business Bank that they will have to resort to their normal approach on the collection of the loans. This normal approach does not apply to the granting of the loans, in terms of the due diligence and creditworthiness checks, as would have been normal, and self-certification is the chosen route, along with people’s private assets not being able to be held as collateral. Therefore, we could end up in a situation in which the lending institutions are in what has been described as a toxic relationship with borrowers, which is not a fair creation. They will have to massively scale up their arrears handling, particularly as mortgage holidays will also be unpayable by some borrowers.
What assessment of losses, and the viability of some of these small businesses, underpinned the Government’s modelling of the default rates on these loans, given that the Government, and ultimately the taxpayer, are the lenders of last resort? What conversations are they having with regulators such as the FCA regarding setting up a dispute resolution scheme, as well as the business banking resolution service, to deal with the volumes that may be affected? Have they contemplated setting up a bad bank-type solution to move these loans off the balance sheets of the high street lenders?
I appreciate that perhaps some of these questions are too complex to be dealt with in this Bill, but I pose them because it is increasingly clear that this health emergency will be with us for some time, thus also prolonging the economic downturn. We need to spell out clearly the consequences of the risks for borrowers and lenders, and plan how they will be mitigated in time before many additional businesses are given a false hope that they can carry on a bit longer and all will be well. If hard choices must be made, they should be made with careful regard for what lies ahead.
(5 years ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, as I have said repeatedly, our view is that bringing diplomacy and international development together makes sense in our new complex global world. For instance, to protect ourselves against another pandemic, the UK will have to work alongside our friends to strengthen international bodies like the WHO, and help vulnerable countries come together to improve their health systems and achieve greater resilience. Therefore, it does not make sense to have a dichotomy and say that the two should be separate in our complex international world, with the challenges that we face.
My Lords, we are entering a period of much harsher international relations. That is what Sir John Sawers told us on the “Today” programme this morning, and I agree. I can see the argument for a more strategic approach to our international relations in the round—although I am slightly sceptical about the timing of this announcement—but since the noble Baroness has mentioned Australia, Canada, New Zealand and other allies, all of which have their international trade departments as well as international development within the ambit of their foreign services, I ask why we are not doing that. Can she say a little more about the part of the Prime Minister’s Statement where he says that the Government will align international trade with the Foreign Office?
The decision that has been made in this announcement is obviously about those two departments, but we believe that we need single cross-government strategies on the ground in each country headed up by the ambassador or high commissioner. Trade envoys will work within that, so there will be very close working between DIT and the new department. We feel that this is the right move at this point.
(5 years, 9 months ago)
Lords ChamberI can only defer to my noble friend on his knowledge in this area. The concerns that have been expressed across the House are noted. As I have said, the exact mechanisms in this area will be subject to discussions with our Irish colleagues and, obviously, with representatives of the communities within Northern Ireland. As he says, it is critical that we get this right and get it right for both communities in Northern Ireland, so that we can move forward and protect the fantastic achievements that have been made in relation to peace in Northern Ireland. I hope I have been clear that this is paramount and a primary aim for us within these proposals.
My Lords, the Prime Minister has said that this is a final offer. Does the Minister agree that, while it may be the final offer from the UK, it is the beginning of a fresh negotiation? It is profoundly important for the Government to keep that in mind and be prepared to make further compromises against the framework of what they have outlined.
In light of that, coming back to the principle of consent, I would like to put a proposition to the Minister that is very much in keeping with the reservations that several noble Lords have addressed today. Instead of having a tight four-year framework in which issues are debated again and again, and with a limited mandate—as pointed out by the noble Baroness, Lady Armstrong—would the Government be prepared to consider a longer timeframe, potentially of seven to 10 years? I accept that the Minister is not going to take part in negotiations from these Benches, but, in the absence of that, perhaps the Government can look at the provisions of the European Union Act 2011, where it was intended to consult the people only when there was a significant change in the transfer of powers to the EU. Perhaps a similar formula could be employed to gain consent. Significant regulatory change or dealignment from either the United Kingdom or the EU might be the only circumstances under which the consent formula would kick in again. In other words, continue with the framework at the point of departure, of Brexit, and make changes only when a certain threshold has been achieved.
