Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill

Monday 11th February 2013 Lords Chamber

Second Reading (Continued)

18:46

[Lord Brooke of Sutton Mandeville]

My Lords, I was never a good enough cricketer to have played all-day cricket before I was 20 but, thereafter, I played it for another 40 years, and I can still recall vividly how being the first batsman to face the bowling after the lunch interval was always a tribulation. On this occasion, I am conscious that it was the close of the innings of the noble Lord, Lord Low of Dalston, that occasioned the interval, but it remains very much a privilege to share membership of your Lordships’ House with him. On any matter, I should, in cricketing terms, always give him the benefit of the doubt. In the mean time, the lunch interval has been surprisingly long, but I assume that there is a possibility, as sometimes happens in English cricket, that snow has affected the wicket.

The precise subject of the Bill is a new wicket for me to play on. I do not think that it is mandatory for me to declare an interest but, once upon a time, I was a Treasury Minister for nearly four years. Among the seven Treasury colleagues with whom I shared the ministerial responsibilities in those years, I was the only one who had never worked in the City, although I was, for 24 years, its MP. My noble friend Lord Lawson of Blaby was generous in involving us all in the gestation of Budgets but, in practical terms, my direct responsibilities might have been described as Treasury housekeeping, with all three main subjects being housekeeping oriented, and I had up to a dozen minor ones, including—perhaps unexpectedly—the Central Office of Information. It is quite possible that no one else in your Lordships’ House knows the origin of the ministerial concept of “the line to take”, except the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield—and he knows only because I told him. However, it was the Treasury that thought of the policy first.

The only relevance to today’s business that I can detect from those years is that the EU budget Council, on which I sat for all my Treasury days, had methods of computation every bit as complicated as those in the Bill. It is a nice complement to the Bill, and to my noble friends in charge of it, to have had today’s Statement, which has enabled us to get our eye in. However, my remarks will be brief.

The great excitement on the Bill relates to whether the noble Lord, Lord McKenzie of Luton, can be seduced during its passage through your Lordships’ House into sharing with us how the official Opposition propose to handle the problem that the Bill addresses, for which they were in no small degree responsible for creating. I lived through the 1969 to 1971 recession running a business in New York City, of which my chief memory is the “news in brief” item in the Wall Street Journal to the effect that the best index of the recession’s severity was that the Mafia had had to lay off two judges in New Jersey. However, I acknowledge that running anything during a recession is not in itself amusing.

I do not know how many others in the Chamber of your Lordships’ House today have had the stamina to watch the video which is currently available on one’s PC within the Palace through the kindness of MoneyWeek. It raises all sorts of financial nightmares that lie ahead of us. I stayed with it till it reached its conclusion only because I wanted to see how it would end and I was unsurprised when it concluded with a hard sell to buy MoneyWeek and its attendant publications. To conjure up a quasi-Richter scale of nightmare, it had to be painfully repetitious but from Lloyd George’s 1909 legislation onwards, no Administration avoided some of MoneyWeek’s blame.

A more elegant prospectus was advanced by the article in the Times below the day’s cartoon on 17 January this year by its accomplished columnist Camilla Cavendish. Those who have approached Horse Guards on Whitehall from the Embankment will know that, pausing at the traffic lights when red at the Whitehall junction, enables one to read the Cavendish family motto on the back of a statue to the Duke of Devonshire, who served in Gladstone’s Cabinet: “Cavendo tutus”, a play on words meaning secure by being cautious. It promises well. I shall quote a single opening sentence and three paragraphs from her article, which was on current welfare expenditure. They will be marginally edited for clarity. The opening sentence reads:

“As the debate about welfare rolls on, … it is … revealing that far more working people get their income topped up by benefits than most of us ever imagined”.

The first paragraph I want to quote states:

“There is no official figure for exactly how many [working people] are on benefits. But what is clear is that their numbers increased dramatically under the previous Government: from 700,000 when Labour took office in 1997 to 4.7 million on the equivalent entitlements in 2010, rising to between 6 and 7 million people, once housing benefit and council tax benefit are included … in a period that was, for much of it, one of unprecedented prosperity”.

The second paragraph I wish to quote states:

“In the good times, it was possible to fudge the decision about which aim—rewarding work or rewarding children—should take priority. Now the decision is unavoidable. The coalition has broadly decided to prioritise work through the Universal Credit system, which aims to make paid work more worthwhile. But it is also sensitive to the risk that the rising cost of living is entrenching poverty. Until it imposed the 1 per cent cap last week”—

that was the week of 7 January—

“the coalition had continued its predecessor’s policy of uprating benefits in line with inflation”.

The third and final paragraph I want to quote—the last paragraph of her article—states:

“Poverty campaigners know that the public is unsympathetic to adults who don't want to work, so they have shifted the argument to defending welfare benefits for the low-paid. But the explosion in numbers in the past 15 years makes it difficult to defend the status quo”.

That concludes my quotations from that article.

When the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, whom I am delighted to see in her place, chose and opened a debate on housing in the autumn of 2010, I said that I thought that subject, and those that we are debating today, were potentially the key endeavours of this Government. I reiterated that at the time of the Pensions Bill and the Welfare Reform Bill. I am without expertise in these matters but I regard them as so important that I sought to learn by attendance at the majority of Grand Committee proceedings on the Welfare Reform Bill where matters were, in my view, most admirably conducted throughout, although without, in cricketing parlance, my much troubling the scorer myself. However, I shall do the same on this Bill—this time, I gather, in this Chamber.

The great Claud Cockburn in his engaging memoirs said that the world was divided between those who preferred surprises and those who liked things to turn out as they expected. By illustration, he said that, if he were ever caught in an Alpine snowstorm, the mere sight of a St Bernard would restore his morale, even if the cask around its neck was empty of cognac.

I shall go into Committee with an open mind and recognition that the Bill can perhaps be technically improved but in the hope that we shall learn more than a little of the Official Opposition’s intentions, which the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, implied would be more thoughtful than political. She must forgive me if I have misremembered her precise adjectives, but I have tried. If, however, the noble Baroness thinks that her speech was other than political, I think she may deceive herself. Certainly one would need to know more of the thoughtful detail to appreciate what its economic consequences would be. It is almost 60 years since I was a soldier but, if, unlike Grand Committee on the Welfare Reform Bill, we are to listen to unremitted hostility, it will seem, at least for me, in military terms as simply being smoke. These matters are too important for that.

Finally I shall speculate in Committee on what the late Lord Russell—Conrad to most of us—would have made of all this. In your Lordships’ House both he and the late Lord Newton—Tony to many of us—were kind enough to remind me that I had given them respectively their first maiden speeches on the order paper in the Oxford Union. Indeed in the interests of balance, I shall speculate on what Tony Newton would have made of it all too. In the mean time, that is not a bad double barrel. I hope your Lordships’ House will forgive me hereafter, although I shall obviously observe the rubric, if I am briefly absent at the 90th birthday party of the noble Baroness, Lady Sharples.

18:56

[Lord Touhig]

My Lords, I am very pleased to follow the noble Lord, Lord Brooke of Sutton Mandeville. Some years ago he contested the parliamentary constituency of Bedwellty in the Conservative cause. It later became the constituency of Islwyn, which I had the privilege of representing for 15 years. I am sure that from his experiences in the Welsh valleys and the fact that his mother was Welsh, he will certainly know where I am coming from in this debate.

Although we all recognise the difficult economic climate in which decisions around benefits are being made, we must ensure that families are never left unable to afford the essential costs of daily living. Our priority must always be to ensure that those who face financial difficulty due to illness, disability, low pay or unemployment are still able to pay their rent, heat their homes, and feed their children; basic necessities which everyone in this Chamber takes for granted.

The Westminster Catholic Children's Society works with some of the poorest families in London. Its chief executive, Rosemary Keenan, recently said:

“It is hard for many of us to imagine what it is like for a mother to only have £1 left and know she still has to feed her children”.

Yet this is the case for an ever-growing number of parents. They are being forced to choose between turning on the heating or putting food on the table. Over the past year, we have witnessed a 44% rise in the number of families relying on emergency bed-and-breakfast accommodation after losing their homes, and a staggering 79% increase in the number of people visiting food banks.

By capping the up-rating of key benefits at less than half the rate of inflation, this mean-spirited Bill stands to further exacerbate the problems faced by some of the poorest people in our country. In short, it will widen the gap between family income and the price increases of basic commodities such food and fuel, further undermining people's ability to achieve decent living standards.

Kevin Flanagan, the director of St. Antony's Centre in Manchester, warns,

“We are already seeing increasing levels of family poverty and homelessness; any further real-term reduction of benefits will only worsen this situation”.

One particular concern widely held among the organisations working to support struggling families is the breakneck speed at which changes are being made. This Bill cannot and should not be considered in isolation; it comes as yet another blow to the poorest people, in a long line of already devastating cuts. Perhaps most worryingly, it comes at a stage when many key provisions of the Welfare Reform Act have yet to be implemented, including the capping of household benefits; cuts to council tax benefit; and new penalties for those deemed to be under-occupying social housing. The cumulative effect of these measures, which are being simultaneously thrust upon families this year, will create significant reductions to household incomes that are already under immense strain for many families. With such a widespread change under way, it is important that time is allowed for proper assessment and appropriate adjustments to be made.

However, the Government are already committed to further real-terms benefit cuts both for the immediate future and the next three years. It is irresponsible to legislate for a fixed annual increase of 1% when there can be no guarantee of how the rate of inflation will change between now and 2015. It is very possible that we will see families eventually facing an even bigger gap between incomes and prices in the years to come.

This rush to make short-term savings is not only unjust but economically unwise. It will inevitably increase homelessness, cause mental health problems for many and create higher personal debt. As a consequence, the cost of more family poverty will ultimately fall back on the taxpayer. This is not some Dickensian tale. In Britain in the 21st century, some 200,000 children will be pushed into poverty, growing up in unheated households or going to school hungry. They will face real risks to their education and health, which apart from the devastating human cost will almost certainly require expensive interventions by the state further down the line.

One particularly unpalatable aspect of the debate surrounding this legislation has been the rhetoric contributing to the isolation and stigmatisation of the vulnerable in our society. A number of noble Lords have spoken about this. Seeking to differentiate those in poverty as “deserving” or “undeserving” serves only to scapegoat those who are the victims of Britain’s stagnant economy. They are blamed. The implication is that if we did not have the people labelled “benefit scroungers”, everybody would be in work and the economy would be all right. This sort of rhetoric harms the vulnerable and clouds the fact that the majority of people who stand to be affected by the Bill are in fact hard-working men and women in low-paid jobs.

There are currently 6 million British workers in poverty. They rely on benefits to bridge the gap between a lower-than-living wage and rapidly rising living costs. These people will bear the brunt of the Bill when they are hit by real-terms cuts to their essential working tax credits and child tax credits. Furthermore, a below-inflation rise in benefits risks creating work disincentives, especially when working people face above-inflation rises in food and transport costs. For a worker receiving the minimum wage and facing a 4.2% rise in the cost of their commute, the Bill simply means that work will pay less than ever before. There are also more than 1 million disabled people who will be directly affected, adding to the pressures they already face from changes including the overhaul of the disability living allowance and the time-limiting of employment and support allowance.

The Government have consistently said that disability benefits are exempt from the 1% cap on benefit rises, yet the cap applies to employment and support allowance, which helps people who have barriers to work because of their disability. People with conditions like autism who are struggling to find work but who want to contribute will miss out under this legislation. Just 15% of adults with autism are in full-time work, yet research by the National Autistic Society shows that the vast majority want to work. Benefits for them are a necessity, not a luxury. The Government need to change their rhetoric to acknowledge the fundamental necessity of benefits to thousands of disabled people and their families up and down the country.

John Coleby, the director of St Joseph’s Pastoral Centre, which serves the Catholic Archdiocese of Westminster and provides specialist support to adults with learning difficulties, echoed the warning of many disability charities when he said that,

“the Bill should not be seen in isolation”,

from other cuts that were,

“creating a climate of uncertainty and fear”,

among disabled people for their future living standards and their independence, both of which are coming under increasing threat.

This debate has frequently and mistakenly been framed around the fairness of benefits rising faster than wages. It fails to acknowledge the fundamental issue at stake: namely, whether individuals and families are able to maintain their basic well-being. A comparison with wage increases is ultimately a false one to draw because in pounds and pence terms, families are struggling to make ends meet on a daily basis. The average weekly take-home pay in Britain is £395. That is five and a half times the jobseeker’s allowance of £71 and seven times the under-25s jobseeker’s allowance of £56.25. Faced with those differences, is anyone seriously suggesting that people labelled “benefit scroungers” would rather stay at home than be in work?

