Syria

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Monday 11th June 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, does my noble friend accept that while the Statement is extremely detailed and sets out where the Government believe they are, it is nevertheless a sign of the impotence of the international community that we have found ourselves in a position where the Russian Government have been able to propose an international conference in Syria which will undoubtedly push the situation into the long grass? That is not least because, as my noble friend repeated, the Statement says,

“it should only involve nations that are committed to being part of the solution in Syria”.

When we have Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have all been on different sides of the argument, arming combatants in the regions, it is hardly likely that they would be able to achieve a consensus behind the Annan plan or, particularly, to protect the rights of minorities in the region. Will my noble friend tell the House what we will do when that open-ended commitment to the Annan plan is dropped and what steps might we take? Would we then look to our own duties under the norms of responsibility to protect?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I understand my noble friend’s feelings, which are largely mine, that the Annan plan is not working and has to be reinforced. We think that is the pathway forward and that the principles behind it are right, but clearly the killing and the horror continue on a totally unacceptable, impossible and outrageous scale, so something more must now be tried. When my noble friend talks about nations not being committed, she should bear in mind that the one uncommitted nation actively promoting the arming of the Syrian regime is Iran. The Iranians are the ones who should not be included in any further conference, although it has been suggested by some that they are clearly actively opposed to any kind of path towards peace and settlement. That is what that phrase is really aimed at; that Iran is on the side of violence, and more violence.

I do not necessarily share my noble friend’s view that the talks with Russia and with the Chinese are never going to work and that there will never be some understanding that this cannot go on and that there must be a united effort to close up the loopholes and stop the arms supplies by the really big powers, such as Russia and so on. I do not share her view that this is an impossible aim. I do not say that we have got there but this has to be worked on, combined with all the other sanctions and proposals that we are now committed to, to end the violence and repression.

Syria

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Monday 28th May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

The noble Baroness is quite right that words are difficult and certainly condemnation alone is not enough. She speaks about the change in the Russian position. It is perfectly true that Russia has joined in condemnation of these revolting events—as all civilised and responsible nations must do—but the question goes beyond that, to whether the UN Security Council is prepared in a united way to take a variety of further actions, including referral to the ICC, tougher sanctions and other pressures. That requires the support of the Russians and the Chinese in the UN Security Council.

My right honourable friend is in Moscow and has had discussions this morning with Mr Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister. Various views have been set out by Mr Lavrov, and discussion continues internationally about exactly what happened and precisely who is to blame. But we are quite clear that the Annan plan, requiring an immediate laying-down of weapons on both sides and action by the Syrian Government to withdraw their heavy weapons and tanks from all the areas they have been bombarding, is an essential step to taking this forward. The key is to get agreement in the United Nations Security Council, and the key to that is what my right honourable friend is working on at this moment.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, can my noble friend tell the House whether there is any discussion within the Security Council, and indeed with the Syrian Government, to increase the number of UN monitors from 300 to potentially significant figures so that they may be able to carry out their tasks effectively?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes. My right honourable friend spoke to Kofi Annan over the weekend and they discussed increasing the size of the monitoring mission. It is just about coming up to its initially agreed 300 but there is certainly further discussion of whether a more effective and larger commission could be developed.

European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Bill [HL]

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, it is a pleasure in this Second Reading debate to follow the noble Lord, Lord Radice, whose expertise and passion about the European Union remains undiminished. I agree with a lot of what he said; I particularly agree with his comments regarding Germany’s need to incorporate and use its fiscal levers to bring about a greater boost to growth within Germany. I am glad to see in that context that the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, is in his place, and I hope that he will recall that I exhorted him to do precisely that last Thursday. Of course, in the intervening period the Prime Minister has come out saying many of those things himself, so it is a very good move. We are not preaching to the Germans; we are exhorting them to do what I think has considerable support in Germany itself, as the noble Lord, Lord Radice, mentioned, in terms of the Finance Minister.

I shall keep my remarks on the Bill very brief. With the informal European Union summit ahead of us tonight and the eurozone crisis continuing to unfold, there is little to be said about the Bill before us. It rightly allows for the eurozone countries to move forward to establish a permanent facility for those states that are in the eurozone. One could almost say that it has little to do with the UK, but also that it has everything to do with the UK. It is clearly and essentially in the United Kingdom’s national interest to have the European stability mechanism established as soon as possible, to enable the eurozone sovereign debt crisis to be dealt with through the creation of a permanent mechanism. We may quibble about whether the extent of capitalisation is sufficient—at 5% of eurozone GDP it would appear not, but it is certainly a step in the right direction. It also creates the possibility that should further capitalisation be required, other methods of raising finance, such as Eurobonds if politically acceptable to those countries—it is only about those countries in the eurozone—could be an option.