I thank the noble Baroness for her constructive comments. She is right that I will not be stepping into negotiations from the Dispatch Box, but I can certainly reiterate that, as I said in answer to the noble Baroness, in his letter to President Juncker the Prime Minister makes clear that this is a broad landing zone, within which we believe a deal can take shape. As I said, his chief negotiator has gone to Brussels to continue the intense negotiations. We will be discussing the concerns or ideas raised by President Juncker, President Tusk and the Taoiseach as we go forward over the next few days.
(5 years, 9 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, in light of the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, have Her Majesty’s Government made any attempt to speak to the other Commonwealth countries about whether visas and rights of residence will be issued across the Commonwealth to the young demonstrators in Hong Kong when and if action of that nature is required? In other words, will we live up to our obligations to provide safe harbour to them?
My Lords, I share the noble Baroness’s concerns on this issue. We are in dialogue with many of our friends and partners around the world. We have made our concerns about human rights clear to the Chinese Government. Earlier this week, my noble friend Lord Ahmad co-hosted an event in the margins of the UN General Assembly on the situation in Xinjiang, which remains an issue of serious concern.
(6 years, 6 months ago)
Lords ChamberIt was laying down general principles of natural justice and fairness—that is the point. I believe that they have an application for all these proceedings. The recommendations in the 1999 report do not stand alone. Incidentally, the membership of that committee was extraordinarily distinguished. It included not only Lord Nicholls of Birkenhead but a former Lord Chief Justice, a former Attorney-General, a former Solicitor-General and two former Home Secretaries. Their views were not lightly to be disregarded.
In substance, they were repeated in the 1995 report on standards in public life. Again, they are substantially the same as those made in 1967 by the Select Committee on Parliamentary Privilege—again, a different context, but with principles of general application. That committee recommended that the rights granted to a person against whom a complaint is made should include the right to examine, cross-examine and re-examine witnesses and to make submissions to the Committee, including by an authorised representative. In the spirit of due diligence—
Does the noble Viscount accept that none of the cases he is speaking about mentions sexual misconduct—as paragraph 4 of appendix 2 on page 18 points out? Did he hear the intervention by the noble Baroness, Lady Kennedy, which absolutely emphasised that standards of conduct have moved on and that the context to which he refers is not the context in which women today expect to be treated—and to which I should say men would probably also ascribe? Does he accept that the House wishes to move on and that his peroration, although enormously important, could perhaps be put to the committee in writing—not because we are disinterested in what he has to say but because I am sure the Senior Deputy Speaker will accept that there might be a consultation where we will all have the ability to express our views on future conduct? We are now dealing with the report in hand and it would be expeditious if Members could keep their speeches relatively brief so that those of us who also want to intervene might have an opportunity to do so today.
You are not just embarrassing yourself; you are embarrassing all of us.
All trials are trials for one’s life; all sentences are sentences of death. We are talking about a man who, until this case, was one of the giants of civil liberties, of sexual liberties—
(6 years, 7 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I will speak briefly on the report of the EU Select Committee on the withdrawal agreement, which was introduced in this debate yesterday by our chairman, the noble Lord, Lord Boswell. As I chair the sub-committee responsible for the EU budget and the financial settlement on withdrawal, I will say a word or two about that.
The UK Government estimate that the net cost of the bill will be in the region of £35 billion to £39 billion. This includes the cost of paying into the EU budget as if we were a full member for 21 further months after withdrawal, which would come to £16.3 billion according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. This leaves an exit bill of roughly £22.4 billion as the figure which has in effect been “negotiated” by the UK Government. We agree with the Government’s position that the UK needs to pay its dues. That is the right thing for the United Kingdom as a leading member of the international community to do. No one would ever trust our good faith if we were not prepared to fulfil our past obligations.
I turn to the possibility that, if this agreement fails, plan B would be the Norway-plus option. The EU Select Committee has looked at the EFTA/EEA options over various periods in the past year. While membership of the EEA gives full access to the single market, including for services, it requires complying with the four freedoms, including free movement of persons. Its proponents have talked up the fact that it offers a brake on free movement, but they do not tell us that the brake is so heavily circumscribed as to be virtually meaningless. In order to invoke it, one would have to demonstrate,
“serious, economic or societal difficulty”.