The average weekly shopping bill has risen by £5.66 in the past year alone, and is set to continue rising annually by at least 4%. Energy bills, too, have risen well above the rate of inflation, with the largest companies putting up prices by 7.6%. It is unthinkable that a mere 71 pence a week in jobseeker’s allowance, or a 99 pence a week rise in employment and support allowance, will come anywhere near bridging that gap. This is what a 1% rise means—71 pence and 99 pence—for people in these difficult circumstances.

Rather than focusing on misleading comparisons between benefits and wages, we should ensure that those who need support will still be able to afford the soaring costs of food, heating and accommodation. Overall, the impact of the Bill on vulnerable people and their families will be overwhelming. The decision to cap benefit increases so far below rising prices comes rapidly on the heels of a programme of widespread welfare cuts, the combined effect of which will further erode the ability of the lowest-income families to meet their daily living costs.

It is unjustifiable that parents and children will go hungry and that their homes will be put under threat through the misfortune of being ill, unemployed, disabled or simply working in low-paid jobs. The rush to make short-term savings will cause irreparable damage to those who are most in need of protection, and risks transforming our current economic challenges in this country into a very real poverty crisis.

19:06

[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, who is an expert in his field and brings an interesting Welsh dimension, as does my noble friend Lord German, to this important debate. It has been an excellent debate so far, reflecting the rising level of apprehension that exists in the country about what the future holds, particularly for the low-income, working-age households that the Bill particularly affects.

I am in some difficulty with the Bill because, at the risk of sounding pedantic, I do not even agree with the title. The Bill’s Short Title is “Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill”. The Long Title is “To make provision relating to the up-rating of certain social security benefits”. I have argued this etymological, perhaps pedantic, point before. There is a world of difference between statutory social security entitlements and welfare benefits. Welfare benefits were things that we inherited from our American cousins. They have nothing whatever to do with the statutory provision that we in the United Kingdom have enjoyed for the past 20 years.

I agree with noble Lords who made powerful speeches about the kind of language that we use to frame the debate. It is not just “drivers” and “skivers”, but goes more fundamentally to the point that since Section 150 of the Social Security Administration Act 1992, which the Bill seeks to amend, we have always had uprating. I was there when that Act was cast. It put the uprating debate beyond short-term party-political arguments. It stated that there were entitlements that gave people on various benefits a stake in creating the wealth of our country. That is a very important element in the social cohesion that we have enjoyed in this country to date. We are at risk of setting a very bad precedent with the Bill by disrupting this for a three-year period.

My noble friend Lady Stowell made a powerful but, I think, Treasury-influenced speech with important points that cannot be ignored.

We need to try to have a more measured, long-term public discussion about what is going on. The public are ignorant about the facts of social security, and I mean that in the polite sense of the word. They are just untutored about what is going on. They are frightened to death by some of the gross figures because we always talk about cash as snapshot cash figures—and the quantities are truly frightening for anybody who does not know anything about it—instead of talking about percentage shares of the wealth of the country and the long-term longitudinal dimension to some of this debate, which tracks what families do in the course of a life, and looks at people going in and out of work and the contributions they have made through the national insurance contribution system, or what is left of it.

We should and could have a much more informed debate about what we think we can afford. If Britain is a poorer country, as I believe it is—I do not know for how long it is going to be poorer, but it is certainly not going to go back to sustainable levels of growth in the near future—we have to ensure that the country knows what that means for the future. It is an ageing society. We are all living longer and that is a success story, but we have to pay for that, too. We are talking not just about health costs but about costs across the whole public policy area. That debate is not happening to the qualitative level and the political extent that it should. That is the first point I wanted to make.

My second point concerns something that one or two colleagues have mentioned. On top of everything else, this Bill worries me. I could be persuaded that for the next 12-month period there is a case for looking at the uprating of benefits, and I would certainly want to engage in that. However, I am deeply worried that this is on top of everything else. I would like to think that I have been studying this as long as anybody, but I have no idea what the next five years are going to hold, particularly for low-income working-age families. The point that was powerfully made by the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, was that the cumulative effect of all this has not been analysed by anybody. I would argue—and I think that the people sitting behind the Minister would probably say this—that the situation has been changing so fast that it has been impossible to pin down a cumulative analysis of what has been going on. I agree with her that this has to be done.

I want to make a connection between what the noble Baroness was saying and what my noble friend Lord German was saying, because he said something important with which I fundamentally agree: these cuts now have to stop. Between now and 2015, I will stand shoulder to shoulder with my noble friend Lord German, particularly in relation to low-income working-age households, in arguing that there should be no more cuts after this. Anything else would be to risk poverty and deprivation on a scale that we underestimate at our peril. If my noble friend Lord German and I get our way and stop any future change beyond this Bill, we could get on and do the arithmetic that the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, is suggesting. Perhaps it is calculus, not arithmetic. If we do not do that, we will all be arguing blind. I certainly do not know what the full consequences will be of everything that has happened to date, and I do not think that that is safe. I want to come back to that in my final point.

I want to make one other point about fairness. I think the noble Lord, Lord Adebowale, made it earlier. There is a qualitative impact to these cuts as well as a quantitative one, particularly for low-income working-age households. The noble Lord said this powerfully; he has more experience in the front line than I have. The impact of a 1% cut for somebody in the lower two deciles of income is much more profound than for others. It does not matter what the cash effect is; it is the impact.

Another matter that deeply concerns me but that has not been drawn out enough is the residual level of unsecured debt that these households are carrying—estimates just shy of £6,000 on average. It worries me that this is what we are putting into households across the United Kingdom with an average unsecured debt of £6,000. The impact question has a qualitative as well as a quantitative effect.

In closing, I want to try to promote an amendment to this Bill because, as we have been saying, an inflation risk has been introduced in a way that we have never seen before. This Bill imposes a 1% uprating in 2014-15, regardless of inflation. I am sure that we all trust the Office for Budget Responsibility; I am not an economist, but it seems to me that their forecasts have been pretty dodgy in terms of some of the metrics in the economy in the past. If they are not right about a 2.6% increase in CPI, and a 2.2% increase the year after, in 2014, anything in excess of that will increase these cuts.

Nobody in this room can tell me what that increase will be. I have done these metrics but will get them checked before Committee, because my arithmetic is not great, but if inflation were to be 2% more than the OBR’s current forecast over the next two years, the savings in 2015-16 increase from £1.9 billion to £4.7 billion. Who can put their hand on their heart and say that they know that we are not going to face this kind of inflationary increase? With food costs, fuel costs and rent costs, some families will certainly experience a 2% increase over the OBR estimate. I do not know how widespread that will be, but some of them will face that, so it is just not safe for us as legislators. I know there might be some issues of financial privilege in some of this, but I think it is possible to amend this Bill in a way that says that in Clauses 1 and 2, subsection (1) shall be disapplied if inflation goes higher than 3% or 4%. I do not know. That is a political decision, and we will have to think about that.

Let me make it clear that I am not trying to take away the power of the Government eventually—as long as they stay within the envelope of the OBR’s estimates—to seek the automaticity of the 1% increase that is suggested in this Bill. However, if it goes anywhere above that, they have to default back and argue the case year by year using the 1992 Section 150 provisions. I think that would be a modest amendment. It would give people like me some comfort to know that there was some protection for these low-income households in future.

I say to colleagues, having been thinking about this carefully over the weekend, that if we do not do that there are next to no other circumstances in which it would be safe to introduce this Bill the way it stands at the moment. It will impose an inflation risk that is a one-way bet for the Chancellor, because if it goes up he gets more savings, and if it does not he gets the savings in any case. Therefore, we have to think carefully about this in Committee. I will happily participate in any discussions around an amendment of that nature in order to ensure that we give some protection to some of these families in future.

19:18

[Baroness Grey-Thompson]

My Lords, I have listened with great interest to the debate so far, and I, like many others, have a number of concerns with this Bill. Capping the uprating of most benefits to no more than 1% for the next three years will mean an exponential increase in the net losses each year. The Government have already reduced the welfare budget for working-age people, so this Bill will be yet another blow for low earners and unemployed, sick, or disabled people.

My first concern is that the impact of benefit uprating changes will swamp any gains from raising tax thresholds for low-income households. Uprating changes are less noticeable than other cuts but over the years can have a large impact on someone’s income. Between 2011 and 2015, the uprating changes to child benefit alone will result in a real-terms cut of almost £6 a week for a family with two children. Child benefit, in addition, plays a role in determining the level of housing and council tax benefit paid to those on low incomes in work. The real-terms cut due to child benefit uprating alone during that period is almost £11 a week.

Households with someone working full time on the minimum wage, if there are children, not only will suffer a real-terms loss of £11 a week between 2011 and 2015 but will gain less than £2 a week from the rise in the tax threshold, because a rise in net income means a drop in housing and council tax benefits. Also, the effects of this Bill will not be greatly eased by the change in the personal tax allowance. Low-income households will lose most of the increase in income through a reduction in benefits such as housing benefit and tax credit. Paradoxically, it is the middle and high earners who will receive the full benefit of this measure.

Secondly, uprating changes are not occurring in isolation from other benefit cuts. In considering this Bill, it is important to have in mind the full impact of all the changes. Very few people who rely on benefits or tax credits as part of their income, whether in or out of work, will experience a cut in uprating alone. There have been numerous other cuts to tax credits, housing benefit, council tax support and disability benefits as well as capping. Citizens Advice has analysed the overall impact for a household through a series of changes in circumstances on what we currently know. The analysis demonstrates in a small way the combined impact of the changes on some groups, assuming that this Bill is passed. The example I want to present is not at the extreme end as there will be many people who will be even more severely hit by the cuts and will lose much more.

A couple, Mike and Anne, have two girls aged 12 and seven. They live in a three-bedroom property belonging to a local housing association and are both working full time with a combined income of about £46,000 a year. With this joint income they will be about £17 a week better off from tax and benefit changes in 2015 than they were in 2011. They will lose about £6 a week in real terms from the uprating of child benefit, but they will gain around £23 from the change in the tax threshold, giving an overall gain of £17 a week. However, this position rapidly deteriorates if the family circumstances change for the worse. If, say, Anne becomes ill and is diagnosed with MS, she may have to cut her hours because she quickly becomes exhausted.

The couple split up and Anne becomes a lone parent. She now has earnings of £10,000 a year, but is entitled to some help through benefits, including disability benefits and premiums in recognition of the extra costs she now faces as a result of her illness. Between 2011 and 2015, someone in her position will suffer a large loss in benefits, around £58 a week, while gaining only about £2 a week from the rise in the tax threshold as the gain in net earnings leads to a reduction in benefits. That is an overall loss of £56 a week. This is made up of an underoccupancy charge, loss of lower rate DLA, a £5 council tax payment and about £18 due to all the uprating changes.

That is the loss under the current system. The loss under universal credit will be even greater for someone in Anne’s position. If she moved over to universal credit at the point when her health deteriorated, she would not get transitional protection, and in 2015 would have a real-terms income of £95 a week less than in 2011. This is because under universal credit she will get no more financial support than someone who is not ill or disabled. If Anne’s condition further deteriorates and she has to leave work, she is awarded the middle-rate care component of DLA and is placed in the ESA support group. She now has a great many extra costs.

The overall real-terms loss between 2011 and 2015 for a household in this position is about £34 a week, and that assumes that Anne keeps DLA or the same value in PIP. This loss includes a real-terms loss of about £15 due to uprating changes, despite the protection for disabled people. Again, this is all under the current system. Under universal credit, if Anne does not get transitional protection, she will be £61 worse off in real terms in 2015 than someone in her position would have been in 2011. The extra loss is due to the loss of the severe disability premium offset by the rise in the support element of universal credit.

In summary, between 2011 and 2015, this couple with a joint income of £46,000 a year have a real-terms gain from tax and benefit changes of £17 a week; they would have a £23 gain if they did not have children. A disabled lone parent in Anne’s position who is working will have a real-terms drop of £56 a week overall, despite the gain from the raising of the tax threshold. The drop will be a real-terms drop of £95 a week between the current system in 2011 and universal credit in 2015. For someone in Anne’s position and in the support group, the real-terms loss is £34 a week, or £61 a week if on universal credit.

People are already struggling to manage, as has already been mentioned by my noble friend Lord Adebowale. The numbers going to food banks are rising steeply. These proposed changes impact disproportionately on those with a low income because more of their income goes on buying essentials, and it is these essentials such as fuel and food that are subject to high inflation. For many, this can mean making choices such as whether to keep the house warm or to eat properly. Disabled people who cannot work, those who are unemployed and cannot find work, and those on low earnings who are working are all being affected by other benefit cuts. Decisions on uprating should not be taken without recognising the cumulative impact. Many in your Lordships’ Chamber have asked about the cumulative impact of these changes, and I would urge the Government to look at this again.