Let me come to the politics of the Bill here. Anyone who believes that there is some easy fix to the eurozone crisis through letting Greece default is mistaken. While our banking sector may not be significantly exposed to Greek banks which might fail, it is undoubtedly exposed to French, Spanish, and Italian banks which might be affected by their own exposures to Greek debt and the contagion effect thereon. We have, in effect, a banking sector that is still extremely fragile some four years after the financial crisis of 2008. However, it is not only the banking sector that would be affected. Half our trade is with the eurozone and a further 10% within the European Union as a whole. The eurozone’s GDP is projected to be in deficit in 2012—marginally so, to the tune of 0.1%, but nevertheless, the drag caused by fiscal consolidation or austerity measures is very palpable.

Unemployment is predicted to rise to 11% but it is significantly higher especially among the young—all factors that impact on domestic consumption within those countries. It is British business which will take a hit as the southern countries slide deeper into recession; it is young British workers who will face stiffer competition from well educated European nationals who will come here to seek work in the northern countries; and it is the British consumers who will face a drop in confidence as those in countries around them are deeply affected by the crisis. As a trading nation dependent on a large service industry, we cannot insulate ourselves from our neighbours in the European Union.

The Bill is a first step to stabilising the crisis, but the European stability mechanism must be accompanied by a pro-growth strategy through faster adjustment. If this results in greater fiscal and political integration, we should accept that that is the right way forward for those countries that have chosen to be in the eurozone. Thankfully, we are not in that position, but that does not mean that we do not have to engage with the developments as they inevitably happen. It will be a rocky path to get to a resolution of the crisis, but for now we on these Benches welcome this enabling measure.

Queen’s Speech

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Thursday 17th May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, let me start by congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Wood of Anfield, on his new responsibilities at the Dispatch Box. Given what we have just heard, one thing we can be sure of is that our foreign affairs debates in this House will become perhaps not less controversial but certainly more interesting.

I want to pick out one or two points from the gracious Speech on Afghanistan and the Middle East. We look forward to the NATO summit in Chicago next week and hope that the French will be persuaded to set aside their campaign promises to bring their nearly 4,000 troops home even sooner. The challenges of securing a stable Afghanistan have increased with the problematic situation in Pakistan, coupled of course with the intransigence of the Taliban. It was inevitable, once the US announced a date for drawdown in 2015, that combat troops from other countries within ISAF would seek to go earlier. If the American intention, beyond political domestic audiences, was to suggest to the Taliban that they could have their country back from 2014 and therefore sit it out, it has palpably failed as the body count continues to rise. Indeed, recent attacks in the centre of Kabul have demonstrated evidence of their capability to infiltrate the Afghan national army at its heart. The rise of green-on-blue attacks, where the numbers are already nearing those for the whole of last year, are clearly jeopardising the joint-training module. Our forces are to be congratulated on their success in upskilling the Afghan national security forces despite these setbacks.

Views have been divided about the extent to which the Taliban can be trusted to honour their commitments at the negotiating table. I confess to some optimism last year with the announcement of talks and the opening of a political office in Qatar, but the suspension of those talks is a setback that demonstrates that the younger and more radical Taliban have the upper hand for now. The danger persists that while they may not be strong enough to rule the country, it is now inevitable that after 2014 they will be strong enough to thwart constitutionalism and the rule of law, particularly where women’s rights and human rights are concerned.

With regard to our own situation in Afghanistan, I welcome the Government’s negotiations to expand the options available for our own withdrawal. The stakes are high for our own successful exit, with 9,500 UK troops and some $5 billion of equipment.

For a Liberal, it is difficult to countenance rewarding some of the nastiest human rights-abusing regimes in central Asia with contracts and treasure, but given the difficulties of the supply routes through Pakistan, it is pragmatic to have these options, not least to demonstrate to the Pakistanis that they are not the only game in town. Nevertheless, if Pakistan’s co-operation can be secured and the safety of our troops and materiel guaranteed, it is clearly in our interest to use the least expensive option that that provides. When my noble friend concludes his remarks, he might be able to tell us whether the Government’s talks with the Pakistani Prime Minister earlier this week were fruitful in this regard.

I turn to the situation in Syria. After 14 months of violence, with tens of thousands killed and injured, we still find ourselves in a stalemate. Despite the Annan plan and the so-called ceasefire, the Assad regime continues to kill its own people, often within view of the monitors, and is slowly succeeding in doing what the Serbs did in Bosnia: giving false assurances, bidding for time, scaling down activity while monitors are around and then cracking down brutally when their backs are turned—in other words, to be assured that, with the protection of Russia, things can be strung along long enough for progress to be made on the ground to wipe out the resistance. I therefore regret that Mr Putin has decided not to attend the G8 at Camp David. A disengaged Russia does itself no credit and endangers its legitimacy on the United Nations Security Council.