How would that be demonstrated? How, for example, would we define “societal difficulty”? Moreover, they tell us that this is a unilateral power. It is not; it has to be negotiated with other EEA partners. Those who lament the withdrawal agreement resulting in endless negotiation need to wake up to the fact that a state of negotiation is actually more desirable than being shut out of the room and getting your instructions by fax or email, as in the case so powerfully put by a Norwegian Minister in the Financial Times.
What of the tie to full regulatory alignment? The EEA comprises 6,000 legal Acts so far, since 1994. The UK would have to adopt approximately 300 per year without any say whatever in their formation. It is not entirely surprising that the Governor of the Bank of England felt the need to spell out that the UK’s financial services sector is unsuited to being a rule taker indefinitely. Which Government would render a sector that contributes 11% of GDP, which is 20 times bigger than Norway and has higher standards than the EU after lessons painfully learned after 2009, a rule taker? Which Government would be prepared to risk a country’s financial stability—moreover, its future prosperity—in the hands of EU technocrats without even being in the room? This has to be a complete travesty of the referendum result, and I entirely agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, in his description of the technical difficulties of even going into Norway, never mind Norway-plus.
However, the unattractiveness of Norway-plus does not end there. Its advocates need to dispense with fictions. Yesterday we were told on the “Today” programme that we would pay substantially less into the EU budget under this option. The reality, when the EU committee looked into this in March this year, is that Norway paid €115 per capita while the UK paid €79 per capita in 2015, the year for which we have the latest figures. Today the Library has confirmed to me that the figures for 2017 are that Norway paid £144 per capita while the UK paid £112 per capita. Naturally, we got a better deal because of our rebate and our incoming receipts from the EU. So the maths is straightforward, and it behoves the advocates of this option to be honest about that.
I turn to the “plus” part of Norway-plus: the need to stay in the customs union. The EU’s common commercial policy not only prevents us from doing trade deals but seriously circumscribes our ability to even engage with bilateral investment treaties. It also requires us to accept the parameters of future trade deals that the EU makes with other countries without us having a say in them or being able to represent our own interests, be they farming, fishing, goods or services. The word “vassalage” has been used a lot recently to describe the withdrawal agreement. I argue that the Norway-plus option, because of the complexity of our economy and the reach of our services, is where the more accurate description of the vassal state lies.
I conclude with a few thoughts on the calls for a second referendum that have been made across the Chamber in the last two days. I have read the 585 pages of the withdrawal agreement—not in absolute detail, but I can say that I have read it well. The idea that the country could be asked to make a choice and vote on the details of this agreement is with the fairies. That is not to disrespect the ability of the electorate; it is in fact because I respect the will of the electorate that I voted for the Government in triggering Article 50 and the withdrawal Act. But we now know what is on offer. We have had broad instructions from the electorate, and broad instructions are all that can be expected from a referendum question. The detail of it was always a task for Parliament, and that is where the responsibility should lie.
Should Parliament be unable to accept this agreement —although I will support it—there is a viable option. It would not involve disregarding the referendum result. Parliament has respected that. It has given the Government its approval for the Article 50 process and the withdrawal Act, both of which I supported. If Parliament does not agree with the outcome and with the Government’s best endeavours to secure a satisfactory deal for the UK, rather than reverting to another referendum, it should put to itself the question of whether the withdrawal of Article 50, but with the reversion to Mr Cameron’s deal, is the optimal outcome. The negotiation—which was quaintly titled A New Settlement for the United Kingdom Within the EU—provided far more benefits, even on free movement, than the Norway-plus option does, and it retained a special status for the UK, with all its privileges.
In conclusion, I advocate accepting the Government’s compromise withdrawal agreement. But, failing that, I would go for “Mr Cameron’s-plus” rather than Norway-plus. I will therefore follow the line of the noble Lord, Lord Butler of Brockwell, on the Motion.