I will not repeat the words of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leicester, but I wholeheartedly support his views. We have to understand where we are going as a society and how we want it to be viewed. In the Welfare Reform Bill, the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Freud, said consistently that the most vulnerable should get the most support, but I fear that as this Bill progresses, that may not be the case.

19:25

[The Lord Bishop of Ripon and Leeds]

My Lords, my colleague the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leicester argued that in this Bill we are again putting pressure on those who are already the poorest in our society. We want to urge the Government to look again at the effect of the Bill on child poverty, not just over the next three years, but on into the future. I will not repeat my colleague’s arguments, but in that context, I want to ask three questions of the Minister.

First, will the Government make some commitment about benefits for asylum seekers, especially child asylum seekers? I ask this as a member, alongside the noble Baroness, Lady Lister, of the parliamentary inquiry into asylum support for children and young people, which has recently reported. I am told that benefits for asylum seekers are not welfare benefits, and that although they are benefits designed for the welfare of those in destitution, they are beyond the scope of this Bill. In that Alice-in-Wonderland world, I would nevertheless plead with the Government to give some comfort to asylum-seeking children and those who work with them.

Until 2008, these benefits were pegged at 70% of income support, but now they are not related to anything at all and have fallen to between 50% and 60% of income support. No increases were made in 2012 and we are told that there are no plans for any increases in the near future. I am thinking of a teenage girl in Leeds who has to look after her disabled mother as they seek asylum after fleeing from terror. She goes without meals herself in order to ensure that her mother is kept out of destitution. Will the Minister press her colleagues to ensure that the 10,000 asylum-seeking children who are at the most deprived end of our society are given a fair chance in life?

It is always a privilege to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Grey-Thompson, in these debates. Will the Government look again at the effect of the provisions of this Bill on disabled children? While some disability benefits are to be protected, the lower child disability addition of universal credit is included in the Bill among the benefits to be capped at 1% per annum. I follow the noble Lord, Lord Low, in asking that this should be looked at again. This benefit will be halved under universal credit; families with disabled children will have that element of their benefit reduced from £57 a week to £28, and now that savage reduction will be compounded by an increase of only 1% rather than by inflation. Will the Government consider the cumulative effect of the various measures on disabled children?

Alongside that, again with the noble Baroness, Lady Grey-Thompson, I am concerned about the effect on families of the continuing erosion of child benefit. This benefit has long been the mark of our support for children in our society, but already we have seen a significant number of families being deprived of this universal benefit altogether. The social value of paying this benefit to the mother has, I believe, not been properly or adequately counted. It is a benefit that is widely used to support the next generation, but it is now being refused to many. The 1% increase in 2014-15 follows three years of freezing the uprate so that, over the five years from 2010 to 2015, the level of child benefit for a family with three children will have reduced by £380 a year—in addition to the other reductions for children in deprived circumstances. Child benefit is key to the welfare of our society and it needs to be protected.

Finally, other noble Lords, particularly the noble Lord, Lord German, have asked the Minister whether she will encourage her colleagues, and indeed everybody else, not to use derogatory or dismissive language when they refer to those who receive welfare benefits. I will go a bit further than that and ask whether she will make it clear that the vast majority of those on benefits are not shirkers, fraudsters or spendthrifts. The majority of those who receive benefits are in work and the majority of those out of work would love to work if they could find jobs. The stigmatisation of those who receive benefits is both serious and dangerous. In 2011, there was an increase of 30% in attacks on disabled people, fuelled by stories of how people were falsely claiming disability allowances. Politicians and journalists are accused of spreading a mythology that causes stigma. Will the Minister today begin the process of slaying that myth by declaring that responsibility for poverty does not lie with the poor, so that we can, together, seek to support one another in helping those in most poverty, especially those in child poverty, within our society?

19:31

[Lord Sheikh]

My Lords, I welcome the Bill as it will restore fairness and simplicity to the process of social security payments. It will also deal with the question of affordability. It is important for a Government of any persuasion to show that they empathise with taxpayers who are essentially paying for welfare handouts. The concept of fairness is one of the reasons for proposing this Bill. It is worth remembering that the coalition Government inherited the biggest budget deficit of any country in the developed world. It is estimated that capping social security benefits in this manner will save the Treasury £3.7 billion in 2015-16 and that, thereafter, there will be permanent savings each and every year in our welfare spending.

Welfare spending increased by 60% under the previous Government but this did not produce the intended result of helping individuals to return to work. If we can get more people in work, some of them will receive salary progressions and improve their standards of living. In the years 1997 to 2010, when average earnings increased by 30%, tax credit spending increased by 340%. One of the aims of this Bill is to tackle the lack of aspiration and ambition among a number of those who have been trapped in poverty. I believe that the 1% uprating stipulated in Clauses 1 and 2 will improve incentives to work.

It is true that the welfare debate has been described in overly simplistic terms in certain quarters. However, it is a fact that a culture of dependency exists in some areas. Previous Governments have tried to tackle this issue with the best of intentions but the complexity and scope of the problem has often meant that past strategies have not been successful in addressing the matter. Children and young people who live in households where adults do not engage in any form of employment are not only the most deprived in our society but are most likely to follow this path once they leave full-time compulsory education. This generational cycle of worklessness is a key factor in the rising levels of welfare dependency and poverty in our communities.

I am sure that all noble Lords will agree that work gives people pride and confidence. Unemployment sometimes creates depression and has an adverse affect on people. Work is good for people’s mental health, their physical health and their general well-being. These benefits have been demonstrated repeatedly. Dependency is not liberating; it constrains people and prevents them achieving their ambitions.

[Baroness Hollis of Heigham]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving way for a moment. Would he not agree that, on the contrary, what welfare benefits such as tax credits have done, and what universal credit proposes to do, is to make work pay and thus get people back into the labour market, exactly as he wishes?

[Lord Sheikh]

I still feel there is a culture of dependency. Obviously, we would like to get more people into work and incentives must be given to people to go to work. People have become trapped in our welfare system and they need to be freed. This Bill will make a great contribution to their liberation.

The Government deserve recognition for trying to ensure that we have a fair welfare system to support those in genuine need. Social security should be for people who find themselves out of work and are trying to get back into employment. This House recently debated the success of the Asian community who were expelled from Uganda and came to settle in this country in 1972. My family was among those people who were expelled by General Amin and who came here. A number of these Asians came here penniless and were initially housed in Army camps. At the outset they received state benefits but they came off those benefits, and started to work and established small businesses. They have been successful and now offer employment to others, pay taxes and create wealth for the country. It is unfortunate that some people have chosen not to make a contribution to society and have opted to receive benefits as a way of life. The welfare system was created to ensure that people were not left destitute if they lost their jobs. It was viewed as a matter of support for those who were down on their luck. It is unfortunate that the original purpose of this safety net has been distorted.

I wholeheartedly support the Government’s decision to retain the uprating of long-term disability benefits at the rate of inflation. I also support the triple-lock guarantee for basic state pensions, which means that pensioners will receive an increase of at least 2.5%. A compassionate society is one that shows respect and understanding to the most vulnerable. I am proud that the Government have taken these steps as they are both a moral and civil duty. Further to erroneous reports about these measures, I would be grateful if the Minister could inform your Lordships’ House of the steps Her Majesty’s Government are taking to ensure that people are well informed and reassured about policy regarding disability and pension provision.

It is neither prudent nor fair to distribute welfare payments or benefits without question or regard for our economic situation. The uprating measures in this Bill will show considerable savings by 2015-16 and for years after that. This is essentially about taxpayers’ money. We have a financial deficit that we need to rectify and we need to put the country on a sound financial footing. We can achieve this by reducing our spending, applying appropriate taxes and undertaking more business at home and overseas. I have spoken on the latter point in your Lordships’ House previously. We cannot afford to continue paying welfare benefits as in the past.

The Government have reduced the deficit by a quarter since they came to power in 2010. Obviously, this is to be commended. More than 1 million jobs were created in the private sector in the same period. The FTSE 100 index has risen above 6,300 points for the first time since May 2008. If we can achieve more growth we will create more jobs, and if we can encourage people to work rather than be dependent on the state, more people will be gainfully employed. I support the Government on getting the economy right and we must be firm and keep on the right track. It will indeed cause pain to some people but, of course, if a person is ill it is necessary to take strong medicine. We should not borrow our way out of the current financial crisis. Borrowing is the easy way but it is the wrong way.

There are wider social implications at the heart of this debate. We cannot ignore the resentment and anger felt by hard-working families who see others making a conscious effort not to work being rewarded handsomely by the state. Failure to address this issue may cause tensions within communities. I am sure that some of us have heard the expression, “I cannot afford to go to work”. This is an absurd situation and we are perhaps the only country where people are better off not working.

The measures in the Bill are necessary to remedy the culture of dependency that is blighting some members of our population. The Bill is a sign of the Government’s commitment to ensuring that we live in a fair society. The fact remains that since the economic downturn salaries have risen on average by 10%, whereas payments for some individuals in receipt of benefits have risen by 20%. We need to look at all areas of expenditure for our well-being, which will of course include the welfare benefits. The present state of affairs is simply not sustainable. I am supporting this Bill as it is a step forward in dealing with issues relating to affordability and fairness.

19:42

[Baroness Donaghy]

My Lords, I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Sheikh, for being a hard-working and successful entrepreneur. I know several people who have two or three part-time jobs who work extremely hard and who remain low paid. I never cease to be surprised that the low paid are always blamed for being low paid and being eligible for tax credits, but low-paying employers are never blamed for their part.

This Bill is political and deserves a political response. The challenge has been issued by the noble Lords, Lord German, Lord Bates and Lord Brooke of Sutton Mandeville: “What would I do instead of this Bill?”. In the words of Yosser Hughes, “Gissa job” and I will tell you. This Bill is completely unnecessary, it is based on a misrepresentation and it is playing politics with people’s lives. All this will become apparent when the impact is actually felt by real people, when the jobless numbers rise and child poverty increases.

First, there was absolutely no need for the Bill, as has already been said by several speakers. The Government already have the power to uprate by 1% this year, next year and the year after at the appropriate time without new primary legislation. So why do it? The Work and Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, said that it would,

“provide certainty for taxpayers, the markets and claimants”.—[Official Report, Commons, 8/1/13; col. 189.]

I ask the Minister: what certainty can there possibly be when the level of inflation in the next three years—a key ingredient, she must accept—is unknown? What certainty can there be when the markets are up and down like a yo-yo? I suppose it could be said that higher rate taxpayers have been provided with certainty, and claimants are certain that they will be a lot poorer. The real reason for this unnecessary Bill is to provide a symbolic dividing line between the coalition Government and the Labour Opposition—short-term political gain on the back of those at the bottom of the labour market—and this sleight of hand will be found out.

Secondly, the Bill is based on the false premise that this is about fairness between taxpayers and those out of work. The Chancellor himself stated that,

“over the last five years, those on out-of-work benefits have seen their incomes rise twice as fast as those in work”.—[Official Report, Commons, 5/12/12; col. 879.]

Everything has been pitched to present this Bill as an act of fairness to working people whose earnings have risen by about 10% since 2007 while out-of-work benefits have gone up by about 20%, but we all know how misleading this comparison is. I negotiated wage increases for the poorest paid in universities for 16 years, 90% of them women, mainly part-time. Using percentages to present a case is designed to mislead. We used to say that 10% of nothing is still nothing.

The whole presentation by the Government is about employed versus unemployed, when the reality is nothing of the kind. It is actually about divide and rule. Thirty per cent of households will be affected. Those most likely to be affected are families with children, particularly lone parents, 90% of whom are women. The Government claim that many of those affected by the Bill could cope with the below-inflation benefits by moving into work, but 60% of those households affected are in work. The Government claim that the disabled will be protected, but disabled people in the ESA support group will see their basic allowance of £71 uprated by 1%. This represents almost 70% of their out-of-work support and 991,000 disabled people receiving ESA in 2012 will experience a 1% uprating, representing a loss of £87.65 a year, as has already been said.

The real weasel words come when we are told about child poverty. The Parliament Under-Secretary, Esther McVey, said that there would be,

“an extra 200,000 children being deemed by this measure to be in relative income poverty compared to uprating benefits by CPI … It is misleading to look at the impacts of uprating in isolation”.—[Official Report, Commons, 15/1/13; col. 715-16W.]

Note the words “deemed” and “relative income poverty” in an attempt to minimise the impact. Mr Duncan Smith went on to say:

“If we take the figures on that relative income point across the period covered by the spending review, we can see that some 350,000 children net will be lifted out of poverty, even if we take into account the effect of this Bill”.—[Official Report, Commons, 21/1/13; col. 131.]

