Trade and Investment in Scotland

Tuesday 24th June 2014 Westminster Hall

16:43

[Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship once again, Mr Hollobone.

I begin by praising the contribution that exporters of services and manufactured goods in Scotland make to our economy and the jobs that they sustain and support. Scotland, as part of the United Kingdom, is an open economy that is welcoming to investment from overseas, but it is also self-confident in expanding its role as a source of exports. When I speak to manufacturers in my constituency, whether Promat, engaged in exporting construction materials to the US and the rest of the EU, or Gaia-Wind, the fastest growing small or medium-sized enterprise in Scotland and the eighth-fastest growing SME in the UK, I see for myself the potential that exists in our country to rebalance our economy as a trading powerhouse and to rebuild our jobs market to grow the construction and skilled manufacturing sectors that suffered hugely in the global downturn from 2008.

I pay tribute to the continuing role that the Scottish Food and Drink Federation plays in growing our export markets. The industry has an annual export turnover exceeding £5.4 billion, employs nearly one in four of the Scottish work force and sustains 1,200 businesses. Four fifths of that contribution was made by whisky exports, which generated £4.3 billion for the Scottish economy last year, with 140 million cases of whisky exported to 200 markets across the globe. There is a good story to tell about how, against the odds in recent years, Scottish manufacturing exports have been an economic success story, growing by 1.9% last year.

Notwithstanding that, whether it is in Piketty symposia in the Houses of Parliament or on the doorsteps of Blackhill, Springburn, Robroyston or Roystonhill in my constituency last weekend, the message is the same: something is wrong in our economy. It is not working as it should, as is shown by its failure to return the effort that people put in at work to their pay cheques at the end of the week or month, and the insecure nature of the jobs that are being generated.

The UK’s balance of trade position, when compared with key EU and non-EU trading partners, has worsened in the past year, with strong performance in financial and other services offset by a weakening in the position on goods. There are important lessons to learn on improving the support that the Government provide to exporters, as well as on the need for certainty about Britain’s place in the world, principally through the pivotal role we play as a member state of the European Union, but also in the decision that people in Scotland will make in just over 90 days’ time: whether or not to remain part of the United Kingdom. I will address each of those in turn.

The most recent economic commentary released by the Fraser of Allander Institute identifies an unbalanced recovery as one of the key threats to the recovery being sustained in Scotland. It confirms that household consumption, through a decline in the savings ratio and the bundling on of more private debt, is driving a large portion of GDP growth. Business investment remains patchy and the prospects for export growth are mixed. Even allowing for the summer’s disruption at Grangemouth, net trade made a negative contribution to Scottish GDP last year in comparison with 2012. With the pound appreciating in value and demand in the eurozone remaining weak, it is clear that the Government, through UK Trade & Investment, should be doing more and working more proactively with small and medium-sized companies to help expand their export markets.

The Fraser of Allander Institute also finds that investment spending stagnated in Scotland in 2012 and 2013. Although confidence among small businesses in Scotland is rising, and the intent to invest more is evident, that is not yet translating into actual higher investment by firms in new plant machinery, research or technology, which are all required if we are to end a low productivity crisis in the Scottish economy. Many exporting manufacturers find access to finance remains among the biggest impediments to expanding their businesses. In a recent round table on finance, to which I contributed, Professor John Kay put forward the argument that since 2008 the pipelines in the financial system by which capital can be invested for productive economic purposes have not been functioning as they should.

We have seen one rabbit after another pulled out of the hat by the Chancellor, but we do not see investment actually rising. If we are to match the record on long-term investment enjoyed by countries like South Korea and Germany, we need to adopt some of their thinking about the pipelines needed to boost investment. The Government should be reforming our banking sector to create a proper infrastructure investment bank, modelled on the successful KfW in Germany, or similar institutions in South Korea and the US, and capable of financing long-term productive business investment. It should draw on the example of the Sparkassen in Germany to create regional banks focused on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. It is only by constructing proper pipelines for capital that we will we see a long-term expansion in private sector business investment for Scotland and the United Kingdom.

Scotland is second only to London within the UK in its attractiveness for inward investment, but Ernst & Young’s latest survey found that the number of jobs created in the past year was lower than the year before, principally in manufacturing. There is more that this Government and the Scottish Government should be doing together to improve Scotland’s position, particularly in relation to inward investment from emerging economies.

As well as the skills of our work force, among the most important reasons for our strong position on inward investment is our membership of two connected, successful single markets: the United Kingdom and the European Union. Our membership of the EU sustains nearly 4 million jobs in the UK, according to the latest assessment by the CBI, and provides access to and influence over a single market of 500 million people. Our exporters would benefit from a successfully negotiated transatlantic trade and investment partnership because of our position at the heart of Europe. When the Prime Minister launches his increasingly unsuccessful short-term forays into EU diplomacy, for all the short-term defeats that he suffers, he puts at jeopardy long-term investment into this country because of weak leadership on Britain’s opportunities and our destiny within Europe.