(7 years, 2 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, this is a sober moment for this country because, although we are extremely relieved that the operation has been successful, we have not seen the threatened Russian retaliation yet, so the game is not over and it is time to reflect a little bit. I am concerned that the Statement repeated here said two things. One was that speed was essential, yet we took seven days. The definition of an emergency is a serious, unexpected and often dangerous situation demanding immediate action. The second thing we have been told today is that the House of Commons is not to be trusted. Despite assurances given by Mr Hague in 2011 and the assurances Mr Cameron gave after the Chilcot report in 2016, when he repeatedly told the other place that it would be extremely exceptional that the convention that had been agreed and established in both Houses would be disregarded, this week that convention has been disregarded. The Minister may know that I had a Private Member’s Bill to codify a war powers Act that would have allowed this action to go ahead had it been codified. Will the Government now go back and contemplate resolving this once and for all?
I am afraid I disagree with the noble Baroness’s question. We made a decision and there was a Written Statement a couple of years ago. The position remains that we will not be codifying the convention in law or by resolution of the House in order to retain the ability of this and future Governments and the Armed Forces to protect the security and interests of the UK in circumstances that we cannot predict and to avoid such decisions becoming subject to legal action. That is what we have stated and that remains our position.
(8 years, 4 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I need to make a few declarations. The first is that I have the privilege in this House of chairing the EU Financial Affairs Sub-Committee. I would say this, but in my opinion it is the most significant committee at this point in terms of the angles that it is looking at, such as financial services and the EU budget. My other declaration is more personal. I am married to a German, I have lived and worked in France, and I have a house in Italy. So I have a big dog in this fight, not a little whippet.
However, I have to tell the House that on the passage of this Bill I will be voting with the Labour Opposition and the Government Benches. Why do I take the position I do? It is not because I am any less a remainer today than I was on 23 June—I am every bit a remainer; as I explained, I have a deep and personal motivation to wish that the result of last June had not happened. But I believe that a second referendum entails risks for which the price is too high: too high for the country overall and too high for the other European countries. It has been stated that the people voted for a departure but not a destination. In my view, people had a very clear idea of the destination: the destination was a break from the EU. I agree that they did not know exactly what the terrain would look like, but they knew they were taking a risk.
A vote is always conducted on imperfect information. There is an inherent risk in any decision about the future, whether it is intervention in Syria or, as on this occasion, the EU. Take as an analogy the Scottish devolution referendum in 1998. At the time, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem unionists in Scotland were told that the electoral system was such that no single party could take power alone and so the nats would not be able to take power and re-open the independence question again. We all know how that turned out. Take the euro. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, voters in several EU states had a referendum on joining the currency. In their nightmares they could not have imagined the financial crisis and the banks too big to fail nearly bringing down the sovereigns. In Greece, Italy and indeed even in Germany, people could not have known what was to hit the euro in less than a decade. People always act on imperfect information.
The other reason why I believe that we now have to implement the result is the referendum Act of 2011. Let me remind the House that that Act commits us to a referendum if further powers or competencies are passed to the EU that entail treaty change. That is the current situation. There are people across this House who wished to try to defeat the Act—I was one of them—but we failed. We now have a situation where treaty change, driven by the exigencies of European integration, is inevitable. This House knows that the eurozone crisis, the security issue, the need for joint co-operation on immigration and a host of other things will bring the Europeans to the point at which they will need treaty change, if not in the next five years then in the next 10. We would have had to take this issue to the British people anyway, if not in 2016 then perhaps in 2026.
Let me turn now to the central purpose of the Bill, which is in effect to trigger Article 50. While it may be theoretically possible to revoke Brexit while the talks on the question are still going on over the next two years, politically we cannot revert to the status quo ante. It is contrary to what the other 27 countries of the EU envisage in terms of their understanding of Article 50: that in effect it is politically irrevocable.
Once we have passed this Bill, there is no longer any possibility of a negotiation where the UK could go into the talks again with a set of demands on the proviso that if they are not good enough we will have another referendum. I say “again” and “another”, because we have already done that. From 2013 a referendum was promised if the Conservatives won the election. After 2015 the Government spent a year renegotiating a new settlement with the EU, securing what I think was a very good settlement. However, we were not able to sell that to the people, and here we are.