So either we have 200,000 extra children in poverty or we have 350,000 fewer in poverty. In a recession we are all poorer so the poorest are comparatively better off—what unbelievable nonsense.

Thirdly, the Government are playing politics with people’s lives. They claim it is about rebalancing the economy and making work pay. Let us say for the sake of argument that the 60% on diminishing tax credits who are in work get better jobs, leaving room for the 40% who are not in work to do the lowest paid jobs. Where are these jobs coming from? Last year 300,000 jobs were lost from the public sector. The OBR predicts the loss of a further 900,000 jobs by 2017-18, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts 1.2 million lost jobs in the public sector over the same period.

The Government think they are all going to come from the private sector, and so far they have, but there is no growth in the economy. People are spending what they have on energy, food and rent, and large retail chains are going out of business. Maybe they will all become self-employed. Between June 2008 and April-June 2012 the number of self-employed rose to 4.2 million, a rise of 367,000. During the same period, the number of employees declined by 434,000. Maybe this is how we are going to work our way out of poverty.

However, if you look at the figures, 80% of that increase in the number of self-employed were aged over 50 and more than likely to be male, according to the Office for National Statistics. So we are turning into a nation of 50 year-old entrepreneurs. When you delve even further, they turn out to be construction workers, carpenters, taxi drivers, et cetera. This suggests people who have little choice about their employment status, whose job prospects have diminished because of age barriers and who are probably bumping along on the bottom of the labour market, getting what they can but not continuous employment. It could also explain why output is flat while employment is growing. It is not the brave new world but more like a twilight zone.

The Government are not looking after the economy; they are looking after their own. The gap between rich and poor, already unacceptable, will widen. The Times Magazine last week said that a child born in Lambeth is likely to die eight years before their counterpart in Kensington and Chelsea. I presume that the latter need the extra eight years in order to spend their tax breaks. It is bad enough that we live in a society that tolerates these differences in mortality rates. This Bill is intended to be a propaganda coup for the Government. It will soon be seen for what it is: a gratuitous attack on the poorest and weakest in an unequal society.

19:50

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I am delighted to follow a number of long-standing colleagues with whom I have campaigned on these issues over many years. I, too, voice my concern about this Bill, which will result in real-terms cuts in support for thousands of low-income people, including, despite government claims to the contrary, up to 1 million disabled people, particularly those endeavouring to work.

If the Bill goes through unchecked, the increase in welfare benefits will be 1% while CPI inflation stands at 2.7% and RPI inflation at 3%. As the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, mentioned, inflation may well increase substantially. This will lead to real-terms cuts during the next three years in payments to support those who are working and contributing to the economy. They are the very “hard-working families” so beloved of the spin doctors of those who want to underpin the concept of the deserving poor—deserving, apparently, of just 1% uprating. I cannot see how this will contribute to promoting a work ethic or allow working people to participate in a savings culture.

I shall refer to figures relating mainly to Wales, although I realise that the arguments will apply to many other areas, too. The effect of the measures in Wales will be disproportionally greater, since incomes per head in Wales are substantially lower than average incomes in England. Figures released before Christmas show that GVA per head in Wales stands at 75.2% of the UK average, so cuts to in-work benefits for the low-paid will hit Wales proportionately harder.

According to the most recent DWP data, as at 1 December last year, more than 125,000 families in Wales were receiving working tax credits. This comprises some 93,000 families receiving both working tax credits and child tax credits, and 32,000 families receiving just working tax credits. The 2011 census records that in my home area, the Gwynedd local authority area, 9,200 families were receiving one or more elements of tax credits out of the total 52,000 households. This means that 17.5% of all households were in receipt of tax credits. These people generally spend their money within their own local areas. The Welsh economy is made up overwhelmingly of small businesses. These working tax credit reductions will mean that demand is further sucked out of local economies as people have, in real terms, less money to spend.

The uprating will also hit those seeking work. The Government may intend this real cut as furthering workforce discipline, surmising that, as benefits will be even lower, so people will be prepared to take any job. In this, they are fundamentally mistaken. Many unemployed people, particularly in Wales, are seeking work in vain because the economic policies of the Government are failing. There are some parts of the west Wales and the valleys area whose GVA per head is only 65% of the UK average, with 21 unemployed people chasing every vacant job. Putting the morality of this on one side for a moment, starving people back into work has no prospects of success if the jobs are just not there.

If we are to combat this, boosting skills alone will not cut it; we must also tackle the demand side of the economy. We have to make sure that there is real work out there for people to do. The Government's Work Programme, allegedly designed to take people off benefits and into work, was utterly ineffective throughout the UK, but Wales recorded the worst figures, with the Department for Work and Pensions saying that only 1,380 of the 42,380 people on the programme entered long-term employment—a success rate of only 3%. In Wales, 77,377 people are looking for work and claiming jobseeker’s allowance, while just 20,310 vacancies are posted in jobcentres. This means that, across Wales, there are on average four people chasing every empty job

We are facing a vast increase in the number of the working poor—people who are now resorting to the food banks to feed their families. If this Government were serious about ensuring that work pays, they should legislate to ensure that work really does pay more in wages so that people do not have to resort to benefits to make ends meet. Legislating to uprate the minimum wage to the recommended living wage would be a good start, and I commend the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Bates, earlier in this debate.

It has been estimated that the private sector in the UK is sitting on a cash stockpile of as much as £700 billion, because it does not have the confidence to invest. Getting this prospective investment to create economically productive jobs is the challenge which the Government have so far failed to address successfully.

In Wales, although most economic powers are not devolved, we can take some steps to improve the situation. My own party, Plaid Cymru, recently successfully negotiated with the Welsh Government to secure £40 million of funding towards 10,000 new apprenticeship training places in Wales as part of a budget deal. We are also pressing for a new procurement policy that could create several thousand jobs through sourcing public sector contracts domestically. Such an approach might be beneficial also for the deprived parts of northern England which, like Wales, are suffering from ineffective economic policies.

Wales needs job-creating levers to improve our economy, not handouts and workfare. That is why it is essential that the powers recommended by part 1 of the Silk commission are implemented as soon as possible. Real work and training is what is needed, not temporary workfare schemes to take people off unemployment figures for six months. At the very least, the Government must make sure that increases in benefit rates reflect rises in the cost of living. Otherwise, this proposed cut will deepen inequality, increase poverty and further dampen the economic prospects of poorer areas.

19:57

[Lord Whitty]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Sheikh, said it and, to a large extent, the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, demonstrated it as regards Wales; namely, that this Bill has wider social implications, but they are not welcome implications. They are to put a big burden of the sorting-out of our economic situation on low- paid working people. I follow the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, in saying that it is quite a dangerous move, after 20 years of virtual cross-party consensus, that we should virtually automatically uprate our benefits system, to break that system in this way in a Bill which is legislatively unnecessary. The noble Lord also said that we needed some clearer long-term thinking. My main points will be about that because, as many others have said, this Bill is surrounded by hugely misleading propaganda.

It is supposed to be part of a strategy on the part of the Government to reduce benefit costs, simplify the benefits system and increase employment, but any such strategy is put in jeopardy by a government believing their own propaganda and that of their press allies. That propaganda seems to be all about the distinction between the deserving and the undeserving poor—those who work and those who do not—but the burden of the Bill falls on those who do work, who are already squeezed by a cut in real wages, particularly at the lower ends of income, and who will therefore be twice hit by a cut in the real value of their benefits.

The propaganda also suggests that benefit recipients’ real living standards have risen dramatically faster than those who are in work. As the figures that have been provided to us by the CPAG show, the real value of unemployment pay and other social benefits has steadily fallen over several decades. The reason why there has been a slight reversal in the past couple of years is the dramatic fall in real wages at the bottom end. That is not a reason to aggravate that unfairness and retrogression by the means proposed under the Bill.

If the Government were really telling the public that we need to differentiate between those who work and those who do not, they would have provided for a benefit system that differentiated between levels paid to those in work and those out of work. The Bill does not do that. The Government have, rightly, stuck with focusing on need rather than on whether you are in or out of work. Of course, the downside of that is that they have hit both equally. For those who are in work, the Government claim that they have offset that by raising the tax threshold at the same time, but the tax threshold hike has been offset by the cut in housing benefit, the abolition for many and the cut for others in council tax benefit and other benefits. The net effect on the working poor of the Government’s measures has not been positive compared to those who are on benefit and who are out of work. The supposed strategy is as much at odds with the propaganda as the propaganda is at odds with reality.

I hope that the Government will find my second point slightly more constructive, but it is equally critical, not only of this Government but of previous Governments. Elements of the Daily Mail propaganda, as I would call it—to save Ministers’ blushes—are correct. That relates to the soaring cost of housing benefit and, within that context, to occasional, admittedly much exaggerated, stories of ludicrously high levels of housing benefit for particular families in particular situations, especially in London. Those families are obviously chosen to highlight a point. For obvious reasons, they tend to be families who fit the Daily Mail image of benefit recipients by being large in the number of children, probably out of work and almost certainly foreign.

There are thousands of other less dramatic cases in which, inevitably, housing benefit has risen above the rate of inflation. The Government, and all of us, have to ask ourselves why. It is because of the failure of the housing market, compounded, in some cases by the failure of local authority placement policies. It is not, by and large, due to the failure of the benefit system.

I have been banging on about the failures of the housing market for at least 10 years, for the past two years as chair of Housing Voice—as I should have declared—but so have many other people for far longer. The reality is that all parts of the housing market—out-of-reach mortgages, soaring private rents, unaffordable leasehold charges, the inadequate quantity of new social housing, and increasingly expensive social housing at that—reflect a failure to build, a failure to refurbish and a failure to provide housing choice fit for our society at various levels.

Hence, in all forms of tenure, housing costs are rising. Inevitably, that leads to a rise in housing benefit payments. I repeat that that is a failure of housing policy; it is not a failure of social security policy. I predict that the pressure on housing benefit, or what is intended will become the housing component of universal credit, will seriously sabotage and possibly completely undermine what I think is universally regarded as the commendable aim of introducing universal credit, unless housing benefit and the pressures on it are dealt with first in the wider context of housing policy.

Looking back, the roots of this problem go to a serious mistake, made, probably unconsciously, decades ago. Until the 1960s, the vast bulk of government intervention in the housing market was on the capital side: help to local authorities to build social housing; and help to homeowners and landlords to improve their stock. A much lesser proportion was on the revenue side in subsidies to people, and much of that was through tax relief on mortgage payments. We now have a completely switched system, so that more than 90% of state support in the housing market is revenue based and very little is capital based. In the next five years, £90 billion will be spent on housing benefit; £5 billion, at best, on new and improved housing. Within government, the two aspects are dealt with by entirely separate policies and entirely different departments. CLG designs housing policy; DWP decides housing benefit. If the two sides were brought together in one pot with one policy in one department, we could perhaps, over a period of years, develop a sensible housing strategy: building more houses, improving those we have, and providing selective support to tenants and householders who are faced with unaffordable costs.

Unless we do that, unless we take housing benefit out of the plans for universal credit strategy and put it back into housing policy, we will not solve the housing crisis, the pressure on housing benefit and therefore the pressure on the social security budget in total. Unlike other benefits, housing benefit—and, I guess, council tax benefit—depends not on your income or your family circumstances but on the home and the area in which it is situated and on the state of all the housing markets in that area. As long as the housing crisis persists, the total benefit bill will inexorably rise faster than inflation. Then the Treasury will again insist on real-terms cuts to the income of many of the poorest in our society, such as the proposals before us tonight.

I appreciate that in calling for a single approach to housing policy, I am parting company with some of my usual colleagues who are housing and policy campaigners, but I say to the Government and the Opposition that unless they start looking at this in a more strategic way and put both sides of the housing issue together, they will solve neither the housing crisis nor the pressures on the social security budget. Unless we do that, we will be back here in a few years’ time with a Government of one complexion or another unfortunately forced to put the cost of our failure on those who are least able to afford it.

20:06

[Baroness Gardner of Parkes]

My Lords, it has been a very wide-ranging debate, and many different aspects have been developed by different speakers. I start by taking issue with the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, for saying that we on this side have tried to make this a battle between the deserving and the undeserving. I do not think that there should be moral judgments like that, and I do not believe that our party is making them. I will start with the noble Lord’s speech because it was the previous one and therefore it is fresh in my mind. It is important to realise that housing benefit has been a great problem. He says that we need to address it. Of course we do. One way to address it is to restrict it, and that is what has had to be done.

I have seen people living in properties who have been getting housing benefit of about £80,000 a year. That is just the benefit. It is not their living costs or anything else. People in employment might be earning £20,000 a year in the same area. It is pretty hard to watch that happen. When I was chairman of social services on Westminster Council, many years ago, we discovered that housing in London was terribly expensive even then, and that there was plenty of space and lots of unoccupied properties in, I think, Liverpool. It was somewhere quite remote.