We cannot stand aside and let this situation continue until an exhausted Syrian people simply give up. Too much blood has been shed for them to go back passively to life under this regime, and the infiltration of the real terrorists in the shape of al-Qaeda has begun. The American academic Anne-Marie Slaughter is right to call for the UN to up its game. One of the things that she proposes it might do is set up a recording unit of the atrocities as a means of delegitimising the violence. Bearing witness through the recording of acts of violence and the images of the people who commit them will allow for justice to be done when the worst individuals are brought to trial through the International Criminal Court.

Diplomatic recognition is also an important element of sanctions, along with the others that this Government have initiated through the Security Council. I want to press them further on the actions that they can take against the Assad family. Have we considered withdrawing Asma al-Assad’s passport? I appreciate that she is a UK citizen by birth, but I believe that she also carries a Syrian passport. In this case would it not be a powerful symbolic and judicial step to indicate that her complicity in the regime’s atrocities make her an unworthy carrier of UK citizenship? I wonder whether we have taken legal advice in that regard.

Can my noble friend also update us on progress to form the various opposition groups based in Turkey and France into a cohesive opposition force in exile? We should accept that after decades of authoritarianism it will take time for a democratic political culture to emerge where there has been so much distrust. However, Syrians must themselves realise that when they seek democracy they must demonstrate a cohesiveness of intent and a steadfastness of purpose in the greater interests of their country.

In conclusion, let me pick up an observation made by the noble Lord, Lord Wood of Anfield. He expressed disappointment about the modesty of this Government’s foreign policy. I say to him respectfully that, given that his party took this country into two major wars in under two years, a little modesty would probably be welcomed in this country by our own people at this point.

Eurozone

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Wednesday 16th May 2012 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of political developments in the eurozone after recent changes of Governments.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, the eurozone crisis is having a real impact on economic growth across the European continent as well as in Britain. Eurozone leaders have to do whatever is necessary to stand behind their currency and resolve the crisis. However, these decisions must be made in conjunction with the democratic wishes of people across the eurozone.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

I thank my noble friend for that reply. Does he agree that conditions in several eurozone countries—huge rises in unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, and significant falls in living standards—are resulting in the rise of right-wing parties in particular, as seen in the most recent democratic elections, and putting democracy under strain? Will he tell the House whether the Prime Minister, when he next goes to the European Council, will support pro-growth measures, including additional funding for the European Investment Bank if necessary, so that European countries, as well as the UK, can get back on the right track?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend is quite right: youth unemployment is a blight and a very serious issue everywhere, not least in this country as well as throughout Europe and many economies in the Middle East. The problem is general. My noble friend raised two points. She mentioned the European Investment Bank and the possibility of expanding its activities. This is a possibility and may well be discussed. As a broader point, she posed the question of austerity versus growth, as though they were opposites. The reality is that this polarised choice is a complete myth. Unless we can control our budgets effectively and run them with fiscal discipline, there will be no growth. There will instead be still further inflation, undermining the very growth that we want to see. A balance must be struck. It is not a choice; it is a balance.

Pakistan

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Monday 14th May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that the issue of contempt of court by the Prime Minister is dealt with very adequately in the Commonwealth Latimer House guidelines, which refer to the relationship between the Executive, Parliament and the judiciary? Pakistan is a signatory to those guidelines, which were agreed by the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in 2003. Will the Minister tell the House whether the Government are assisting with judicial training in that regard, so that the Pakistani judiciary can be better apprised of its responsibilities?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, we are assisting with judicial training and huge educational programmes. The Government’s overall training and aid programmes in Pakistan are substantial. If the path is smooth over the next two years, Pakistan will reach the remarkable level of being the largest recipient of British aid, training and technical assistance, with a sum of around £446 million a year being given if everything goes according to plan. Certainly, on the judicial side, yes, these are areas where we can help and which can be assisted and reinforced in a Commonwealth context as well.