Similarly, Scotland at the heart of a reformed United Kingdom is good for our exporters and best for investment. Nearly 340,000 people in Scotland are employed by companies based outside Scotland. Exporters benefit from an unrivalled network of diplomatic and trade links with the United Kingdom, with 270 diplomatic outlets and 169 for trade, compared with only 70 to 90 envisaged by the Scottish Government in their White Paper for independence.

We also enjoy the strength of 29 votes on the Council of the EU, required to drive the changes in fisheries policy that will benefit the fishing industry in Scotland, and we are able to shape decisions on international institutions from the G7 to the World Trade Organisation. WTO membership matters hugely to our exporters, because it guarantees low or no-tariff trade with 170 countries—no ifs, no buts and no need to negotiate individual bilateral trade agreements.

Just imagine if there were a yes vote in September. What would the practical consequences be? If it wanted to be in the EU, Scotland would have to adopt a different currency, creating an immediate barrier to trade and investment from the United Kingdom. The potential loss of hard-won VAT exemptions and zero ratings on food, children’s clothing and books, as part of the conditions for joining the EU as a new member state, would create further barriers for Scottish exporters and investors from elsewhere in these islands. A 1% fall in exports by Scotland to the rest of the UK equates to £450 million in reduced sales.

Scotland would have to replicate, at great cost, institutions that we currently share with people across these islands, adding costs for businesses protecting intellectual property, to provide just one example. Scotland would have to reapply for membership of the World Trade Organisation. The shortest recorded period for entry was Kyrgyzstan, at just under three years to conclude its chapters of agreement. An independent Scottish Government would have to negotiate its way back into the WTO, while our competitors used that period of uncertainty to promote their own domestic products against ours. What would tariffs applied by some of our major non-EU markets to Scottish goods in the period we were outside the WTO mean for jobs in our exporting industries in Scotland?

If we want the best future for exports and investment in Scotland, we are strongest within the United Kingdom and the European Union. If we make the right decision in September and follow long-term policies to boost exports, Scotland can have a prosperous future that will bring the fruits of economic growth to all its people.

[Mr Philip Hollobone (in the Chair)]

I understand that the Minister has flown back from Scotland especially for the debate. He will be delighted to know that he has 20 minutes for his response and the debate will finish no later than 5.15.

16:55

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Scotland (David Mundell)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Hollobone. I know from your frequent appearances at Scottish questions that you take a keen interest in Scotland. I congratulate the hon. Member for Glasgow North East (Mr Bain) on securing the debate, on an important subject. The Government’s policy on trade and investment is a key building block of our growth strategy, and that holds as true for Scotland as it does for the whole UK. I noted the hon. Gentleman’s comments on access to finance and will convey them to my colleagues in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Treasury. I share his concerns about what a yes vote would mean for our membership of the EU and will touch on that later.

When it comes to international trade and investment, as part of the United Kingdom Scottish businesses currently enjoy the best of both worlds—the local expertise of the Scottish Government’s trade and investment agency Scottish Development International, plus the international reach and reputation of the UK and UK Trade & Investment. In Scotland, UKTI works closely with Scottish Development International, which delivers trade services on the ground to local Scottish businesses and organisations. Scottish companies have access to both UKTI services and those provided by SDI. As part of our commitment to ensure that that close working relationship continues to deliver the best for Scottish exporters, in autumn 2012 the then Secretary of State for Scotland asked Brian Wilson, the former Scotland Office Minister, to conduct an independent review of support for Scottish exporting. His report was published last month.

The Wilson report identified many of the positives for business that come from Scotland’s being part of the UK, including the value that Scottish businesses place on the work of SDI and UKTI as a whole. The report suggests, however, that all agencies offering support to exporters need to work together better to deliver a seamless service to businesses, if they are to maximise success. The Government will study the recommendations to help us consider how best to do that. That is part of the UK Government’s continuous work to get the best from the services that they provide to business.

Of course, within the UK we currently benefit from a fully integrated open market. As the Wilson report says,

“it is critical to Scotland’s exporters—including those who currently sell to the rest of the United Kingdom—that their interests, such as having a fully integrated regulatory system and being border-free, are at the forefront of that debate.”

The UK Government have this week delivered to every household in Scotland a booklet entitled, “What staying in the United Kingdom means for Scotland”. There are sections headed, “By staying in the United Kingdom, Scotland’s public services are more affordable” and “By staying in the United Kingdom, your money is safe and goes further.” In the section entitled, “By staying in the United Kingdom, Scotland has a strong voice in the world”, we summarise something highlighted in the Wilson report:

“Companies based in Scotland have access to UKTI’s network of more than 1,200 staff”—

in 169 offices—

“in over 100 overseas markets working to support UK businesses. This is part of the UK’s wider diplomatic and consular network of over 220 locations, which also is able to help UK businesses, including those from Scotland”.