We gave all those people who had no housing rights at all the right to go there. We provided transport and everything else, and Liverpool was willing to provide the accommodation. One-third of those people arrived there. The other two-thirds vanished into the blue. They went off our housing list, but they never appeared anywhere else. Evidently they would rather do anything than leave London. When we now see these people living in a little shed in a back garden in Acton or somewhere, it is terrible that people so desperately want to stay in London, where housing is, I would say, at the top of the range in price, and the least available. We had terrible trouble then because all the bed and breakfast hotel accommodation, which is so widely used now, was taken up by tourists or new arrivals to the country. Even to get a bed and breakfast space we at Westminster Council had gradually to move out wider and wider. It got to the point where no one in London had any bed and breakfast space available.

I feel for councils now that have nothing to offer people. This problem has not arisen in five minutes. It goes back a long, long way. When I was on the Greater London Council, I remember that we had a Conservative housing chairman and a Labour Government at that time. The chairman said, “This is the time when we could solve the housing problem, because I know what we need in London and the Labour Government have good ideas on what they could do”. However, it never happened because each of those authorities changed. The Government and the council changed, so the whole scenario changed.

Housing is a major problem. What is very bad is the continuing increase in utility bills and fuel rises. People in council blocks have recently told me that they can manage to pay the rent—they were renting from people who had bought their leasehold because that was all that was available—but they could not afford to warm the flat because the fuel bill is so high. That is worrying, because we were told that every effort would be made to see that fuel bills came down to a level where a card payment at a prepayment meter, which most of those people have to use because it is the only practical way for them to budget, would not be more expensive than having a quarterly bill. Yet only last week someone told me that it is still 10% more. Of course, it is going up all the time. That would be something—there are many things—that could be done to help people. The housing issue is not such a battle now. It has been addressed by putting a ceiling on housing benefit.

I heard the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, talk about Wales and the shortage of work there. Surely a lot of those people who cannot get anywhere else to live in the country could go to Wales. If you are living on a benefit, it does not matter where you are living if it is fully paid for by someone else. I do not understand that position.

[Lord Wigley]

I am listening carefully to what the noble Baroness says. Surely she would not uproot families—families with children in schools and with support mechanisms around them in south-east England—and move them to Merthyr Tydfil or Middlesbrough, where they have no links at all.

[Baroness Gardner of Parkes]

I do not know that I agree. I arrived in this country and knew nothing about it. I had no job or anything else. Particularly if you have come from another country, it really does not much matter where you settle provided that you have the school that you want. Wales has always had a marvellous reputation for literacy, and I am quite sure that the schools would be good there. You want to be able to live in a safe, clean environment. Again, Wales is a beautiful country. I am a New South Welshman myself.

I do not want to be frivolous in this very serious debate. The one thing that we all have in common in this Chamber tonight is that none of us wants to see restrictions on anything. However, we just have to be realistic and look at the common sense of it. If we do not have the money to afford things, we cannot attempt to do it. It is all very well to think that you can do everything for everyone. I read in the statistics, which I think someone else quoted, that there was a 60% welfare increase under the previous Government between 2003 and 2010. Every household had to pay more than £3,000 a year to meet that extra increase of 60%, and the fact that we went too far and spent too much then is of course catching up with us now. It would be lovely if these things did not happen. However, this has happened and we have to try to put a stop on it, at least to be sure that we do not go on for ever.

The noble Lord, Lord McKenzie, spoke early on about how we denigrate people as being workshy. Again, when I was in dental practice we had only a very poor catchment area near us because the only way people could get to work was by bus. There was absolute overemployment in the country, but we would go to the jobcentre and get nice young people to come and start work. We made the mistake originally of giving them keys to the surgery. That was a big mistake because most of them did not last a week. Then you would phone and say, “Where is Joanie? We were expecting her at work”, and someone would say, “Oh no, she never gets out of bed before midday. We can’t do anything with her”. So this is not a new problem. There have always been people who did not want to work, but there are others who do. That is the tragedy today; plenty of people desperately want to work but cannot find the work, as the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, suggested about Wales. It really is a major problem.

However, the more difficult the world and the more difficult these situations, the more we have to address them. We cannot go on believing that it will all work out all right in the end, just keep your fingers crossed. I was very impressed with the speech by the noble Lord, Lord German. I have never heard him speak before, but he clearly understands all the technical terminology, which I cannot claim to understand at all. The noble Lord said that at the moment all these taxes hit the richest hardest. That is true, because they are paying the biggest bit. Someone else, who I think was on the other side—no, it was that marvellous noble Lord in the back row here. I cannot pronounce his name; it is a bit too difficult for me—

[Lord Adebowale]

It is Adebowale, an old Yorkshire name meaning Adebowale.

[Baroness Gardner of Parkes]

Thank you very much. The noble Lord said that some are hit harder than others and that to be hit hard if you are rich is not nearly as difficult as if you are poor. Every one of us would agree with that statement, so these things are not simple.

There was talk about food banks. The other day we had a question about food banks, which are a good idea. It is a disappointment that you might have to use a food bank but at least there is something there. When people talk about the difficulty of having to choose whether to warm the house or feed their children, surely food banks are better than leaving your child hungry. I can see someone disagreeing with me, but whatever I say, someone will disagree with me because there are two definite views on this. However, we have to be realistic.

I noticed that the right Reverend Prelate—was it the same Lord Bishop who is in his place? No, I think it was the previous one—the Bishop of Leicester said that it was just a short-term saving and that people were having to pay some element of council tax for the first time. Again, I think that council tax is perhaps one of the better forms of tax and that councils take into account where people really need help. I notice that even in business rates there is a provision whereby you can apply to have your business rates reduced, and that might enable you to stay in business and go on employing people who are working for you. Things are not that easy. The internet is destroying lots of shopping centres. There are issues there.

The noble Lord, Lord Touhig, made points that I agreed with strongly. He talked about the deserving and the undeserving. That seems to be the tag that they are giving us today. I remember Keith Joseph, in the days when he was very involved, talking about the cycle of deprivation. I have always thought that that still exists. If you do not know how to live frugally and do things for yourself, you cannot teach your children the same things because you do not know them to pass them on. This is very important. When times are hard for some people, they tend to buy food that is expensive and not necessarily nutritious. We get all the talk about obesity even in the very poor, and that is because the food that they can buy that is cheap is the worst for health. All these things are difficult.

The noble Lord referred to the climate of uncertainty and fear that we are trying to create—I do not know whether he said that we were trying to create it or whether we had done so—but that is certainly not the intention. There are things that we could do. I am strongly supportive of old people having bus travel passes or of transportability for people. Again, we did a great survey when I was chairman of social services and we discovered that the best thing possible was for people to continue to be mobile and to get around. If they could not afford the fares, they could not do that, and that added to the national health bill. If we are looking for a good economic thing, one of the good things is to keep people mobile and moving around as much as possible. The other things that are much more difficult are how to occupy them.

We have created a culture of dependency. As I said, those benefits went up 60%. This is the realistic situation that we have to bring back into line. The Bill has been demonised today in a way that is not fair. This side cares very much about people. It is simply that the answers are not easy. We would all like to do everything to help everyone, but you just cannot have it all ways. For that reason, I support the Bill.

20:19

[Baroness Lister of Burtersett]

My Lords, this Bill should really be titled the “Welfare Benefits Downrating Bill” because it will downrate the real value of the benefits and tax credits upon which the poorest members of our society rely. The Bill’s length, together with its effects and some of the divisive arguments that have been used to justify it elsewhere, make it—unfortunately my noble friend Lady Hollis got in first with my best line—nasty, brutish and short.

Among those who face greater hardship as a consequence are the 200,000 children who will fall into poverty as families with children and poor mothers are particularly hard hit. In the words of the Children’s Commissioner for England, it is unacceptable that children should have to pay the price for the economic malaise of our country. Could the Minister please explain how this projected increase in child poverty is compatible with the Government’s obligations under the Child Poverty Act 2010? Moreover, as a number of noble Lords have said, about one-third of households containing a disabled person stand to be affected, despite the claims to be protecting disabled people.

I wish to examine the two main arguments used by the Government to justify this nasty Bill. The Secretary of State told the other place that the arguments are,

“first and foremost about affordability”,—[Official Report, 21/1/13; col. 128.]

and that deficit reduction is at the heart of the measure. Oddly, he countered the charge that social security spending had risen faster than anticipated under his watch by rightly pointing out that,

“a huge part of that is spending on pensions”.—[Official Report, 8/1/13; col. 188.]

Yet pensions are not included in his Bill, which is supposedly “all about affordability”, as my noble friend Lady Hollis has underlined.

Ministers enjoy using the affordability argument to ask the Opposition what they would cut instead, as have the noble Lords, Lord German and Lord Bates today. I cannot talk for the Front Bench but similar sums could have been saved in a much less regressive way by forgoing tax cuts that benefit the better off the most. I am talking about not just the regressive cut in the additional rate of tax but also the increase in personal tax allowances, which are of no help to the one-fifth of workers too poor to pay tax, two-thirds of whom are women; of only limited help to those in receipt of certain means-tested support, which tapers away with higher post-tax income, and this will be even more the case under the universal credit; and of most advantage to higher-rate taxpayers. As a Gingerbread report put it:

“It would be hard to design a policy that was less well targeted on low income families”,

than raising personal tax allowances—the more so, given that the better-targeted child benefit has been frozen, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds has pointed out.

In any case, if the policy is really about deficit reduction, cutting incomes at the bottom is counterproductive because, as the IMF has pointed out, this reduces demand. People on low incomes are more likely to spend their money, and in the local economy. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the multiplier effect of changing benefit levels, for good or ill, is twice that of personal tax allowances. So what is the sense of taking money out of poor people’s pockets in order to put some back into better-off people’s pockets in a way that is less likely to keep the economic wheels turning? Again, a number of noble Lords have made that point.

The second argument concerns fairness. There are two aspects to this. The first is that over the past five years out-of-work benefits have gone up by about double average earnings. In the debate in the other place, a Conservative Back-Bencher said that it,

“cannot be right ... for benefits to rise, year after year, faster than the wages of the low-paid”,—[Official Report, Commons, 21/1/13; col. 101.]

but the past five years have been an aberration. With the exception of a much needed boost to the real value of support for children achieved under the previous Government, benefits have year after year gone up by less than wages because they have been linked only to prices. The consequence is that, according to Professor Jonathan Bradshaw, the value of the basic safety net benefit received by a single person is now only 11% of average earnings compared with 18% in 1948 and 20% in the late 1960s. Moreover, the replacement rate of unemployment benefits is low comparatively, meeting only 53% of former net earnings for a couple with two children on average earnings compared with an OECD average of 76%.

A Joseph Rowntree Foundation study of existing uprating policies concluded that they,

“imply substantial long-term reductions in personal disposable income relative to earnings”.

Indeed, the Minister, Steve Webb, told the other place that,

“we think that average earnings in a couple of years’ time will be more than CPI, as is the case in many normal years”.—[Official Report, Commons, 21/1/13; col. 114.]

So even the Government do not believe that benefits were going to run away ahead of earnings, if they continued to be uprated in line with the CPI.

As has already been pointed out, the differential impact of inflation on different income groups due to big increases in food and utility prices means that people on benefits typically will have been hit harder by rising prices than the people on average earnings with whom Ministers like to compare them. They are also being hurt by cuts in housing benefit and are about to face cutbacks in council tax support. We can already see the consequences in the growing hardship documented by charities and the inexorable rise of the new alternative safety net of food banks.

I wish to refer briefly here to the findings of the independent parliamentary inquiry mentioned by the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds. The inquiry,

“was shocked to hear of instances where children were left destitute and homeless, entirely without institutional support and forced to rely on food parcels or charitable donations”.

The asylum support system, which has failed these children, has not been increased at all this year, not even by the miserable 1% in this Bill.

Percentage increases, or what the noble Lord, Lord German, called a small amount, have to be understood in the context of the value of the benefits themselves. Analysis by my colleague Donald Hirsch at Loughborough University shows how working-age benefit levels are well below the minimum income standards that members of the public believe are necessary to live a decent life. It is sobering to reflect that if I were a single, unemployed person the £71 I would get a week in jobseeker’s allowance is less than a quarter of the allowance I can claim a day for attending your Lordships’ House.

The other fairness argument that has been put was articulated by the Chancellor in his Autumn Statement when he maintained that,

“fairness is also about being fair to the person who leaves home every morning to go out to work and sees that their neighbour is still asleep, living a life on benefits”.—[Official Report, Commons, 5/12/12; col. 669.]