Libya

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Monday 19th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We are at the same point as we were a moment ago: it is different in different countries. I agree that certain responsibilities are required. If the outside world decides to intervene, whether for humanitarian reasons to prevent a massacre or because there is open, recognised and legally agreed international pressure to change a regime, those who intervene must have some responsibility for the regimes that follow. These are agonising decisions, which are different in every case. They are currently very prominent in Syria, where we see hideous atrocities unfolding. The question of how those who care for human life and want to uphold civilisation should best intervene is very difficult, as I know the noble Lord fully understands from his previous responsibilities.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that democracy is a far better protector of diversity and pluralism within societies than tribalism, particularly if tribalism leads to conflict?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

That is unquestionably so. This is the issue that we are now discussing. Libya was and remains a country with many different tribal groups, not all of which necessarily live in tight geographical locations. They are often rather mixed up. Many different forces are at work in Libya, but overall, as a democracy, it is our advice to other democracies that their future will be best assured by pursuing the democratic method.

I should add that the recent survey of what has happened in Libya leaves us with figures that show that 97 per cent of Libyans think that the revolution was absolutely right; 66 per cent support a semi-centralised Government, with ministries spread across Libya; and 79 per cent expect their lives to better a year from now. These are pretty decisive figures, which indicate that if we push for more democracy we are all on the right lines.

Middle East

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, I, too, thank the Minister for his expansive coverage of the countries of the Middle East in today’s debate. I will focus on only three countries. Noble Lords will note the expansive talent on these Benches and several colleagues will comment on other parts of the region. My focus will be on Iran, Israel and Syria. All three are interlinked in a more complex manner than just being geographically proximate.

Let me go directly to the most intractable foreign policy issue in recent times—namely, the concern that Iran is moving towards a nuclear weapons capability. The latest IAEA report of November 2011 concluded that this remained a possibility; hence the belated move towards strong sanctions by the international community. We know that Israel considers the idea of a nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat. I respect that concern and would say to it that its concerns are well understood beyond its own borders. We are all aware of the dangers of nuclear proliferation across the Middle East, as may well happen if the NPT is wantonly disregarded by Iran. We are also aware, however, that Israel stands on shaky moral ground when, as a nuclear weapon state itself, it seeks, potentially through the use of force, to prevent another state’s programme, especially where the stated purpose of that programme is civilian nuclear development.

Even if we were to accept that Iran is moving towards a nuclear threshold state—the jury is still out on that—we know from experience elsewhere that reaching a nuclear threshold is not to say that it is anything other than a deterrent position. If we look at North Korea versus South Korea, India versus Pakistan, or, indeed, the United States versus the Soviet Union during the Cold War, it is not to say that this situation is sui generis. We have unhappily lived alongside states which have had nuclear weapon capability and which face hostile neighbours. Thankfully, we have reached a modus operandi within those constraints.

I appreciate too that opinion in Israel is divided on the use of military strikes against Iran. In fact, my Israeli interlocutors have gone beyond the terminology of using phrases such as “military strikes” and have spoken candidly about “war”. It is clear that the experts in intelligence and the military itself in Israel are more conscious of the unpredictability of war against Iran, arguing publically as the retired head of Mossad, Mier Dagan, has done that this could result in a new catastrophic Middle East war. Therefore, it is with some relief that one reads in the Israeli press that a powerful new coalition is forming around his view to counter the politicians in their drumbeat to war.

Let me also address the other argument often deployed in Israel; namely, that sanctions are not working or that they are not working fast enough. Smart sanctions have worked in the past and are increasingly effective against Iran. Iran has started stockpiling grain reserves to pre-empt future food shortages. We now have the implementation of controls on financial transactions through SWIFT, which serves as a crucial conduit for Iran to repatriate billions of dollars worth of earnings from oil sales and other exports, which is already having an impact here and now. Major foreign exchange houses in the United Arab Emirates have stopped handling the Iranian rial over the past few weeks. This has resulted in a depreciation of more than 50 per cent in its value. Countries which are dependent on Iranian oil have quietly moved to other suppliers and inflation in domestic prices is biting.

Domestically, the Iranian political dust is settling since the 2 March elections to the Majlis. If, as looks likely, Ayatollah Khamenei’s supporters prevail, this may well not be a bad thing from the international community’s perspective. The Ayatollah’s fatwa ruling that the use of nuclear weapons is completely contrary to the teachings of Islam has been reiterated as recently as in the last few weeks. This, too, should provide reassurance to Israel. It is perhaps no coincidence that Iran has finally agreed to a return to the P5-plus-one talks. It is now imperative that it allows further IAEA inspections to go ahead, particularly to allow access to the Parchin nuclear facility, as it has announced it will do.