The Scottish Government propose a much smaller network, a third of the size that the UK currently has. That would be a major decrease in the presence and impact overseas that Scotland exerts as part of the UK. Yet they suggest that independence will be good for Scotland’s voice in the world. In their passion for independence, SNP leaders will say anything to make it sound easy, but as I am sure the Scottish people know, if it sounds too good to be true, it usually turns out to be so.

Last year, UKTI helped almost 2,000 firms in Scotland to export. Let us take one example. Exports are vital to the success of Scotland’s impressive food and drink sector, which the hon. Gentleman rightly highlighted. Cutting overseas support on this great scale would be a backward step for that industry. Together we can sell our products and services to the world more effectively against international competition. UKTI also works closely with UK Export Finance, which makes doing business overseas both more accessible and safer for Scottish firms by offering trade finance and insurance in case an overseas partner defaults. The Scottish Government have no plans to match that service, despite the fact that it can help to reduce the risk for Scottish firms as they do business overseas by spreading the risk across the broad shoulders of the United Kingdom.

On inward investment, UKTI promotes the whole of the UK overseas to potential foreign investors. That is another example of Scotland getting the best of both worlds, because, in addition, the Scottish Government and SDI promote the individual benefits of Scotland. UKTI helped to land three quarters of the inward investment projects that generated 13,500 jobs in Scotland last year. Our GREAT campaign has contributed to that, promoting businesses, tourism and education in Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland. We are looking to make that work even more successful by making the most of the international focus that will be on the hon. Gentleman’s city for the Commonwealth games this summer.

The UK Government are working both with the Scottish Government on a joint international business conference to be held during the games period and through the British business house, to be based in Glasgow city chambers. As the hon. Gentleman knows, that is a very impressive venue, and we are most grateful to the leader and members of Glasgow city council for their support of that venture. UKTI will be using those events to promote and support British businesses, both in Scotland and across the whole UK.

Looking at trade policy more widely, in the spirit of Adam Smith, we can use our influence to push for free trade in the wider world. I noted carefully the hon. Gentleman’s comments about the WTO. I did not know about the minimum period that it had taken a new member to enter that organisation and I am very glad that he got that on the record, because, as he knows, those of us taking part in debates in Scotland about separation are often told that everything will happen seamlessly and automatically. To have a tangible example is most helpful.

The UK is using its global reach to lower market barriers and promote Scottish produce overseas. Whisky is a prime example. The UK is working to open markets and reduce tariffs on Scotch all around the world. Last year, we worked with the whisky industry to bring down barriers in 12 countries. As the chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association said in its annual review,

“we rely on effective support from government in our overseas markets...The Scottish Government White Paper envisages a network of 70 to 90 overseas missions, but we export to around 200 markets. A diplomatic network with the necessary geographic footprint, expertise, and influence...will continue to be essential.”

As the hon. Gentleman said, a particular concern of the Scotch whisky industry is the status of the agreements currently in place, particularly with countries such as India and China. What would the status of those agreements be in the hiatus period between Scottish independence and Scotland’s full membership of the EU, or would they have to be negotiated from scratch? That is of significant concern to the industry and, as with so many aspects of the independence debate, no answers are forthcoming from those who propose separation.

An independent Scottish state would face tough choices about its international priorities. It would be a lengthy, expensive process for Scotland to set up its own diplomatic, consular, trade and other international services— a support structure the UK already has in place—to work for its businesses and nationals all over the world. The argument is not whether Scotland could do so in due course; no doubt it could. The argument at the heart of our referendum campaign is whether it would be better for Scotland to do so or to continue to work in the effective way provided by the UK’s diplomatic, consular and trading arrangements.

The most recent economic analysis shows that Scotland’s economic recovery as part of the UK is going strong. The Fraser of Allander Institute notes that the Scottish economy has been growing for seven consecutive quarters and that the growth rate rose at 1.6% throughout 2013, while the Scottish ITEM Club has revised its forecast for Scottish economic growth upwards by 0.7 percentage points and now expects the Scottish economy to grow by 2.4% this year.

As the hon. Gentleman will know, in the past the Scottish Government have placed a lot of weight on exporting to China and on the views of the Chinese Government. Recently, however, they do not seem to be so much in agreement with the Chinese Government, perhaps because the Chinese Premier, when asked about the referendum on his visit to the United Kingdom, said that he wanted a “united United Kingdom”. I think that that sums it up well. He is the latest in an ever-growing list of world leaders who have made it clear how much rests on the referendum.

We want the best for Scotland. The Government and the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland believe that Scotland is better off in the UK and that the UK is better off with Scotland in it. We do not need to go through a painful separation. As a United Kingdom, we have the best of both worlds, working together to help international trade and investment in Scotland to thrive. For many of the reasons that the hon. Gentleman has set out in this important debate, we wish and need to remain together. That is why, for reasons of international trade as well as a host of others, I will be urging my fellow Scots to say “No thanks” on 18 September.

Question put and agreed to.

17:08

Sitting adjourned.