As has already been said, this has encouraged the framing of the debate in the loathsome terms of strivers versus skivers in which striving is misleadingly treated as synonymous with paid work and skiving with out-of-work benefit receipt. With reference to this the Joint Committee on Human Rights, of which I am a member, has reminded the Secretary of State,

“of the importance of fostering respect for the dignity of the vulnerable, including benefits claimants”.

I am very glad that so many noble Lords have made the point about the importance of the language that we use.

I hope in this context that noble Lords will also have regard to a new Joseph Rowntree Foundation study, which debunked the conventional wisdom of an intergenerational culture of worklessness despite a search in the kind of areas most likely to produce it. The researchers found that typically young people,

“aspired to a life that included work”,

The study said:

“Without exception, parents also hoped for better for their children and, where possible, made practical efforts to help them towards employment”.

The noble Lord, Lord Bates and Lord Sheikh, are not in their places, but they might like to read that study because they seem to believe that a dependency culture exists widely in this country. Study after study demonstrates the work commitment of people in receipt of benefits, and I am sure noble Lords would not want to follow the example of the Conservative Back-Bencher in the other place who insisted during the Second Reading debate that,

“there is evidence of a culture of worklessness, whatever the Joseph Rowntree Foundation says”.—[Official Report, Commons, 8/1/13; col. 238.]

And what was the evidence? It was a caller to LBC radio.

A number of pieces of JRF research have also illuminated how the demonising division of the world into strivers and skivers belies the constant movement in and out of work at the bottom of today’s insecure labour market. The assumption that people out of work are skivers ignores the ways in which they strive to get on and to help their children to get on, strive to care for their families and often to improve their local communities, too. I suggest that it is an unfair slight on the good name of many of our fellow citizens to write them off as “shirkers”, “welfare dependents” and undeserving of decent benefits.

It is also unfair to suggest, as did the Secretary of State recently, that many of those in receipt of tax credits are somehow getting what they are not entitled to. This smacked of an attempt to deflect the evidence that around half of those affected by the Bill are in working households. This discrediting of tax credits ignores the ways in which, as has already been noted, they have supported low-income working families whose earnings have been squeezed during the recession, and have probably contributed to the lower than expected level of unemployment. To then compare the increase in benefit levels with these same squeezed wages as justification for this Bill, which also cuts tax credits, is to add insult to injury.

I suggest that the Government’s arguments do not withstand scrutiny. Instead, this is an unnecessary, political bill designed to divide one group of low-income people from another and to court public opinion. The one silver lining is that opinion polls suggest that the public are less enthusiastic than the Chancellor of the Exchequer had perhaps anticipated. By fixing benefit upratings at an arbitrary 1%, regardless of what happens to inflation over the next three years, rather than assessing the situation in the normal way, year by year, the Government are, in the words of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, exposing,

“the poorest in society to inflation risk”,

a point made powerfully by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood.

As even the right honourable John Redwood warned in the other place:

“If inflation suddenly took off”—

I am not sure about “suddenly”, because I have been reading reports about the new Governor of the Bank of England talking about economic policy which may well increase inflation—

“this would become a much tougher and crueller policy”.—[Official Report, Commons, 21/1/13; col. 66.]

It is already a tough and cruel policy. It does not deserve your Lordships’ support.

20:32

[Lord Macdonald of Tradeston]

My Lords, as previous speakers have emphasised, the impact of the Bill must be seen in the context of the radical reforms taking place across the welfare system—reforms which my noble friend Lady Hollis denounced so comprehensively in her coruscating and, indeed, moving speech following the equally persuasive critique of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leicester.

At this late stage with so many criticisms so well expressed, I say simply that disabled people have suffered particular uncertainty and distress. Unfortunately, the changes proposed to their benefits in the Bill add more uncertainty. Yet, when announcing the Bill last year, the Chancellor said that he would exempt some benefits for disabled people and carers from the 1% cap on uprating. Indeed, the exceptions of disability living allowance and the support component of employment and support allowance are to be welcomed as an acknowledgement that disabled people need additional protection in these difficult economic times.

Regrettably, however, these protections do not go far enough to protect disabled people who have collectively experienced an estimated drop in income of £500 million since the emergency Budget of 2010. The reality is that measures in the Bill mean that many disabled people and their carers will experience cuts in the support that is essential if they are to cope with and overcome the barriers and extra costs that they face as a result of their disabilities. A serious concern relates to the changes around the employment and support allowance. The noble Lord, Lord Low of Dalston, has already explained in detail how the disabled will be left worse off. I will not repeat his excellent analysis, except to remind your Lordships that these cuts could cost disabled claimants between £63 and £88 per year.

On previous occasions, I have spoken in the House about the difficulties faced by those who suffer from dystonia. I declare an interest as patron of the Dystonia Society. Dystonia is a neurological condition which affects 70,000 adults and children in the UK. It causes involuntary and sometimes very painful muscle spasms, and is experienced by approximately 20% of disabled people with cerebral palsy. Many sufferers receive employment and support allowance, and for some that is essential support. Dystonia can be unpredictable, with symptoms varying from day to day, which makes regular employment a challenge. However, with adequate support, many will endure their dystonic spasms to prove that they are ready to work at least as well as they can. It seems unfair for the support that they should receive to be further threatened by this Bill. I therefore ask the Minister to consider amending the Bill to ensure that all aspects of the employment and support allowance are uprated to keep pace with inflation. I look forward to his response.

20:36

[Lord Best]

My Lords, my contribution to this debate considers the implications of the Bill for the nation’s housing. However, in the wider debate I align myself firmly with those who believe that there are better ways to reduce the national deficit than by cutting living standards for the poorest. For example, I note the announcement today of the Government’s intention to raise more funds—that is, more than were previously planned—through inheritance tax. I have made my own proposals in this House for other measures that would spare those on the lowest incomes; for example, by reducing the non-means-tested single person’s council tax discount, rather than reducing council tax benefit for current recipients. I do not enter this debate with the belief that cuts to the incomes of the very worst-off are an essential part of deficit reduction.

Turning to housing matters, I shall highlight three ways in which housing will be affected by the 1% limit on benefit increases. First, the new 1% cap on increases to local housing allowances—the housing benefit for private sector tenants—will accentuate the reluctance of landlords in the private rented sector to offer new tenancies or renew existing tenancies to those who rely on benefits. The new cap on rent increases on its own might not look significant but we have seen a succession of limitations on local housing allowances and another one is bound to affect landlord attitudes.

If the landlord puts up the rent by more than the 1% limit for the local housing allowance, the shortfall for the tenant to make up—the gap between the actual rent to be paid and the amount received by way of the allowance—will widen, taking more out of the tenant’s meagre income that is needed for other costs. Of course, as landlords will note, these extra pressures on tenants’ incomes make rent arrears more likely. The last thing that these landlords want is the hassle and expense of evictions. I was glad to note the special help through exemption from the 1% LHA cap for areas with the highest rents. But, because of the reductions to other benefits, a household in London is still likely to lose more than £500. This obviously increases vulnerability to getting into trouble with rental payments.

The Government had hoped that the caps and ceilings they have already applied to their support for housing costs would lead to private landlords lowering rents accordingly. But in most areas—very prominently in London and the south of England—rents have gone up instead. Last year, they increased by 7% in London and 3.4% across England and Wales. Landlords have been able to charge these rents because they can let to tenants who are not in receipt of benefits. Because so many new households in reasonably paid jobs are now unable to buy, landlords in much of the country can choose to take in these better-off homeseekers in place of those who need benefits.

As rents rise and the incomes of those in work do not keep up, more working households are requiring help with housing costs. New figures from the Building and Social Housing Foundation show that the proportion of housing benefits going to people in work is rising significantly, and working households now account for 90% of all new claimants. Caps on local housing allowances, therefore, affect the hard-working families whom the Government want to protect. Discouraging private landlords from letting to those in receipt of benefits means more working households, as well as those without a job, being left with nowhere to go.

This brings me to the second likely effect of the Bill: the adverse impact on social housing. The decline in home ownership, and the resultant ability of private landlords to choose to house those on rather higher incomes, magnifies the importance of the social housing providers. However, I fear that the Bill—not on its own but, as in the private sector, in combination with other reductions in support for tenants—will make things more difficult. A large proportion of housing association and council tenants derive income from benefits due to fall in real value for three years. If the gap between 1% and inflation, particularly inflation of food and fuel prices, is modest, this extra burden may not be too disastrous; if the gap is wide, as the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, has set out, those affected will really be struggling by year three. Even so, the 1% uplift is unlikely to be catastrophic; rather, it is the cumulative impact of this latest cut, on top of earlier reductions in help, which is likely to be pretty devastating for several hundred thousand social housing tenants, and therefore for their landlords, too.

I detect a gradual awakening to the magnitude of the problem that one of these changes will bring. This is the “underoccupation penalty” for those deemed to have a spare room. I named this the “bedroom tax” some 18 months ago and, although these words have been strongly criticised, I stand by them. I will spare your Lordships at this late hour another analysis of the truly awful consequences for 660,000 social housing tenants of this penalty, levy or tax. However, already I note that this measure is, understandably but unfairly, turning tenants against their social landlords, who will be required to collect the bedroom tax next April at an average of £14 per week per household. The anxieties of these housing providers about their ability to extract the money from hundreds of thousands of tenants, some of whom may already be in debt, is compounded by the knowledge that the Bill will mean that the real income of many of their tenants is now destined to fall. Combine this with the impending imposition of council tax at 20% to 30% for the same people, and the financial position of social housing tenants, and therefore of social housing, looks increasingly fragile. Throw in the new regime for paying housing benefit in big monthly sums directly to tenants, who face horrendous choices in juggling debts and spending on very low incomes, instead of the benefit going straight to the landlord, and the risk multiplies that rents do not get paid.

To those social housing tenants struggling with these new burdens, including bedroom tax, council tax, and caps on other benefits, the Bill before us may be the final straw. If landlords take the strain because arrears mount, and evictions and emergency housing cost a fortune, the housing associations and local authorities will have less money to support their local communities; to do all the preventive work that helps families to get on; to regenerate the neighbourhoods where they work; and, which brings me to my final point, to fund their production of additional homes.

The final way in which housing is likely to be affected by the Bill relates directly to the commitment of the Department for Communities and Local Government to addressing the very reason why welfare expenditure on housing costs is so high and is continuing to rise, not fall. This underlying cause of the UK’s appalling housing situation, now affecting almost every household in their 20s and 30s, is the acute shortage of homes that they can afford. This pushes up prices and rents, absorbing disproportionate percentages of income in return for questionable quality.

Housing shortages push up the welfare bill and mean taxpayers having to subsidise more people and to higher levels than in our competitor countries. Each year, the UK’s national housing deficit—the accumulating gap between extra homes required and new homes built—is growing by more than 100,000. This has to be reversed and DCLG Ministers are determined to get more homes built. That policy addresses the cause of rising housing benefit costs rather than the Department for Work and Pensions’ capping of benefits, which treats only the symptoms and simply penalises the victims of housing scarcity. Regrettably, the Bill will make the task of DCLG Ministers more difficult.

Private sector housebuilding must be boosted, but even if housebuilders got back to building at the levels of the boom years before the credit crunch of 2008, we would still be constructing far fewer homes than the number of households formed annually and still be adding to the national housing deficit each year. It is essential that the social housing sector massively boosts its output. I declare my interests as chairman of the Hanover Housing Association and president of the Local Government Association and stress the value of councils themselves building more homes once again.

With a steady source of secure income from their rent rolls, social landlords can borrow at low interest rates and can grow significantly with only modest capital subsidies. The disruption caused by the forthcoming succession of cuts to support for their tenants will hold back this potential for growth. Social landlords are making much increased provision to cover expected rent arrears. This diminishes the resources available for new work. The loss of income also reduces the confidence of their private sector lenders and deters ambitious development programmes which the nation desperately needs.

This is not a good Bill for housing. Directly in the private rented sector and indirectly but very significantly in the social housing sector, this latest instalment in the cumulative impact on very low-income households is likely to mean not just personal hardship for tenants but a negative influence on the whole housing scene and an undermining of other government departments’ genuine efforts to tackle not the symptoms but the cause of this country’s immense housing problems.

20:47

[Baroness Massey of Darwen]

My Lords, speaking at this point is always something of a challenge as most things have already been very effectively said. I shall be brief but I wish to build on the many brilliant and incisive speeches that have made reference to child poverty. I shall focus my remarks on the potential impact of the Bill on children and I shall conclude that the Bill needs a complete reworking.