Let me turn now to the situation in Syria. As a Liberal who is committed to the emerging norm of Responsibility to Protect, it is with some regret that I conclude that any form of western military engagement is out of the question. Syria is not Libya. The humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Syria has deep geopolitical roots. This is a civil war by proxy. We know of Russia’s strategic interest in Syria, not least as it has a naval base at Tartus, and 10 per cent of its total global arms sales are to Syria, where Russian shipments continue unabated. We know, too, about the long-standing Russian-Saudi Arabian rivalry, not least during the years of communism and then more recently in Afghanistan. The alignment of Russian and Iranian Shia interests against those of Sunni Islam is all too evident. The re-election of Mr Putin in Russia does not help either, and all indications are that we are in this for the long haul.

Hence it is so regrettable that Qataris and Saudi Arabia have resolved to take up arms shipments to the Free Syrian Army. The proposal of the Tunisian president at the recent Friends of Syria meeting was to resolve the situation through the negotiation of a safe exit for Bashar al-Assad and the formation of a transitional government. It should have been discussed further. It was a proposal worth exploring, and it is regrettable that the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister walked out of the meeting at that point. The proposal to add arms to the conflict cannot be one designed to put out the fire.

The fact that these external factors are resulting in the sacrifice of the lives of innocent civilians does not for a minute exonerate the Syrian leadership of its responsibility for these crimes, and while we cannot do more than move for sanctions through the UN Security Council, we must do more to make the sanctions bite. Like Iran, it might actually prepare the ground for the beginning of negotiations to a ceasefire. All we can do at the moment is to hope that the efforts of the former UN Secretary General will bear fruit. If they do not, we have in the EU to think again collectively, and in the UK individually, as to our own responsibility in this humanitarian tragedy.

Syria

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Tuesday 13th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My Lords, I am sure that that approach is right, but the difficulty is, as Mr Kofi Annan himself has found in his most recent discussions with Bashar al-Assad, that the Syrian President seems very reluctant to move from his present policy of giving certain reassurances while the violence and killing carry on. That is the difficulty. As the noble Lord knows, Mr Lavrov was there, accompanied by other senior Russian officials. They thought that they could get some undertakings from Bashar al-Assad; and, indeed, words were given. However, even while they were speaking, the killing was continuing. So I am afraid that at the moment, while one appreciates that there has to be a twin track of trying to get this man, this president, to desist from his all-out violence of the most atrocious kind, all efforts by Kofi Annan and others have so far not proved successful. This remains the line to go forward. We are working with the Russian and Chinese officials and ambassadors, and with the United Nations, to make them see that we must have a combined approach.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that in bringing Russia to the table it is important to recognise that Saudi Arabia’s and Qatar’s attempts to arm the rebels will only prolong the conflict, not help to bring it to an end? Does he further agree that Russia’s long-standing animosity to Saudi Arabia, not least as regards Afghanistan, will not make it come to the table unless we reduce the arms and hostility going into the conflict from other players?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend may be right. The Arab League as a whole has taken a strong lead. Some members of the Arab League—my noble friend mentioned Qatar and Saudi Arabia—say that they want to go further and provide arms. We are not sure at this moment whether they are doing so. They may have a case for taking that action in particular areas. However, our general approach is the same as that of my noble friend. We believe that the best course is to try to get peaceful transition, to get both sides to desist from the killing, and particularly and obviously to get the Syrian Government to desist from their atrocious and murderous attacks on communities in Homs and other cities. That must be the approach. Pouring in arms on a large scale would certainly not help.

Middle East: Quartet

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Tuesday 28th February 2012 Lords Chamber

Asked By

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the role and future of the Middle East quartet.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)]

My Lords, the Government remain determined to do everything possible to achieve a comprehensive peace in the Middle East. We believe the quartet still has an important role in achieving this.

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

Given the breakdown of talks on 26 January, in the last iteration, and given that one side to the talks has no confidence whatever in the representative of the quartet—to the extent that they will not even shake his hand at the meetings—and that the other side in the talks flagrantly disregards the representative’s deadlines for submissions and proposals, can the Government really stick to the view that they have complete confidence in the future of the quartet? Is my noble friend aware of President Sarkozy’s comment that the quartet is dead—

“Let’s stop kidding ourselves”?

Will my noble friend tell the House what proposals the Government have to put the quartet on a new footing under new leadership?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

We all share my noble friend’s disappointment at the slowness of progress in the Middle East peace process and the difficulties that are being encountered—as well as at the suspension of the talks in Amman, although they have only been suspended and not abandoned altogether. However, I think that she is a shade harsh in her general judgment. We pay tribute to the efforts of Mr Blair and others in improving the situation on the ground in occupied Palestine, but one must be realistic: the quartet alone cannot achieve the progress that we all want to see. Such progress can happen only if the will is there, but the will is not present on all the necessary sides in the peace process to make progress along the road map. If the will is not there, the quartet cannot achieve the impossible.