The EU has seen the latest bout of UK-inspired disruption for six years now, since 2011, with at least a further two years to go. The idea that we can try the same thing again and again shows a profound misunderstanding of how the EU works and ignorance of our partners’ patience and preoccupations. They will not go into an Article 50 negotiation or give us any serious terms if they believe that we will prolong the agony, theirs and ours, with the risk that we might have the same result after another vote. In fact, the contrary is likely to happen, as there is already a view across the Channel that what we were offered last year was too generous. So to stop others from using the same ploy we are likely to lose some of our opt-outs and special exemptions. To keep united, the EU needs us to move on so that it can resolve the myriad problems confronting both the Union and us.
Janan Ganesh writing in the Financial Times today lays out a future for Britain’s relationship with the EU where we, the remainers, will have to mobilise, to make our case, and to wait for new relations to evolve. Bit by bit, the UK will have to renew its engagement with the EU if it is to thrive and not just survive. Pragmatism will be driven on that occasion by the voters themselves, again. He says:
“Brexit is an idea whose only effective rebuttal is its own implementation”.
It will take time and it will take patience. I hope to play my small role in the passage of this Bill.
(8 years, 8 months ago)
Lords Chamber
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the current state of negotiations of the Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement between the European Union and Canada; and what lessons they have drawn from these negotiations.
The UK remains fully supportive of CETA and of the EU’s wider trade agenda. We have been working closely with the Commission and other member states to enable signature of this agreement to take place, and negotiations are continuing in Brussels today. As noted by the Prime Minister, we are not looking to replicate a model that another country has; we want to ensure that we have the right deal for the United Kingdom.
I thank the noble Baroness for her reply. I wonder whether she recognises these words: Brexit,
“means immediately seeking Free Trade Agreements with the biggest prospective markets as fast as possible. There is no reason why many of these cannot be achieved within two years. We can pick up the almost complete agreement between the EU and Canada, and if anything liberalise it”.
In case she does not remember them, they were written on the website of Conservative Home by the current Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Mr David Davis. Do the Government still believe that their bespoke deal can be delivered in two years? What bilateral talks are they having with other EU member states to prevent the UK deal being a “mixed” agreement, needing ratification in over 30 assemblies and parliaments?
I thank the noble Baroness for that. I think that there were several questions there and I shall attempt to answer at least one of them. The UK is unique and the deal that we negotiate will be bespoke. The relationships that Canada and the UK have with the EU are very different. We are an EU member state, whereas Canada is not. The UK is an important market for the European Union and therefore an ongoing trading relationship is in the EU’s interests.
(9 years ago)
Lords ChamberI am not able to provide right now the data that the noble Lord has asked for on the economy. If I can, I will write to the noble Lord with that information. I would say to him again, and to the House as a whole, that we have a strong economy in this country, and it is because of that strong economy that we are in a good position to withstand whatever period of uncertainty we are about to endure.
My Lords, the noble Baroness tells the House that the empty chair today is not because of any legal issues but because it is an informal meeting. She will know that Nicola Sturgeon is meeting the Commission chairman, Mr Juncker, as well as the President of the European Parliament today. Is that an informal meeting as well? Is foreign affairs still a reserved matter, or will they have discussions with the Scottish Government over amending the Scotland Act and consultations about Brexit?
I can certainly confirm that foreign affairs is a reserved matter and that the UK’s relationship with the European Union is just that—the UK’s relationship with the European Union. The decision to leave was one taken by the United Kingdom as a whole. Future negotiations on our future relationship will be United Kingdom led. That said, the Prime Minister has been at pains to stress that, in this period—and, he hopes, that of his successor—the United Kingdom Government will consult the devolved Assemblies. We want to ensure the best result for all parts of the United Kingdom and this Government very much believe that that will be achieved if we consult them.
As for the noble Baroness’s points about empty-chairing discussions on this, that and the other, I point out to noble Lords that, in addition to attending the European Council yesterday, the Prime Minister held bilateral meetings with other members of the European Union, the President of the Commission and so on. He has said today that, while formal negotiations on the UK’s exit from the EU will be triggered by Article 50, which can be triggered only by the United Kingdom—and members of the European Union have made clear that, from their perspective, that is the point at which formal negotiations will start—that will not prevent discussions taking place bilaterally. That is something which he very much hopes his successor will continue.