I am aware that the Government wish to deliver a new welfare system. The question is: why punish children? Have we not learnt from all evidence, including recent significant reports, that every intervention with young children is the greatest safeguard we have for saving money in the long term, with reductions in criminal and other risky behaviour and greater achievement by children as they grow up? The noble Baroness, Lady Gardner of Parkes, mentioned economic sense. Surely giving children all the help they can get is economic sense. I submit that it is inaccurate and disrespectful to blame child vulnerability on parents who are deliberately out of work or addicted to drugs and alcohol. These are not the majority of parents.

I recall the responses to the Autumn Statement and to the Bill by charities, particularly those engaged in fighting child poverty. The Children’s Society urged the Government to reconsider the Bill, stating that, if it were passed, millions of children and families would suffer. The Child Poverty Action Group has said that the Bill will increase both absolute and relative child poverty and that the precepts of the Bill are “indefensible”.

I remember, too, as a trustee of of UNICEF UK, report cards on child well-being across the world’s richest countries—the result of research carried out for UNICEF by the Innocenti Research Centre. Report Card 7, published in 2007, provided a picture of child well-being across six dimensions, including material well-being, health and education. Britain did badly across the board. Report Card 10, on measuring child poverty and which covered the period up to 2009, indicated the relationship between the proportion of GDP spent on children and its consequences, and showed that policy choices by Governments significantly affected the lives of the poorest children. As to the UK, the report concluded that even though the UK had missed its own targets to reduce child poverty to 1.7 million by 2010, it had one of the largest reductions in child poverty. This was attributed to the previous Government’s focus on increasing household income.

The research and concerns that I have mentioned, and there are many others, speak for themselves. Why are the Government seemingly ignoring the evidence base for child poverty, ignoring those organisations that work with children and families, and ignoring the calls of families themselves who are worried about how they will feed, clothe and maintain the welfare of their children? Are all these people wrong? I think not.

Barnardo’s, as noble Lords will know, works directly with young people and their families through a network of services across the UK. Barnardo’s states that the Bill will impose real-terms cuts to the incomes of highly vulnerable and disadvantaged families who are receiving in-work or out-of-work benefits. Many such people are in work but on low incomes. The policy will punish children by trapping them in poverty. It is naive to berate certain groups for pushing children into poverty. We need to look at the true, broader picture. For young people aged between 16 and 24 who are seeking jobs, the allowance is £56.25 a week, and many vulnerable young people, including those leaving care, have no family to support them. How are they to cope?

It has been estimated and admitted by the Minister after the Second Reading debate in another place that 200,000 children will be pushed into poverty by the impact of this Bill—a figure mentioned in previous speeches. This is despite the fact that the Government are legally committed to meeting the targets set out in the Child Poverty Act, as my noble friend Lady Lister of Burtersett, has said. If we take the policies introduced by the Government since they came into office, it can clearly be shown that the poorest half of the population has become poorer, with the poorest losing out the most. At present, 3.6 million live in poverty. The Child Poverty Act places a duty on the Government to end child poverty by 2020. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, however, predicts that by 2020-21 absolute and relative child poverty will be 23% and 24% respectively; therefore, a further 1 million children will have been pushed into poverty by 2020.

The Government decided to cut benefits by linking them to consumer price index, rather than retail price index, inflation. If the Government were to introduce the second of these—the RPI—the poverty figure would grow. Families are suffering from the changes to the hours rules for working tax credit, from recent cuts to housing benefits and from the time-limiting of employment and support allowance for people who are too ill to work—to name but a few issues. In addition, the localisation of support for people on low incomes who pay council tax will be introduced. This will reduce the budgets of many families on out-of-work benefits. The abolition of the Social Fund and its replacement with local schemes seems very likely to be damaging to vulnerable families.

I could go on about reductions in childcare tax credit, increases in VAT, the tax credit for babies under one year-old, the increase-in-earnings taper of working tax credit, caps in housing benefit and the family element of child tax credit, which has been abolished for middle earners. Others have discussed other inequities very comprehensively.

I return to my primary concern about the Bill: it will be detrimental to the well-being of children, especially vulnerable children. The link between benefits and inflation should be preserved; benefits should increase by at least the level of the consumer price index; or the most vulnerable children should be protected by removing from the Bill child benefit, child tax credit and the child elements of universal credit.

The Bill needs a complete reworking. Let us hope that we can do that in Committee. I do not think that children should suffer the potential for greater child poverty. As I said earlier, any deterioration in child health and well-being will cost us dear in future. All children are the future and we jeopardise that at our peril.

20:55

[Baroness Sherlock]

My Lords, this has been an extraordinary debate. I hope that someone gives the proceedings to the Prime Minister to read. With it, they could give him a DVD of his pre-election appearance on the “Andrew Marr Show” in 2010 when he told the nation that he wanted to,

“take the whole country with me. I don't want to leave anyone behind. The test of a good society is you look after the elderly, the frail, the vulnerable, the poorest in our society. And that test is even more important in difficult times, when difficult decisions have to be taken, than it is in better times”.

We have heard many compelling arguments today against this Bill but I suggest that that statement from the right honourable David Cameron is one of the best. How far this Government have come from the days when its leader promised to protect the most vulnerable families in financially difficult times. Perhaps coalition has not tempered him after all.

My noble friend Lord McKenzie destroyed the case for this Bill in his powerful opening speech and many noble Lords have backed him up since then. Precious few speakers have disagreed with him. The noble Lord, Lord Bates, did his best, as did the noble Lord, Lord Sheikh, and they both stressed the need for fairness as cuts were being made. Coincidentally, that point was also made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, when he introduced the Autumn Statement on 5 December 2012 when this Bill was announced. He spoke of the need to find savings in a way that was fair. He said that we need,

“to have a welfare system that is fair to the working people who pay for it”.—[Official Report, Commons, 5/12/12; col. 877.]

Just in case the point was not clear, the Guardian reports the Chancellor telling the “Today” programme:

“It is unfair that people listening to this programme going out to work see the neighbour next door with the blinds down because they are on benefits”.

So there we have it: this Bill is intended to penalise the workless in order to be fair to working people. What we have heard today has exposed that statement as being as misleading as it is disgraceful. We are not in a position where the country is populated by workshy people, living in houses where they claim £80,000 in housing benefit a year. The noble Baroness, Lady Gardner of Parkes, may want to know that in fact the limit for housing benefit is £400 a week.

As many noble Lords have noted, contrary to what the Government would have us believe, this Bill leaves behind some of the hardest-working members of our society; 68% of those hit are in work. The Bill will take an average of £165 a year from the pockets of 7 million working households. The Autumn Statement means that the real income of a one-earner working family is set to fall by £534 a year on average in 2015-16. That is without the average £14 a week in bedroom tax coming over the horizon for a third of social sector tenants, or the loss of council tax benefit of at least £5 a week for poor families.

The noble Lord, Lord German, said it is better to take small sums from a large number of people. They may be small sums to some people but I warrant that £10 a week will be sorely missed in those households. The Government’s whole argument about the need to incentivise and reward work is, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds said, smoke. In fact I would go further than that. It is really music hall smoke and mirrors—the old-fashioned kind, where you direct the spotlight at the unemployed man in the front row while the accomplice goes round the back and picks the pockets of 40,000 soldiers, 300,000 nurses, 150,000 teachers, 510,000 shop assistants and more than 1 million administrators. This really is playing politics with the lives of hard-pressed families.

What really will be the effects of the Bill? We have heard only too clearly in the moving descriptions of the impact on the most vulnerable from the noble Lord, Lord Adebowale, and in the account from the noble Lord, Lord Best, of the problems being caused to so many low-income and middle-income families by the changes to housing support. According to Crisis, there has been a 22% increase in the number of people approaching their local authority as homeless in the past two years. Rough sleeping rose by 23% last year in England. The changes already made, and those coming through universal credit, have aggravated the problems caused by the serious shortage of affordable accommodation, as described by my noble friend Lord Whitty. This Bill will play its part by pushing low-income families further into a series of impossible choices. This point was made clearly by my noble friend Lord Touhig in a very comprehensive and powerful speech. Should they pay for food or heating; pay the bills or the rent?

Once again, as we heard from my noble friends Lady Donaghy and Lady Lister, there will be a disproportionate impact on women and children. Recent House of Commons Library research has shown that changes to tax and benefits in the Autumn Statement will hit women four times as hard. Of the £1.065 billion from new direct tax, tax credit and benefit changes in 2014-15 that the Library analysed in the Autumn Statement, an estimated 81%—£867 million—will come from women. This Bill is a key culprit. The list of benefits to be hit even includes statutory maternity pay. I do not think that we would have guessed that from the Chancellor’s description of the Bill’s rationale. I suppose that if I were about to give birth I might well have my blinds drawn at 8 am, but I do not think that was quite what the Chancellor had in mind.

It is not just mothers but children who are being hit. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leicester, in a very powerful and impressive speech, reminded us that we are now in the shocking situation of being on course, according to the IFS and CPAG, to see a million more children in relative poverty by 2020. If the noble Lord, Lord German, thinks this poverty measure favours his Government, I would hate to think what would happen to child poverty with one that did not. I would be grateful if the Minister would tell the House how the Bill fits with section 14 of the coalition agreement, which states:

“We will maintain the goal of ending child poverty in the UK by 2020”.

Given the points made on this by my noble friends Lady Lister and Lady Massey of Darwen, what measures do the Government propose to bring forward to compensate for the effects of the Bill?

We have heard lots of figures today but if we remember no other statistic, let us remember this one from the Children’s Society: 11.5 million children will be adversely affected by the Bill. We heard very descriptively from my noble friend Lady Massey of Darwen about the risks posed to children. As Save the Children noted, the Bill will render parents less able to afford the basics in the short term, and will seriously limit the life chances of their children in the long term.

We also heard very powerful arguments from the noble Baroness, Lady Grey-Thompson, the noble Lord, Lord Low, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds, my noble friend Lord Macdonald of Tradeston, and others, about the impact of the Bill on disabled people. The Disability Benefits Consortium states that since the emergency Budget of 2010, disabled people have suffered a £500 million drop in their income. The Government tried originally to claim that they were protecting disabled people by exempting some benefits for disabled people and carers from the reduced uprating. Mr Osborne said in the Autumn Statement debate:

“We will support the vulnerable, so carers’ benefits and disability benefits, including disability elements of tax credits, will be increased in line with inflation”.—[Official Report, Commons, 5/12/12; col. 879.]

The truth was expressed succinctly by Richard Hawkes, the chief executive of Scope, who said:

“This bill doesn’t protect disabled people. In fact, it cuts support for the many disabled people who are looking for work”.

I think that the Minister has some explaining to do.

We are entitled to judge the Government by their own criteria. Has the Prime Minister passed his own test of creating a good society that does not leave behind the poorest in difficult times? When we are debating a Bill which, as my noble friend Lord McKenzie pointed out, means the unemployed will see their JSA rise by 71 pence a week while 8,000 people get an average tax cut of £2,000 per week, noble Lords may judge for themselves. Has the Chancellor passed his own test about being fair to working people? I think we know the answer to that, as well. In the Bill those working people are being asked to pay the price not only of the Government’s indefensible priorities but of the failure of their economic policy.

I was glad that the Minister acknowledged that unemployment is still a problem. The money this Bill will save will be about the same as the increase in social security spending resulting from the forecast rise in unemployment just between the Budget last year and the Autumn Statement. The pain will be felt by millions of households who are already close to the edge. The noble Lord, Lord German, asked us all where we would get the money from. As my noble friend Lady Hollis pointed out in her extraordinarily compelling speech, at heart the issue is simple. The Government have a choice and are choosing to cut payments to struggling households in order to fund a £3 billion tax cut for the highest earners in the country. I look forward to hearing the Minister defend that choice.

21:04

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who have taken part in today’s debate. It is an issue about which all participants feel passionately and I can well understand why. I will try to respond to as many questions as possible, but let me begin by reminding the House of the purpose of the Bill. As my noble friend Lady Stowell pointed out in her opening speech, this Government inherited an exceptional fiscal challenge. The financial crisis of 2008-09 resulted in the largest deficit since the Second World War and the UK experienced one of the deepest recessions of any major economy. Even before the recession began, the UK had the highest structural deficit of any country in the G7. This level of public spending was simply not sustainable. There are still tough choices to make. The savings from this Bill provide a significant contribution towards delivering the savings needed to ensure that spending is on a sustainable path. It is, of course, never an easy decision to take action on welfare spending and I understand only too well that the welfare system provides vital support to millions of people. I also understand that while benefit rates will rise in cash terms, they will be fall in real terms.

In these tough economic times, people have seen significant restraints in their pay across the public and private sectors. With welfare expenditure accounting for £1 in every £4 spent, it is simply unrealistic to think we can achieve the savings we need without taking further action on welfare. We have already had to take tough decisions on welfare spending in this Parliament, yet despite these, more than £200 billion was spent on welfare last year. Under the previous Government, spending for working-age people and children increased by around 60%—equivalent to an extra £1,400 cost per household in Great Britain. This is the context against which this Bill must be judged.

However, in making what we believe are necessary limits in welfare spending, I cannot stress enough that our motivation is not, to quote various noble Lords today, to “demonise”, to “stigmatise”, to brand the poor as undeserving, to impose a harsh ideology on them or to divide and rule. It is simply to help—albeit painfully—provide a sustainable platform for the public finances and the economy going forward. This is something that every citizen of the UK will benefit from in the longer term.

The right reverend Prelate, the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds, asked me for an assurance or statement that the vast majority of benefits claimants were not skivers. I am extremely happy to give such an assurance. Nobody in your Lordships’ House believes that to be the case; all of us know only too many people who are working extremely hard to make ends meet. I particularly acknowledge the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Donaghy, about people on low incomes often having several jobs and still struggling to make ends meet. I acknowledge that that is the reality for many people in Britain today.

We have to return to the main point. If the savings from this Bill were not delivered here, they would have to be found somewhere else. That would mean additional pressure on other public services. To put this figure into context: £1.9 billion is equivalent to the salaries of about 45,000 nurses or around 40,000 teachers. To put it another way: it is equivalent to 500,000 primary school places. Anybody opposing the Bill needs to explain where the money is coming from.

[Baroness Hollis of Heigham]

My Lords, did the Minister and his colleagues make the same consideration when they decided to take £3 billion in tax relief and give it back to millionaires? Will that money not also have to be found for the 40,000 nurses and so on? Is he about to tell us?

[Lord Newby]

Do not worry, my Lords, I am coming to that. The implications of some of the speeches we have heard today are that we should not be making cuts at all, that no civilised society would, even in today’s circumstances, reduce public expenditure. For those who take that view, all I can say is that we simply cannot possibly agree. For those who accept that we should be reducing the deficit but disagree with these changes, my challenge is and remains this: what would they cut instead? The noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, was clear that she would reduce payments to pensioners—

[Baroness Hollis of Heigham]

My Lords, what I said was that I would scrutinise the tax relief available for the building up of pensions which costs £32 billion, of which at least £8 billion comes from the fact that people on higher rate incomes get higher rate tax relief. That is what I said I would scrutinise: not money from pensioners, but from the way that pension savings are artificially supported by tax relief, two-thirds of which goes to the better off.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I am extremely grateful to the noble Baroness for correcting me. In that case, and in view of her earlier intervention, I think that what she and the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, are saying is that the money will be raised from the millionaires who, in their view, are getting a windfall benefit of £3 billion. I believe that that is what both noble Baronesses have said. But it is clear that either they have not read or they do not believe the report from the Office for Budget Responsibility which suggests that the impact of reducing the higher rate of tax from 50% to 40% is probably £100 million and may be negative. The Government therefore simply do not accept the figures which have been quoted against us. The figure of £1 billion a year to which I think the noble Baronesses have referred was based on an HMRC static comparison. What we know only too well is that given the chance of paying 40% or 50%, the rich—surprise, surprise—change the way in which they order their affairs. There is no pot of gold through a 50% tax rate. My view is that, frankly, the Opposition are all confusion about this.

In the Second Reading debate on the Bill in another place, the right honourable David Miliband was widely praised for saying:

“The Government have projected the cost of all benefits, all tax credits and all tax relief for the next few years, and I am happy to debate priorities within that envelope. I will take the envelope that they have set, but let us have a proper debate about choices, not the total sum—a priorities debate, not an affordability debate”.—[Official Report, Commons, 8/1/13; col. 217.]

The Government have set out their priorities, but frankly, Labour has not begun to set its out. I do not know whether the Opposition agree with David Miliband. I certainly do not know, within the context of overall expenditure cuts, what their priorities will be. We have decided to protect pensioners as a top priority; does Labour agree? We have decided to take millions of people out of income tax as an incentive to work; does Labour agree? We have decided that people on high earnings should no longer get child benefit; does Labour agree? If it does not—and on some of those points, I simply do not know whether it does or not—what other cuts is it proposing in order to keep within the Government’s spending envelope, or within the terms of its own Fiscal Responsibility Act 2010 which committed the Government to halving government borrowing by the 2013-14 financial year. We look forward to hearing the answers, but it is clear that we are not going to hear them today.

[Baroness Lister of Burtersett]

My Lords, the noble Lord made the point about raising people out of tax, but in my speech I said that that is the least good way of targeting help on low-income families. It is a much worse way than, say, improving child benefit. Can he explain why the Government think that it is better to put money into personal tax allowances rather than protecting the incomes of people who are too poor to pay tax?

21:14

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, we think it is a basic principle that people on very low incomes should not be paying income tax. It may be a difference of view between this side of the House and the other side, but this is the view that we have taken. This is the policy that we are introducing and we will continue with it.

A number of noble Lords asked why we are proceeding via a legislative route. We believe it is only right that we set out our plans in advance and give as much certainty as possible. The Bill gives certainty on further savings, making a crucial contribution to our plans and helping us to maintain credibility, not least in the markets. We have to keep reminding ourselves that even a one percentage point rise in effective mortgage rates would add £12 billion a year to households’ mortgage interest payments, costing the average household with a mortgage around £1,000 a year. Given the current level of the deficit, such an interest rate rise, in the absence of a credible fiscal policy, is perfectly plausible. The IMF made this element clear when it said in October:

“To anchor market expectations, policymakers need to specify adequately detailed medium-term plans for lowering debt ratios, which must be backed by binding legislation or fiscal frameworks”.

This Bill takes us in that direction.

A number of noble Lords asked what will happen if inflation soars. First, the independent MPC remains committed to maintaining price stability, which is defined by the Government as an inflation target of 2%, as measured by the 12-month increase in the CPI. Although inflation is forecast by the MPC and the Office for Budget Responsibility to be above the 2% target in the near term, it is then forecast to fall back towards the target in the medium term. It is right that the Government make plans based on the best available forecast. However, we know that these are forecasts and targets and we are aware that external factors and unforeseen events can produce a different outcome.

We always monitor the rate of inflation and the impact that it has on households and the wider economy. That is why, in the Autumn Statement, we took action to help households with the cost of living, including cancelling the January fuel duty rise, providing funding for local authorities to freeze council tax and announcing a further increase in the personal allowance. We will continue to monitor the rate of inflation closely, based on monthly data on consumer price inflation published by the Office for National Statistics, and the impact that it has on the cost of living for families. This will continue to be a key consideration for this Government’s policies in the future.

Many noble Lords raised concerns over the impact of this Bill on poverty, particularly child poverty. I will start by saying that any two-dimensional measure for poverty, which looks at relative income only, is not an adequate way to measure progress on poverty. The most recent decrease in child poverty—a fall of 300,000 in the number of children in relative poverty in 2010—was due to the recession causing a fall in median income and pushing the poverty line down. That is clearly absurd, which is why we are consulting on a better measure of child poverty, one that includes income but goes beyond it to tackle root causes; for example educational failure, problem debt or worklessness.

In terms of how we tackle this issue, it is worth while looking at the success of the previous Government in dealing with child poverty. In the period 2003-04 to 2010, £170 billion was spent on tax credits but there was little or no progress in reducing the levels of child poverty. We in this Government want to look at some of these basic issues around educational failure, problem debt and worklessness. We recognise, as I am sure all noble Lords do, that education is one of the key factors in getting poor children out of poverty. That is why this Government are committed to providing additional funding for disadvantaged pupils through the pupil premium, which will rise by £2.5 billion a year by 2014-15. We are also spending £200 million extra in universal credit to support families with childcare costs. For the first time, this support will be made available to families who work fewer than 16 hours per week, which will mean that 100,000 more working families will be helped with their childcare costs. All two year-olds from low-income households will be able to access 15 hours per week of early education, starting with the poorest 20% in 2013 and extending it to 40% in 2014.

Debt is also a major problem for poor families, who not only take out debt but often take it out at extortionate rates of interest. That is why we are putting in place stronger, more responsive regulation of unsecured lending and other forms of consumer credit to ensure that borrowers are protected and can be confident of getting a fair deal, and why we have given the Financial Conduct Authority power to regulate loan sharks and cap interest from payday lenders for the first time.

However, work is the best route out of poverty. As my noble friend Lady Stowell set out at the start of this debate, the Government are reforming the welfare system to improve incentives for individuals to enter work. Universal credit will not only improve the financial incentives offered for people who want to work but will simplify the benefits system. Replacing the main benefits with one single payment and removing the complex system of hours rules and different tapers that currently exist means that claimants will understand that they are better off getting a job and increasing their hours. Under universal credit, 3.1 million households will benefit by an average of £39 a week and up to 250,000 children will be taken out of poverty. Any household whose migration to universal credit is initiated by the DWP will receive transitional protection, and there will be no cash losers from the policy.

A number of noble Lords have spoken eloquently about issues facing the disabled. I repeat that we have protected those benefits designed to reflect the additional costs that disabled people face as a result of their disability. Of course, as we have heard, this does not mean that no disabled people will be affected. In common with other working-age recipients, many disabled people will also be claiming benefits that include help towards everyday living expenses or housing costs, but those benefits for the extra costs of disability are protected. I am afraid that I cannot give the noble Lord, Lord Macdonald of Tradeston, the assurance that he is seeking in respect of ESA, but I suspect he is not too surprised about that.

Government policy towards disability is not limited to benefit levels. We will shortly be publishing the most comprehensive analysis of available data about disability since 2005, entitled Fulfilling Potential: Building a Deeper Understanding of Disability in the UK Today. This will help inform the next stage of our disability strategy: the development of actions, outcomes and indicators. It will help increase public understanding, change attitudes and enhance the commitment to improving the lives of disabled people. We are setting up a new disability action alliance, bringing together organisations of disabled people and organisations from across government and the public, private, voluntary and community sectors. This will take forward practical actions at both the national and local level, making a real difference to the lives of disabled people. We will publish a further strategic document and action plan to include the alliance actions as well as actions across government in the spring.

There have been a number of questions about the cumulative impact of the various changes that have been made in recent years and why the Government have not produced an analysis of these to the extent that people would like. Looking at the cumulative impact of tax, tax credit and benefit reforms since the June 2010 Budget, the top 20% of households continue to make the greatest contribution towards reducing the deficit as a percentage of their income and benefits in kind from public services. So far, HMT’s analysis has not included universal credit. Separate analysis shows that three-quarters of the gainers from UC are in the bottom 40% of the income distribution.

As noble Lords know, the analysis in this area is extremely complicated, and breaking down the results in detail is extraordinary difficult to do accurately, if not impossible. Similarly, not all policy changes can be modelled robustly, and the IFS has acknowledged that the effects of dynamic reforms such as those to disability living allowance and housing benefit cannot be precisely modelled. In these circumstances, it would be simply irresponsible for the Government to do so.

I shall try to respond to a number of specific questions as quickly as I might. The noble Lord, Lord German, asked me to commit the Government to no further welfare cuts in this Parliament. I remind him that at the Autumn Statement 2012, the Government said that detailed spending plans for 2015 and 2016 would be set in the first half of this year. We cannot prejudge the outcome. By “first half of this year”, we mean the back half of the first half of this year.

The noble Lord, Lord Bates, referred to the living wage. The Government support the idea of the living wage. Civil servants are paid the living wage; and contractors, for example at the DWP, are paid the living wage. My guess is that the living wage will increasingly become the norm, particularly in London.

The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Ripon and Leeds asked about asylum seekers. Asylum-seeker benefit rates are a matter for the Home Office and are not within the scope of the Bill. I will draw his remarks to the attention of my colleagues in the Home Office, because I know that the right reverend Prelate feels strongly about that matter.

The noble Lords, Lord Kirkwood, Lord Whitty and Lord Best, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Donaghy and Lady Lister, in various ways talked about how the growing disparity between benefits and earnings impacts among other things on the housing market. There are very long-term, secular changes in the relationship between benefits and earnings and, as the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, said, there are long-term failings in the operation of the housing market. We will have many opportunities to discuss these, no doubt in Committee but more generally in your Lordships’ House. I am sorry that I have not been able to deal with them tonight. There are quite a number of issues that noble Lords have raised this evening that I have been unable to cover, and I look forward to debating them in Committee.

Welfare spending accounts for more than a quarter of all public spending. In these touch economic times, when people across the public and private sectors have seen significant restraint in their pay, this Bill finds the right balance between finding savings from welfare while ensuring that benefits and tax credits continue to be increased in cash terms. I commend the Bill to the House.

Bill read a second time and committed to a Committee of the Whole House.

House adjourned at 9.27 pm.